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After picking 9 winners out of the 13 NFL games played last weekend, my season prediction record stands at 79 correct and 37 wrong. With the season reaching the halfway point, teams are starting to establish their 2011 identities, which should make it easier to pick winners, but that never seems to be the case. Here are my week 9 choices:

New York Jets at Buffalo – this would be a huge statement win for the Bills, but recent history shows that the Jets show up at the Ralph, play well and usually win easily, then the Bills return the favor and upset the Jets in New York. I’ll pick the Jets to win a close, low-scoring defensive game.

Seattle at Dallas – a game between 2 teams that are practically impossible to predict. I have to believe that the Cowboys will be focused and motivated after getting thrashed by the Eagles last week, and will win at  home .

Cleveland at Houston – the Browns cannot match the offensive firepower that the Texans have. This game looks like a mismatch on paper but the Browns’ defense should keep it reasonably close. However, the Texans will win.

Atlanta at Indianapolis – the Falcons are beginning to peak, while the Colts, Peyton Manning or not, are the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year. Atlanta wins easily.

Miami at Kansas City – the Chiefs  continue their amazing rise from the scrap heap by beating the  game but undermanned Dolphins at home .

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – the Saints got ambushed by the Rams last week, and should be ready to avenge a loss to the Bucs earlier this year. The loser of this game may be finished  as far as playoff possibilities, and I think the Saints, although they have a flawed defense, will win behind a rousing home crowd.

San Francisco at Washington – Jim Harbaugh’s Niners are becoming a juggernaut, and will beat the Redskins, who have major injury troubles and not much working on offense.

Denver at Oakland – the Raiders come off a bye week that enabled them to get new QB Carson Palmer familiar with the offense. After getting blasted by the Chiefs the Raider defense will be primed to shut down Tim Tebow and will win this game, although it should be a defensive struggle.

Cincinnati at Tennessee – both of these teams have been pleasant surprises this year. The Titans are especially tough at home, but the Bengals are one of the few teams with a defense that stops people and tackles well, so I’ll pick them to win here.

St. Louis at Arizona – the Rams will be flying high after finally winning this week, while the Cards have been a major disappointment. St. Louis wins their second in a row, this time against a division foe.

New York Giants at New England – it’s been a long time since the Giants shocked the Pats in the Super Bowl to ruin their perfect season, but in my mind, the Giants are a better team now than they were then, while the Patriots are not. The Giants win a huge road game to stay firmly on top of the NFC East.

Green Bay at San Diego – the Chargers really blew a sure victory on Monday night against the Chiefs, and this is the type of game they normally get pumped up for and actually play up to their potential. I’ll pick the Chargers to pull the upset here as the Pack, with a big lead in their division, gets caught taking a west coast vacation .

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – the Ravens crushed the Steelers on opening day and did a lot of trash talking afterwards. Pittsburgh has since righted their ship while the Ravens have been inconsistent. Pittsburgh evens the score with a tough, physical win at home.

Chicago at Philadelphia – the Eagles are finally on a roll now, and it will continue with a rousing Monday night win over the Bears, with Jay Cutler having a tough night.

According to coach Chan Gailey, the Bills’ braintrust spent the bye week breaking down the defense in the team’s first 6 games, and were determined to do whatever was necessary to improve on that side of the ball. Apparently, judging by the Bills’ 23-0 shutout of the undermanned Washington Redskins on Sunday, the tinkering went well. After racking up only 4 sacks and very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks in those previous 6 games, the Bills sacked John Beck 9 times on Sunday, and made his day pretty miserable overall. Granted, the ‘Skins were missing at least 5 starters from their offensive unit, and they looked like a team full of players who weren’t used to playing with each other. But Buffalo was forced to play without starters Shawne Merriman and Kyle Williams. With Williams out and Torrell Troup not fully healthy, the Bills moved rookie Marcell Dareus inside to nose tackle and he responded with a monster game, recording 2 1/2 of the team’s sacks and spending a lot of time in the backfield disrupting Washington plays. Arthur Moats got a bulk of the playing time in Merriman’s spot and was active all day also, getting credit for a half sack but getting lots of pressure off the edge on Beck. The Bills’ starting safeties continued their stellar play, as Jairus Byrd got a sack and a pick, and George Wilson had an interception to go along with a team-high 8 tackles.

