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Week 12 was pretty much a disaster, as I picked only 7 winners out of the 16 games played. The overall record for the season is now 97 correct picks and 50 incorrect. Here are the week 13 choices:

New Orleans at Atlanta – the Saints completely revived their season in recent weeks and have climbed back into the playoff hunt, but took a major blow in losing to the 49ers last week. They need this win much more than the Falcons do, so I’ll take them to win on the road and complete a season sweep of their NFC South rivals.

Jacksonville at Buffalo – the Bills’ playoff hopes were all but extinguished last week, and now they are in a 2-week no-win situation with games against the Jaguars and Rams. If they lose, it’ll be disastrous, if they win, well, they are games they are expected to win. Although they are inconsistent and capable of losing to anybody, they have enough left in the tank to defeat their former coach, Mike Mularkey, in this game.

Seattle at Chicago – two teams fighting for NFC playoff positions. The Bears usually have a great home field advantage, while Seattle struggles on the road. With Jay Cutler back, I’ll pick the Bears.

Indianapolis at Detroit – Indy is one of the season’s big surprises, but the Lions are overdue for a win, and they’ll get one here after losing a heartbreaker on Thanksgiving.

Minnesota at Green Bay – the Vikings are going through a real gauntlet in their schedule, and after a fast start have been slowly coming back down to earth. The Packers will continue that grounding with a big win at home.

Carolina at Kansas City – there won’t be many fans at this game, and it figures to be a flat contest between 2 teams going nowhere. Carolina wins its’ second straight.

New England at Miami – the Dolphins always play New England tough, but the Pats have been on a roll in all 3 phases of the game recently. They’ll stay on that roll with a win on the road.

Arizona at New York Jets – the Jets may be the NFL’s most disappointing team this year, but they’re not so bad that they can’t beat a weak Cardinal team at home. New York wins.

San Francisco at St. Louis – since this a division matchup, it’ll probably stay close, but I expect the 49ers to pull it out in the end.

Houston at Tennessee – the Texans are the class of the AFC South this year, and they’ll continue their terrific 2012 season with another division win.

Tampa Bay at Denver – the Bucs will put up a good fight, but Denver is a legitimate title contender this year with Peyton Manning at the helm. The Broncos win a close one.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – the Steelers just can’t compete with Baltimore without Ben Roethlisberger, and I expect the Ravens to win easily and continue their stranglehold on the AFC North division.

Cleveland at Oakland – the Raiders are in disarray, and I expect a game Browns’ team to battle hard and win a close one on the road.

Cincinnati at San Diego – the Chargers are just too good to continue playing as bad as they have. I’ll pick them to regroup at home and upset the Bengals, putting a crimp in Cincy’s playoff hopes.

Philadelphia at Dallas – another battle of disappointing teams, but the Cowboys are still playing hard while the situation in Philly has come totally unraveled. Dallas wins.

New York Giants at Washington – it’s the time of year when the Giants start to get serious. Although they’ll face a tough test, New York squeezes out a division win.

Entering Sunday’s matchup between the Bills and Indianapolis Colts, there was still a sliver of hope that Buffalo, with the toughest portion of their schedule behind them, could build off the momentum of their prime time win over Miami last week and vault themselves back into the playoff race with a win. The Bills, however, were their usual selves, doing just enough in all 3 phases of the game to lose, 20-13. The Bills haven’t been terrible this season, and aren’t the most disappointing team in the league. Just ask the fans in Kansas City, or Jacksonville. They certainly haven’t been as disappointing as Detroit or San Diego, teams that have quality players throughout their roster and possess what everybody says a team needs to be a winner – “franchise” quarterbacks. However, the Bills may be a longer distance away from being a winning team than any of those others. As in a lot of their losses this year, there were positives – C.J. Spiller rushed for over 100 yards, Stevie Johnson had his first 100 yard receiving game of the year, Mario Williams had another good game – recording 3 sacks, Marcell Dareus was a factor, and Stephon Gilmore, right up until the pass interference call that ended any chance Buffalo had to win, played well. Incidentally, there was a play in a later game, between the 49ers and Saints, that could have passed for an instant replay of the foul on Gilmore, where the defensive back used the same exact technique, and there was no penalty. Of course, as I said in my review of a recent game against New England, the Bills won’t get the benefit of any official’s calls until they change the perception that they are an irrelevant, losing team.

