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The formula for winning games for the Buffalo Bills proved itself again in their prime time AFC East battle with Miami on Thursday night. That formula is – when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t turn the ball over, they win. Fitzpatrick has certainly had better games statistically this season, but against the Dolphins he protected the ball, and did just enough to keep the Bills from handing another game over to their opponent. The offensive effort looked a lot like the Bills’ game against Houston a couple weeks ago, with drives stalling and the team settling for Rian Lindell field goals. C.J. Spiller ran and caught the ball for 130 combined yards and sparked the Bills’ offense all night with Fred Jackson out. Fitzpatrick only threw for 160 yards, but kept drives alive with timely passes to Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler, and helped the defense out by not giving the ball away.

The difference this time was that the Bills’ defense played possibly its’ best game of the season, holding the Fish to 184 total yards of offense, including only 60 on the ground, and recording 3 sacks against rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. The sacks came from Mario Williams, who has come on since his wrist surgery, Shawne Merriman and Kyle Moore, who is making a case to stay in the lineup when Mark Anderson and Chris Kelsay return from injuries. The biggest accomplishment for the defense was that there weren’t any breakdowns resulting in big plays in either the passing or running game. The secondary covered receivers well for the most part, and got 2 big interceptions, from Jairus Byrd and Bryan Scott, to seal the win. It was a game the Bills won because they finally “finished”, as coach Chan Gailey has said.

The special teams had a Jeckyl and Hyde night, providing the team’s only touchdown on Leodis McKelvin’s 79 yard punt return, but allowing Miami’s Marcus Thigpen to return a kickoff for a score. Rookie punter Shawn Powell, however, tilted the scale to the positive side for the bomb squads by placing a punt out of bounds at the one yard line at a critical point of the game. The Bills face another rookie signal caller in their next game, in 10 days, when their improving defense tests the Colts’ Andrew Luck. Unlike Tannehill, Luck isn’t playing like a rookie, so the unit will have to be ready for another tough contest, this time in front of a hostile crowd in Indianapolis.

For week 10 in picking NFL games, I wound up with 8 winners and 6 losers. I counted the tie game between the Rams and 49ers as a loss, figuring that since the game didn’t have a winner, I didn’t pick a winner. I now have picked 77 winners, against 40 losers, for the year. Here are my week 11 choices:

Miami at Buffalo – the Dolphins, like every other AFC East team, have dominated the Bills recently, and will be anxious to redeem themselves after getting thrashed by Tennessee on Sunday. Still, I’ll pick the Bills to take some positive vibes from their close loss to New England and win a division game at home.

Arizona at Atlanta – the Cardinals have been fading for awhile, and they now have to face a Falcon team hurting from its’ first loss of the year. Atlanta wins easily.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – the Buccaneers are a solid team this year, and I’ll pick them to control Cam Newton enough to win a big division game.

Cleveland at Dallas – the Browns have been battling hard all year, but this should be a relatively easy Cowboy win at home, as Dallas climbs back into the playoff race.

Green Bay at Detroit – this has been a disappointing year for the Lions and their disappointment will continue as the Packers win this game.

Jacksonville at Houston – strange things can happen in division games, but the Texans’ defense so far outclasses the weak Jaguar offensive attack that Houston should win this game handily.

Cincinnati at Kansas City – the Chief defense should keep this game close, but the Bengals will scratch out a win on the road, with the Andy Dalton to A.J. Green passing combination playing a key role.

New York Jets at St. Louis – the Jets are reeling, and their Sanchez/Tebow QB controversy isn’t going away any time soon. The young Rams are good enough to beat them, and will at home in a game that may not even be close.

Philadelphia at Washington – neither of these teams has distinguished itself lately, but the Redskins seem to be at least moving forward. Washington wins at home.

New Orleans at Oakland – the Saints, despite their standing of having the overall worst defense in the NFL, are getting a sniff of thinking they have a chance to sneak into the playoff race after a terrible start. They’ll handle a Raider team that has looked disorganized.

San Diego at Denver – the Chargers have the talent to dominate the AFC West, but instead they continue to shoot themselves in the foot and lose games they should win. The Broncos win at home.