The offensive effort was workmanlike, with Ryan Fitzpatrick guiding a steady attack, spreading the ball around and hitting tight end Scott Chandler for a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson, who is now having his name mentioned in league MVP conversations, helped his cause by rushing for 120 yards and catching passes for 74 more. For really the first time all season, the Bills were held to field goal attempts on some of their drives instead of touchdowns, but with the defense playing so well the urgency to pile up points wasn’t really there and the team never seemed in jeopardy of losing control of the game. The win sets up a huge AFC East matchup next week against the New York Jets, who’ll be rested coming out of their bye week. It’ll be a big test for the Bills – but they now have 2 things going for them. One, they’ve passed all the big tests they’ve faced so far this year, and two, they’ll be back at their real home at Ralph Wilson Stadium, feeding off the energy of their real home fans.

Last weekend’s games produced my first sub-.500 record of the year as I picked 6 winners and 7 losers. Still, the overall season record stands at a respectable 70 correct and 33 wrong. Here are the picks for week eight:

Washington at Buffalo – this game is being played in Toronto as a “home” game for the Bills. They have actually never won at Toronto in a regular season game since this series began, but that will change this week. The Bills will continue to push the ‘Skins on their downward slide.

Arizona at Baltimore – it’s hard to believe the Ravens lost to Jacksonville on Monday night, and I can’t see them losing at home to another lowly opponent. Baltimore’s defense shuts down the Cards and the Ravens win.

Minnesota at Carolina – Christian Ponder had to battle against Aaron Rodgers in his starting debut last week, and this week he faces Cam Newton, who will lead the up-and-coming Panthers to another win at home.

Jacksonville at Houston – the Jaguars’ win on Monday night was a fluke. Houston wins this game at home to stay atop the AFC South.

Miami at New York Giants – people are beginning to question whether the Dolphins are tanking their season on purpose in order to draft Andrew Luck. Well, they DID just sign J.P. Losman as their backup QB. The Giants win this game easily at home.

New Orleans at St. Louis – every week the poor Rams face another tough opponent. Sam Bradford is going to be a successful NFL quarterback and the Rams will eventually turn it around. It’s just not going to be this year. The Saints win big on the road.

Indianapolis at Tennessee – at some point the Colts have to start playing with some pride. I expect them to keep this game close but also expect the Titans to win.

Detroit at Denver – after a 5-0 start the Lions have lost 2 straight and now try to stop the Tim Tebow “magic”. It is impressive how Tebow pulls out wins without playing like a conventional NFL quarterback, but I just think the Lions have too much talent to blow this one. Detroit fights through injury problems and finds a way to win.

New England at Pittsburgh – neither of these teams is as good as their hype would indicate, but both are still title contenders in a year with no clear-cut AFC favorite. Tom Brady guides the Pats to another of his patented surgeon-like wins on the road.

Cincinnati at Seattle – the Bengals are playing good football but also benefitting from a relatively soft schedule. I expect them to win a close game over the inconsistent Hawks.

Cleveland at San Francisco – I really think Colt McCoy is a better QB than Alex Smith, but Smith plays on a better team in the 49ers. Jim Harbaugh’s club wins to move a step closer to an NFC West title, with the post-game handshake getting more coverage on the highlight shows than the game.

Dallas at Philadelphia – the Cowboys are a good team but their QB, Tony Romo, is not a finisher. The Eagles are over their early season troubles and win this game to position themselves for a run at the playoffs despite the 1-4 start.

San Diego at Kansas City – the Chiefs were left for dead early in the year after suffering embarrassing losses and crushing injuries, but have righted the ship and gotten back into the AFC West race. Still, I see the Chargers winning here.

