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After putting on quite a performance in Baltimore last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick, in the eyes of at least some fans, has emerged as possibly being “the guy” to lead the Buffalo Bills out of the losing wilderness they’ve been in for a decade. The Bills’ front office, and coach Chan Gailey, have to be pleased with the way the entire offense has improved since Fitzpatrick took the reins from Trent Edwards. Whether or not the team gets the top pick in the draft, and whether they decide to use that pick to draft a “franchise” quarterback or not, will depend on how the rest of this season plays out. In fact, the remainder of the season will pretty much make the decision for them. If they wind up with the top pick, it will mean that Fitz’s play leveled out as the season went on, and he looks like the “career backup” that is the description that he’s had up to this point. If he continues to improve and the offense thrives and the team starts to win, it’ll mean that the draft pick the team winds up with won’t be a top 5 pick anyway, so the front office can concentrate on finding some impact defensive players. There’s also the possibility that the offense thrives, Fitzpatrick puts a stranglehold on the starting job, and the defense continues to be awful, resulting in a lot of 38-35 losses, and the Bills still wind up with the NFL’s worst record. In that case, the scouts will need to find the next Bruce Smith instead of the next Jim Kelly, or they could trade the pick to accumulate extra picks to shore up the roster. Fitzpatrick, a Harvard graduate who certainly is intelligent enough to run an NFL offense, has had ups and downs since regaining the starting job he actually won last year, but one thing is certain. His play has raised the level of play of the rest of his offensive teammates. Since he has been put in the lineup, the play of the offensive line has been better – or has he made them look better by making better decisions, getting rid of the ball quicker and avoiding sacks? The receiving corps, which looked weak at the start of the season, is suddenly making all kinds of plays. Lee Evans had one of his most productive games in years at Baltimore, Roscoe Parrish’s speed and talents are being utilized again and Stevie Johnson, who looked lost at the start of the year, is an emerging star. David Nelson has made big plays in limited playing time, and even the tight ends have been used in the offense – something the Bills never seem to do. The running game, expected to be the featured part of the offense, has been effective when used, and should be even better when opponents have to respect the pass. Even with an 0-6 record, the rest of the season will be interesting in Buffalo as the Ryan Fitzpatrick story plays out.

Fitzpatrick’s situation got me to thinking about players throughout the NFL’s history who’ve risen from obscurity to stardom at the QB position over the years. For every top draft pick superstar like Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman and Phil Simms, there’s a rags to riches story like Jim Plunkett, Rich Gannon, John Unitas or Mark Rypien, players who came off the scrap heap, or were considered “career backups”, who made the most of an opportunity to lead a team to a championship. There are 2 examples from the 1960s that mirror Fitzpatrick’s NFL career so far.

In the mid-1950s the NFL draft was 20+ rounds long, and Bart Starr was an afterthought 17th round draft pick out of Alabama in 1956 by Green Bay. When Vince Lombardi took over the Packers in 1959, he played Babe Parilli and Lamar McHan at QB with mixed results, and threw Starr in occasionally but was unimpressed with his play. Starr wasn’t a physically gifted athlete and was on the shy side. His best asset was intelligence, and when Lombardi tired of the mental mistakes being made by the other QBs, he gave Starr his opportunity, then committed to him as the permanent starter. Five championships, and 6 title appearances in 8 years, were Lombardi’s reward for trusting in Starr.

Dr. Frank Ryan, a PHD in mathematics, kicked around the NFL for 4 years as the Rams’ backup QB before being traded to Cleveland in 1962. Ryan, like Starr known for his smarts rather than his athletic ability and considered a reserve QB at best, was acquired by the Browns to back up starter Jim Ninowski. But when Ninowski broke his collarbone Ryan was forced into the lineup. He slowly gained the confidence of his teammates and the coaching staff and wound up keeping the starting job for 6 years before being forced to retire because of injuries. He threw for 25 touchdowns with 13 interceptions in 1963, and in ’64, led the NFL in TD passes and guided the Browns to a surprise 27-0 win over Don Shula’s heavily-favored Baltimore Colts in the league title game.

Bart Starr (left) and Frank Ryan.

