rayonsports.com

**THIS IS A RE-POST OF A STORY ADDED TO THIS BLOG ON OCTOBER 28, 2010, AFTER RYAN FITZPATRICK TOOK OVER AS STARTING QUARTERBACK FOR THE BUFFALO BILLS AND BEGAN TO SHOW SIGNS THAT HE COULD BE THE “ANSWER” FOR THE TEAM’S FUTURE. WITH THE BILLS’ 2-0 START THIS SEASON AND FITZ LEADING THE WAY, I THOUGHT IT WAS A GOOD TIME TO REVISIT THIS ARTICLE.**

After putting on quite a performance in Baltimore last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick, in the eyes of at least some fans, has emerged as possibly being “the guy” to lead the Buffalo Bills out of the losing wilderness they’ve been in for a decade. The Bills’ front office, and coach Chan Gailey, have to be pleased with the way the entire offense has improved since Fitzpatrick took the reins from Trent Edwards. Whether or not the team gets the top pick in the draft, and whether they decide to use that pick to draft a “franchise” quarterback or not, will depend on how the rest of this season plays out. In fact, the remainder of the season will pretty much make the decision for them. If they wind up with the top pick, it will mean that Fitz’s play leveled out as the season went on, and he looks like the “career backup” that is the description that he’s had up to this point. If he continues to improve and the offense thrives and the team starts to win, it’ll mean that the draft pick the team winds up with won’t be a top 5 pick anyway, so the front office can concentrate on finding some impact defensive players. There’s also the possibility that the offense thrives, Fitzpatrick puts a stranglehold on the starting job, and the defense continues to be awful, resulting in a lot of 38-35 losses, and the Bills still wind up with the NFL’s worst record. In that case, the scouts will need to find the next Bruce Smith instead of the next Jim Kelly, or they could trade the pick to accumulate extra picks to shore up the roster. Fitzpatrick, a Harvard graduate who certainly is intelligent enough to run an NFL offense, has had ups and downs since regaining the starting job he actually won last year, but one thing is certain. His play has raised the level of play of the rest of his offensive teammates. Since he has been put in the lineup, the play of the offensive line has been better – or has he made them look better by making better decisions, getting rid of the ball quicker and avoiding sacks? The receiving corps, which looked weak at the start of the season, is suddenly making all kinds of plays. Lee Evans had one of his most productive games in years at Baltimore, Roscoe Parrish’s speed and talents are being utilized again and Stevie Johnson, who looked lost at the start of the year, is an emerging star. David Nelson has made big plays in limited playing time, and even the tight ends have been used in the offense – something the Bills never seem to do. The running game, expected to be the featured part of the offense, has been effective when used, and should be even better when opponents have to respect the pass. Even with an 0-6 record, the rest of the season will be interesting in Buffalo as the Ryan Fitzpatrick story plays out.

Fitzpatrick’s situation got me to thinking about players throughout the NFL’s history who’ve risen from obscurity to stardom at the QB position over the years. For every top draft pick superstar like Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman and Phil Simms, there’s a rags to riches story like Jim Plunkett, Rich Gannon, John Unitas or Mark Rypien, players who came off the scrap heap, or were considered “career backups”, who made the most of an opportunity to lead a team to a championship. There are 2 examples from the 1960s that mirror Fitzpatrick’s NFL career so far.

In the mid-1950s the NFL draft was 20+ rounds long, and Bart Starr was an afterthought 17th round draft pick out of Alabama in 1956 by Green Bay. When Vince Lombardi took over the Packers in 1959, he played Babe Parilli and Lamar McHan at QB with mixed results, and threw Starr in occasionally but was unimpressed with his play. Starr wasn’t a physically gifted athlete and was on the shy side. His best asset was intelligence, and when Lombardi tired of the mental mistakes being made by the other QBs, he gave Starr his opportunity, then committed to him as the permanent starter. Five championships, and 6 title appearances in 8 years, were Lombardi’s reward for trusting in Starr.

Dr. Frank Ryan, a PHD in mathematics, kicked around the NFL for 4 years as the Rams’ backup QB before being traded to Cleveland in 1962. Ryan, like Starr known for his smarts rather than his athletic ability and considered a reserve QB at best, was acquired by the Browns to back up starter Jim Ninowski. But when Ninowski broke his collarbone Ryan was forced into the lineup. He slowly gained the confidence of his teammates and the coaching staff and wound up keeping the starting job for 6 years before being forced to retire because of injuries. He threw for 25 touchdowns with 13 interceptions in 1963, and in ’64, led the NFL in TD passes and guided the Browns to a surprise 27-0 win over Don Shula’s heavily-favored Baltimore Colts in the league title game.

Bart Starr (left) and Frank Ryan.

The Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders, two teams that have been mired in mediocrity for almost a decade, played what was probably the most entertaining game of the weekend in the NFL, with the Bills wiping out a 21-3 halftime deficit to win 38-35. The lead changed hands numerous times in the fourth quarter and it became obvious this was going to be one of those games that was won by the team that had the ball last. That didn’t exactly happen, but then again the Raiders almost pulled it out with a Hail Mary throw on the game’s last play. The game turned out to be a surprising shootout between 2 quarterbacks trying to establish themselves as legitimate starting signal-callers in the NFL, Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Bills and Oakland’s Jason Campbell. They both played terrific games and surely left the defensive coordinators of both teams scratching their heads after the game. Campbell was missing a couple of his regular receivers, Louis Murphy and Jacoby Ford, but managed to utilize his top weapon, running back Darren McFadden, in both the running and passing games, and connected on big throws to his unknown replacement wideouts, especially rookie Denarius Moore, who turned Leodis McKelvin inside out all day long.

