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It wouldn’t be fair to call this post the Buffalo Sabres’ season preview, since the season is already well underway. So we’ll call it the season “outlook” and take a look at where the club stands as this season begins to progress:

Front Office

If you include owner Terry Pegula and his family here, this is the best part of the organization. They have breathed new life into the organization, from remodeling the locker room to continuing the plaza parties, and most importantly, putting GM Darcy Regier on a level playing field with the big spenders of the league when it comes to player acquisitions. Team president Ted Black is also a great addition to the franchise, and even if the team is still a ways from being a true championship contender, the new attitude of the franchise is making it fun for the fans as they go all out to make it happen.

Coaching

Lindy Ruff has always done a good job of taking whatever players he was handed and molding them into a competitive, hard-working team on the ice. Then cheap ownership would allow the most valuable members of the team, from Mike Peca and Dominik Hasek on through to Chris Drury and Daniel Briere, to leave and Ruff would have to make do with the scraps left behind. And usually he would do a decent job of piecing together those scraps and putting a competitive, accountable team on the ice. Now we get to see what Ruff can accomplish with a little support from management. The club has been good so far this season and only stands to improve once the new players get accustomed to playing with each other and with Ruff’s system.

Goaltending

Jhonas Enroth

It could be argued that with the emergence of Jhonas Enroth at the end of last season as a reliable backup goalie, the Sabres have the best goaltending depth in the NHL. Ryan Miller is considered world-class and although I still am not sure of that assessment, I believe he is capable of back-stopping the team to a Stanley Cup title if the cast around him is improved. In the past fans always thought Tom Barrasso was good, but never good enough to take the Sabres to the top, but when he left here and was able to play with a talented Pittsburgh Penguin team he was more than adequate to help them win multiple Cups. I definitely see Miller’s situation being similar to Barrasso – the difference being that Miller stays here while the championship team is assembled around him – which never would have happened under previous owners. The presence of Enroth as a second option that Ruff can use, who has the total confidence of his teammates, means that there’s no reason to overwork Miller. The team should be in excellent shape as far as goaltending is concerned throughout the regular season and playoffs if both goalies stay healthy.

Forwards

Nathan Gerbe

The Sabres don’t have an offensive threat that strikes fear in any opponent, and haven’t really had one since the record-breaking duo of Pat Lafontaine and Alexander Mogilny. They have been relying in recent years on a balanced attack, which can be advantageous come playoff time when teams try to match lines. Their most feared scorer now is Thomas Vanek, who has a great shot and also a knack for scoring in the tough areas around the net. Drew Stafford finally developed into the goal scorer the team expected when they drafted him, and the return of Derek Roy should help the offense also. New captain Jason Pominville hasn’t been a great scorer over his career but gives the offense something just as valuable – consistency. The Sabres should also expect players like Tyler Ennis, Nathan Gerbe and Luke Adam to push their games to the next level. Ruff now has a new toy to play with when he puts his line combinations together – newly-signed free agent Ville Leino. Leino has been a productive scorer in his NHL career, especially in the playoffs, which should be a tremendous help to the team. Add in the toughness that players like Paul Gaustad, Cody McCormick and Patrick Kaleta provide, along with any contributions they get from spare parts like Jochen Hecht, Matt Ellis and Brad Boyes, and the Sabres have all the ingredients they should need to have their offensive game covered.

Defense

Christian Ehrhoff

Buffalo’s defense corps was adequate last season, but the team went out and got the unit some help in the off-season. Big Tyler Myers is on his way to becoming one of the top defensemen in the NHL, and should start to develop more of a mean streak as he grows into his body. The addition of Robyn Regehr will increase the toughness factor of the unit also. Marc-Andre Gragnani was a revelation in last year’s playoffs and will be a big addition to the team’s blue line, and the power play, as a full-time starter this year. Another newcomer, Christian Ehrhoff, was solid as an offensive defenseman in Vancouver’s run to the Cup finals last year, and will help upgrade the Sabres defense corps also. Holdovers Mike Weber, Andrej Sekera and Jordan Leopold round out what is now as good as any defensive unit in the league.

Work constraints have kept me from updating this blog as much as I’d like to, and there are some topics I wanted to comment on that I never got a chance to, one of which is the Buffalo Sabres’ new status as one of the NHL’s big players in the free agent market. With football season starting and baseball entering the heat of the pennant races, whatever posts I add here will likely be dominated by those 2 sports (especially football), but the Sabres’ moves are surely worth a few words.

