Most experts seem to think that in 2010 the AFC West will be dominated once again by the San Diego Chargers, but I’m not so sure. The Chargers on paper still appear to be the best team in the division, but age, attrition and their lack of postseason success could catch up to them this season. I really don’t see how they can trade the player their offense was built around for so many years, LaDainian Tomlinson, and plug in a rookie and continue on without missing a beat. LT’s production had fallen off the last couple of years but he was still a focal point of the franchise. Now this is really QB Philip Rivers’ team, and he still has a dependable weapon in tight end Antonio Gates, but the team’s new downfield threat, Vincent Jackson, is facing a suspension and may be traded. There were also some significant losses on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers are still the team to beat in the division, but are far from an automatic pick. Coach Josh McDaniels’ Denver Broncos came flying out of the gate last year and looked like they were going to run away with the division, then came crashing down to earth in the second half of the season. If they can stabilize the QB situation and get consistent play there, whether it be from Brady Quinn, incumbent Kyle Orton or rookie Tim Tebow, they could find their way back to the top of the division, and possibly stay there this year. I feel the trade of receiver Brandon Marshall to Miami is a case of addition by subtraction. The Kansas City Chiefs are an intriguing team also. After San Diego with Rivers, they may have the best QB with Matt Cassel. Cassel was inconsistent last year but the year’s experience and the addition of new coordinator Charlie Weis should help elevate his game. The addition of Weis was part of a major revamping of coach Todd Haley’s entire staff that looks like it will make the team stronger. RB Jamaal Charles is a dynamic player and Thomas Jones was signed away from the Jets to add a tough inside running threat to the team’s arsenal. They had a strong draft also, and if their defense can tighten up against the run, they should be in the running to win this division also. The dysfunctional Oakland Raiders bring up the rear in the West. At least they finally cut ties with Jamarcus Russell as their QB of the future. Jason Campbell, acquired from Washington, is an upgrade over Russell but still a question mark. The Raiders have too many highly-touted past draft choices who have underachieved – Darren McFadden and Darius Heyward-Bey being at the top of that list. The team did add stud linebacker Rolando McClain to a solid defense led by veteran Richard Seymour and CB Nnambi Asomugha. The play of the defense will keep them competitive in all of their games, and they may make enough noise in the interdivisional games to help decide who comes out on top of the AFC West, but don’t have the horses or the coaching staff to win it.
Archive for the ‘Football’ Category
NFL – AFC North In 2010
The battle for supremacy in the AFC North division is always a scrappy one each season, and 2010 should be no exception. In handicapping the division, so far from what I’ve seen the Baltimore Ravens look like the team to beat. They will be the favorites of most prognosticators and for good reason. They have a tough, young quarterback in Joe Flacco, a bruising ground game led by the emerging Ray Rice, a good tight end in Todd Heap and added a stellar weapon for Flacco to go to in Anquan Boldin. Their defense is always the focal point of the team and should be again. The only thing that could hold the Ravens back is if age catches up with that defense. Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs are getting up in years and so is star safety Ed Reed, who is even contemplating retirement. The Cincinnati Bengals surprisingly won this division last season by sweeping their division schedule. I don’t see that happening again. Cedric Benson, a cast-off from the Bears, had a career year to lead the running game. I don’t see that happening again either. The Bengals’ good, young defense, along with QB Carson Palmer, should keep them competitive, but their historical track record says that they will falter. The Pittsburgh Steelers, over the long haul, are the class team of this division, but coach Mike Tomlin just has too many issues to overcome this year. Their two Super Bowl heroes of 2 seasons ago, QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Santonio Holmes, had off-season off-the-field issues that led to Holmes being traded and Big Ben being suspended for at least 4 games. The Steelers always have a rough and tumble defense, although their play slipped badly when Troy Polamalu was hurt last year. They too, will be competitive but there’s just too much to overcome. The team does have a reputation for plugging in new guys when they lose players, and young Mike Wallace could emerge as a competent replacement for Holmes, but getting by for a quarter of the schedule without your starting QB is a tough situation. The Cleveland Browns have been a laughing-stock in recent years but made some noise at the end of the year by winning their last 4 games, probably saving coach Eric Mangini’s job. New team president Mike Holmgren has them headed in the right direction. They handled their quarterback controversy in a very unique way – trading away both Brady Quinn (to Denver) and Derek Anderson (to Arizona) and bringing in all new people – Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace and draft choice Colt McCoy – to compete for the job. If they can get decent QB play the Browns could be the surprise team in this competitive division, but i like the Ravens at this point.