Fitzpatrick had a second consecutive great game, but unlike Tom Brady and Cam Newton, who have passed the 400 yard mark twice, he has only thrown for a bit over 200 yards in racking up an impressive 7 touchdown passes in 2 weeks. The reason for Fitz’s success so far has been that the Bills have managed to have great balance between their running and passing games. Fred Jackson had another terrific game, rushing for over 100 yards again and scoring 2 TDs. C.J. Spiller also contributed some big plays in what may have been his best game as a Bill. For the second week in a row, Fitzpatrick spread the ball around among his receivers, throwing TD passes to 3 different players – Stevie Johnson, tight end Scott Chandler, and the game-winner to a guy who is fast becoming one of the NFL’s most reliable third down slot receivers, David Nelson. Nelson made the roster last season as an undrafted free agent out of Florida, where he caught throws from college legend Tim Tebow, and so far has been more successful than Tebow in establishing himself as a solid NFL player.

Defensively the Bills had a rough day, and will have to clean up a lot of things before next Sunday to avoid being carved up by Tom Brady & Co. when the New England Patriots visit Ralph Wilson Stadium. The fact is though, the Raiders have one of the biggest and most physical offensive lines in the NFL  and are going to make some noise in their division this year. The Bills and Pats will enter next week’s game as 2 of 3 undefeated teams in the AFC East, and it’s without a doubt the biggest game the Buffalo franchise will be playing in years. By the way, the other undefeated AFC East team, the New York Jets, travel to Oakland next week to play the Raiders in their home opener. That should also be a very interesting contest.

Fresh off a pretty good week of picking winners in the toughest set of games of the season, week one, I’m primed and ready for the NFL’s second week of action. My opening week record was 10 winners and 6 wrong. Here are my week 2 picks:

Oakland at Buffalo – both of these teams started off the season with big wins, and this should be a good game. I’m going with the Bills to win at home, although the game will be extremely close and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders pull off an upset.

Green Bay at Carolina – kudos to Cam Newton for a terrific debut last week, but it’ll be much tougher this Sunday against the visiting Packers, the reigning Super Bowl champs. Green Bay will win the game handily.

Kansas City at Detroit – the Lions are riding high after opening with a big win in Tampa, while the Chiefs looked awful at home against the Bills. Detroit continues to build momentum by winning this game, although the Chiefs will keep it close by regrouping and showing a much better effort this week.

Cleveland at Indianapolis –  a match of 2 teams that were embarrassed on opening day, the Browns by losing at home to lowly Cincinnati and the Colts by getting pounded by division rival Houston. I believe Indy will play much better this week, especially Kerry Collins, who came out of retirement to try and somehow replace Peyton Manning, and win at home.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – I really like the young Bucs but they will start out the 2011 season with 2 losses as the Vikings win at home behind a big effort from Adrian Peterson.

Chicago at New Orleans – the Bears have a terrific defense, but aren’t the same team on the road as they are at Soldier Field. The Saints will be motivated after getting beaten by Green Bay, and have too much firepower for Chicago to handle, and will win this game.

Jacksonville at New York Jets – this game will be no contest, as the Jags are no match for Rex Ryan’s Jets. New York wins big at home.

Seattle at Pittsburgh – another game that should be one-sided, as the Steelers will be foaming at the mouth after getting plastered by the Ravens. Combine that with Seattle’s penchant for laying eggs when they have to travel east for road games, and the result will be a big Steeler victory.

Baltimore at Tennessee – the Ravens will rack up their second win of the year against the Titans, who are in for a long, losing season.

Arizona at Washington – I still am not buying the Redskins as a viable contender in the NFC, and I’ll pick the Cardinals to pick up a big road win here.

Dallas at San Francisco – the Cowboys should have beaten the Jets on opening night, but Tony Romo pretty much handed Rex Ryan’s crew the game. That won’t happen this week. Dallas wins big on the road.

Cincinnati at Denver – a matchup of AFC pretenders who both lost last week. The Broncos will win at home helped by a big defensive effort.

Houston at Miami – the Texans may be realizing it’s now or never for them to overtake the Colts as AFC South champs. They were impressive at home on opening day, and will continue to build on that win with a close, hard-fought win over the Fish.

San Diego at New England – it’s unbelievable that the Chargers had both the top ranked offense and defense in the league last year, yet missed the playoffs. This is the type of game they need to win if they’re ever going to be considered serious title contenders, which on paper they are. The Pats don’t care about paper, however, and will win this one.

Philadelphia at Atlanta – Michael Vick’s long-awaited homecoming, and he’ll surely get pretty rough treatment. I like the Falcons to win for 2 reasons, because they need to win badly after getting clocked in Chicago in week one, and because they don’t want to be upstaged by Vick.

St. Louis at New York Giants – the young Rams still need time to develop, and this stage of Monday Night Football is a little too big for them. The veteran Giants will squeeze out a much-needed win.