New owner Terry Pegula has brought excitement and enthusiasm to Buffalo hockey fans that hasn’t been seen since the Knox Brothers brought in Punch Imlach, Gilbert Perreault, Rick Martin, Rene Robert, Danny Gare, Jim Shoenfeld, etc. and built a hockey power that made the playoffs in its’ third season. This season, coach Lindy Ruff will find himself in the unfamiliar position of molding some great NHL talent into a team. Following years of trying to do it with smoke and mirrors after the usual departure of star players, Ruff will have the luxury of inserting newly-acquired talent into his lineup. Ruff has guided the Sabres back into the NHL playoffs the last 2 seasons, but both years ended with disappointing first round losses, to Boston and Philadelphia. The team now has added a pair of  solid defensemen – Robyn Regehr and Christian Erhoff, and a solid two-way forward – Ville Leino, through free agency. Regehr is a stay-at-home type of defenseman who brings a couple of things to the Sabres’ defense that have been lacking – size and toughness. Erhoff possesses the kind of offensive skills that should make him an asset on the power play. Leino is a still-developing player who has shown the knack for coming up big in the playoffs. Signing him away from the Flyers softens the blow somewhat of watching Danny Briere haunt the Sabres continually in this past year’s playoffs.

One overlooked thing about the new owner is that this year, for the first time in ages, the off-season has been filled with stories of the team re-signing it’s own players, rather than having to watch good players leave in order to keep the bottom line in order. In the past, GM Darcy Regier probably would have had to decide between keeping either Ryan Miller or Jhonas Enroth as the team’s goaltender, rather than keep both in the fold, but this year the team signed Enroth and will now have what a lot of other NHL teams only dream of – depth in goal. The club also locked up Cody McCormick, Mike Weber, Andrej Sekera, Marc- Andre Gragnani and a host of other future prospects and players to help out the farm team in Rochester, which Pegula also purchased. They may not be ready to win the Stanley Cup yet this season, but it’s nice to know the hockey people in the organization are now being given the tools to compete on a level playing field with the Bostons, Philadelphias and New York Rangers of the league.

The Detroit Red Wings came up just short in their bid to dig their way out of a 3-0 hole in their Stanley Cup playoff series against San Jose, losing a 3-2 decision in Game Seven last night. The Conference Final matchups are now set, and here are my picks for those series:

Tampa Bay vs. Boston – the Lightning were fortunate to get to play the Penguins minus Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and took advantage to advance to this point. I had picked Pittsburgh to win the series based on a goaltending advantage, but Tampa’s 41 year old veteran Dwayne Roloson did a great job for his team. He now will battle Boston’s Tim Thomas, probably the best goalie left in the NHL’s final four. I have to go with Boston to win this series, since the Bruins are a more experienced, more talented and more physical team. It also helps that they now have the added confidence boost from avenging their playoff collapse against the Flyers last season. Nathan Horton has become a playoff scoring hero for them, and defenseman Zdeno Chara sets a physical tone that the Bolts won’t be able to match.

Vancouver vs. San Jose – the Sharks will certainly be more worn down physically than the well-rested Canucks, and in my mind their goalie, Antti Niemi, is better than the inconsistent Roberto Luongo. Both of these teams blew 3-0 series leads this year and survived game sevens to advance this far, so neither has a particularly strong killer instinct. I’ll pick the Canucks to win a seven game series, with the assumption that the Sedin brothers will raise their games and be factors offensively. Both of these teams have a recent history of being regular season juggernauts who come up small at playoff time, so it’ll be interesting to see which one shakes that label and moves on to the finals.

When I wrote the blog predicting the result of the Buffalo Sabres/Philadelphia Flyers deciding Game Seven the other day, in the back of my mind I was thinking…well, boys, surprise me….prove me wrong…show me some magic. But, alas, the result of Game Seven was, well, very predictable. The Flyers, beaten twice on their home ice already in the series, were not going to lose for a third time, and they came out and totally dominated Buffalo 5-2 to win the series and advance to the second round. My original post picking the Flyers to win listed Ryan Miller’s failure to play up to expectations as a reason why the Sabres would lose, but in this series he changed my mind. Although the fact remains that he couldn’t outduel 3 different Flyer goaltenders, all of whom were terrible at some point in the series, Miller was the main reason the series went the distance rather than being decided in fewer games. The Sabres were beaten because they couldn’t handle Philly’s ferocious forechecking throughout the series, not because Miller didn’t do his job.