Week 6 turned out to be another pretty successful one for me in picking winners on the NFL games, as I wound up with 11 correct and 2 wrong, making the season record 64-26. This week is the bye week for the Buffalo Bills, among other teams, so again it’s a partial slate of games. Here are my week 7 predictions:

 Washington at Carolina – I’ve stated almost every week that I’m not a big believer in the Redskins, and their fall back to earth will continue here as Cam Newton engineers a big Panther win at home.

Seattle at Cleveland – the Seahawks are one of the hardest teams in the NFL to figure out, looking awful one week then pulling off a big upset the next. Although the Browns have not been very impressive this year, I’ll pick them to beat a team they should beat at home.

Atlanta at Detroit – this should be one of the weekend’s most competitive games, and the Lions, still feeling the sting of their loss to the 49ers last week, will pull out a win to further cement their status as a team that has arrived as a contender.

Denver at Miami – in a strange coincidence, Tim Tebow takes over as the Broncos’ starting QB at Miami in a game in which his Florida national championship team is being honored by the Dolphins. He should have a big cheering section in the stadium and I believe he’ll direct Denver to a win over the winless Fish.

San Diego at New York Jets – the Jets have struggled to find their “A” game this year, especially on offense, and those struggles will continue as the Bolts win in a close matchup.

Chicago at Tampa Bay – this game is being played in London, so there’s no home field advantage for the Bucs, but they’ll outslug the Bears and win this game.

Houston at Tennessee – with the Colts and Jaguars both having down years, this is now a marquee AFC South matchup, and I’ll give the edge to the Titans at home, mostly due to the Texans battling with injuries.

Pittsburgh at Arizona – Cardinal coach Ken Whisenhunt is a former Steeler assistant, and the up-and-down Cards will be up for this game. The Steelers aren’t the same team when they play on the road, and I’ll take Arizona to upset them here.

Kansas City at Oakland – a classic rivalry dating back to the AFL days, and even though the Chiefs are struggling they will make it close. However, the Raiders will win, with their defense dominating the game to help out new QB Carson Palmer as he tries to learn the offense.

St. Louis at Dallas – another tough test for the young Rams, and Dallas will win to keep pace in the NFC East race.

Green Bay at Minnesota – the Vikings turn their offense over to rookie QB Christian Ponder, and his teammates should energize around him. The Packers are just too good, however, and will remain undefeated with a road division win here.

Indianapolis at New Orleans – without Peyton Manning, the Colts are punchless, and New Orleans will have little trouble winning this game.

Baltimore at Jacksonville – Jaguars’ rookie QB Blaine Gabbert facing the tough Raven defense under the Monday night spotlight is not a good situation for him. Baltimore slugs out a win on the road.

The Buffalo Bills dropped a 27-24 heartbreaker to the New York Giants on Sunday in the “new Meadowlands”, AKA Metlife Stadium. They now head into their bye week with a 4-2 record, dropping a game behind New England in the AFC East race after the Pats defeated Dallas later in the day. The loss to the Giants wasn’t a big surprise. New York is a solid team and figured to be focused after falling asleep and being embarrassed by Seattle at home last week. By winning, they also have unlocked the secret to beating Buffalo – although the Bills are extremely competitive this year, if you protect the ball and don’t turn it over, you can beat them. The Bills are a work in progress, especially on defense, and if they are going to stay in the race for the playoffs for the long haul, they are going to have to improve on that side of the ball. They need to find ways to pressure the opposing quarterback, whether it’s rookie Marcell Dareus continuing to progress, Alex Carrington getting more playing time or Arthur Moats getting on the field more even after Chris Kelsay returns from injury. One big bright spot on defense was the return to action of cornerback Terrence McGee, who had a great game defending both the pass and the run. McGee’s return moved the target off the back of Leodis McKelvin and onto Drayton Florence, who struggled all day. Although the defense gave up large chunks of yardage, another 100+ yard rushing day by an opposing back and more long drives, they did make a big stop near the end of the game, holding the Giants to a field goal and giving the offense an opportunity to tie or win the game. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been terrific all year, wasn’t up to the task this time. In fact, his underthrown interception prior to New York’s winning field goal drive probably cost Buffalo the game. The pick left me with mixed feelings, however, since his throw to Stevie Johnson on the play represented an aggressive attempt to “go for it” rather than take the conservative route and play for a field goal. That’s one of the things I like about the Chan Gailey regime – the aggressiveness on offense. In his postgame press conference, Fitzpatrick in fact took the blame for both of his interceptions. They were similar in that both were throws to Johnson, both picked by Corey Webster and both underthrown. Fitzpatrick admitted that in both cases, he had the perfect call, the perfect matchup and that Johnson ran a great route. He just didn’t execute the throws.