The Buffalo Bills, AKA “The Little Engine That Could”, stormed into Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday like a runaway locomotive, beating the Kansas City Chiefs soundly in all phases of the game in winning, 41-7. The Bills were a focused group, and the win was a total team victory. Ryan Fitzpatrick, trying to establish himself not only as his team’s unquestioned leader but as a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL, threw for 208 yards and 4 touchdowns, to 3 different receivers, in an efficient performance. Fred Jackson ran hard all day and eclipsed the 100 yard mark with 112 yards rushing. The offense was balanced all day. Fitzpatrick utilized his tight end, Scott Chandler well, hitting him for 2 scores. He also threw a TD pass to each of his starting receivers, Donald Jones and acrobatic Stevie Johnson, who is a rising star. He also connected with slot receiver David Nelson for some important first down throws during the game to keep drives alive. C.J. Spiller pitched in to the running game with a late touchdown also. The Chiefs looked flat from start to finish, and looked unmotivated and out of gas by game’s end. The Bills’ special teams pitched in with a fumble recovery on the opening kickoff, setting a tone that they maintained throughout the game, good kick coverage all day and a long punt return from Roscoe Parrish that helped set up a score. Defensively, the Bills have said they are determined to improve their run defense, and although Jamaal Charles averaged over 6 yards a carry, the defense contained him for the most part, and the offense eventually made him a non-factor by building the big lead. The defense also had a fumble recovery and an interception, by Drayton Florence. Just like with the offense, there were contributions on defense from multiple players also. Rookie Marcell Dareus played well, Spencer Johnson had a sack, and Bryan Scott was an unsung hero after being forced into more nickel and dime formations due to the hamstring injury suffered by Terrence McGee. Even on a negative play, I saw positives from this Bills’ team, a sign that they plan on being aggressive. On the Chiefs only score of the day, rookie corner Aaron Williams, also pressed into extra duty by McGee’s injury, was beaten on a pass from Matt Cassell to Charles. Williams went for the interception and just missed, and with a 20-0 lead at the time, it wasn’t a bad decision to try and make the aggressive play. Chan Gailey and his coaching staff deserve credit for having the team completely prepared to play. The Bills look like a determined bunch, determined to wipe away years of losing and gain some respect around the league. They took a giant step toward accomplishing that on Sunday with their resounding victory over an AFC playoff team from a year ago.

 It’s been over a decade of futility for the Buffalo Bills, as instability in the front office and coaching  led to poor drafting, bad personnel decisions and just bad coaching on both sides of the ball. Last season, another regime change took place, as Buddy Nix was hired as general manager and Chan Gailey as head coach. Neither was a particularly popular choice, and how well the team does in 2011 will say a lot about the job this new management team is doing so far. It didn’t go well to start the season in 2010, as the Bills started 0-8, changed quarterbacks and traded their starting running back. To his credit, Gailey righted the ship, and the Bills played .500 ball, going 4-4 for the second half of the season. The hope is that the team will build on that improvement and finally start winning, but every new season is a different adventure in the NFL and nothing is guaranteed. Here is my season preview of the 2011 Buffalo Bills:

Front Office / Coaching

Buddy Nix has certainly been an active GM since taking over. Although fans have howled that the team has not pursued high-profile free agents, Nix has made moves that have remade the roster through both free agency and drafting. I’m not a fan of the trade of Lee Evans for a draft pick. I don’t see how that makes the Bills a better team in any way, shape or form. The move was supposedly made to clear playing time for all the great young receivers on the roster, but in my mind, when the time comes somewhere down the line, in a tough road game in November when the team needs a play to pull out a win in the fourth quarter, they will miss Evans. If this stable of young receivers suddenly all vanish at crunch time, then Nix should be held accountable.

The results of his first draft last year are mixed. There certainly weren’t any instant contributors among the draft picks. Many questioned the choice of C.J. Spiller early in the first round when the club already had 2 potential starting running backs, and Spiller still hasn’t shown anything other than occassional flashes. The new rule moving the kickoff to the 35 yard line, resulting in more touchbacks, will diminish his contributions even more. There were some players picked who showed potential, like Alex Carrington, Torrel Troup and certainly Arthur Moats, but they need to make big strides this year for the 2010 draft to be considered successful. Danny Batten, Marcus Easley and Ed Wang all return from injuries and all looked good in preseason games this year, so the draft could still turn out to be productive.  

As for coaching, Chan Gailey may not be the sexiest coach in the NFL but he appears to at least know what he is doing, unlike some of his predecessors of the last decade. His staff has now been together for a full season, and the addition of Dave Wannstedt as assistant head coach is a big plus. The defense is the unit that has to show the most improvement for the team to progress in 2011, and Wannstedt’s wealth of experience has to help.

Offense

This unit has one thing going into 2011 it didn’t have at the start of last season – stability. Ryan Fitzpatrick is firmly established as the starting quarterback, and Fred Jackson is undoubtedly the starting, every down running back. Additionally, Stevie Johnson has emerged as a real deep threat and Fitz’s favorite target, hopefully offsetting the loss of Evans. There isn’t necessarily stability along the offensive line, but with Eric Wood moving to his natural center position and Andy Levitre and Demetrius Bell a year more experienced, there’s a chance some stability can develop there. Adding versatile Brad Smith to the mix is a big plus. His biggest contribution will hopefully be adding some creativity which will help the team convert some third downs and keep drives alive, whether as a “wildcat” QB, slot receiver or even a rushing threat.

