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Week 10 was the worst week yet for predictions, as I wound up below the .500 mark with 6 right and 8 wrong. Here are some comments made on the games picked last week:

Lions vs Bills – “I’m going to resist the temptation to pick Buffalo”. I did resist, and of course the Bills won.

Texans vs Jaguars – “Jags’ coach Del Rio always has his team motivated and playing well in important division games”. – I picked Houston and Del Rio’s motivated Jags won.

Cowboys vs Giants – “Cowboys should get somewhat of a bounce from the coaching change” – they did, and won, but I picked the Giants.

Patriots vs Steelers – “Normally the Pats are the type of team that rebounds strongly from a thrashing like they took last week” – yes, indeed they are, and they beat the Steelers. Unfortunately I picked Pittsburgh.

The moral of the story is sometimes you’re better off going with your initial gut reaction. For the season, my record now stands at 81 right and 62 wrong. Here are the week eleven choices:

Chicago at Miami – this week’s Thursday night game. The Dolphins lost 2 quarterbacks last week, and have a short week to get ready with third-stringer Tyler Thigpen. Although I think Thigpen will play well, I also think the Bears are beginning to get on a roll. Chicago wins a close, low scoring game.

Buffalo at Cincinnati – the Bills finally won last week, and amazingly the Bengals have only 2 wins this year. Cincinnati is a huge disappointment overall, but I think they’ll squeeze out a win at home.

Baltimore at Carolina – on paper this is a mismatch, and I believe the Ravens will win, but it may not be as one-sided of a game as the team’s records would indicate.

Detroit at Dallas – the Cowboys’ win over the Giants tells me one thing – that the Cowboy players, and interim coach Jason Garrett, should all be ashamed of the effort they gave Wade Phillips all year. Neither of these teams will have their starting QB, and even though I’d love to see the Lions win, I have to go with Dallas at home.

Cleveland at Jacksonville – both of these teams have overachieved all year. I’ll go with the Jaguars at home as they try to stay relevant in a tough division race.

Arizona at Kansas City – the Chiefs were brought back down to earth in Denver last week, but they’ll rebound at home and stay alive in what is now a tight AFC West race.

Green Bay at Minnesota – at his weekly press conferences, Brett Favre sounds like he really doesn’t want to be playing any longer, but I would expect his enthusiasm level to be high for this game – another chance at sticking it to his old team. Green Bay has been decimated by injuries, and although they are a better team I believe the Vikings will win this game.

Houston at New York Jets – the Texans look more and more like they will be also-rans again this season. The Jets have pulled out a couple of close wins on the road the last 2 weeks, and I believe they will ride that momentum to a big win here.

Oakland at Pittsburgh – the Raiders upset the Steelers last season and are a better team this year, but Pittsburgh will be sky high after losing at home to the Patriots last Sunday night. The Steeler defense will rebound and shut down Oakland and win this game pretty handily.

Washington at Tennessee – any thoughts that the Redskins were still viable contenders got squashed by Mike Vick and the Eagles on Monday night. Tennessee has quarterback issues but they can run the ball and should win this game at home, with Randy Moss having a bigger impact in the passing game this week also.

Seattle at New Orleans – the Saints are over their early season Super Bowl hangover now, and will put this game away early against a Seattle team that doesn’t travel well.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco – despite a disappointing start, I believe the 49ers still have a shot at the playoffs in the weak NFC West division. More importantly, the Niners still believe it too. Tampa will give them a fight but I think San Francisco is beginning to put it together and will win this game.

Atlanta at St. Louis – the Rams are a little too young for this situation. Atlanta needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the surging Saints in their division race and can’t afford to get tripped up here. I’ll pick the Falcons on the road in a close game.

Indianapolis at New England – Peyton Manning has been getting it done this year with smoke, mirrors and practice squad players, but the Pats will win here. Foxborough has always been Manning’s personal House of Horrors, even when he’s had his full complement of players on offense.

New York Giants at Philadelphia – the cream has risen to the top in the NFC East, and it’s turned out to be these 2 teams. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, especially the matchup of Vick vs. the Giants’ defense. I’ll go with the Eagles at home, riding the momentum of their big Monday night win over Washington.