Indianapolis at New England – this should be an interesting matchup as Colt rookie QB Andrew Luck faces a Patriot pass defense that has some holes. My guess is that Bill Bellichick will have some surprises prepared for Luck, and New England will win.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – it looks like Ben Roethlisberger won’t play in this game, so I’ll take the Ravens to win a close one.

Chicago at San Francisco – both of these team’s QBs, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith, have concussion issues, but whether either ot both play won’t mean much to the outcome. I’ll take the 49ers at home.

The annual series between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots has become eerily similar to what went on between the Bills and Miami Dolphins in the 1970s, when Don Shula’s rock-solid franchise dominated Buffalo completely, posting a perfect 20-0 record against the Bills for the decade. Watching the Bills try to compete with New England since Tom Brady and Bill Bellichick have been together has been painful. The Bills haven’t won in Foxborough since 2000, and have never won in Gillette Stadium. On Sunday, when the Bills piled up almost 120 yards in penalties in the first half alone, I had flashbacks to the “roughing the official” penalty called on Pat Toomay of the Bills in a game against Miami in the old Orange Bowl in the ’70s. There were phantom holding calls on the offensive line and questionable interference calls against the Bills’ secondary. The color analyst for CBS coverage of the game, Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Fouts, was pretty critical of some of the calls. The call that caused me to flash back, however, was a pass interference penalty against a Bills’ defender for grabbing Rob Gronkowski, when on the play Brady actually threw the ball to a different receiver, on the other side of the field. I wasn’t even aware that interference could be called unless a player directly interfered with a receiver trying to catch a pass. The replay clearly showed a foul being committed by the Bill defender on Gronkowski, but, as Fouts pointed out, the call should have been a defensive holding call, which would have been a five yard violation.

In reality, the Bills were their own worst enemy, even though some calls were questionable, as they played without much discipline in the early going and fell behind 17-3. All the penalties, combined with other mistakes, like 2 dropped interceptions on the opening Patriot drive and 3 turnovers, did the Bills in. As usual, the Pats made plays that winning teams make, and the Bills did what losing teams do – they played hard to the end, fought valiantly and did just enough to find a way to lose, again. They should be commended for doing enough, especially on offense, to give themselves a chance to pull the game out in the end. It’s unfortunate, but predictable, that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw the ball directly into safety Devin McCourty’s hands to seal the 37-31 win for the Pats. The Bills just haven’t reached the point where they know how to close out those types of games, and really, Fitzpatrick has yet to show he’s the type of QB that can lead a late comeback. Until the Bills change their current image, they’ll continue to have to fight through not only their opponents but bad officiating calls too. That’s just the way it is for losing teams in the NFL.

As far as the defense goes, the final score should probably warrant another scathing analysis of the unit, which has been pathetic all year. However, I’ll give them a pass this week. For one thing, Brady and the Patriots barbecue opposing defenses on a regular basis each week. It just seems like they’re always torturing the Bills because they play them twice a year every year. Although the Pats scored 7 times in the game, the fact that it was 4 TDs and 3 field goals is at least a little progress. Also, getting 120+ yards help from the officials, and 3 turnovers from the offense, well, that made it pretty easy for Brady & Co. All in all, I actually thought the effort on defense was something the team can build on for the rest of the season. If they can keep up the same level of play, against teams other than New England, they should win some games.

The Buffalo Bills’ mid-season report card this year is certainly not going to be as positive as it was at the halfway point of 2011, when the team was 5-3 and in a 3-way tie for the lead in the AFC East, and the future appeared to be bright. Unfortunately, the Bills won only one more game the entire year, and finished 6-10. Going into the 2012 season, the question was – would the Bills return to the promise of the first half of the 2011 season, or continue down the losing path of the second half. Here’s an in depth look at the club as it has now reached the halfway point of the 2012 season:

Front Office / Coaching

Buddy Nix has been in charge of the Bills’ football department for a long enough period of time to get a good assessment of how he’s done. Does the team have the right coaching staff in place? The jury is still out on Chan Gailey. He has shown that he is a pretty good offensive play caller, but does he have a good enough grasp on the rest of the team? He fired George Edwards as defensive coordinator and put Dave Wannstedt in charge, a move that hasn’t worked out well to this point. Wannstedt’s defense is so bad that it has matched NFL records for futility that date back to the 1950s, and a unit that spent big bucks on defensive players currently ranks as one of the worst in franchise history. Of course, that makes Nix’s signings of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to beef up the pass rush look bad. Also, if Shawne Merriman doesn’t do something in the second half of the season to help the defense, Nix’s fixation with him is going to look really silly.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the team’s roster at the half-way point:

Quarterback

Here’s the thing that needed to happen if the Bills were going to be a playoff contender in 2012 – quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had to cut down on turnovers, which plagued him in the second half of the 2011 season and were a big reason the team collapsed. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out that way. He still has a knack for throwing interceptions and fumbling at crucial times in close games, although Gailey’s play calling has something to do with that. The positive thing about Fitzpatrick is that he also has shown a knack for getting the Bills’ offense in the end zone. The current Bills certainly don’t match the group Jim Kelly led in the Super Bowl era, but when you compare what Fitzpatrick has done with guys like Rob Johnson, J.P. Losman and Trent Edwards, he still, to me, can be a player who can lead an effective offense. He has to stop the maddening turnover trend, and his coach has to help him by putting more emphasis in the game plans on the strength of the team – its’ running game. Neither of the backups, Tyler Thigpen or Tarvaris Jackson, qualifies as an adequate replacement for Fitzpatrick, and it’s a positive for Buddy Nix that he has already publicly stated that the Bills will draft a QB in 2013.

Running Back

As far as I’m concerned, C.J. Spiller has surpassed Fred Jackson as the most dangerous offensive weapon on the Bills’ roster, and it’s imperative that the coaching staff starts to feature him in the second half of the season. In fact, I believe it would have been a good move for Nix to trade Jackson at the trade deadline, which recently passed, especially if Gailey keeps insisting on giving his running backs so few carries in future games. It makes no sense to have 2 quality starting running backs on your roster if you’re not going to use either of them effectively. Tashard Choice has shown he is a solid backup in the opportunities he got early in the year when both Spiller and Jackson were battling injuries. Both fullbacks on the roster, Corey McIntyre and Dorin Dickerson, have gotten few opportunities but have made the most of them when called upon.

Receivers

One of the positive things about Fitzpatrick’s game since he became the Bills’ starting QB has been his knack for spreading the ball around among his receiving corps. Yet, through the first half of the season you can’t help but get the sense that none of the current receiving corps is reaching their potential. Stevie Johnson is still Fitzpatrick’s go-to guy, but hasn’t had a breakout game yet this year. Donald Jones is starting to look like a dependable player now that he’s healthy, and Fitzpatrick appears to trust him. The loss of David Nelson to a season-ending injury hurt the passing game, especially Fitzpatrick’s ability to convert on third down. Rookie T.J. Graham has shown flashes of brilliance but again, the team really hasn’t used him to his full potential. Tight end Scott Chandler has had his moments but you still get the impression he could contribute more. Marcus Easley, who’s become a forgotten man since the Bills drafted him, finally gets his chance to show something in the last 8 games, now that he’s been elevated from the practice squad. Brad Smith gets used mainly in wildcat running formations, after making significant contributions as a receiver last year. Why is it that on a team that stubbornly abandons its’ running game, and passes too much, that the receiving corps seems under-utilized also?

Offensive Line

This unit is still the strength of the team. They do a good job of both run and pass blocking and even though injuries have forced some changes to the makeup of the line as the season has gone on, it’s the one unit where there’s been consistency. Center Eric Wood and guard Andy Levitre have been mainstays, while Chris Hairston has been a lifesaver, first at left tackle filling in for rookie Cordy Glenn, and now on the right side replacing Erik Pears, who is out for the year. Kraig Urbik, the other starting guard, missed some time with injuries but is back now, just in time as his replacement, Chad Rinehart, is also hurt and out for the season. Glenn, when he’s been healthy, has looked solid at the all-important left tackle spot. The season-ending injuries will test the depth along the line in the second half of the year. That depth includes Sam Young, a little-used backup, and 2 brand new additions to the roster – David Snow and Thomas Welch. It’s an understatement to say that this unit can’t afford more injury trouble.

