Offense
All NFL teams play possum in the preseason and don’t dig very deep into their playbook, saving the best for when the games count. But it’s hard to imagine that this type of philosophy was responsible for the Bills’ ugly exhibition showings. In evaluating how I think Buffalo’s offense will perform this year, however, I’m throwing out the preseason and going with what the team’s personnel should be capable of. EJ Manuel is far from a finished product, and will likely struggle early on. The Bills have a solid corps of running backs and receivers that should help him get where he needs to be eventually.
Defense
This unit had a decent 2013 statistically, but still had a bad habit of giving up huge plays at the worst possible times, typically a sign of a losing team. Even without Jairus Byrd and Kiko Alonso, this year’s defense could be somewhat more consistent than last year’s. They are solid and deep up front, more stout at linebacker with the additions of veterans Brandon Spikes and Keith Rivers, and at the very least capable in the secondary. If they learn to play good “team” defense under Schwartz, they could keep the team’s hopes for the postseason afloat by keeping games close.
Other than placekicker Dan Carpenter, the “bomb squads” are full of question marks heading into the season. Veteran punter Brian Moorman was among the final cuts, so the punter spot as well as the holder on placement kicks is still up in the air. There doesn’t seem to be any consensus choices on either the punt or kickoff return openings. On the positive side, the club added some solid special teams contributors during the off-season, so potentially the units could be in good shape.
Here’s a position-by-position look at the Bills’ roster going into the 2013 season:
Quarterback
Backup QB Kyle Orton
Buffalo’s front office has really fumbled the ball the last 2 years when it comes to settling this position. EJ Manuel is the unquestioned starter, but he is obviously not quite ready for prime time. He needs to turn his flashes of stellar play into consistent performance on a weekly basis, and above all stay healthy. For the second year in a row, the team’s primary backup will be a guy who has been on the roster for a week, this time Kyle Orton, who was actually retired when the Bills signed him. He not only hasn’t seen the playbook, but most likely isn’t in football shape. His upside is that over time as he learns the offense, at least he gives the club a backup with considerable experience who has actually won games in the NFL.
Running Back
FB Frank Summers
This unit is a strength of the team, led by the versatile duo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, and made even stronger by the off-season acquisitions of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon. Offensive coordinator Nate Hackett still needs to figure out ways to get Spiller into open space where he’s most dangerous. It seems to me he’s never been fully utilized in the passing game. Jackson should be his usual reliable self, with Brown providing a change of pace. Dixon’s value should show in short yardage situations, where the Bills have come up short in recent years.
Receivers
WR Mike Williams
Again, on paper the Bills have a strong unit of receivers, but they won’t contribute much if Manuel can’t get them the ball. The biggest newcomer on the roster is obviously Watkins, who has superstar written all over him once he gets on the same page with his quarterback. Mike Williams, a Buffalo native and another off-season addition, looked solid in the preseason and could be poised for a big year. Robert Woods, entering his second season, seems to have developed the most chemistry with Manuel at this point, and is pretty consistent. Tight end Scott Chandler returns and is a good security blanket for the QB as he looks to build some confidence in running the offense. As far as depth, Marquise Goodwin is a speedster who can stretch the field, and showed some big play ability in 2013. Chris Hogan made the squad as a dependable reserve possession receiver, while Marcus Easley will make his biggest contribution on special teams. The backup tight ends are Lee Smith, who I’m not a big fan of, and Chris Gragg. Smith racks up too many penalties for his limited playing time. Gragg shows enough potential to keep around as a development player.
Offensive Line
OT Seantrel Henderson
The front office made a concerted effort to upgrade the front line in the off-season by adding free agent guard Chris Williams and zeroing in on the O-line in the draft. The coaching staff experimented with different combinations here in the preseason, and seem to have settled on what looks like a solid group. The only holdovers from last year’s line are center Eric Wood and left tackle Cordy Glenn, while last year’s right tackle, Erik Pears, slides inside to right guard. Williams was supposed to be the starter at left guard, and may eventually claim that spot, but starts the year with back issues. In the meantime, rookie Cyril Richardson will fill in. Another rookie, the surprising Seantrel Henderson, takes over at right tackle. Glenn missed most of training camp and looked rusty in his only exhibition action, but he is a solid player at one of the game’s most important positions. Between Glenn’s rustiness and the fact that 2 rookies will be starting, the line may struggle early on, but should progress into a strength of the team if all five stay healthy. The depth on the line is much stronger than last season, with former starter Kraig Urbik able to fill in at all spots on the line. Chris Hairston can play guard or tackle, and whoever isn’t starting between Richardson and Williams will be a main backup. Second round draft choice Cyrus Kouandjio was easily the most disappointing of the team’s rookies in preseason, and although it’s way to early to write him off, he obviously needs lots of work.