The season is now over for Buffalo and the familiar cry of local sports fans of “Wait ‘Till Next Year” now begins. But for Sabre Nation, there is reason for real optimism, and that reason is named Terry Pegula. Pegula has vowed to pursue the Stanley Cup at all costs, and there’s no reason not to believe him. Pegula seems to have made it clear that Lindy Ruff isn’t going anywhere even though his contract is up, and Ruff deserves the chance to coach this team under the new ownership, even though the last few seasons have mostly resulted in playoff failures. Ruff is a solid coach, although in my opinion when he spouted off at press conferences during this series, he didn’t do his team any favors. I love Ruff’s candid style, but I’m afraid with this current group of players he has, he is writing checks with his mouth that his players can’t cash. And that leads me to the person who now becomes the most important person in the organization – the team’s much-maligned general manager Darcy Regier. The Sabres, in reality, did well to push the Flyers to seven games considering the huge leadership vaccuum on the roster. They have no captain, and there really isn’t a player on the team who appears to be “captain” material. I always felt it was a telling sign that when Craig Rivet was acquired he was immediately made team captain. That was an embarrassing indictment of the entire roster. In my opinion, the player who shows the most leadership on the Sabres is probably Miller. There are people, myself included, who have said that the goalie is overrated and overpaid and not really an elite goalie, but there’s no doubt that if Buffalo can improve the rest of their roster, they can win the Stanley Cup with Miller in goal. Trading him would be repeating the mistake made when Tom Barrasso was dealt years ago. Barrasso was always considered an underachiever here, but when he wound up on a Pittsburgh team with Mario Lemieux and other talented players, he won the Cup. So now the spotlight falls on Regier. In his tenure here, he traded Chris Gratton, a monumental underachiever, for Daniel Briere, and it would be nice if he could find another diamond in the rough like that now. The best thing about Pegula now owning the team is that now, when the GM brings in the next wave of Brieres, Michael Pecas, Chris Drurys, Dominik Haseks or Brian Campbells, they’ll STAY here.

My original prediction of the Buffalo Sabres – Philadelphia Flyers opening round playoff series was that the Flyers would win in six games, and that pick will be incorrect since the series is now going to a seventh and deciding game. I see no reason to change the pick of the Flyers as the team that will eventually win the series. I still stand by my original reasoning that the Sabres are not mentally tough enough to outwork a team in a long series, and their 5-4 overtime loss in game 6 is a great example of that lack of a “killer extinct”. They had 2-0 and 3-1 leads and blew them, went ahead again 4-3 in the third period and couldn’t hold that lead, and lost the chance to put Philly away when Ville Leino scored the game winner in the OT. Now they have to win for a third time on the road in Philly to win the series, and despite the Flyers’ huge deficiency in goaltending, I don’t see that happening. In fact, I don’t see the game even being close. Philly has been overwhelming the Sabres with their dominant forechecking and I expect them to come out flying and make sure they score early and often enough to ensure that goaltending isn’t even an issue.

It’s time to check in and see how my first round predictions for the Stanley Cup playoffs are doing. For starters, in the Western Conference I picked the Phoenix Coyotes to win their series with Detroit, and the Red Wings have already swept the disappointing Coyotes out of the playoffs. I picked Vancouver to oust defending champion Chicago, and the Canucks have a 3-2 edge in that series. Like I said in picking Vancouver, the Black Hawks are nowhere near the same team that won the Cup last year, but after falling behind 3-0 in the series have staved off elimination with 2 resounding wins. I still feel Vancouver will eventually win. I had San Jose defeating the Los Angeles Kings and the Sharks have a 3-1 lead in that series, so it’s so far so good there. I picked Anaheim to knock out Nashville based on the Ducks’ experience, but the Predators have proven to be a tough out, as that series is tied at 2-2.