Defense

This unit was the main reason the team finished 4-12 last year. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t cover anybody, couldn’t pressure opposing QBs and couldn’t get off the field on third down. Since the unit was that bad, I don’t see the departures of players like Donte Whitner, Keith Ellison, Marcus Stroud and Paul Posluszny as great losses. This team needs to find some active defensive playmakers to replace guys who basically were bodies taking up space. The drafting of Marcell Dareus, signings of Shawne Merriman (if he stays healthy) and Nick Barnett, and the promotion of George Wilson to Whitner’s spot are all moves in that direction.

Special Teams

The Bills are solid in the kicking game with Ryan Lindell and punter Brian Moorman, and long snapper Garrison Sanborn was error-free for the most part. The new kickoff rule will diminish Spiller’s effectiveness, and actually Brad Smith may handle the kickoff return duties also. The punt return game should be good also with Roscoe Parrish returning from injury.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the Bills’ roster going into the 2011 season:

Quarterback

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

This is Ryan Fitzpatrick’s offense going into the season, and the jury is still out on him as far as how effective a starting NFL signal-caller he can become. He looked pretty good after winning the job last year and put up numbers not seen for this franchise since Jim Kelly was here, but there is still certainly plenty of room for improvement. He needs to cut down on costly turnovers, and the best thing to help him do that would be an improved offensive line. Tyler Thigpen, the new backup, didn’t look very good in preseason but is still an improvement over Brian Brohm from last year. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a chance Brad Smith is given to actually play under center as the #3 QB.

Running Back

RB C.J. Spiller

Fred Jackson is without a doubt the workhorse running back on this team, but for the offense to really be successful, they have to find ways to get C.J. Spiller in space to make plays also. The NFL season is a long grind and both backs have to be productive along the way. Jackson will be a key in how successful Fitzpatrick is as QB, just as Thurman Thomas was for Kelly. He needs to give the Bills a consistent running game to keep defenses honest, and is certainly capable of doing that. Rookie Johnny White made the roster mostly as a special teams player, but with injuries he needs to be ready to step in if needed. Fullback Corey McIntyre is an unsung leader on the team, and valuable as a lead blocker, special teamer and occasional receiver out of the backfield.

Receivers

WR Stevie Johnson

I’ve already stated that I feel the team will miss Evans’ veteran leadership at some point, but there’s also no doubting that Stevie Johnson rose to become  the Bills’  #1 wideout last year. He certainly has more chemistry with Fitzpatrick than Evans had. With Evans gone, Johnson will get much more attention from opposing defenses, so it’s important that the other wide receivers, most notably new starter Donald Jones, continue to develop. Jones showed signs last year that he can be a factor in the offense, but in my mind the most important wideout on the roster after Johnson is slot receiver David Nelson. As an undrafted free agent last year, he showed tremendous poise and ability and was a key third down receiver. Roscoe Parrish is also a dangerous weapon in the slot. Marcus Easley, drafted in 2010 but sidelined the entire year with an injury, gets his chance to make it in the NFL also. I have a hunch that Easley will eventually surpass Jones as a receiver on the club, once he gets more experience. Of the tight ends on the roster, veteran David Martin is the best known. Although not the starter, the former Packer is a good veteran presence to have on the squad. Scott Chandler, a late-season waiver pickup last year, is the starter, apparently earning the job with his blocking ability. The third tight end is newcomer Lee Smith, signed after being cut by New England. His being cut may not be an accurate measure of his talent, since the Pats are loaded at tight end.

Offensive Line

OT Demetrius Bell

The Bills will go nowhere this year if their defense doesn’t improve,  but the unit most under fire after that is clearly the offensive line. The line starts out 2011 with one advantage over last season – they have Ryan Fitzpatrick, with his quicker decision-making and better mobility – lined up behind them instead of statue Trent Edwards. The move of Eric Wood to center is a positive step, since it’s his natural position and he has so much greater strength and size than last year’s starter, Geoff Hangartner. Wood may be the only recent first round draft choice, other than Dareus, to not be a bust when all is said and done. Andy Levitre is solid at left guard and Demetrius Bell should continue to improve at the important left tackle spot. Bell may have come to training camp a little too secure in his position, but Gailey’s move of putting Levitre there at times sent a clear enough message, and Bell’s play since then seems to show he got that message. The right side of the line looks like a work in progress, with a couple of waiver wire pickups – Kraig Urbik and Eric Pears – manning the guard and tackle spots respectively. Rookie Chris Hairston should eventually be the long term answer at right tackle, but he needs to gain experience first. In the meantime, coach Gailey seems satisfied with the play of Pears. Chad Rinehart, who gave Levitre a battle for his spot in camp, and Colin Brown, a guy definitely flying under the radar, supply depth along the line. The fact that the club claimed lineman Sam Young off waivers from Dallas after initially completing the 53-man roster tells you they aren’t completely happy with the guys they have in place.