It was easily their best effort this season, but the bottom line is the Buffalo Bills fell to 0-6 on Sunday in Baltimore, losing a 37-34 overtime heartbreaker to the Ravens. Let’s get the negatives out of the way first. The Bills lost mostly because they did what losing teams do – turned the ball over too many times, made mistakes at the worst possible times, and couldn’t get stops on defense when they needed them. The secondary was completely fooled on a flea flicker play, and still can’t figure out how to cover an opposing tight end to save their lives.  However, there were two plays in the game in which the Bills got really bad breaks. An end zone interception by Reggie Corner late in the first half was negated when he was ruled out of bounds. On the play, Corner had perfect coverage and made an outstanding one-handed catch while the Raven receiver held his other arm. Corner came down clearly inbounds, but one foot was on the ground, the other on the receiver’s ankle. He landed on top of the receiver, who then rolled him over out of bounds. The ruling was that Corner never got the second foot down. The play was technically a correct call according to the NFL rule book, and all I’ll say is that the NFL rule book needs an infusion of some common sense. So, the Bills don’t get the interception, don’t get the blatant offensive interference call, and the Ravens not only get a field goal, but C.J. Spiller fumbles the ensuing kickoff and the Ravens get a touchdown on the next play. The 24-10 lead the Bills built up is cut to 24-20 at halftime, and the Ravens now have the momentum. The other play was the fumble by tight end Shawn Nelson in overtime. Nelson, playing for the first time since coming off suspension, was stripped of the ball around midfield by Ray Lewis on a play that was a classic case of a player’s forward progress being stopped. The whistle wasn’t blown, of course, and then to compound the mistake, center Geoff Hangartner took off his helmet and slammed it to the ground, drawing an automatic personal foul penalty that handed the Ravens their winning field goal position. Another case of doing what losing teams do – finding a way to do whatever it takes to give the game away. Once the Bills correct that problem, they’ll start winning. There’s no doubt that their offense is gradually improving each week. Surprisingly, they shredded a solid Baltimore defense for over 500 yards, including Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 374 passing yards, the first Bill to throw for over 300 in 65 games. The running game, using both Spiller and Fred Jackson, was effective, although the game plan obviously was to throw on the Ravens. Lee Evans and Stevie Johnson had monster games, and Roscoe Parrish and David Nelson made plays also. Fitzpatrick is spreading the ball around nicely, and if he can clean up the interceptions, this team will win some games before the season’s over. Even the defense showed some progress coming out of the bye. They forced a couple of turnovers, got at least some pressure on Joe Flacco and kept their team in the game for the most part, despite being  put in bad field position situations by the turnovers throughout the game, including overtime. Sunday’s game should at least be a confidence builder for the Bills, who now realize they can compete with anybody and win as long as they don’t get beat by their toughest opponent, themselves.

It was a much better week predicting NFL games last week, as I got back on the plus side by picking 9 of 14 games correctly. The overall record for the year, after 6 weeks, stands at 51 right and 38 wrong. Here are the choices for week seven:

Buffalo at Baltimore – the Ravens’ overtime loss at New England last week will have them in a foul mood going into this game. I agree with Ray Lewis, who said he feels sorry for the Bills this week. Baltimore wins a game that will be effectively over by halftime.

Cincinnati at Atlanta – Atlanta is still a contender in the NFC South, despite being trampled by the Eagles last week. The Bengals are just too inconsistent to win a game against a quality opponent, especially on the road. Carson Palmer’s game has gone south for some reason, so I see Atlanta winning this one.

Pittsburgh at Miami – this is going to be a hard-fought game, and I suspect the Dolphins defense is going to make it a lot harder on Ben Roethlisberger than the Browns did last week. However, the Steelers have an even better defense, so they’ll win a close, low scoring game.

Jacksonville at Kansas City –  the Jaguars were awful on Monday night, and should play better this week whether David Garrard or Trent Edwards is at quarterback. The Chiefs are also coming off a loss, a heartbreaker in Houston, and at this point they are headed in a positive direction as a team, while the Jags are going nowhere. Kansas City wins at home to stay in the hunt for the AFC West title.

Cleveland at New Orleans – the Saints rebooted their season last week with a big win over Tampa Bay, and will dominate the young Browns at home. Young back Chris Ivory picked up the slack in the running game for the Saints with both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas out with injuries. 

Washington at Chicago – both of these teams have had their ups and downs this year and both are struggling to establish an identity, the Redskins with a new head coach and QB, and the Bears with a new, aggressive offensive coordinator. Chicago’s defense will be the difference at home, as Donovan McNabb spends the day running for his life from Julius Peppers. 