Denver at San Diego – Phillip Rivers has had an amazing season passing the ball for the Chargers, and it looks like they are starting their annual late-season push to the playoffs. They’ll continue that push with a win at home over the unpredictable Broncos.

It’s always an adventure with the Buffalo Bills, but they did hang on to win their first game of the season on Sunday, beating the Detroit Lions, 14-12, in a game that was much more entertaining than the low final score would indicate. The win was a long time coming and has to be a huge relief in the locker room, even if it was against a team playing a backup quarterback that has now lost an NFL record 25 consecutive games on the road. Coach Chan Gailey, after the game, made it a point to mention how enthusiastic the crowd was, how they helped the team hold on and get the win, and how they continue to support the team despite the mounting losses this year. I believe that the fans have mostly stuck with the Bills this year because they have played entertaining football even in their losses, and the fans will support the team as long as they see that they are getting an honest effort.

On Sunday, the Bills’ offense played a pretty good game but had trouble finishing drives. The running game had its’ best outing of the year, as Fred Jackson rushed for 135 yards, had 170 total yards, and scored both Buffalo touchdowns. Ryan Fitzpatrick managed the game well, for the most part extending drives long enough to keep his team in favorable field position even if they had trouble putting points on the board. He connected with Lee Evans and Stevie Johnson on a couple deep passes, but also, as has been the case in almost every game this year, missed open receivers on plays where he took shots downfield.

The defense played an inspired game, as they again showed improvement in both stopping the run and getting off the field on third down. Kyle Williams continued to play at a Pro Bowl level on the defensive line, and Chris Kelsay, who seems to be playing more and more in his old familiar three-point stance along the line rather than at outside linebacker, played his best game of the year. Dwan Edwards led the team in tackles and had an interception also. On the negative side, whatever defense the coaches called that had LB Paul Posluszny attempting to cover Calvin Johnson on the Lions’ touchdown at the end of the game was a mistake. At that point, with the clock running down and Detroit out of timeouts, priority one for the defense should have been to keep everything in front of them and make sure to tackle whoever wound up with the ball short of the goal line. Instead, they left one of the NFL’s best receivers all alone, with Posluszny frantically chasing him, to haul in what could have been a tying touchdown. To their credit, the defense stopped the two-point conversion try to preserve the win.

Hopefully the Bills can build on the win, continue to improve each week and win a few more games this season. They have at least shown the ability to compete each week with whatever opponent they face.

The first of the NFL Network Thursday night games for this season is played tonight, so the weekly predictions will be posted today instead of Friday this week. Last week’s 13 games produced an 8-5 right/wrong record, pushing the season mark to 75 correct and 54 wrong. Here are the week 10 picks:

Baltimore at Atlanta – this battle of the birds is the Thursday night game. It’s an important contest for both teams, as they try to hold onto leads in their respective divisions. The Ravens are a more experienced team, and are a little better defensively, so I’ll pick them to win this one on the road.

Detroit at Buffalo – Lions QB Matthew Stafford may be sidelined this week, but even if he is I’m going to resist the temptation to pick Buffalo to win its’ first game here. The Bills are consistently doing whatever it takes to lose each week, something the Lions were doing just a couple of years ago. Detroit was impressive in dropping a close game to the Jets last week and will win this game.

Minnesota at Chicago –   the Vikings barely kept their season alive at home last week, while the Bears won coming off a bye to propel themselves back into the division race. Chicago wins at home, and puts some distance in the division between themselves and the Vikes, setting up a two team race with Green Bay for NFC North supremacy in the 2nd half of the season.

New York Jets at Cleveland – the Browns have become giant-killers this year, but I like the Jets in this spot. They can match Cleveland’s intensity at home on defense, will be able to run the ball, and Mark Sanchez will outduel rookie Colt McCoy to pull out a Jet victory.

 Cincinnati at Indianapolis – bad spot for the Bengals, catching Peyton Manning and the Colts in Indy and coming off a loss to the Eagles. Cinci has been a bunch of paper tigers all year, and they’ll get schooled by Manning & Co. in this one.