Defensive Line

DE Marcell Dareus

The Bills plan to play a “hybrid” 3-4 defensive scheme this year, which means there’ll be a lot of 4-3 mixed in. The club is carrying 6 defensive linemen, and the team looks like it will have a solid rotation there this year. Rookie Marcell Dareus is being counted on heavily to help shore up last season’s dreadful run defense, and even with zero NFL regular season experience he is a vast improvement over Marcus Stroud, who he replaces. Nose tackle Kyle Williams is a Pro Bowler, and the other end, Dwan Edwards, is a solid if unspectacular veteran player. Torrell Troup, who backs up Williams, looks like a player and big Kellen Heard looked good in preseason. Spencer Johnson, who backs up Edwards, is a solid player who makes plays in the chances he gets to play and in my opinion may be better than Edwards.

Linebackers

LB Shawne Merriman

Trying to figure out who the Bills’ starting linebackers were going to be this year was difficult, but a look at their depth chart clears things up somewhat. The starter at strong side backer is Chris Kelsay, who I’ve never been a big fan of. His backup is Alex Carrington, who was a defensive end last year but moved to this spot. I can easily see Carrington, if he develops at the pace he’s shown so far, replacing Kelsay in the lineup at some point this year. Kelsay is a poster child for the type of player I mentioned earlier that the team needs to replace – guys who basically line up and take up space. Whoever plays this spot, obviously, will be the player who is playing with his hand on the ground when the team goes 4-3. Veteran Andra Davis starts at the “middle” linebacker spot, newcomer Nick Barnett is the “weak side” starter while Shawne Merriman, the wild card in the success of  not only the defense but maybe the team this year, plays what the team calls the “jack” linebacker. Hopefully that means his responsibility will be to pursue the ball and “jack up” quarterbacks and running backs all season. There is lot of depth at linebacker on the roster, which is important considering Merriman’s track record of getting hurt. Arthur Moats, Kirk Morrison and rookies Chris White and Kelvin Sheppard are backups at inside linebacker, and seriously Moats and Morrison are both better than Davis now. Backing up the outside backers are Danny Batten and surprise rookie Robert Eddins. I feel that before the season is very old that the 4 starters at linebacker will probably change, and the changes will be for the better.

Defensive Backs

S George Wilson

Trying to evaluate the players in the Bills’ secondary last year was difficult considering they had to cover for a weak front 7 by trying to cover receivers for long periods due to little to no pressure on opposing QBs, and by making tackles in the run game downfield all day since the linebackers weren’t doing it. I feel that if the improved front seven do their jobs this year, the Bills have a chance to have an outstanding secondary. Terrence McGee is a playmaker when healthy, and at the other corner, Leodis McKelvin, while nowhere near the player he should be considering how high he was drafted, has enough athletic ability to make plays if there’s pressure on the quarterback. Drayton Florence will be on the field a lot against multiple receiver formations, and is a solid pro. Rookies Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers are the other backups, and it’s probably just a matter of time before Williams pushes McKelvin to the bench. It was a surprise to see Reggie Corner get cut since he seemed to be an able backup. Don’t be shocked if he surfaces with the New York Giants, who were devastated with injuries at cornerback in the preseason and whose defense is coordinated by former Bills’ interim coach Perry Fewell. The player who needs to return to form this year is safety Jairus Byrd, a huge playmaker in his rookie year who tailed off last season. In fact, Byrd may be the player most impacted if the front seven improves, allowing him the freedom to ball-hawk. At the other safety spot, replacing Whitner, again, not a terrible player but a massive underachiever, with George Wilson is a positive move. Wilson is a team leader and in less playing time as Whitner’s backup was a hungrier, more active difference-maker as a player. Veteran Bryan Scott is a solid, versatile backup at safety who can play multiple positions and contribute on special teams. The other backup, rookie Da’Norris Searcy, is a project with size and potential.

Overview

As I stated in a post sometime during the last season, the Bills, who had no identity for a decade, began to develop one as the year progressed. I called them “The Little Engine That Could” as they gradually improved into at least a competitive football team. That nickname fit them well as their key players and team leaders – Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson on offense, Kyle Williams, George Wilson, Arthur Moats on defense – were all players who worked their way to prominence the hard way. They were lower round draft picks, undrafted college free agents, rejects from other teams, all pulling together to try to turn around a losing program. They were all non-entities as individuals, but started to make a difference and started to win when they played together as a team. Hopefully they enter this season with the same attitude, although Jackson’s flareup over whether or not he was the starting RB in the preseason wasn’t helpful. He has to realize that it takes an entire roster over a long, grueling season to win, and the team has to be top priority over individual stats. I was encouraged by the attitude Stevie Johnson came into the season with. After his breakout 2010 season, he could’ve easily started campaigning for a new contract and threatened a holdout and just generally developed a big head, but instead announced he needed to get better and was coming in to do exactly that – improve and help the team win. There are little to no expectations for this team to do anything in 2011, especially in the division they’re in. If they can avoid major injury problems, stay on track and stay focused on the task at hand, which is to continue to build on the modest success they had in the second half of the 2010 season, they may be able to shock some people and even be a factor in the AFC East race.