San Francisco at Carolina – the 49ers did just enough right to pull out their first win last week, while Carolina is now playing musical quarterbacks, going back to Matt Moore for this week. I’ll pick San Francisco to make it 2 in a row, starting them on the road to getting back into the NFC West race.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay – both of these teams are on the rise, although the Buccaneers were brought back to earth by the Saints last week. The Rams are going to be a force in their division this season, but I’ll take the Bucs to get back on track with a win in this game.

Philadelphia at Tennessee – I would normally go with the Titans at home, but their QB situation worries me. The Eagles will miss DeSean Jackson but Kevin Kolb has gotten the job done at quarterback, and Philly seems to find ways to win. The Eagles are motivated to keep pace in the wild NFC East race, and I see them winning this game. 

Arizona at Seattle – the Seahawks were impressive winning in Chicago last week, but they are inconsistent, like every other team in the NFC West. Arizona’s rookie QB, Max Hall, will struggle in the loud road atmosphere, and the Seahawks will win. Despite their inconsistency the Hawks got a positive jolt from acquiring Marshawn Lynch, and the difference in the game will be the home field advantage.

New England at San Diego – the Chargers lost to the Rams last week so it’s difficult to pick them over New England. The Bolts are usually better at home, but the Patriots are in a tough race in their division and need to keep pace with the Jets, so I see them sneaking out a win on the road.

Oakland at Denver –  normally I would pick the Raiders in this AFC West matchup but they are having QB issues and it looks like they’ll be starting Kyle Boller at the position in this game. I like Denver to win but the Raiders’ defense will keep the game competitive.

Minnesota at Green Bay – Brett Favre got his revenge last year by leading the Vikes to a season sweep of his old team, but he isn’t playing at the same level now. I like the Packers at home, even though they’re banged up and lost at home to Miami last week.

New York Giants at Dallas – the Cowboys have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL but continue to lose games because of stupidity. The fact that they got an excessive celebration penalty in the next game after the same penalty cost them a game tells me that Wade Phillips has no control over the massive egos in his locker room. Those egos will get knocked down yet another peg this week as the improving Giants continue to march toward a division title with a big win, which will eliminate the Cowboys from any serious playoff contention.

Buffalo Bills’ fans can rejoice after this weekend’s round of NFL football games. For the first time this season, their Bills didn’t lose, as they were on their bye week. Hopefully the coaching staff is working diligently to fix all the problems this team has, including an inconsistent offense, poor special teams kick coverage and the worst defense in the NFL.

The offense has actually been steadily improving since Ryan Fitzpatrick took the reins at quarterback. The running game has been good since Fred Jackson became the lead back after Marshawn Lynch was traded. The offensive line play is much improved as the line looks like it is starting to show some cohesion, and the coaches have made some subtle moves, waiving Jamon Meredith and slowly working Craig Urbik and Mansfield Wrotto, two players signed after the final cuts, onto the field. Fitzpatrick has done a decent job of spreading the ball around among the receivers, with Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Stevie Johnson all making contributions, something that wasn’t happening when Trent Edwards was directing the offense.

There isn’t much the coaches are going to be able to do to improve the defense this year. The players just aren’t there. They can’t stop the run at all, have generated no pass rush at all, and, despite supposedly having pretty good athletes in the secondary, have had problems covering receivers, especially opposing tight ends. In my opinion the problem lies with a weak linebacker corps. In a 3-4 defense, the three down linemen are supposed to tie up blockers, freeing up the linebackers to make plays both in the running game and the passing game. The Bills linemen aren’t superstars, but players like Kyle Williams, Marcus Stroud, Spencer Johnson, and Dwan Edwards have held their own. I do believe the Bills have good athletes in the secondary, but when there’s no pass rush the secondary is going to wind up looking bad. Jairus Byrd was a bright spot for the team last year, as he picked off 9 passes and was a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. This year Byrd has been invisible defensing the pass, and has missed a lot of tackles, as run support is not his strength. That is part of the problem. The players in the secondary are having to make a lot of tackles since the linebackers seem to be nowhere to be found on most plays. They are either out of position or getting blown off the line of scrimmage on almost every play. Chris Kelsay is not making the adjustment to linebacker very well, although the coaches must think differently since he was signed to a contract extension. Paul Posluszny has had trouble avoiding injuries, and although he consistently is among the team’s leading tacklers, most of them seem to come 15 yards downfield. Keith Ellison is a good special teams player but he’s a backup at best at LB. Andra Davis, Reggie Torbor and Akin Ayodele  were all brought in off the street, which was a sign that the front office wasn’t thrilled with what was on the roster to begin with. Coach Chan Gailey was quoted as saying that he likes how rookies Arthur Moats and Antonio Coleman are improving, and is anxious to get them some playing time. The fact that he didn’t mention Aaron Maybin along with them speaks volumes. Chris Ellis, another defensive end trying to transition to LB, is already off the roster, and Maybin may be the next to go.  