Houston at Jacksonville – on paper the Texans should be heavily favored in this matchup, but Jaguars’ coach Jack Del Rio always has his team motivated and playing well in these important division games. Still, I’ll go with Houston in a very tight game.

Tennessee at Miami – two hard-hitting clubs with great running games  battling in a game that will help the winner’s playoff chances immensely. They may not get much of a contribution from newcomer Randy Moss, but I still like the Titans to pull out a hard-fought victory.

Carolina at Tampa Bay – the Bucs may not be able to run with the NFC’s big dogs yet but they’ll dominate this matchup. Tampa Bay at home, putting another nail in John Fox’s coffin as Panther coach.

Kansas City at Denver – the Chiefs were edged by Oakland in last week’s key division game, but will rebound and beat a weak Bronco team on the road this week.

Seattle at Arizona – a very hard game to pick – being played by 2 of the NFL’s Jeckyl and Hyde teams. I’ll go with the Cardinals at home based on  sound football strategy – the coin came up heads.

Dallas at New York Giants – the Cowboys should get somewhat of a bounce from the coaching change of Wade Phillips to Jason Garrett, but they’ll eventually be pounded into submission by a better Giants’ team that has totally recovered from the Cowboy-like  total tailspin they had at the end of last season.

St. Louis at San Francisco – the Niners’ season has gone pretty much just like the Cowboys’, but they won’t pack it in like the Cowboys have, not on Mike Singletary’s watch. San Francisco wins at home.

New England at Pittsburgh – this is a great matchup between two of the NFL’s best organizations. Normally the Patriots are the type of team that would rebound strongly from a thrashing like the one they took from the Browns last week, but the Steelers are too good of an opponent. Instead, they’ll use the films of what the Browns did to pin a 2nd straight loss on New England.

Philadelphia at Washington – Donovan McNabb beat his old team in their first matchup earlier this year, but the shine is fading from his star, while in Philadelphia Michael Vick’s stock is rising. The Eagles are clearly the better team at this point and will win on the road under the Monday night spotlight.

With an 0-8 won-loss record at the halfway point of this NFL season, the only grade that can be given to the Buffalo Bills, obviously, is a failing one. Here is an in-depth look at the current state of the team, and the progress, or lack of, in each area:

Front Office

April of 2010 was the first draft that can be directly attributed to Buddy Nix’s regime as general manager of the team. At this point, it’s tough to give the front office much credit for a good draft, since the biggest contributor among rookies on the roster has probably come from undrafted free agent receiver David Nelson. First round pick C.J. Spiller should eventually develop into an impact player, but he’s still learning the ropes. One pick, seventh rounder Kyle Calloway, was cut in preseason, and 3rd rounder Alex Carrington made the roster but has been de-activated most of the season. Nix deserves some credit for taking a flyer on Shawne Merriman. Whether he has any impact or not, the move shows at least the front office is looking for help wherever they can find it. A couple of other late additions to the roster, LB Akin Ayodele and OL Mansfield Wrotto, have seen significant playing time and made contributions also. The Bills’ roster, because of the team’s record and lack of talent, is going to be a work in progress  through the remainder of the season.

Coaching

Failing grades for everybody here. Coach Chan Gailey set the team back by starting Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch at the beginning of the season, even though both had lost their starting jobs last season. Defensive coordinator George Edwards installed a 3-4 defense, and it failed miserably as the team has little quality at the linebacker position. The defense left behind by the Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell regime was a “Tampa 2”, bend-but-don’t break style, but at least it was a competent scheme that the players were comfortable in. I was never a big fan of that “Tampa” scheme, because it wasn’t very aggressive. I can remember fans in the stands calling the Bills’ “cover 2” scheme the “cover zero” since it seemed as though none of the players ever had the direct responsibility of covering anyone. There were a lot of players standing around in their “zones” while opposing receivers ran to the open areas and made easy receptions for big gains. That being the case, I actually applaud the move to install a 3-4, more aggressive scheme. I just feel they overestimated the talent on the roster and their ability to play the scheme effectively, and maybe could’ve made a slower transition. The experiment of moving defensive linemen Chris Kelsay, Aaron Maybin and Chris Ellis to outside LB spots hasn’t worked. Ellis was cut, Maybin hasn’t been able to get on the field, and Kelsay has looked lost. On offense, the scheme Gailey is using is a vast improvement over past years. He has shown aggressiveness in his play calling, even taking shots down the field in critical situations late in games, where in past years Jauron would’ve been passive, looking to get into field goal range and get ties rather than going for broke. Those plays haven’t connected, as QB Ryan Fitzgerald has missed open receivers a number of times, but the “go-for-it” mentality will win over the fans.

