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While watching the first half of the game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, this thought crossed my mind – the Bengals are one of those teams that is really aggravating. They have loads of talent on their roster but not much character. They don’t play well together as a team because they have a bunch of individuals who are in it for themselves and don’t play for each other, but are good enough to put out a strong effort against a team with one win in order to avoid embarrassment. And, of course, they have to pound their chests and celebrate every play they make whether it’s a big one or a 2 yard gain or on defense, a tackle 20 yards downfield. The Bills, on the other hand, don’t have a lot of overwhelming talent, but even in this losing season getting a good effort out of them was never a problem. Even through all the adversity this year they’ve played for each other, hung together as a team and never lost faith. They didn’t do much right in the first half in this game, turning the ball over, not stopping the run again and generally not stopping anything on defense. They fell behind 28-7, and after a gift of time from Referee Ed Hochuli’s crew right at the end of the half gave the Bengals a chance to kick a field goal, looked hopelessly out of it, being behind 31-14.

However, as they’ve done all year, the Bills hung together, and exploded in the second half to shut out Cinci on defense while outscoring them 35-0 to pull out an unlikely win that might be that elusive “signature” win that propels them to more success as this season winds down. Ryan Fitzpatrick has had highs and lows in pretty much every game since he took over the starting quarterback job, but never have they been as well-defined as they were in the 2 halves of this game. He threw a pair of miserable interceptions in the first half but looked like Peyton Manning in the second, directing 4 scoring drives, 3 of which ended with TD passes to Stevie Johnson, the team’s emerging young star. Fred Jackson was steady throughout the game, rushing for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the defense, porous throughout the first half, held the Bengals scoreless in the second. Even when the Bills allowed the Bengals to keep drives alive in the fourth quarter by allowing 2 fourth down conversions, it wasn’t a terrible thing, as they forced Cinci to use a lot of time while earning every yard. Coach Chan Gailey has made a lot of mistakes and errors in judgment this year, but he’s done a good job of keeping the players focused and believing in his plan, and it’s great to see him rewarded with a couple of wins in a row.  The Bills face a tough task in hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers next week, and will have to somehow figure out how to avoid the turnovers they’ve experienced all year if they are to have any chance to win. One other thing Gailey has certainly accomplished so far this year – has the Bills’ offense been this entertaining at any point in the last decade? They are a long way off from having the players on their roster they’ll need to compete at a championship level, especially on defense. But they’re building a strong foundation for future success, and it’s nice to know that when that success comes, there is ample leadership in the locker room to keep the team grounded and maintain a high level of accountability among the players. In other words, they won’t be paper tigers like the Bengals.

Week 10 was the worst week yet for predictions, as I wound up below the .500 mark with 6 right and 8 wrong. Here are some comments made on the games picked last week:

Lions vs Bills – “I’m going to resist the temptation to pick Buffalo”. I did resist, and of course the Bills won.

Texans vs Jaguars – “Jags’ coach Del Rio always has his team motivated and playing well in important division games”. – I picked Houston and Del Rio’s motivated Jags won.

Cowboys vs Giants – “Cowboys should get somewhat of a bounce from the coaching change” – they did, and won, but I picked the Giants.

Patriots vs Steelers – “Normally the Pats are the type of team that rebounds strongly from a thrashing like they took last week” – yes, indeed they are, and they beat the Steelers. Unfortunately I picked Pittsburgh.

The moral of the story is sometimes you’re better off going with your initial gut reaction. For the season, my record now stands at 81 right and 62 wrong. Here are the week eleven choices:

Chicago at Miami – this week’s Thursday night game. The Dolphins lost 2 quarterbacks last week, and have a short week to get ready with third-stringer Tyler Thigpen. Although I think Thigpen will play well, I also think the Bears are beginning to get on a roll. Chicago wins a close, low scoring game.

Buffalo at Cincinnati – the Bills finally won last week, and amazingly the Bengals have only 2 wins this year. Cincinnati is a huge disappointment overall, but I think they’ll squeeze out a win at home.

Baltimore at Carolina – on paper this is a mismatch, and I believe the Ravens will win, but it may not be as one-sided of a game as the team’s records would indicate.

Detroit at Dallas – the Cowboys’ win over the Giants tells me one thing – that the Cowboy players, and interim coach Jason Garrett, should all be ashamed of the effort they gave Wade Phillips all year. Neither of these teams will have their starting QB, and even though I’d love to see the Lions win, I have to go with Dallas at home.

Cleveland at Jacksonville – both of these teams have overachieved all year. I’ll go with the Jaguars at home as they try to stay relevant in a tough division race.

Arizona at Kansas City – the Chiefs were brought back down to earth in Denver last week, but they’ll rebound at home and stay alive in what is now a tight AFC West race.

Green Bay at Minnesota – at his weekly press conferences, Brett Favre sounds like he really doesn’t want to be playing any longer, but I would expect his enthusiasm level to be high for this game – another chance at sticking it to his old team. Green Bay has been decimated by injuries, and although they are a better team I believe the Vikings will win this game.

Houston at New York Jets – the Texans look more and more like they will be also-rans again this season. The Jets have pulled out a couple of close wins on the road the last 2 weeks, and I believe they will ride that momentum to a big win here.

Oakland at Pittsburgh – the Raiders upset the Steelers last season and are a better team this year, but Pittsburgh will be sky high after losing at home to the Patriots last Sunday night. The Steeler defense will rebound and shut down Oakland and win this game pretty handily.

Washington at Tennessee – any thoughts that the Redskins were still viable contenders got squashed by Mike Vick and the Eagles on Monday night. Tennessee has quarterback issues but they can run the ball and should win this game at home, with Randy Moss having a bigger impact in the passing game this week also.

Seattle at New Orleans – the Saints are over their early season Super Bowl hangover now, and will put this game away early against a Seattle team that doesn’t travel well.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco – despite a disappointing start, I believe the 49ers still have a shot at the playoffs in the weak NFC West division. More importantly, the Niners still believe it too. Tampa will give them a fight but I think San Francisco is beginning to put it together and will win this game.

Atlanta at St. Louis – the Rams are a little too young for this situation. Atlanta needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the surging Saints in their division race and can’t afford to get tripped up here. I’ll pick the Falcons on the road in a close game.

Indianapolis at New England – Peyton Manning has been getting it done this year with smoke, mirrors and practice squad players, but the Pats will win here. Foxborough has always been Manning’s personal House of Horrors, even when he’s had his full complement of players on offense.

New York Giants at Philadelphia – the cream has risen to the top in the NFC East, and it’s turned out to be these 2 teams. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, especially the matchup of Vick vs. the Giants’ defense. I’ll go with the Eagles at home, riding the momentum of their big Monday night win over Washington.

Denver at San Diego – Phillip Rivers has had an amazing season passing the ball for the Chargers, and it looks like they are starting their annual late-season push to the playoffs. They’ll continue that push with a win at home over the unpredictable Broncos.