The Bills will need to address the linebacker position in the off-season, but if they wind up with a top 3 draft pick they will almost certainly pick a quarterback. Taking a look at defensive players on the Bills’ roster who become free agents after this season, the team has an opportunity to clear out some big “high draft choice” salaries of players who haven’t lived up to their potential. Those players include Posluszny, safety Donte Whitner and end John McCargo. That will free up some salary space for a potential free agent or two to help the defense. So, after daydreaming last week about the possibility of adding Andrew Luck as the future franchise QB, here are some stud defensive players who are free agents after this season who could help the Bills:

Shawne Merriman, LB (San Diego) – Merriman may actually be released by the Chargers soon, and the Bills, with their winless record, would probably have an opportunity to claim him off waivers. Merriman was drafted by San Diego when Bills’ GM Buddy Nix was there, so there’s a history. Merriman, though, is a risk. His play has deteriorated over the years and he’s been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. He’s not the type of player the Bills would normally go after, but they are so desperate to generate some kind of pass rush that they might claim him if he’ll sign cheaply.  

Lamarr Woodley, LB (Pittsburgh) – Woodley plays second fiddle to James Harrison with the Steelers, and may want to change teams to establish is own identity, like Bart Scott did when he signed with the Jets. The team has a history of letting good LBs walk, and then replacing them with somebody better, so there’s a good possibility Woodley could be available.

David Harris, LB (NY Jets) – Harris is a young star playing on a team loaded with high salaries, and could be available also. He is head and shoulders above anybody on Buffalo’s roster now.

Richard Seymour, DT (Oakland) – Seymour was a star on New England’s Super Bowl teams, then was traded to the Raiders and it seems like he fell off the face of the earth. He is still a productive player and could bring some valuable experience to the team’s defense.

Of course, the chances of the Bills actually signing any of these guys is remote. Remember, in last year’s off-season, while Miami was acquiring WR Brandon Marshall and LB Karlos Dansby, the Bills were signing Torbor and WR Chad Jackson (cut in the preseason).

Week five was another forgettable one as I slipped below the .500 mark again, picking 6 right and 8 wrong. That puts the season record at 42 on the plus side, and 33 wrong. Here are the picks for week six:

Miami at Green Bay – Miami gets the Packers at a perfect time, as QB Aaron Rodgers is recovering from a concussion, and star tight end Jermichael Finley is lost for the season. Green Bay already lost its’ top running back, so their offense is in trouble. Also, LB Clay Matthews is hurt so the defense will be hurting. Miami should win this game using a large dose of their running game, featuring Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams.

San Diego at St. Louis – picking the Chargers to win scares me, but this is the type of game they have to find a way to win to stay in contention in the AFC West, and I believe they will. The Rams got plastered by Detroit last week so they’ll be motivated and should play better, especially at home, but the Chargers will pull out the victory.

Baltimore at New England – rematch of last year’s playoff game that saw the Ravens shock the Pats by running the ball down their throats, forcing turnovers and winning easily. This is New England’s first game without Randy Moss, and even though they re-acquired Deion Branch to replace him the passing game will need time to mesh. Baltimore is too good of a team and their defense will be the difference. The Ravens win on the road, in a game that’ll be much closer than the playoff game last year.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh –  this game has blowout written all over it. Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup for the Steelers after serving his suspension, and the Browns start rookie Colt McCoy as both Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are hurt. Pittsburgh’s defense dominates the game and the Steelers win big.

Kansas City at Houston –  this game may sort out which of these teams is an actual contender, and which is the pretender. The Texans are usually better at home, but Kansas City’s defensive effort in a tough loss last week at Indianapolis was impressive. I’ll pick the Chiefs to continue their progress by upsetting Houston on the road.