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick deserves a passing grade since taking over for Trent Edwards, who flunked out of school. He has taken control of the offense and rejuvenated the team’s passing game, spreading the ball around to all the receivers and producing touchdowns in a lot of games, rather than field goals. He has also ranked near the top of the league in QB ratings since getting the chance to play full time. However, his report card must include some notes from the teacher, such as “needs to work on improving accuracy” and “must eliminate costly interceptions”. His play has been a boost to the team, but the fact is that he has yet to lead a late-game comeback, and instead has thrown interceptions in a couple situations when he had chances to bring the Bills back.

Running Back 

The highest grade at this position goes to fullback Corey McIntyre. He is a solid blocker, makes positive plays in the few opportunities he gets to run the ball or catch dump-off passes, and is one of the team’s toughest special teams hitters. He apparently is also a positive voice in the locker room. Fred Jackson has been steady, but his play slipped in the last couple games. The Bears stuffed the Bills’ running game and Jackson also had a fumble. C.J. Spiller hasn’t been the spectacular player everyone expected, but he’s still solid and makes some positive contributions in most games. He has also had at least one costly fumble. The production of both backs hasn’t been eye-opening, but part of the reason for that is that the offense has been featuring the passing game more.

Receivers

A+ grades to all 4 receivers who the Bills have used – Stevie Johnson, who is developing into a star, Lee Evans, who still gets the bulk of the double coverage from opponents yet has been productive, Roscoe Parrish, who has been reborn in Gailey’s system, but now is lost for the year with a hand injury, and David Nelson, who has made the most of limited opportunities in 4-receiver sets. Donald Jones has been a good special teamer, and now must pick up the slack for Parrish and contribute on offense. Tight ends David Martin and Jonathan Stupar haven’t been spectacular but at least get passing grades. Shawn Nelson has not lived up to his potential at all, and obviously his 4 game drug suspension didn’t help his cause.

Offensive Line 

There hasn’t been a game yet this year in which the Bills haven’t been dominated on both sides of the ball in the trenches. The offensive line has looked much better since Fitzpatrick became the starter at QB, but the run blocking isn’t very good. I believe the players on the line are guys that can be building blocks for future years, except for the right tackle spot. Center Geoff Hangartner is steady, and high draft picks Eric Wood and Andy Levitre, the guards, will only get better with experience. Left tackle Demetrius Bell doesn’t get a lot of notice on game days, which in an offensive lineman’s case usually means they’re doing a decent job. Cornell Green, the starter at right tackle before getting hurt, looks more like a Langston Walker-type stopgap player than a long term answer. Cordaro Howard hasn’t played very well in his opportunites at the position. Gailey recently said he liked the play of Mansfield Wrotto in the spot when he got his chance, but his grade would have to be “incomplete”. The class assignment for this group for the second half of the season should be to show marked  improvement in the run-blocking department.

Defensive Line

This group was overwhelmed in early games when playing the 3-4, but is starting to improve as the season goes on. Tackle Kyle Williams is the star pupil here. Spencer Johnson is a solid player even though he doesn’t start, definitely an asset to the defense rather than a liability. Rookie Torell Troup has worked his way into the lineup, but hasn’t had a large impact yet. We’ll hold off on grading him until season’s end. Free agent signee Dwan Edwards has played solidly but hasn’t been the impact player the team hoped he would be. Marcus Stroud hasn’t been terrible, but I don’t see him lasting on the roster beyond this season as the team goes with younger players.  John McCargo wound up in the old coaching regime’s doghouse, and now has officially earned his American Kennel Club certification, getting de-activated for almost every game.