For any Bills fans who need to get psyched a little more for the start of the season, click on the link below:

Buffalo Bills – Shout Song

A new NFL season is upon us beginning on Thursday night, when the last 2 Super Bowl champions, Green Bay and New Orleans, square off in historic Lambeau Field. It’s a terrific matchup to kick off the year. The league has made it’s “Kickoff Weekend” a big deal in the last few years, making it an event. It’s a great move, since the league’s popularity is at an all-time high. Evidence of this came in week two of the preseason, when 2 of the top 5 highest rated television broadcasts were NFL preseason games. That’s not only 2 of the top 5 sports broadcasts, but all shows. You know you have a gold mine when your meaningless exhibition games are drawing bigger TV audiences than other sports’ regular games. I am starting my annual weekly predictions of the league’s games this week. My record last season wasn’t bad – 152 correct, 103 wrong. I consider that pretty good since a lot of pundits who pick games on the weekly pre-game shows consistently are sub-.500 on their picks. Week one, as I stated last year, is the hardest week of games to predict, since teams have been hiding their real intentions all through the preseason so as not to give opponents a read on them for game-planning purposes. Here are my Week One choices:

New Orleans at Green Bay – the Saints are only a year removed from being champions, and will be a hungry football team this year. Drew Brees will make sure of that. The Packers, however, won the Super Bowl even though they had 19 players on injured reserve, including offensive starters Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley. Those weapons are now back. They also are at home in this game, and I just can’t get the visual of how awful the Saints’ defense was in last year’s wild card upset loss to Seattle. Green Bay wins at home in what should be a terrific game.

Buffalo at Kansas City – my record would’ve been much better last year if I had picked the Bills’ games with my head instead of my heart, especially since they started out 0-8. The Chiefs were a playoff team last year and are always tough at home in Arrowhead Stadium, but they beat the Bills by the skin of their teeth last year, and the health of QB Matt Cassel is questionable due to a rib injury, so I’m picking the Bills to open the season with a win.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – the 2 teams who figure to slug it out for the AFC North title get round one started right away. I picked the Ravens to overtake the Steelers in the division, so it figures that I’ll pick them to get a jump in the race by winning this game. Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco is 0-6 against the Steelers in his career, and his security blanket – TE Todd Heap – is now in Arizona, but the Baltimore defense will get the job done and Ray Rice will have a big day, helping Baltimore get the win.

Atlanta at Chicago – I’m not a big fan of Bears’ QB Jay Cutler, and the new kickoff rule takes away a big weapon from Chicago in Devin Hester, and even though I see Atlanta faltering from its’ playoff season of 2010, they will win this game in a hard-fought, low-scoring defensive struggle. Atlanta’s running game will be the difference.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – the Bengals’ new rookie QB, Andy Dalton, looked good in preseason action but the real bullets start to fly this weekend. Browns’  QB Colt McCoy continues his development with a good game here, mixing in timely passes with a strong running game to give the Browns a win for their home fans over their Ohio rivals.

Indianapolis at Houston – it looks as though Peyton Manning will not play, and I think the Texans would win in this spot, at home on opening day, anyway. Houston has a talented team and is capable of playing big at times – their problem is consistency over a long season. The Texans will win to give their fans some initial hope, but we all know they’ll fade later in the year.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – I picked the Jaguars to surprise everyone and win the AFC South division, then they go and cut their starting QB, David Garrard, 5 days before the season opener. That won’t play well in the Jags’ locker room, especially since the team saves $9 million with the move. I actually now feel the Jags will wind up in the division basement, and the decline will start with this game as the Titans win the game on the road for new coach Mike Munchak.

Philadelphia at St. Louis – the Rams will be an up-and-coming team this year and contend for the NFC West title, but it won’t start this weekend. The Eagles are too talented and too experienced to lose in this situation, and will win on the road in a close game. Michael Vick didn’t exactly light it up in the last few games of 2010, and will be anxious to get back on track to his early season form of last year. He’ll have a big game against a young Ram defense.

Detroit at Tampa Bay – both of these teams are on the rise and will make some noise this year, and that makes for an interesting matchup between 2 franchises that are perennial losers. The Buccaneers are just a little ahead of Detroit in their development, and the home field advantage will be the difference. Tampa wins at home behind young QB Josh Freeman.

Carolina at Arizona – both of these teams were in the playoffs not that long ago, but have fallen on hard times. The Panthers are betting their future on rookie QB Cam Newton, while the Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb to try to revive an offense that faltered after Kurt Warner retired. Kolb has just a little more experience and more importantly, has a better supporting cast around him than Newton at this point. It has to be a great feeling for a young signal-caller, taking the reins of his own team for the first time, to look around and see guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Todd Heap to lean on. Add the home field advantage to that, and the Cardinals are a clear favorite to win.

Minnesota at San Diego –  the Brett Favre era is over, the Donovan McNabb era begins, and Viking fans wonder how long it will be until the Christian Ponder era arrives. Meanwhile, in San Diego, Phillip Rivers is a constant and has star WR Vincent Jackson back. The Chargers are determined to bury their slow-start reputation and their defense is good enough to contain Adrian Peterson, and they will win their opener.

Seattle at San Francisco – this NFC West matchup features the worst quarterbacking of any of the opening day games, with Tarvaris Jackson, the Seahawks new QB, facing 49er first round disappointment Alex Smith. So the final score will probably be 48-45. It’s tough to predict anything in this division except that there will be a lot of mediocrity. I’ll pick the Seahawks to win, based on the momentum they picked up by winning a wild card playoff game last year.

New York Giants at Washington – all of this week’s NFL games will surely include pre-game remembrances of 9/11 on the 10th anniversary, but this one may be the most emotional, since both cities involved were directly attacked on that day. As far as the game, the Giants are the better team on paper but their inconsistent play ruined their 2010 season. You have to figure they’ll be focused on opening day, and I’ll pick them to win with Eli Manning outplaying Redskin QB Rex Grossman.

Dallas at New York Jets – this Sunday night marquee matchup should also have a pretty emotional 9/11 remembrance ceremony. The Cowboys have been huge underachievers in recent years but I feel they will be a strong title contender in 2011. They won’t win this game however, as the Jets will be keyed up and ready to go. The Jets, led by bombastic coach Rex Ryan, sometimes are a little full of themselves, but there’s no denying how good their defense is. They’ll make it a long night for Tony Romo and will win here.

New England at Miami – the early game of what is now another new NFL tradition – the Monday Night Opening Weekend Doubleheader. It seems no matter what the NFL does it never feels like over-saturation, since the fans can’t get enough. New England is still one of the best teams in the AFC, while the Dolphins have steadily declined over the last couple of seasons. The Patriots win easily with Tom Brady having a great game.

Oakland at Denver – the late portion of the MNF doubleheader. Oakland is an enigma – they are nowhere near the dominant franchise they were in the past and everybody seems to think Al Davis has lost it, but they are always in every game they play, have one of the NFL’s toughest defenses and win more often than they should. They were 8-8 last year and should improve in 2011. I see them going into Denver and winning against their old AFL rivals. The Broncos are relying on Kyle Orton at QB and will struggle to keep their heads above water all season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers represented the American Conference in last season’s Super Bowl, and will surely be contenders again this year, but the rest of the conference looks strong also. Here are my 2011 predictions for the division races in the AFC:

AFC East

This looks like a 2-team race between New England and the New York Jets. In the playoffs last year the Jets finally figured out how to contain Tom Brady, and that will give them an edge this year. They have the top defense in the conference and will nose out the Pats to win the AFC East. Buffalo has been mired in mediocrity for a decade, mostly due to horrendous drafting, but they will escape the basement this year and finish third, beating out Miami. The Dolphins lost pretty much their entire running game, which has been their strength in recent years, and Reggie Bush is not going to be an every down runner. Plus coach Tony Sparano is on the hot seat. The Bills defense will be improved this year, enough to at least overtake the Fish. In fact, the top rookie in the division will be Bills’ defensive lineman Marcel Dareus.

AFC North

This should boil down to the annual battle between the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens for the division title. I believe this year the Ravens will overtake Pittsburgh and win the division. The team added a couple of key weapons to their offense in RB Ricky Williams and WR Lee Evans, and already have one of the NFL’s toughest defenses. The Cleveland Browns have been slowly rebuilding under Mike Holmgren, and should finish third in the division, behind young stars Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis. The situation in Cincinnati is a mess, with Carson Palmer “retired”, Cedric Benson facing assault charges and both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens having moved on. Despite having the division’s worst team, the Bengals do have the AFC North’s top rookie – WR A.J. Green.

AFC South

This division has been owned by the Indianapolis Colts, and every year the Houston Texans are picked to overtake them, then fail to do it. The Colts are starting the year with injury questions about Peyton Manning, who had neck surgery, and this is the year they will finally surrender the division crown. However, it won’t be the Texans who overtake them. I’ll pick the Colts second, and the Texans third, with Jacksonville surprising everybody and winning the division. The Jaguars are always competitive under coach Jack Del Rio, and I see them outlasting the 2 favorites and sneaking into first place at season’s end. The Tennessee Titans are starting over under new coach Mike Munchak, and by season’s end they will have the division’s biggest impact rookie – QB Jake Locker, but will finish last.

AFC West

Although they always have the best team in this division on paper, the San Diego Chargers never seem to be able to close the deal. This year they will, and I’m picking them to win the AFC West. Phillip Rivers is one of the top QBs in the NFL and has all his weapons back to start the year. The Oakland Raiders will climb past Kansas City and finish second under new coach Hue Jackson, mostly on the strength of their defense. It’ll be interesting to see if Terrelle Pryor eventually wins the starting QB job from Jason Campbell. The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year but I see them finishing third this year and missing the playoffs. Denver has the division’s top rookie in LB Von Miller but will bring up the rear in the AFC West standings.

The 2011  NFL season, which was threatened by the offseason lockout, will get underway next Thursday evening with the Saints vs. Packers matchup, and it can’t get here soon enough for rabid pro football fans. Here is my take on how the division races in the NFC will shape up this year.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles loaded up with talent  in the shortened free agency period following the lockout to the point where their newly-signed backup quarterback to Michael Vick – Vince Young – proclaimed them a “Dream Team”. On paper they are the strongest team in the division, and are the darlings of a lot of media people to win the Super Bowl this year. I personally think they are going to be a force but have too many defensive deficencies, especially in their front seven and in stopping the run. I see the Eagles finishing second in this tough division, and possibly claiming a wild card playoff spot. The New York Giants  are another team that is good enough to contend for the division title, but they have been too much of a Jeckyl / Hyde team recently to pick as the NFC frontrunner. It’s not a popular pick, but I think “America’s Team”, the Dallas Cowboys, are poised to finally realize their potential and win the NFC East crown this year. The Washington Redskins will finish in the basement, even though they played a couple of impressive preseason games and won over some media members who think coach Mike Shanahan will lead them out of the wilderness this year. I say any team that is going to rely on either Rex Grossman or John Beck as their quarterback is not going to stay in the race very long. This division is the weakest in the NFL as far as providing impact rookies. The top rookie may be Eagles offensive lineman Danny Watkins, who is a 26-year old that inherits the job of protecting Vick’s blind side.