There were a lot of positives in the game for the Bills, like McGee’s play, which included a perfect form tackle on a Giant receiver that should be made into an instruction video and sent to all NFL teams to show some of the league’s mediocre defenders how it’s supposed to be done. There was another fantastic game by the team’s best player, Fred Jackson, and a great catch-and-run by local hero Namaan Roosevelt for a 60 yard TD. There were good contributions from C.J. Spiller in the passing game. The Bills get their bye week at a good time. They’ll be able to get players like Kyle Williams, Demetrius Bell, hopefully Chris Hairston if his ankle injury turns out to be not too serious, Shawne Merriman and Kelsay healthy. The best thing about the Bills, coaches and players alike, is that they realize they need to keep improving if they’re going to stay in the hunt.

Week five was the first week that included byes in the schedule, so there was only a “partial” slate of games played. I picked 9 winners out of 13, raising the record for the season to 53 right and 24 wrong. Here are my week six selections:

Buffalo at New York Giants – the Bills’ win over the Eagles was a big deal, since Philly needed the game badly. They are doing one thing this season the Giants have struggled to do the last couple of years – playing consistently. The “bad” Giants showed up last week and were upset by Seattle, and I think the Bills will find a way to scratch out a win here.

Carolina at Atlanta – Cam Newton has transformed the Panthers into one of the NFL’s most exciting teams, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into wins. The Falcons will win this division matchup at home.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati – the Bengal defense, statistically the best in the league, will have no trouble shutting down the now punchless Colts. Cincinnati wins at home.

San Francisco at Detroit – who would have ever guessed that going into week 6 of the season, these 2 teams would have only one loss between them? This should be a great game, and I see the Lions staying unbeaten with a rousing win in front of their home fans.

St. Louis at Green Bay – the Rams are an improved team but have been playing a brutally tough schedule. They’ll get beaten soundly by the Pack in Lambeau Field.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – the Steelers are not among the league’s elite teams this year, in my opinion, but will win this game handily at home. Jaguars’ rookie QB Blaine Gabbert will be overwhelmed by this situation.

Philadelphia at Washington – this is the week the Eagles break out of their funk. They will bring the Redskins back down to earth with a huge division win, propelling them right back into the NFC East race despite their poor start.

Houston at Baltimore – tough loss for Houston at home last week, and they’ll drop another in this contest against the Ravens in what should be a low-scoring game.

Cleveland at Oakland – the Raiders’ emotional last-second win over the Texans last week a day after legendary owner Al Davis passed away was one of the season’s best highlights so far. I see them rolling over the Browns at home in what should be another emotional scene.

Dallas at New England – the Cowboys are a good match for New England, but the Pats will pull out another typical workmanlike win at home.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – the young Bucs have to be reeling after getting pasted in San Francisco last week, but on a hunch I think they’ll rebound with a strong effort at home and edge out the Saints for a big division win.

Minnesota at Chicago – in what should be a tough NFC North slugfest, the Bears’ defense will be the difference and they’ll win a close, low-scoring game.