In the East, I chose Washington to cleanse the bad taste of last year’s playoff collapse against Montreal, and they are well on their way to doing that, holding a 3-1 edge over the New York Rangers. Of course, the Caps had a 3-1 lead on Montreal last year and blew it, so it’s not over until they secure that fourth win. However, when the Caps overcame a 3-0 deficit to beat New York 4-3 in double overtime the other night, it probably deflated the Rangers to the point where they won’t come back. As predicted, Pittsburgh appears to be making quick work of Tampa Bay, holding a 3-1 edge after beating the Lightning, also in double OT, in game four. Boston and Montreal always play memorable playoff series, and this year is no exception. The Habs shocked the hockey world by winning the first 2 games in Boston, then Boston came back and returned the favor by winning  games 3 and 4 in Montreal. The emotions are running high in this series, as shown below by Bruins’ defenseman Andrew Ference’s one-finger salute to the Montreal fans after he scored a goal in the fourth game. I picked Philadelphia to eliminate Buffalo based on the Flyers being a more mentally tough team, and on the fact that Ryan Miller still hasn’t shown me that he’s truly an elite goalie. However, the series is tied at 2-2 and both Sabres’ wins have been 1-0 shutouts backstopped by Miller. He was terrific in winning the opening game in Philly, but his performance in game four may have been a series, and career changer. His save on former teammate Daniel Briere in that game was a highlight reel one, and Miller may be writing himself a new playoff story this year.

                                                      Andrew Ference salutes Montreal fans after scoring.

Due to some technical difficulties, I wasn’t able to post the preview and prediction for the Stanley Cup opening round playoff series between Buffalo and Philadelphia until after game one was already completed. For that reason, I’ve decided to handicap the prediction by picking the loser of the opening game, the Flyers, to win the series. The two teams have switched roles since last season. In 2009-10, the Sabres won their division title and then proceeded to lose in the first round to the lower-seeded Boston Bruins. This year, they battled all the way to season’s end before finally clinching one of the 8 Eastern Conference spots, clinching the spot by beating the Flyers in overtime in the second-to-last game of the regular season. That was similar to the route the Flyers took to the playoffs last year. Of course, they then shocked the world by advancing all the way to the Cup Finals, where they lost to Patrick Kane and the Chicago Black Hawks. Included in their journey to the finals was a stunning seven game series win over Boston in which they dug themselves out of a 3-0 hole to win. That’s one reason why it’s not difficult to pick the Flyers to win this series, since a 1-0 deficit will hardly intimidate them. I made a point in a previous blog post that the Sabres haven’t proven to me that they have the mental toughness to win a long, grueling series, and that goaltender Ryan Miller has not proven to be the “All-World” netminder he’s hyped up to be. I’ll stand by those comments until proven to be wrong. Miller’s 35 save shutout win in the opener is a good start, but let’s see if he can sustain the high level of play for the entire series. Remember, in last year’s playoffs the Sabres won Game One at home and then pulled ahead in Game Two going into the third period, and in the regular season had been undefeated going into the third period with the lead. They lost to the Bruins in that game and blew another third period lead later in the series and never recovered. I’ll pick the resourceful Flyers to win the series in six games, despite the fact they weren’t playing their best going into the postseason.

The Stanley Cup playoffs begin tonight and just like every other season, there are some really interesting first round matchups. I’ll preview the Buffalo Sabres / Philadelphia Flyers series on Thursday.  Here are my predictions on how the remaining  first round series will turn out:

Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay – this is a 4 vs. 5 matchup as far as seedings go, which should make it a close series. The Lightning are an interesting team. They have a lot of potential scoring ability with players like Vincent LeCavalier, Martin St. Louis, Simon Gagne and young Steven Stamkos, and may benefit from a highly motivated Ryan Malone, a former Penguin. The Pens, on the other hand, are minus Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby ( at least to start the series), who are out with injuries. This pair is not only Pittsburgh’s two best players but two of the best in the NHL. That appears to leave the Penguins at a huge disadvantage, but I’m going to pick them to win the series for 2 reasons – 1) the NHL playoffs are more of a grind-it-out marathon where great offensive players are often negated with tight checking, and the loss of their 2 stars has forced Pittsburgh to play that style to survive, and 2) Marc-Andre Fleury gives the Penguins a big advantage in goal over Tampa’s Dwayne Roloson.