Defensive Line

The defensive line was expected to be one of the strengths of the team in 2012, but they just haven’t played up to their potential. Big ticket free agents Mario Williams and Mark Anderson have been disappointing and also battled injuries. Kyle Williams’ play, overall, hasn’t been bad but when a defense is setting historical negative records, no player is really playing well. Marcell Dareus, who was distracted by personal issues early in the year, had a decent game last week in Houston, but that was his first positive showing all year. He has not played to the level of a player drafted as high as he was.  Among the backups, Kyle Moore and Alex Carrington have had some good moments in limited opportunities, as has Chris Kelsay, although Kelsay, who’s gotten more playing time with Anderson out, has been average at best. You just expect more than mediocrity from veteran leaders on the team. Spencer Johnson, a reliable playmaking backup in past years, hasn’t done much this year. The most disappointing aspect of the play of the front four in Wannstedt’s new 4-3 defense is the absence of any kind of pass rush. Then again, it’s pretty disappointing that the team ranks 32nd, dead last in the entire league, against the run. You know things are bad when Nix brings back Shawne Merriman, a move that reeks of desperation to stop the bleeding.

Linebacker

The linebacking play, like every phase of the defense, has been subpar all year also. Veteran Nick Barnett has been somewhat of a bright spot, but that’s about it. Kelvin Sheppard, the second year starter at middle backer, hasn’t progressed much. Arthur Moats won a starting spot at outside linebacker entering the season, but has already been relegated to the bench in favor of rookie Nigel Bradham. Bradham hasn’t been terrible, but mostly looks like a rookie that has a lot to learn. Veteran Kirk Morrison has been invisible, and Chris White has seen action mostly on special teams, where he hasn’t distinguished himself much. Hybrid linebacker/safety Bryan Scott draws a lot of tough assignments, like trying to cover Rob Gronkowski twice a year, and to his credit has made some plays.

Defensive Backs

My opinion has always been that the young players in the Bills’ secondary would look a lot better when supported by a good pass rush, but even though Wannstedt has failed to manufacture much of that from his front four, I can’t say that I stand by my statement now. Jairus Byrd is a solid player and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore has done more good than bad, but the rest of the secondary has been a disaster. Veteran safety George Wilson, supposedly a team leader, has done absolutely nothing in the first eight games. At the corner spot opposite Gilmore, Aaron Williams has had a target on his back all year from Bills’ opponents, and has looked totally lost. Now he’s hurt and will miss significant playing time, which likely will set him back further. Williams, Leodis McKelvin and Justin Rogers have all looked lost and shown no awareness at all in pass coverage this season. Backup safeties Da’Norris Searcy and Delano Howell haven’t seen enough action to lump them in with all the other failed players on the defensive unit. You have to believe the coaching staff is not pleased with the play of the secondary so far, and I think the additions to the roster for the second half of the season of rookie Ron Brooks (activated from injured reserve) and Crezdon Butler, both cornerbacks, speak volumes. It’ll be interesting to watch how much both of those players get a chance to contribute, and if they’ll be capable of upgrading the defense.

Special Teams

The usually reliable special teams have had their ups and downs this season also, although overall they’ve done their jobs. You never hear long snapper Garrison Sanborn’s name mentioned at all, which means he’s doing a good job. Whether the decision to cut ties with veteran punter Brian Moorman in favor of young Shawn Powell was a good move or not will be decided in the second half of this season, although the early results aren’t good. Now Powell has to learn to handle bad weather punting. Rian Lindell has been his usual reliable self, although the Bills have attempted less field goals than any other NFL team this year. The “kickoff specialist” experiment with rookie John Potter ended this week when he was released. The kick coverage teams have been outstanding, and on returns, McKelvin has been among the league’s best returning both punts and kickoffs. Brad Smith has also contributed on returns.