Miami at New York Jets – getting the Dolphins at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Jets to turn around what has been a disappointing start to the 2011 season so far. They’ll keep the Fish winless with a one-sided victory under the Monday Night spotlight.

So far in this young NFL season, long-suffering Buffalo Bills’ fans have been treated to some of the most exciting games since the club’s 4 Super Bowl runs in the 1990s, especially at home in Ralph Wilson Stadium. Sunday’s game against the self-proclaimed “Dream Team”, the Philadelphia Eagles, was no exception. The Bills used the same formula in this game as they have all year so far, running a balanced offense centered around Fred Jackson. Jackson ran for over 100 yards again and also contributed greatly in the passing game, turning screen passes into long gains. Ryan Fitzpatrick guided a solid passing game, throwing for less than 200 yards but making those yards count by distributing the ball among all his receivers. Unlike some of their other wins this year, the Bills this time rarely took shots downfield against the Eagles’ strong cornerbacks and didn’t utilize tight end Scott Chandler much, but kept drives alive with timely Fitzpatrick passes to Jackson, David Nelson, Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones and Namaan Roosevelt, who stepped in and contributed after Jones was hurt. Brad Smith also chipped in with a 5 yard TD run out of the wildcat formation.

Defensively, the Bills also followed the same pattern as their 3 other wins this year, giving up chunks of yardage and points, but also coming up with turnovers and making stops when they needed to. Nick Barnett had 2 interceptions and returned one for a touchdown. A weekly “Pick Six” by the Bills’ defense has become a habit for these guys also. Overall, the Bills came up with 5 turnovers, 4 of them interceptions. Incidentally, the team led the NFL in picks coming into this game, so they’ll surely hold onto that distinction. George Wilson, who played a monster game along with fellow safety Jairus Byrd, had an interception, as did nickel cornerback Reggie Corner. Alex Carrington tipped Michael Vick’s pass to set up Corner’s pick, Arthur Moats pressured Vick on Wilson’s interception, redirecting the pass, and rookie LB Kelvin Sheppard’s hit on Vick set up Barnett’s touchdown pickoff. Once again, it was a total team victory, as the Bills did what they needed to do to overcome Vick’s dynamic “high risk, high reward” style of play. At 4-1, the Bills are now firmly established as a team to reckon with in the AFC East race this year. The circumstances of this game, winning against a totally desperate team that needed the game badly, makes the win possibly more impressive than beating the Patriots to end a 15 game losing streak against them. Next week, they get a similar test – this time on the road, against another NFC East team, the New York Giants,  who’ll be angry after losing at home to lowly Seattle.

Week four was the first week of the NFL’s young season to feature some upsets, and my week’s record of 9 correct and 7 wrong, after 3 good weeks of predictions, reflected that. My record after four weeks now stands at 44 right and 20 wrong. Here are my week 5 picks:

Philadelphia at Buffalo – Philly’s “Dream Team” is reeling with a 1-3 record. Although Buffalo’s offense is built perfectly to attack the major weaknesses in the Eagle defense, the Eagles need this game badly to stay afloat in their division and unfortunately for Bills’ fans, they will be the team that “circles the wagons” this week, riding a big game by Michael Vick against the Bills’ still-progressing defense  to a hard fought win.

New Orleans at Carolina – Cam Newton has been tearing up defenses so far in his rookie season and the Saints’ defense hasn’t been very good, so this could be a spot for an upset, but I think Drew Brees will rise to the occasion and do whatever it takes to outscore Newton and the Panthers, giving New Orleans a big division win.

Oakland at Houston – the Raiders’ early-season schedule is a real gauntlet, and they face another big test on the road at Houston. The Texans are beginning to look like they mean business this year. Their win over the Steelers last week was impressive and they’ll keep up the positive momentum with a win here.