Linebacker

This is by far the weakest position on the team, and the main reason, in my opinion, why the defense can’t stop the run or create any turnovers. Paul Posluszny has played better in recent weeks and is probably the only real NFL-caliber starting LB on the roster. All the free agents signed off the street – Reggie Torbor, Andra Davis, Akin Ayodele – and holdovers Chris Kelsay and Keith Ellison, are decent backups at best.  Shawne Merriman, if he has anything at all left in the tank, should have no problem getting into  a starting role quickly. Aaron Maybin is slowly but surely working his way onto the “major bust” list. Youngsters Arthur Moats and Antonio
Coleman have showed some promise when given a chance. The coaches need to use the rest of this season to find out what they have in those young players, but either way linebacker has to be a top priority in next season’s college draft and free agency period.

Defensive Back 

This group hasn’t produced like they did last year. Safety Jairus Byrd has a major case of the “sophomore jinx”, as he has made little impact this season. In preseason and quarterly report cards, I have been highly critical of Donte Whitner as a draft bust, but my opinion of him is starting to change. He is starting to look more comfortable in the new defense and having more impact in games. Leodis McKelvin, on the other hand, is looking like a bust. He can’t seem to cover anybody. Terrence McGee is becoming a china doll type of player. He is always nicked up and can’t be counted on to be on the field. All in all, I believe the troubles in the Bills’ secondary are mainly because the defensive backs have been required to make too many tackles due to the front seven players being pushed all over the field. It has resulted in nagging injuries to the DBs and players like Byrd having to do what they don’t do best, make tackles in the open field, rather than concentrate on using their ball-hawking skills to get turnovers. If the Bills build a solid, physical linebacking corps, their secondary, even with the current players, will automatically become one of the NFL’s best and deepest units.

Special Teams 

They weren’t very good early on, but C.J. Spiller has a kickoff return TD and Parrish’s punt returns have been decent. The kick coverage has gradually improved also. Some bomb squad stars are emerging, like McIntyre, Moats and Donald Jones. You can tell Bruce DeHaven’s influence is starting to take hold, and the special teamers are taking pride in their work. Rian Lindell missed the first PAT of his career last week, but overall he has been solid. Punter Brian Moorman has not been his usual reliable self. He’s been OK, but in past years he was always a difference maker, maybe even the team MVP, and hasn’t had that impact so far this season.

I don’t think there can be any doubt in any Buffalo Bills’ fan’s mind that this team is trying its’ hardest each week to win a game, but after dropping another 3-point heartbreaker, 22-19, to the Chicago Bears, and falling to 0-8, the prospect of an 0-16 season is a harsh reality. The problem now is that the Bills will be facing a similar situation each week that an unbeaten team faces. Just as every opponent of an unbeaten team raises its’ level of play because they want the glory of beating that team, every Bills’ opponent from here on out will be highly motivated not to wind up in the embarrassing spot of  being the winless team’s first victim.  

As for Sunday’s game, the annual “home” game in Toronto’s Rogers Centre, the script was similar to the last 2 games, both overtime losses. On the positive side, the offense continued to be somewhat productive. They outgained the Bears, had more first downs, and converted 10 of 16 on third down against the Bears’ defense, which came into the game ranked #1 in the NFL in stopping opponents on 3rd down. The team isn’t lighting up the scoreboard like they did in Baltimore a couple of weeks ago, but they ARE scoring touchdowns, not settling for field goals like they often did in the Dick Jauron era, when they get opportunities. The defense again showed gradual improvement. On the line, Kyle Williams is playing at a Pro Bowl level, and Spencer Johnson made some plays also. Even the linebackers played better, as Chris Kelsay probably had his best game of the year, and youngsters Arthur Moats and Antonio Coleman made their presence felt.