Defensive Line
DT Marcell Dareus
Without a doubt, this unit is the strongest and deepest on the team. Tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams and end Mario Williams are all Pro Bowl caliber players, and Jerry Hughes, the other end, is close. They combined to help set a club record for sacks in a single season in 2013. There’s plenty of experience among the reserves, also. Tackles Corbin Bryant and Stephan Charles are rock solid, and ends Manny Lawson and newcomer Jarius Wynn are both experienced veterans, which is good since the Bills, like most NFL teams these days, will use a defensive line rotation during games. The lone negative last year was giving up big plays in the run game, but Schwartz’s units have always been tough against the run in the past.
Linebackers
LB Nigel Bradham
The loss of standout Kiko Alonso for the year prior to training camp is a huge loss for this unit, but the front office realized there needed to be upgrades here and made an effort to accomplish that. Last year’s weakness against the run was probably more due to linebacking play than that of the D-line, and two new veteran starters acquired through free agency – Brandon Spikes and Keith Rivers – should help in that area. Spikes was impressive in the preseason as an every down backer, stuffing the run and defending passes when dropping into coverage. Rivers looked a lot more active than he did in his previous stops with the Bengals and Giants. Nigel Bradham is the third starter, and although he’ll miss the opening game due to a suspension, he looks vastly improved over last season. The only holdover backup from 2013 is Ty Powell, who joined the club during the season and was a decent special teamer. Two new rookie draft picks, Preston Brown and Randell Johnson, look like keepers, and share some impressive traits – they both play a physical style and are quick to the ball in pursuit.
Defensive Backs
CB Stephon Gilmore
The loss of playmaking safety Jairus Byrd could be a big loss to the secondary, but the two projected starters – Aaron Williams and Da’Norris Searcy – both showed a knack for coming up with turnovers last season. Duke Williams, a draft pick from last year who didn’t have much impact, looks much more comfortable and in the preseason showed that he may be ready to unseat Searcy for his starting job at some point this year. Jonathan Meeks, also a 2013 pick who didn’t play much, is the other reserve safety. Local product Corey Graham was one of the Bills’ most important free agent signings in the off-season. He’s a versatile veteran who has played on winning teams and should help bring some of the younger players along. He can swing between safety and cornerback depending on the need and will also be an important core player on special teams. Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin are the starters on a strong cornerback group. Gilmore struggled some last season after missing significant playing time because of injury, and the hope is he will step up his game in 2014. McKelvin has done the hard work over the years to turn himself into a solid corner. Undrafted Nickell Robey was a revelation as a nickel back last year, and looks confident entering his second season. The two other backups, Ron Brooks and Ross Cockrell, are unproven but show decent potential.
Overview
The Bills enter the 2014 season with almost zero expectations, but at the same time facing a lot of pressure to produce in light of the impending ownership change. What will it take for them to break their 14 year drought of missing the playoffs? The one player they’ll need to produce, QB EJ Manuel, looks like he’ll need some time to develop further, so it’ll be important for the defense to play up to their potential and keep the team in games until the offense comes around. At some point the light bulb has to go on for Manuel. He needs to put together a signature game, a breakthrough win sometime during season, and then build off of that until he can be counted on to play consistently well. The coaching staff needs to convince him to trust his abilities, not overthink things. Being overly conservative with him will only stifle his growth. They have to trust that their defense is strong enough to overcome whatever mistakes he makes. Without a doubt, on paper, the Bills have upgraded the talent on their roster. Now they have to use that talent to put together a winning season.
It’s become a tradition for this post to include, for any Bills fans who need to get psyched a little more for the start of the season, the link below:
