The Buffalo Bills enter the 2016 season under heavy scrutiny from their fan base after finishing a disappointing 8-8 in Rex Ryan’s first season as head coach. Ryan had boasted, basically guaranteed, that his team would make the playoffs last year, and he didn’t deliver on the promise. With contributions from co-writer Josh Pohlman, here is my Bills’ season preview for 2016:
Front Office / Coaching
Doug Whaley has managed to draft some serviceable players in his time as GM of the Bills, but the club suffered some off-season losses this year as Karlos Williams first showed up out of shape, then was suspended by the league for substance abuse, eventually being cut. Also, the team’s two top draft picks, Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland, were lost to injury leaving a gaping hole in the defense as both were being counted on to fill starting roles. Rex Ryan needs to go into this season with a lot less bombast and a lot more coaching acumen, in order to avoid another lost year. He added a pair of big names to his staff – his twin brother Rob to help revive what was a disappointing defense, and former All Pro safety Ed Reed, who will work with the defensive backs. Two things need to happen for the Bills to fulfill their playoff dream. First, the offense, with Tyrod Taylor now firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback and Greg Roman going into year two as the coordinator, must take a giant leap forward. Secondly, and more importantly, the team has to develop some semblance of discipline and avoid taking silly penalties.
Offense
There are a lot of differences in the Bills’ offense entering 2016 compared to last year. Taylor is now the unquestioned leader, LeSean McCoy is healthy and ready to roll, the offensive line is intact and should have a good deal of chemistry, Charles Clay is back from injury and Mike Gillislee enters the season as McCoy’s primary backup, while veteran Reggie Bush should have enough gas left in the tank to contribute also. The players should now have a good comfort level with Roman’s offensive scheme. On paper, Taylor has a lot of weapons to work with, now it’s a matter of executing.
Defense
Buffalo’s defense was horrific most of last season after finishing in the top 5 previously. Players complained about Ryan’s system being too complicated and of calls being sent in late, causing mass confusion. The defense got somewhat better as the year wound down, but there still is massive room for improvement. It doesn’t help that the top 2 draft picks who were being counted on to help shore up the unit have been lost to injury, and that a main cog on the line, Marcell Dareus, is suspended for a quarter of the season. All in all, the defense looks poised to rebound from 2015 and become a strength of the team, but they still have to do it on the field.
Special Teams
The bomb squads were mostly ordinary last year, and that needs to be improved on this season. The kick coverage units weren’t bad in 2015, but a lot of the players on those units will be different now. The addition of Bush should give the kick return units a boost. Punter Colton Schmidt is solid, while kicker Dan Carpenter must regain his old form after an inconsistent 2015. Carpenter also now has the additional responsibility of handling kickoffs.
Quarterback
QB Cardale Jones
Unlike the beginning of the 2015 campaign, the QB position going into this season is set for the Bills. Tyrod Taylor won the job outright last season and had a pretty decent year, throwing for 20 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions. He is now the undisputed starter and looks to improve on last year’s performance with a full year in the system under his belt. EJ Manuel starts the year as the main backup with rookie Cardale Jones on the roster as a project with potential for the future. Jones looked raw in preseason but did flash signs of poise under pressure that Manuel has never seemed to have. It wouldn’t be a shock if Jones moved into the #2 spot before the season ends if he continues to learn and progress.
Running Back
RB Mike Gillislee
The Bills’ rushing attack should be primed for a big season. LeSean McCoy, the workhorse back, goes into the season completely healthy and motivated to return to his Pro Bowl form. He didn’t have a bad year in 2015 but is capable of much more. Mike Gillislee is a solid backup with big play ability, and Reggie Bush, although his main job may be returning kicks, could add a major weapon to both the rushing and passing attack. Rookie Jonathan Williams is on the roster to start the year but battling injuries. There looks to be enough depth here to offset the loss of Karlos Williams, who was a big contributor last year but lost his job with a lackluster training camp coupled with a drug suspension. The Bills kept undrafted rookie Glenn “Baby Gronk” Gronkowski on the roster as a fullback, and he should be a less expensive, more versatile option than Jerome Felton, who was cut. A late addition was another rookie, Dan Vitale, who can also play tight end.