On the negative side, the offense turned the ball over too many times once again, and those turnovers were the main reason the team lost this time. The running game was stuffed by the Bears’ defense, and usually reliable Fred Jackson contributed to the turnovers with a fumble. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing a good job of directing the attack for the most part, but if this team is going to win somewhere down the line, he HAS to eliminate the interceptions. The defense played better but at the same time, the Bears’ offensive line has been pathetic all season. They gave up 9 sacks in the first half, and got QB Jay Cutler knocked out with a concussion in a game against the Giants earlier in the season, and have struggled all year. Yet the Bills didn’t put much pressure on Cutler, and he had one of his better games of the year. The Bills blitzed a lot to try to get to him, but didn’t get there often. Bryan Scott, a player who I have always liked because he seems to make plays when he gets his chances to play, dropped 2 sure interceptions. Those missed opportunities usually are the difference between winning and losing with a team that has little margin for error like the Bills. On the other hand, it’s a positive that he was actually in position to make plays on the ball, something Bills’ defenders haven’t done much of this season.

Next up for Buffalo are the much-improved Detroit Lions, who almost upset the Jets on Sunday. Only 2 seasons ago they were in the position the Bills are now. They did the unthinkable and finished 0-16, and certainly will be in no mood to be the Bills’ first victim.

My week eight predictions produced a mediocre record of 7 correct choices and 6 wrong. The season record is now 67-49. The way the season has gone so far I’m happy to be above the .500 mark. Here are the picks for week 9:

Chicago vs. Buffalo (at Toronto) – the Bills have burned me every time I’ve picked them to win this year, but I’m going to pick them again this week. The Bears will be well rested coming off a bye, but I’m not buying into Jay Cutler as an elite NFL quarterback, and the Bills’ gradual improvement will pay off in their first win here.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – this game will go a long way toward revealing which of these 2 teams is the real challenger to New Orleans in the NFC South. I believe at this point that team is the Falcons, and they will win this game at home.

Miami at Baltimore – this should be a defensive struggle, and the Dolphins have been road warriors this season, but the Ravens will protect their house and hand Miami their first road loss of the season. The Ravens need this game to keep pace with the Steelers in their division race.

New Orleans at Carolina – the Bills are 0-7, but the Panthers may be the worst team in the NFL. New Orleans hasn’t been the team that swept to a Super Bowl win last year, but their big win over Pittsburgh last week should jump start them. The Saints win this game handily.

New England at Cleveland – the Browns are improving, but there’s no way rookie Colt McCoy beats the Patriots. Tom Brady engineers a methodical win over Eric Mangini’s team.

New York Jets at Detroit – the Lions are reaching a point in the season where they are a dangerous opponent for anybody to face, especially at home. The Jets’ offense stumbled at home against Green Bay last week, and will struggle again against the Lions’ tough, young defense, which has been pressuring opposing quarterbacks and causing turnovers all season. I’ll pick Detroit to pull the upset.

San Diego at Houston – this game shapes up as a shootout so it’ll probably end in a 3-0 score. San Diego needs to get it going now that Kansas City and Oakland are emerging as contenders. Both quarterbacks, Phillip Rivers of the Chargers and Houston’s Matt Schaub, will light up the scoreboard in this one, and the Texans will win in the end.

Arizona at Minnesota – this is a get-well game at home for the Vikings. Derek Anderson returns as the Cardinals’ starting QB, and the Vikes will harrass him all day long. Despite all the soap opera distractions, this will be a big win for Minnesota, keeping them alive in the NFC North race.

New York Giants at Seattle – since they are playing at home, the Seahawks will keep the game close, but New York is a mentally and physically tougher team and their defense and running game will wear the Hawks down and give the Giants a big road win.

Kansas City at Oakland – this is a fierce rivalry dating back to the early AFL days, but both teams have been sad sacks in recent years. Suddenly, both are relevant again, locked in a tight race for the AFC West. I’ll pick the Raiders at home to win, tightening up the division race a little more.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia – the Colts are decimated with injuries on offense, but just keep plugging in new faces, and Peyton Manning just keeps rolling along. He’ll outduel Mike Vick in this one and give Indy an important road win.

Dallas at Green Bay – the Cowboys are crumbling fast, and even though Green Bay is hurting with numerous injuries, they have enough to knock off the totally disappointing Cowboys. Wade Phillips isn’t a strong enough personality to restore order in the Dallas locker room, and as the losses mount the finger-pointing and bickering will worsen, eventually costing Phillips his job. The one good thing about this matchup is that it stirs up memories of the famous “Ice Bowl” championship game in 1967, and that always makes me smile.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – the Bengals’ complete sweep of their AFC North rivals last season, leading to a surprising division crown, was a total one-year fluke. They’ll compete hard in this game and keep it close, but the Steelers are a better team and will be looking to rebound from their loss to the Saints last week, and will win this game.