Kansas City at Indianapolis – this is a matchup of 2 teams having extremely disappointing seasons, mostly due to major injuries. Both teams put together good efforts last week, but coming off a short week after playing on Monday night, the Colts should struggle. The Chiefs get a big road win to keep their slim division race hopes alive.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville – this figures to be a low scoring game, since both teams have strong defenses and both start rookie quarterbacks. I’ll go with the Bengals to win on the road.

Arizona at Minnesota – it’s just a matter of time before the Vikings go to rookie Christian Ponder at QB over Donovan McNabb in what is now a lost season. The Cardinals need this game if they are to contend in the NFC West. I’ll take the Cards on the road.

Seattle at New York Giants – kudos to Tom Coughlin for getting his team focused early in the year, as the Giants have at least been consistent in their efforts, and now are in good shape in the NFC East standings. They are too good to blow this game, and will rout the Seahawks at home.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh – I have serious doubts about whether Pittsburgh’s defense is as strong as it usually is, and the Titans have been surprisingly good in 2011. However, playing at home, I feel the Steelers will figure out a way to squeeze out a win they need badly.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco – I am now officially on the 49ers bandwagon. New coach Jim Harbaugh has recognized the opportunity his club has in a very weak division and so far, with a surprising 3-1 record, they are seizing that opportunity. San Fran wins a close game at home.

San Diego at Denver – the Broncos were embarrassed by Green Bay last week and will be motivated at home in a division game, but the Chargers are the better team and will pull out the win.

New York Jets at New England – last season, the Pats crushed the Jets 45-3 late in the year, then Rex Ryan’s crew turned the tables in the playoffs and upset the Pats. New York’s defense has so far not lived up to expectations this season, and Tom Brady will light them up and lead New England to a big win.

Green Bay at Atlanta – rematch of last year’s playoff game, won by the Packers in a rout. Atlanta will be ready this time, but the Pack is still a better team and will win a close contest.

Chicago at Detroit – Lions’ first Monday night appearance in years, and it’s a big test on the road against the defending division champs. The home field advantage should be huge for Detroit, in fact, too big for Bear QB Jay Cutler to handle. The Lions win their fifth straight to stay even with Green Bay in the NFC North.

When Marv Levy’s Bills were dominating the AFC in the early 1990s, amazingly, his teams would take criticism from the local media if they won games, but the wins weren’t convincing enough. He used to routinely say “It’s hard to win every week in the NFL, it takes everything you’ve got, it’s physically and emotionally draining.”  The 2011 version of the Bills learned that lesson on Sunday in Cincinnati, letting a 17-3 halftime lead evaporate before losing on a game-ending field goal by Mike Nugent as time expired. There was a lot of talk about the Bills possibly taking this game for granted, especially after rolling over the Bengals last year, but I don’t think the loss had anything to do with overconfidence. In fact, looking closely at both teams, the Bengals’ win isn’t really that surprising. The Bills had gone 3-0 on the strength of their offense being able to put points on the board almost at will, but without a doubt the Bengals’ defense was going to be the strongest the Bills faced and it was going to be difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. to keep up the pace of the first 3 weeks. It was going to take improvement by the defense to win this game, and that improvement should have been expected considering the Bengals were starting a rookie QB, Andy Dalton, had a running back facing suspension, Cedric Benson, and a rookie receiver as their main weapon, A.J. Green. The Bills’ defense did supply points in the first half on a heads-up interception by Bryan Scott, who grabbed the ball off the shoetops of a Bengal receiver and ran it in for the score. However, when they needed to make stops in the second half to slow down Cinci’s momentum, they couldn’t get the job done. They couldn’t stop Benson, who racked up 100 yards in a game he shouldn’t have even been playing in (he appealed his suspension and got a 1-week reprieve), and they allowed the rookie Dalton to look like a seasoned veteran as he led impressive drives when it counted most. For the second time this season, Leodis McKelvin was skewered by a rookie receiver as Green had a 100+ yard day, mostly making big plays over McKelvin. It’s a shame that Aaron Williams was hurt last week, since he most likely would have progressed to the point where he pushed McKelvin to the bench. Unfortunately his progress will be stymied. Maybe rookie 7th round pick Justin Rogers should be given a shot to start in McKelvin’s spot – he certainly can’t do any worse. Another player the Bills have to  make a decision on is LB Shawne Merriman, who has been invisible. He was credited with a sack against the Bengals when he chased Dalton out of bounds for a loss while he was scrambling, but otherwise has been a non-factor. Both Danny Batten and Arthur Moats have made plays in limited chances, and it may be time to give both of these guys more playing time. Not only has Merriman done nothing to help the pass rush, which is supposed to be his strength, but Benson got most of his yards rushing to Merriman’s and Dwan Edwards’ side of the line. One thing is for sure – the Bills will be facing their second loss this week against Michael Vick and an angry Eagle team if they stand pat on defense.