Receiver
WR Sammy Watkins
Sammy Watkins, coming off a foot injury suffered during the offseason, will be the Bills’ #1 receiver this year. He had his most impressive season yet in 2015 despite nagging injuries. His best performances came when matched up against some of the NFL’s top corners. He has a lot of work to do before he is considered one of the league’s elite pass catchers in the Antonio Brown/Julio Jones/Dez Bryant mold, but he seems headed in that direction. Opposing teams will surely pay lots of attention to Watkins in their defensive game plans, so it will be up to the rest of the receiving corps to make plays when he draws extra coverage. Robert Woods is the other starter and is a solid possession receiver who could have a breakout year. Rounding out the pass catching unit are Greg Salas, a late season addition in 2015 who will likely replace Chris Hogan as the slot receiver. He has the size and experience to fill that role nicely. Marquise Goodwin, an Olympic athlete with blazing speed, should be the player who stretches the field as a deep threat if he can stay healthy. Staying on the field has been a major issue for him in his career. Walter Powell was a long shot free agent who also was signed off the street late last year but had a great preseason to secure a roster spot. He showed ability as a possession receiver and also the versatility to return kicks. Marcus Easley, a special teams ace, and rookie draftee Kolby Listenbee begin the season injured. Time will tell if they are able to contribute to the team. A top receiving threat for Taylor to target is tight end Charles Clay, who has shown the ability to be a playmaker but also ended 2015 on the injury list. Jim Dray was signed as a backup mostly for his blocking ability, while Nick O’Leary had a solid preseason finale to win a roster spot, and with OC Roman favoring multiple tight end sets, could see significant playing time.
Offensive Line
G John Miller
The offensive line will enter 2016 with the luxury of having played together as a unit for almost an entire season. Center Eric Wood anchors the line, and the left side is solid with a pair of players who earned new contracts, guard Richie Incognito and tackle Cordy Glenn. John Miller enters his sophomore season as the starting right guard, and the year’s experience under his belt should help him progress. Jordan Mills took over during the 2015 season at right tackle and held down the position nicely. He enters this year as the starter as Seantrell Henderson still battles illness. Cyrus Kouandjio had a good camp and may be finally starting to become a solid pro. He’ll be an important depth player as the swing tackle. Other reserves are relative unknowns – Ryan Groy, a late 2015 addition, and Patrick Lewis, a backup center signed late in the preseason after being cut by Seattle.
Defensive Line
DE Adolphus Washington
Due to rookie top draft pick Shaq Lawson’s injury and Marcell Dareus’ selfish behavior, the defensive line will enter the season somewhat shorthanded. The starters on the three man line in Ryan’s basic 3-4 alignment will be Kyle Williams, Corbin Bryant and rookie Adolphus Washington, the highest draft choice left standing. Washington had a solid preseason and appears ready to step in as a starter. A lot of responsibility will be placed on the shoulders of backups Jerel Worthy and Leger Douzable, who will see significant playing time spelling the starters in the D-line rotation.
Linebackers
LB Lorenzo Alexander
The linebacking corps suffered a setback when rookie draftee Reggie Ragland, a projected starter, was lost for the season with a knee injury. With Ragland gone, the inside backer spots in the 3-4 will be filled by Preston Brown, a returning starter, and a committee consisting of Brandon Spikes and Zach Brown. Jerry Hughes, the team’s top pass rushing threat, is listed as a DE but will serve more as an outside linebacker. The other outside backer is a surprise starter, free agent signee Lorenzo Alexander. He was signed as a special teams player but won a starting LB spot with an impressive preseason. The depth players for this unit include undrafted rookie Bryson Albright and a pair of unknowns picked up late in preseason, Ramon Humber, who played for Rob Ryan in New Orleans, and Lerentee McCray, picked up in a trade from Green Bay.
Defensive Backs
CB Ronald Darby
In Ryan’s blitz-happy scheme, a lot of pressure is put on the cornerbacks to cover receivers one on one, and the Bills have a pair of starters who appear to be up to the challenge in Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. Gilmore has been pretty solid since joining the team, while Darby showed the potential in his rookie season last year to possibly surpass Gilmore as the #1 corner on the team. Today’s NFL game requires plenty of qualified coverage guys in the secondary, and the Bills have a plethora of players in that regard with Nickell Robey-Coleman, free agent signee Corey White and surprise late round draftee Kevon Seymour. Also, the Bills open the season heavy on their roster with safeties, carrying a total of six. The starters are Corey Graham and Aaron Williams, who both also have experience at corner so their coverage skills are good. Williams is returning from a serious neck injury and also spent almost the entire preseason in the NFL concussion protocol, so his availability to open the season is questionable. There are plenty of reserves to fill the spot if needed. Duke Williams had a good training camp and should see plenty of playing time even if Aaron Williams is ready to play. Robert Blanton was signed in the off-season and is another dependable, experienced backup. Jonathan Meeks and another newcomer, Colt Anderson, will see mostly special teams duty but can fill in at either safety spot if needed.
Overview
After a mostly disappointing 2015 season, the Bills, from upper management down through the coaching staff and on into the players, have a lot to prove this year. Rex Ryan needs to be less of a showman and more of an actual head coach this season, and steer this team in the right direction as far as executing both the offensive and defensive game plans each week, and most importantly, instill some discipline in a team that has developed such a reputation for sloppy play that the officials are now targeting them. The players themselves, save for Dareus, seem to realize their time is now and are ready to self-police their own locker room and keep everyone’s eyes on the prize. For the most part they all are buying into the “All In” motto that Ryan has put forth. Of course, it has to be done on the field on a consistent basis to be successful.