Spiller, as he has been all year, was a sparkplug throughout the game, and tried his hardest to breathe life into his team. However, also as usual, he didn’t get the ball enough. He had only 14 carries, as coach Chan Gailey, once again, ran the offense as if the team needed to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s arm rather than their lethal running game. The Bills passed 33 times and attempted to throw another 3 times on plays in which Fitzpatrick scrambled. Spiller and Fred Jackson had 20 carries between them, meaning that the Bills preferred the pass to the run almost 2-to-1. The Bills trailed the whole game, but it’s not as if the score was ever so far out of hand that it warranted abandoning the run. As it’s been all season, it was just a matter of the type of attack Gailey prefers. Don’t the best head coaches tailor their offense to feature their best players and put the team in the best position to win games?

The best description I can come up with to describe Fitzpatrick’s performance is – sluggish. He looked like a guy who ate too much turkey on Thanksgiving and was still feeling the effects of the tryptophan. He had a couple of decent throws – the 63 yard completion to Johnson comes to mind – but also missed on too many passes to open receivers. His accuracy has been an issue all year, and unfortunately, the “experts” who’ve been saying all along that he’s not the future QB of this team, but just a career backup, look to be correct at this point. Bruce DeHaven’s special teams unit gave up another kick return touchdown, another difference-maker in the game, and just another example of how this team finds ways to do just enough to lose. Another sign of that is, despite playing a decent game, the defense was just bad enough on third down (they rank dead last in the NFL in that category) to assure a win for the Colts.

The Bills lost again, and that’s something fans are surely used to after 12 consecutive years of missing the playoffs, but what really made the day depressing was the news of the passing of Ernie Warlick, a tight end and key member of the team’s 1964 and ’65 AFL championship clubs. He was a class act and in the 1965 AFL title game against heavily-favored San Diego, with the Bills missing key receivers due to injury, he was a main target of QB Jack Kemp and played a huge part in the Bills winning that title. It was an example of a role player rising to the occasion to do whatever it took to win, something that’s sadly lacking on the current version of the team.

I had an extremely successful week picking NFL games in week 11, nailing 13 winners out of the 14 games played, to push the overall season record to 90 games correct and 41 wrong. This week’s games feature 3 contests on Thanksgiving, including the traditional games played in Detroit and Dallas, and an interesting AFC East matchup. Here are my week 12 choices:

Houston at Detroit – this game should be an easy pick, with the high-flying Texans meeting the disappointing Lions. However, the Lions are a better team than their record indicates, and this traditional game is their Super Bowl, so I’ll take Detroit to pull the upset.

Washington at Dallas – this game, between 2 bitter NFC East rivals, should be close, and I’ll go with the Cowboys at home. They snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Browns in overtime last week, and I feel they’ll be at their best in this one.

New England at New York Jets – the Jets need this game more, and always play the Pats tough, plus New England will be without Rob Gronkowski, who got hurt late in last week’s game while Bill Bellichick typically ran up the score against the Colts. All that being said, I’ll pick the Patriots to win a close one.

Buffalo at Indianapolis – is Buffalo’s defense finally finding itself? This will be a big test for them, as rookie Andrew Luck tries to rebound from a shellacking by New England. Luck will play well, but the Bills will finally put a full effort together and get a much-needed win.

Minnesota at Chicago – the Bears can’t afford to lose ground in the competitive NFC North, and their defense will make sure they don’t. Chicago wins at home.

Oakland at Cincinnati – Carson Palmer’s return to Cinci won’t be memorable for him. The Bengals are starting to get a sniff of the playoffs, and they’ll win big at home.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – the Steelers are reeling, and their defense is playing hard but doesn’t seem to have the horses this season. Cleveland pulls the upset at home.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – the Jaguars played a great game behind Chad Henne last week in losing an overtime heartbreaker to Houston, but I think the Titans will win here with a solid all-around effort.

Denver at Kansas City – the hard-luck Chiefs are in a bad downward spiral that isn’t going to end soon. The Broncos continue their surge to the playoffs with a big win.

Seattle at Miami – I see this as a low-scoring defensive battle, with the Seahawks winning the turnover battle and squeaking out the win.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – I’m tempted to pick the Bucs here, but Atlanta is just too solid of a club this year. The Falcons win a close game on the road.

Baltimore at San Diego – the Norv Turner firing line watch begins, as the Ravens solidify their hold on the AFC North with a one-sided win.

St. Louis at Arizona – neither team has playoff hopes, but both are well coached. The Cardinals are just a bit better defensively, so I’ll pick them to break their long losing streak and get a win.

San Francisco at New Orleans – if defense beats offense, then the 49ers should win this game, but I’m picking the Saints to stay on a roll and win a hard fought battle.

Green Bay at New York Giants – a prime time Sunday night game between legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Aaron Rodgers outduels Eli Manning and the Packers win.

Carolina at Philadelphia – like Romeo Crennel in Kansas City and San Diego’s Turner, Andy Reid is coaching for his job in Philly. Although I expect Cam Newton to play well in this Monday night clash, his Panthers will fall to the Eagles.