Boston vs. Montreal – there have been some epic, historic series played between these old rivals, and this one should be close. A lot of people are looking at the Bruins as a solid contender to win the Cup, and I feel that they’ll win this series, although it may go the full seven games. The Bruins had mixed results in last year’s playoffs – upsetting higher-seeded Buffalo in the first round, then blowing a 3-0 lead in games to the Flyers and losing in seven games in the second round. The spectre of not being able to close out Philly last year will be hanging over Boston’s collective heads if they jump out to a lead in the series, and Montreal is just the type of team to extend the series to the max. Nothing would please Canadiens’ fans more than knocking off the Bruins, but I don’t see it happening. Boston was a solid team last year, then added Ethan Horton, top draft pick Tyler Seguin, and late trade additions Thomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly. Montreal, on the other hand, traded away the player who was key in them advancing to the conference finals last year – goaltender Jaroslav Halak.

Washington vs. New York Rangers – the Capitals and their star, Alex Ovechkin, are Exhibit A in showing that having flashy players with great offensive ability doesn’t win you Stanley Cups. The Caps were dumped from the playoffs last year by a less-talented Montreal team, even though they had a 3-1 lead in games at one point. The Rangers are a lot like last year’s Canadiens, and have a goalie in Henrik Lundqvist who could get hot and stone the Caps. Washington has got to be highly motivated to erase that playoff upset from last season, and they are a better team than the Rangers, so I’m going to pick them to win the series. They’ve added grinders like Marco Sturm and Jason Arnott to a talented roster, so I see them outlasting the Blueshirts in a long series.

Vancouver vs. Chicago – this may be the most intriguing matchup of all in the first round – the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Canucks, with the best regular season record in the NHL and a roster loaded with talent, against the defending Stanley Cup champions who squeaked into the playoffs this year only because the Dallas Stars couldn’t win their final game. On the surface, this looks like one of those series where the seasoned, playoff-tested defending champs knock out the higher seeded Canucks, who have a history of playoff failure. I see the Canucks winning the series, however. Chicago is nowhere near the team it was when it won the Cup last year. They basically had a fire sale of players after winning the Cup, dumping salaries and losing players who were major contributors last year, including playoff hero Dustin Byfuglien and goalie Antti Niemi. Vancouver has a roster loaded with talent and grit, led by the Sedin twins – Daniel and Henrik, and will win this series, giving the team confidence to make a long run in this year’s tournament.

San Jose vs. Los Angeles – like Vancouver, San Jose has a history of fielding awesome regular season teams that flop in the playoffs. The Kings have one of the NHL’s best young defense corps, led by Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, and some good forwards like Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams and Ryan Smyth. The difference in the 2 teams is between the pipes. The Sharks have better goaltending and more experience, so I see them winning them this all-California series. By the way, the NHL has to be thrilled that California has 3 teams competing for the Cup, including both Los Angeles-based clubs, the Kings and Anaheim Ducks. It can only help to grow the game.

Detroit vs. Phoenix – these 2 teams played a grueling opening round series last year, won by Detroit in seven games. The Wings, with a proud, winning tradition, needed every ounce of effort they had to eliminate the Coyotes last year, then were beaten by eventual champion Chicago. The feeling here is that Detroit, although a strong club, is starting to age somewhat and is vulnerable to being eliminated this year by Phoenix. The Red Wings have problems in goal, while the Coyotes have Ilya Bryzgalov, capable of getting hot and stealing the series on his own. Phoenix has only one 20-goal scorer – captain Shane Doan – but gets balanced scoring from a roster of unknown grinders, just the type of team that thrives in the NHL playoff crucible. I’ll pick the Coyotes to win this series.

Anaheim vs. Nashville – this is not exactly a traditional hockey matchup like Montreal vs. Toronto, but it is a confrontation between two tough, disciplined hockey teams that should be very entertaining. Nashville plays a sound defensive system that should serve them well in the close-checking playoffs, and one player to watch as a potential game-changer for the Predators is newly-acquired forward Mike Fisher ( AKA Carrie Underwood’s husband). Fisher’s style of play is conducive to NHL playoff hockey, and I see him being a force for the Preds. Anaheim won the Cup in 2007 and has a lot of playoff-tested veterans – like Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne, Bobby Ryan and captain Ryan Getzlaff. For that reason, I have the Ducks winning the series, continuing Nashville’s playoff drought. They are winless in five previous Stanley Cup playoff series.