Detroit at New York Giants – in picking last week’s games I commented that the Lions were a better team than their winless record showed, and they came up with a huge home win over the Rams. The Giants’ defense, however, is looking great and should bottle up the young Lions at home. Lions’ standout receiver Calvin Johnson is banged up and the Lions need all their weapons to compete. New York should win this game handily.

Atlanta at Philadelphia –  it’s uncertain whether Michael Vick will be ready to play against his old team, but regardless who is under center for the Eagles this week, I’ll take Atlanta to win on the road. The Falcons consider themselves to be serious contenders and with division rival New Orleans struggling, they smell blood.

Seattle at Chicago – hopefully Jay Cutler is back at QB for the Bears, but even if it’s Todd Collins, the Bears’ defense should throttle the inconsistent Seahawks. With the game being played at Soldier Field, I like the Bears in a rout as Seattle historically doesn’t travel well.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – this is a chance for the young Buccaneers to make a statement in their division, and announce their arrival as a contending team. I don’t think they’re quite there yet, and the Saints have got to play with some urgency this week after that shocking loss to Arizona last week. The Saints win a close game with their passing game taking over in the fourth quarter.

New York Jets at Denver – The Jets are on a roll and really have looked liked one of the top teams in the league so far. This is a tough test for them on the road, but I feel their defense will confuse Kyle Orton enough to force a turnover or two which will be the difference in the game. The Jets win a close game with a big 4th quarter.

Oakland at San Francisco – the 49ers were everybody’s preseason pick to win the NFC West, and they are  0-5.  Are they ever going to win a game? The answer is yes – this week at home against the Raiders. Any team that faces the Raiders winds up in a dogfight, but the Niners are desperate enough to win that fight.

Dallas at Minnesota – this game is between 2 teams that were favored to contend for the Super Bowl this year, and both are struggling. The season may be over for the team that loses, and their head coach goes immediately to the hot seat. The Vikings blew out the Cowboys at home in last year’s playoffs, and the ‘Boys show no signs of coming out of their funk, in which they’ve played inconsistent, undisciplined football. The Vikings win this game, with Brett Favre having his best day of the year so far, taking advantage of Dallas’ mistake-prone secondary.

Indianapolis at Washington – Mike Shanahan has the ‘Skins playing over their heads, and Peyton Manning hasn’t been his usual surgical, pinpoint self so far this year. However, he usually rises to the occasion in prime time games so I see the Colts winning on the road.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – the Titans have been disappointing so far this year, and the Jaguars a surprising success. This is a division game so it should be close, but the Titans’ defense will be the difference as they harrass David Garrard all day. On offense, the Titans will ride a huge day by Chris Johnson to a well-earned victory.

This NFL season is only 5 weeks old and already it is extremely depressing if you’re a Buffalo Bills’ fan. The team has a bye this week and it couldn’t come at a better time for the fans, who have to be suffering from failure overload after watching this team play so far this year. Most prognosticators had the Bills finishing around 2-14 for the year and most likely having the top pick in next year’s college draft, and even though I saw it differently, that a team that was 7-9, 7-9 and 6-10 for the last 3 years should improve on that, it’s not going to happen. So I’m giving in and assuming that the Bills will be looking for that elusive franchise quarterback next April. Frankly, I think the team needs impact defensive players, mostly linebackers (especially if they plan on staying the course with the 3-4 defense), but there’s little doubt that if they have the top pick, they’ll use it on a QB. For Bills’ fans who need something to make this dismal season a little easier to swallow, here’s a peek into the team’s possible future. I took a look at scouting reports, highlight videos and interview videos of the players considered the top 3 QBs coming out in the next draft, and here’s a rundown of that trio of prospects, followed by my opinion about who the Bills should pick, if the draft were held today:

Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) – Mallett is an imposing physical specimen at 6’7″ and 238 lbs. He has a great arm and they say he can make all the throws necessary to play at the next level. Here’s what I don’t like in his scouting report – not very accurate, bad footwork, not real mobile, needs to improve decision making, can be a statue at times in the pocket. Translation: Trent Edwards Jr. Also, for some reason, the scouts say he has “potential for some character issues”, which I don’t quite understand. To me, you’ve either proven you’re an idiot or you haven’t – you can’t have “potential” bad character.