It has been interesting to listen to some of the national sports commentators critique NFL teams at this point of the season. Two of the league’s most disappointing teams, the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, are getting crucified by the national media, for good reason. Both have losing records in a year when they were expected to contend for the Super Bowl, and the national media “grim reapers” have started counting down the days until their coaches, Wade Phillips and Brad Childress, are fired. Mike Shanahan is getting grief for his handling of the benching of Donovan McNabb in Washington, and the annual “fire Norv Turner” watch is on again in San Diego. Two other teams that were expected to contend, Cincinnati and San Francisco, have been disappointments and their coaches are under fire also.

Meanwhile, the 0-7 Buffalo Bills are getting positive reviews from a lot of the national media. I must have heard at least 3 different experts compare the Cowboys and Bills as examples of coaches getting the least out of the talent on their roster, and the most. The Bills have yet to win a game, yet their effort in each game is being praised by people who follow the game, including a lot of ex-players who have been in the situation of trying to turn around a losing program. The fact that they are competing hard on a weekly basis with their season already in the tank is a sign of good things to come, once the players are completely comfortable with the systems they are playing. I have expressed disappointment in the fact that the Bills, who’ve been mediocre for a decade but at least have hovered around the .500 mark, have fallen so far down the ladder this year – all the way to the bottom of the league. But I also think that they are methodically building a team that the fans will be proud of at some point. The roster is slowly being purged of players who either don’t want to do what it takes to play in the NFL, or don’t have the skills and/or mental toughness to play for a winner. For years the Bills’ roster has been loaded with players who basically just show up, put up some meaningless numbers and seem happy with what they’ve contributed despite all the mediocrity. It’s at least encouraging that a lot of football experts are giving the team kudos for their weekly focus and effort, rather than just dismissing them as a laughingstock, which is usually the case with a team that is the only winless team left in the league.

For the second week in a row, the Buffalo Bills lost an overtime heartbreaker, this time to an up-and-coming Kansas City Chiefs team on the last play of OT, 13-10. Despite their 0-7 record, the Bills are competing hard every week and showing some improvement in most areas. The players are obviously buying into coach Chan Gailey’s approach, and their problem isn’t a lack of motivation or effort, it’s a lack of talent on the roster. For the most part, the Bills were outplayed in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Defensively, their play resembled what they did last year – they got gouged in the running game, got beat by throws to the tight end in the most critical moments, but except for one drive managed to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone. The offense was overmatched by KC’s defense most of the day – the running game didn’t produce much, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was under pressure on most of his dropbacks. The offense put together a great game-tying drive to send the game into overtime, but couldn’t finish the job in the overtime period, despite having chances. There was a negative play in the overtime that actually encouraged me as far as the team’s approach. The play was set up to create a mismatch in the passing game, and it worked, as Fitzpatrick took a shot downfield to C.J. Spiller but overthrew him. The play failed, but you have to love the attempt to go for the jugular by Gailey. What was discouraging was Fitzpatrick’s failure to get the team closer to a winning field goal attempt when he had chances in the OT, but again, he was under intense pressure.

On defense, the front seven was overwhelmed most of the day, and the Chiefs used the same plan as every other team that faces the Bills. They ran the ball at will and hit timely passes to the tight end at crucial moments.  If the continual defensive problems were scheme-oriented, the coaching staff would have to have figured out how to fix them by now. The defense is showing gradual improvement in some areas, but I still feel their lack of NFL caliber players at linebacker is killing them. Paul Posluszny is probably the only LB on the roster who could even make another team in the league. Also, I don’t see how keeping Chris Kelsay on the field, at this point, is more beneficial than putting some of the younger players with potential,like Arthur Moats or Antonio Coleman or even megabust Aaron Maybin, out there to see what they can do.

