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NFL – 2011 Week One Predictions

07 Sep

A new NFL season is upon us beginning on Thursday night, when the last 2 Super Bowl champions, Green Bay and New Orleans, square off in historic Lambeau Field. It’s a terrific matchup to kick off the year. The league has made it’s “Kickoff Weekend” a big deal in the last few years, making it an event. It’s a great move, since the league’s popularity is at an all-time high. Evidence of this came in week two of the preseason, when 2 of the top 5 highest rated television broadcasts were NFL preseason games. That’s not only 2 of the top 5 sports broadcasts, but all shows. You know you have a gold mine when your meaningless exhibition games are drawing bigger TV audiences than other sports’ regular games. I am starting my annual weekly predictions of the league’s games this week. My record last season wasn’t bad – 152 correct, 103 wrong. I consider that pretty good since a lot of pundits who pick games on the weekly pre-game shows consistently are sub-.500 on their picks. Week one, as I stated last year, is the hardest week of games to predict, since teams have been hiding their real intentions all through the preseason so as not to give opponents a read on them for game-planning purposes. Here are my Week One choices:

New Orleans at Green Bay – the Saints are only a year removed from being champions, and will be a hungry football team this year. Drew Brees will make sure of that. The Packers, however, won the Super Bowl even though they had 19 players on injured reserve, including offensive starters Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley. Those weapons are now back. They also are at home in this game, and I just can’t get the visual of how awful the Saints’ defense was in last year’s wild card upset loss to Seattle. Green Bay wins at home in what should be a terrific game.

Buffalo at Kansas City – my record would’ve been much better last year if I had picked the Bills’ games with my head instead of my heart, especially since they started out 0-8. The Chiefs were a playoff team last year and are always tough at home in Arrowhead Stadium, but they beat the Bills by the skin of their teeth last year, and the health of QB Matt Cassel is questionable due to a rib injury, so I’m picking the Bills to open the season with a win.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – the 2 teams who figure to slug it out for the AFC North title get round one started right away. I picked the Ravens to overtake the Steelers in the division, so it figures that I’ll pick them to get a jump in the race by winning this game. Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco is 0-6 against the Steelers in his career, and his security blanket – TE Todd Heap – is now in Arizona, but the Baltimore defense will get the job done and Ray Rice will have a big day, helping Baltimore get the win.

Atlanta at Chicago – I’m not a big fan of Bears’ QB Jay Cutler, and the new kickoff rule takes away a big weapon from Chicago in Devin Hester, and even though I see Atlanta faltering from its’ playoff season of 2010, they will win this game in a hard-fought, low-scoring defensive struggle. Atlanta’s running game will be the difference.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – the Bengals’ new rookie QB, Andy Dalton, looked good in preseason action but the real bullets start to fly this weekend. Browns’  QB Colt McCoy continues his development with a good game here, mixing in timely passes with a strong running game to give the Browns a win for their home fans over their Ohio rivals.

Indianapolis at Houston – it looks as though Peyton Manning will not play, and I think the Texans would win in this spot, at home on opening day, anyway. Houston has a talented team and is capable of playing big at times – their problem is consistency over a long season. The Texans will win to give their fans some initial hope, but we all know they’ll fade later in the year.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – I picked the Jaguars to surprise everyone and win the AFC South division, then they go and cut their starting QB, David Garrard, 5 days before the season opener. That won’t play well in the Jags’ locker room, especially since the team saves $9 million with the move. I actually now feel the Jags will wind up in the division basement, and the decline will start with this game as the Titans win the game on the road for new coach Mike Munchak.

Philadelphia at St. Louis – the Rams will be an up-and-coming team this year and contend for the NFC West title, but it won’t start this weekend. The Eagles are too talented and too experienced to lose in this situation, and will win on the road in a close game. Michael Vick didn’t exactly light it up in the last few games of 2010, and will be anxious to get back on track to his early season form of last year. He’ll have a big game against a young Ram defense.

Detroit at Tampa Bay – both of these teams are on the rise and will make some noise this year, and that makes for an interesting matchup between 2 franchises that are perennial losers. The Buccaneers are just a little ahead of Detroit in their development, and the home field advantage will be the difference. Tampa wins at home behind young QB Josh Freeman.

Carolina at Arizona – both of these teams were in the playoffs not that long ago, but have fallen on hard times. The Panthers are betting their future on rookie QB Cam Newton, while the Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb to try to revive an offense that faltered after Kurt Warner retired. Kolb has just a little more experience and more importantly, has a better supporting cast around him than Newton at this point. It has to be a great feeling for a young signal-caller, taking the reins of his own team for the first time, to look around and see guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Todd Heap to lean on. Add the home field advantage to that, and the Cardinals are a clear favorite to win.

Minnesota at San Diego –  the Brett Favre era is over, the Donovan McNabb era begins, and Viking fans wonder how long it will be until the Christian Ponder era arrives. Meanwhile, in San Diego, Phillip Rivers is a constant and has star WR Vincent Jackson back. The Chargers are determined to bury their slow-start reputation and their defense is good enough to contain Adrian Peterson, and they will win their opener.

Seattle at San Francisco – this NFC West matchup features the worst quarterbacking of any of the opening day games, with Tarvaris Jackson, the Seahawks new QB, facing 49er first round disappointment Alex Smith. So the final score will probably be 48-45. It’s tough to predict anything in this division except that there will be a lot of mediocrity. I’ll pick the Seahawks to win, based on the momentum they picked up by winning a wild card playoff game last year.

New York Giants at Washington – all of this week’s NFL games will surely include pre-game remembrances of 9/11 on the 10th anniversary, but this one may be the most emotional, since both cities involved were directly attacked on that day. As far as the game, the Giants are the better team on paper but their inconsistent play ruined their 2010 season. You have to figure they’ll be focused on opening day, and I’ll pick them to win with Eli Manning outplaying Redskin QB Rex Grossman.

Dallas at New York Jets – this Sunday night marquee matchup should also have a pretty emotional 9/11 remembrance ceremony. The Cowboys have been huge underachievers in recent years but I feel they will be a strong title contender in 2011. They won’t win this game however, as the Jets will be keyed up and ready to go. The Jets, led by bombastic coach Rex Ryan, sometimes are a little full of themselves, but there’s no denying how good their defense is. They’ll make it a long night for Tony Romo and will win here.

New England at Miami – the early game of what is now another new NFL tradition – the Monday Night Opening Weekend Doubleheader. It seems no matter what the NFL does it never feels like over-saturation, since the fans can’t get enough. New England is still one of the best teams in the AFC, while the Dolphins have steadily declined over the last couple of seasons. The Patriots win easily with Tom Brady having a great game.

Oakland at Denver – the late portion of the MNF doubleheader. Oakland is an enigma – they are nowhere near the dominant franchise they were in the past and everybody seems to think Al Davis has lost it, but they are always in every game they play, have one of the NFL’s toughest defenses and win more often than they should. They were 8-8 last year and should improve in 2011. I see them going into Denver and winning against their old AFL rivals. The Broncos are relying on Kyle Orton at QB and will struggle to keep their heads above water all season.

 
1 Comment

Posted in Football

 
  1. Louise

    September 8, 2011 at 4:03 pm

    Let the games begin!! Can’t wait!