Jake Locker (Washington) – he’s the only senior among the top 3, and supposedly if he’d decided to come out last year he would have been rated higher than Sam Bradford, who was the top choice. Locker is 6’3″ and 226 lbs., and looks impressive in highlight videos. He has an above average arm, is extremely mobile, has good mechanics and plays in a pro style offense at Washington. The negatives on him are that he lacks field vision, tends to lock on to a single receiver, and hasn’t been a winner (his college won-lost record with the Huskies is 8-20).

Andrew Luck (Stanford) – Luck is actually only a redshirt sophomore but is eligible to come out next year. He’s 6’4″ and weighs 235 lbs., and after reading the scouting reports and watching the interview and highlight videos, if I were making the pick for the Bills, I’d choose Luck. His only negative is lack of experience, but despite that, here’s what the scouts have to say about his overall game: unflappable, great poise and pocket awareness, makes quick and smart decisions, exceptional technique, great footwork, no wasted motion in his throwing delivery, strong arm and great accuracy, even when moving out of the pocket.

Like I said, if I were making the pick today, my choice would be Luck. Actually, when watching interview videos, Luck was the brightest  but I was most impressed with an interview video of Levi Brown, currently the Bills’ 3rd QB, even more so than any of the three top prospects for next year. In the end, Luck seems to stand out. Even though he plays at the same school as Trent Edwards, he is a much better prospect than Trent. To be the quarterback in Buffalo, you can’t be one of these robotic surgical technicians – you have to, above all else, be a REAL FOOTBALL PLAYER!! You have to be able to play in horrible weather, throw accurately in windy conditions and be a leader. So what sealed the deal for me was this video of a play Luck made in a game against USC. Check it out below.

Luck Lays Out USC’s Wright

The Buffalo Bills fell to 0-5 for the season on Sunday by losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 36-26, taking their place along with Carolina and San Francisco as the NFL’s only remaining winless teams. The Bills may not be the worst team in the league, but there’s no doubt that their defense, trying to transition to a new 3-4 scheme, is the worst defense in the NFL. Jacksonville signed Trent Edwards after the Bills released him because their starting quarterback, David Garrard, was playing horribly and when he was benched, backup Cade McCown was injured, so they were desperate for another option. Yet Buffalo’s defense made Garrard look like Peyton Manning on Sunday, as the Jags scored on 8 of their 11 possessions in the game. Their punter never saw the field. The Jaguars actually did most of their damage the way every opponent has – with their running game. But Garrard completed 16 of 20 passes for 3 touchdowns, so he was a positive factor. His favorite target was Marcedes Lewis, as the Bills, once again, got burned by an opponent’s tight end. Jacksonville rushed for over 200 yards, the fourth consecutive Bills’ opponent to accomplish that. The Bills gave up over 30 points for the fourth straight game. The most frustrating part of all this is that every team does the same thing – runs the ball, throws to the tight end – and the Bills still have no clue how to slow their opponents down, let alone stop anything. New coordinator George Edwards has no answers, and again, just like in the cases of Gregg Williams, Jerry Gray, Mike Mularkey, Tom Clements, Perry Fewell, Alex Van Pelt,etc. – Bills fans have to put up with another inexperienced coach getting his on-the-job training here while the team’s fortunes go down the drain for yet another season. In hindsight, the switch to a 3-4 defense looks like a bad idea since the team doesn’t have even a single NFL-calibre linebacker on it’s roster. This is probably beating a dead horse, but when former first round draft picks like John McCargo and Aaron Maybin can’t even play their way into the lineup on a defense this bad, they are now officially busts.

The offense probably played well enough to win this game, if the defense had shown up at all. They weren’t perfect, as they blew a first-and-goal opportunity at the one yard line with a couple of bad penalties, but they scored enough points and sustained drives long enough to give the team a chance. Fred Jackson had a decent game running the ball, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 TD passes and engineered 5 scoring drives. The special teams were bad this week, giving up long returns and not getting much on any of their own returns. Usually reliable punter Brian Moorman even had a mediocre day. One other positive out of this game is that the Bills won’t lose this week – they have a bye. That gives Chan Gailey 2 weeks to try to figure out how to field some semblance of a defense for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, none of the answers appear to be on the current roster or on the defensive coaching staff. They may be better off assuming the defense is going to give up at least 30 points a game and put their efforts toward trying to gear the offense to outscore opponents the rest of the way. Looking at the remaining schedule, the Lions’ 0-16 record of a couple years ago is definitely within reach for this team.