NFL – Will The Saints Repeat?
The New Orleans Saints completed a truly magical season with their Super Bowl victory over Peyton Manning’s Colts last season. Now comes the tough part – repeating. The Saints established last season that they are the best offensive team in the NFL, with Drew Brees elevating his play to the level of other current championship QBs like Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, and the running game grinding out tough yards mostly by committee. Add in Reggie Bush’s penchant for making electric plays and you have an offense that’s tough to stop. The Saints’ defense wasn’t dominating statistically but helped win games by creating turnovers. Prior to the Super Bowl all the experts predicted the Saints would lose because their defense would not be able to either stop Peyton Manning or create turnovers against the Colts. So what happened? The Saints iced the game with Tracy Porter’s late-game interception return for a touchdown. Conventional wisdom says that the way to stop a team that has a dominating offense and an average defense that relies on turnovers is to run a ball-control run-oriented offense. The idea is to stop the dominating offense by keeping them off the field and limiting their opportunities, while also limiting your own team’s turnovers by moving the ball on the ground and not putting it up for grabs. You also have to play tough defense. There are two teams playing in the same division as the Saints, the NFC South, that have the stout rushing attack needed to play ball control – the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. The Panthers, however, have too many negative issues (no set QB, losing Julius Peppers on defense, coach John Fox being on the hot seat) to contend with the Saints. Atlanta, with a bright young QB in Matt Ryan, a dominating runner in Michael Turner and a rugged defense, could overtake the Saints depending on how much of a “Super Bowl hangover” the Saints have when the season begins. The other team in the division, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are young and need a couple of years to rebuild before they are taken seriously, but did play competitively last year and even pulled off an upset win over the Saints near the end of the season.
NFL – AFC South
The biggest question in the AFC South every season is who is going to challenge the Indianapolis Colts for supremacy in the division? The Colts, although they’ve become the “Atlanta Braves of the NFL” by dominating their division but only winning one Super Bowl, are still the favorite in this division. The Houston Texans are a chic pick every year to overtake the Colts because they have a roster loaded with great, young talent, but they almost always seem to find creative ways to get at or near the .500 mark by season’s end. They had their first winning season last year by finishing 9-7 and that seemed to set off a celebration that they have arrived. I see them disappointing their fans by staying the course and being mediocre as usual, possibly costing Gary Kubiak his coaching job. The Tennessee Titans are the real threat to the Colts’ dominance. They rebounded after a horrific start last season to make a run at the playoffs but came up short. The resurgence of Vince Young at quarterback coincided with the team’s rebound, and I feel they will be ready from day one to make a run at the division title this year. Veteran coach Jeff Fisher will have his team ready to go. The Jacksonville Jaguars are always a competitive team and will probably pull a couple upsets that affect the final standings in the division, but no matter how you slice it they appear to be the weakest team in the division and should finish last.