Heading into week four of the NFL season, I should probably be planning a trip to Las Vegas. After correctly picking 13 of 16 winners last week, my season record now stands at 35 correct, 13 wrong. Here are my week four picks:

Buffalo at Cincinnati – the Bills gave their fans a sneak peek at how they were going to play this season in last year’s game against the Bengals, when they wiped out a big deficit and won. This year’s Bengals are a much different team – no Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens or Chad Ochocinco, but they do have a pretty strong defense. Still, I think Buffalo pulls out a close win.

Carolina at Chicago – big test for Panther rookie QB Cam Newton on the road against the Bears, and I don’t think he’ll pass it. The Bears get a much-needed win at home.

Tennessee at Cleveland – both of these teams appear to be clubs that will be inconsistent all year. Although I think the Titans get better quarterback play, I’ll go with the Browns at home.

Detroit at Dallas – the Cowboys have played some gutsy football this year and pulled out close wins, but Detroit is believing in itself and has a solid roster. The Lions stay unbeaten with a win at Jerry’s Palace.

Pittsburgh at Houston – the Steelers have looked a little vulnerable this year, and Houston will knock them off at home in a shootout.

New Orleans at Jacksonville – the Saints score at will but need to shore up their defense. However, Jacksonville doesn’t have the offensive punch to take advantage of the Saints’ defensive shortcomings, and New Orleans wins here.

Minnesota at Kansas City – both of these teams are winless and reeling, but the Chiefs have been plagued by injuries and may be losing faith in their coach. The Vikings get their first win.

San Francisco at Philadelphia – the 49ers don’t have the horses to compete with Philly, and the Eagles need the win badly, and will get it in a lop-sided contest.

Washington at St. Louis – the Redskins are playing hard and getting respect but I still feel like they are a house of cards waiting to crumble. Coach Mike Shanahan is doing it with smoke and mirrors, and the Rams crack the mirror this week and get their first win at home.

New York Giants at Arizona – the Giants were impressive in beating the Eagles last week, avenging a crushing loss from 2010. But they’re a Jeckyl and Hyde club and this is just the type of game they’ll slip up in. The Cardinals get a win at home.

Atlanta at Seattle – another 2010 playoff team off to a slow start, the Falcons need to string together some wins to stay close in the NFC South. They’ll get one here against a club going nowhere this year.

Denver at Green Bay – no contest in this game, especially at Lambeau Field. Green Bay wins in a rout.

New England at Oakland – this should be an interesting contest. Oakland is the real deal, and proved it with a big win over the Jets last week. However, there’s no way Tom Brady and the Pats lose again. They’ll outscore the Raiders and win a close one.

Miami at San Diego – in my division predictions for the year I had the Dolphins finishing in the AFC East basement and they are well on their way. The Chargers send them to the 4th loss of the year here.

New York Jets at Baltimore –  the Jets, one of the AFC’s strongest teams, start off with a brutal schedule. I think they’ll regroup and beat Rex Ryan’s old team. Then they get to play New England next week.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay – it’s amazing how mediocre the Colts are without Peyton Manning. Tampa Bay plays well in the Monday Night spotlight and gets the win at home.