Last week was the first week for byes on the NFL schedule so there were only 14 games to pick. My final record for the week was 9 right and 5 wrong, bringing the tally for the year through 4 weeks to a respectable 36 right and 25 wrong. Here are my week 5 choices:

Jacksonville at Buffalo – the Bills have run a gauntlet of games that included all 3 of their tough division rivals and Super Bowl contender Green Bay, and haven’t been competitive in 3 of those games. Jacksonville looked like it may be a team the Bills could handle, then the Jaguars shocked the Colts last week. Still, I believe the Bills will break the ice this week and win this game with Fred Jackson having a productive day.

Denver at Baltimore – it’s crazy that the Broncos could trade away Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall and then lead the NFL in passing, and if Baltimore’s defense is vulnerable at all, it’s in the secondary. The Ravens’ front seven, however, will make it a long day for Kyle Orton and Baltimore will win at home.

Kansas City at Indianapolis –  the final unbeaten team in the league goes down as Indy brings the Chiefs back down to earth with a big win at home. The problem for K.C. is they are catching the Colts coming off a disappointing last second loss in Jacksonville and will be facing the wrath of a totally focused Peyton Manning & Co.

Green Bay at Washington – it was surprising that the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, but I’m not sure they would have, had Mike Vick not been hurt. Green Bay has some issues with a lack of a big time running back and injuries on defense. However, the Packers pull out a close win on the road behind a big passing day by Aaron Rodgers.

St. Louis at Detroit – battle of 2 recent NFL sadsacks who are both on the rise. The Rams have won 2 in a row behind prize rookie QB Sam Bradford, but I see the hard luck Lions getting their first win of the season at home. They are a much better team than their 0-4 record.

Chicago at Carolina – the Panthers, even with their quarterback problems, are not a terrible team. The fact that they’re winless is one of the big surprises so far this year. Coach John Fox will figure out a way to get ex-Panther Julius Peppers blocked in this game and Carolina will have success running the ball and pull off the upset. The Bears were awful on Sunday night as the Giants provided a blueprint on how to shut down Jay Cutler and the Chicago offense, which opened the season doing great in Mike Martz’s system but is really lacking in potent weapons.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati – the Bengals are disappointing with their inconsistent play and I’m reluctant to pick them, but they’ll stay awake at home and beat the young Buccaneers. Cincinnati needs to use Cedric Benson and their running game more instead of worrying about keeping all their diva receivers happy.

Atlanta at Cleveland – Browns are  riding high after upsetting the Bengals last week and will stay close but the Falcons have too much talent and won’t lose their focus, as they need to keep winning to keep pace with the Saints in their division.

New York Giants at Houston – earlier in the season I would have picked Houston to win this game in a blowout, but the Giants’ defense is beginning to round into form. The Texans still have enough firepower, though, and I’ll pick them to win at home. Suspended LB Brian Cushing will be back to help shore up Houston’s defense.

New Orleans at Arizona – the Cardinals are fading fast and in a desperation move will start undrafted rookie Max Hall at QB this week. There’s no way an untested rookie will keep up with Drew Brees.  The Saints will win in a rout.

Tennessee at Dallas – I really thought the Titans would build on the momentum they gained in the second half of last season, and be a much better team than they’ve shown so far this year. Dallas, coming off a bye and now ready to right the ship, will win at home.

San Diego at Oakland – the games between these old AFL rivals are usually hotly contested. The Chargers are off to their usual slow start, and are inconsistent, especially on the road. I like Oakland in a close game, hopefully not having to be decided by kicker Sebastian Janikowski again.

Philadelphia at San Francisco – historically the Eagles always seem to own the 49ers, even when they have to travel west and play them on the road. However, I believe coach Mike Singletary’s team finally gets its’ first win of the season as the defense smothers Kevin Kolb and shuts down the Philly offense.

Minnesota at New York Jets – the addition of Randy Moss to the Vikings’ roster should give the team a spark, but I don’t think Brett Favre is going to have much success against the Jet defense, and frankly, I’m not sure his heart is in it this season after having to be coaxed out of retirement by his teammates.