Despite all their faults, I still have more respect for a team like the Bills, that’s working its’ collective tail off each week to get that elusive first win, than I do for a team of underachieving superstars like the Dallas Cowboys. Coach Gailey at least has established a strong foundation of collective accountability among his players that will pay benefits when the team finally turns it around.

In my predictions for week seven in the NFL, I had 9 correct and 5 wrong again, leaving the overall count at 60 right and 43 wrong for the season. Here are my week eight choices:

Buffalo at Kansas City – the Chiefs are looking more and more like the surprise team of 2010 that will win its’ division and get into the playoffs, while the Bills are still finding their way, trudging through an 0-6 season so far. Kansas City is usually tough to beat at home also. I think they will, by season’s end, finish first in the AFC West but the Bills will pull an upset and win their first game of the season this week.

Denver vs. San Francisco (in London) – this is technically a home game for the Niners, and after the pathetic showing by Denver last week at home, I have to believe there are issues in the Broncos’ locker room that have found their way to the field. San Francisco wins a sloppy game, and the Tim Tebow watch begins in Denver.

Jacksonville at Dallas – the underachieving Cowboys now have to regroup behind Jon Kitna at QB, and I believe they will. On paper, they are miles ahead of the Jaguars talentwise, and that talent will translate to the field for once this week and the ‘Boys will pull out a win.

Miami at Cincinnati – the Dolphins have reeled off a couple of impressive road wins this season, and I believe they are a tougher team, mentally and physically, than the Bengals.  Miami’s defense shuts down the Cincinnati attack enough to get another road win.

Washington at Detroit – Mike Shanahan has done a great job of returning the Redskins to respectability this year, but I still don’t completely believe in them yet.  The young Lions are starting to feel it and they’ll win with another impressive home field  performance  this week, behind their young returning QB, Matthew Stafford and a young, improving defense.

Carolina at St. Louis – the young Rams, predictably, have been inconsistent this season. This should be one of their “up” weeks, and they’ll beat the Panthers at home.

Green Bay at New York Jets – the AFC East, other than Buffalo, is the best division in the NFL this year, and the brash Jets may be the division’s best team. The Pack is banged up and put a lot of effort into beating Brett Favre and the Vikings on Sunday night, so I see the Jets winning this game rather handily.

Tennessee at San Diego – it’s more than just the usual slow start with the Chargers this season – this team just doesn’t appear to have the talent they’ve had in the past. I don’t believe either of these teams is a serious contender, but the Titans play tougher defense and can run the ball with Chris Johnson, so they’ll pull out a win on the road here.

Minnesota at New England – the Patriots win this game big no matter who is at QB for the Vikings, since Brett Favre seems lost and disinterested anyway. New England is re-tooling on the fly this season, and continuing to win, and this game will be no exception. Don’t be surprised if Deion Branch has a big role in the game plan, just to send Randy Moss a message.

Tampa Bay at Arizona – these teams appear to be going in opposite directions. Josh Freeman has been impressive guiding the young Bucs, while the Cardinals play musical quarterbacks. Tampa is the better of these 2 teams at this point, but I see them getting tripped up on the road in this game in a mild surprise.

Seattle at Oakland – the Seahawks are probably going to win the NFC West, but they’re due for a down week in their inconsistent season, and the Raiders are flying high after demolishing Denver. I like Oakland to win at home. The Raiders have to feel they are legitimate contenders to win their division, and unlike some perceived “better” teams like Dallas and San Diego, they are competitive in every game.

Pittsburgh at New Orleans – the Steelers may be the best team in the NFL right now. New Orleans has struggled, but with Reggie Bush due back from injury and the Saints needing this game to keep pace with Atlanta, I believe New Orleans will win at home. The quality of their opponent this week, and the prime time atmosphere of a Sunday night game, will awaken the Saints from their Super Bowl hangover and keep them playing at the top of their game.

Houston at Indianapolis – the Colts, like a lot of other teams in 2010, have struggled to maintain their past success rate this season. The loss of Dallas Clark for the season will slow the Colts’ offense, at least temporarily until Peyton Manning figures out how to adjust to it. I’m picking Houston to win a game that will be one of the franchise’s biggest victories in their short history.