NFL – NFC East in 2010
Handicapping the NFC East division for the 2010 season is difficult because the division has undergone a lot of changes in the off-season. The division pretty much consists of 3 unknowns, and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are usually the choice to win the division and the fact that they got the playoff victory “monkey” off their collective backs last season makes them stand out as the team to beat. I feel that they are good enough to finish second in the division and contend for a wild card. The Philadelphia Eagles have been undergoing a youth movement for a couple of seasons now, adding explosive new weapons like DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy to their offense while also turning over much of their defense to younger players. They made the ultimate commitment to youth this off-season by trading QB Donovan McNabb to Washington and deciding to go with Kevin Kolb. This is probably, at least for this year, going to be a boom or bust decision for the Eagles. My opinion is that despite Kolb’s obvious upside, the Eagles are going to find out just how much McNabb has meant to their success over the years by tumbling to the bottom of the division standings this year. The Redskins will go into this season with high expectations with the additions of McNabb and new coach Mike Shanahan, and they will improve enough to overtake the Eagles and finish third, showing measurable improvement as the season goes on and fueling hope for 2011. That leaves the New York Giants as my choice to win the divison. The Giants, after starting last season 5-0, did an unbelievable tank job and fell completely off the map by season’s end. The defense was atrocious and this team, only 2 years removed from winning the Super Bowl, out-and-out quit on the coaching staff in the last few games. Coach Tom Coughlin is the type of person who will right this ship, and made one major hire to help achieve this by bringing in Perry Fewell to coordinate the defense. Fewell did a great job of infusing some energy into a lifeless Buffalo team when he finished the season as their interim head coach, and is the perfect hire to run the the Giants’ defense. I see the Giants “D” being a dominant unit again, and Coughlin doing whatever he needs to do to weed out the quitters, putting the Giants back into position to be Super Bowl contenders again.
NFL – the rest of the AFC East
I wrote a post awhile back picking the New York Jets to win the AFC East this season, but what about the rest of the division? New England, with Bill Belichick as coach, always has to be taken seriously as a contender, and Miami, under Bill Parcells’ overall guidance, rose from the dead 2 years ago only to backslide last season. I feel the Patriots will contend but they have gotten to the point where they’ve become arrogant in thinking they can just dump players and plug in replacements without missing a beat. In my opinion they made a mistake in trading away Richard Seymour prior to last season and missed his presence, on the field and in the locker room. They made another personnel mistake bringing in LB Adalius Thomas, and admitted that mistake by cutting him recently. I see the Pats contending for the AFC East crown but settling for a wild card. I give them a slight advantage over Miami for one reason – the quarterback position. Tom Brady is in somewhat of a decline but he’s still miles ahead of the Dolphins’ Chad Henne. Most prognosticators, when handicapping this division, don’t even mention the Buffalo Bills. They have become that irrelevant to the national media the last decade, other than the Terrell Owens distraction last year. They will go into this season, under new coach Chan Gailey, with zero expectations, which is not a bad spot for a young, growing team. There is a mistaken assumption that the Bills have no talent at all. Actually, there is a wealth of potential talent on this team, but the situation was skewed by the fact that 20 players wound up on injured reserve last season and they finished the season with a very depleted roster. The Bills can surprise some people if Gailey is successful at 2 things – sorting through the roster he has and maximizing the talents of the young players, and finding and developing a competent, not great but competent, quarterback among the 4 he has to work with.
NFL – Jets are loaded for bear
It’s been quite an off-season for the New York Jets. After their surprising run through the AFC playoffs last season, they have done anything but stand pat with their roster. Most of the draft experts claim that pairing #1 pick Kyle Wilson with all-universe Darrelle Revis at the cornerback spots will make the Jets’ defense impossible to score on this season. Let me be the devil’s advocate here – for one, the games still have to be played on the field. Also, the Jets’ moves of adding Ladainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes and others have the distinct smell of being Dan Snyder-like fantasy team moves, adding big names and assuming that your team will now be all-world. I’m interested to see what effect the subtractions of players like Allan Faneca, Kerry Rhodes and Thomas Jones have on the club. That being said, my opinion is that the Jets will be an improved team, a major force in the AFC, for one reason – because of their coach, Rex Ryan. Ryan is a guy who defies conventional wisdom, ignores the usual excuse-laden coach-speak and has high expectations of himself and his team, and a high energy level. Look for the Jets to win the AFC East this season.