NFC North

This is one of the NFL’s toughest divisions. The Chicago Bears won the division last year, but the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl. This season, I see the Pack riding the momentum of their championship season to the NFC North title this year. Their closest competitors, somewhat surprisingly, will be the young and building Detroit Lions, who are poised for a break-out year. The Bears and Minnesota Vikings, in my opinion, are both quarterback-challenged. The Bears rely on Jay Cutler, and he is never going to be an elite signal-caller. Chicago will go as far as their defense carries them, and that will be third in the division. The Brett Favre experiment in Minnesota is over, and apparently they were ready to turn the offense over to rookie first round draft pick Christian Ponder. Then suddenly they made the move to acquire Donovan McNabb, which looked like a move that could catapault them to the division crown. I feel that McNabb’s best years are behind him, and that the Vikes are destined for the NFC North cellar. My pick for top NFC North rookie is a player who is currently injured – Lions’ defensive lineman Nick Fairley, who should be impressive once he’s ready to team up with last year’s rookie sensation Ndamukong Suh.

NFC South

There’s only one certainty in this division – the Carolina Panthers will finish last. Cam Newton will probably claim the starting QB job and the team still has a decent running game, but the other teams in the division are just too good. The New Orleans Saints, a year removed from a Super Bowl title, will reclaim the division title this year behind Drew Brees. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the league’s best kept secrets in their rising young QB star, Josh Freeman, and will give the Saints all they can handle. Atlanta won the division last year, but their playoff drubbing against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was an omen. They will fall to third in the NFC South this year and miss the playoffs. Top rookie in the division will be Newton, even though his team won’t win many games.

NFC West

The Seattle Seahawks won this division in 2010 with a losing record, the first time in NFL history a team with a sub-.500 record made the playoffs. The Hawks made moves in free agency to try to improve and stay atop the division, but lost veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck and won’t repeat. San Francisco hired Jim Harbaugh as coach and should be improved, and Arizona, which crumbled after Kurt Warner retired, acquired Kevin Kolb to try to improve the offense. The Cardinals have possibly the NFL’s best player in Larry Fitzgerald, and will be in the race. The 2011 NFC West division champ will be the St. Louis Rams, a young, improving club that had a chance to win the division in the season’s final week last year. Look for QB Sam Bradford to move up the ladder of elite QBs this year and guide the Rams to the playoffs. The top rookie in the division, by far, will be Cardinals’ cornerback Patrick Peterson.

After the first two preseason games this year, the Buffalo Bills have given their fans mixed messages as to whether they will improve on the 4-12 record of 2010. In the opener against the Chicago Bears, the first team offense moved the ball well and looked sharp even though they only managed a field goal, and the defense was surprisingly strong, generating 9 sacks against a suspect Bear offensive line. The second game in Denver was an outright disaster. Coach Chan Gailey claimed that the team played vanilla schemes on both offense and defense to better evaluate whether young players can play, basically eliminating the chance of too many mental mistakes overshadowing their physical talent. Normally, this type of evaluation would have been done in the off-season minicamps and OTAs. Gailey couldn’t have been very happy with what he saw, as the Bills looked physically overwhelmed. Donald Jones and Johnny White were injured on plays where they took hard hits from the Denver defense. The offensive and defensive lines both played terribly, as Ryan Fitzpatrick was running for his life the whole time he played, while Kyle Orton picked apart the Buffalo defense for the most part. Here are a few first impressions I got from these 2 games on individual players for the Bills:

Shawne Merriman – judging by his performance in the Bears’ game, his signing late last year could be GM Buddy Nix’s best move. He looks ready to give the Bills a force on defense that opponents will have to account for. The only concern with him is durability, since he has battled injuries and already is being held out of practices and games for “rest”.

Tyler Thigpen – he looks like a competent backup QB so far, a vast improvement over Brian Brohm. It was a good move by the team to add a seasoned veteran to back up Fitzpatrick rather than the unproven Brohm.

Brad Smith – adding this versatile playmaker to the offense and special teams was a great move. He has gotten a surprisingly large amount of snaps at quarterback, which makes you wonder what plans the team has for him in the offense.

Nick Barnett – he was signed to replace Paul Posluszny and so far looks like he is more instinctive and far more active than Poz. The amount of times he overruns plays makes a fan wince, so it’d be a good idea if new LB coach Dave Wannstedt could get him to play a little more under control.

Danny Batten – one of the forgotten draft picks of 2010 who sat out all last year with injuries, he looks like he can play in the league once he gets a little more polished. On a team desperate for improved play at the linebacker position he should get ample opportunity to get playing time.

Arthur Moats – he was one of the surprise positive developments as last season wore on, after he was moved from inside LB to the outside. He has been moved back inside and gotten most of his playing time in the preseason this year with the backups, which is a little tough to understand. On a team that traded a quality veteran like Lee Evans to supposedly give their young receivers opportunities, it makes no sense to have a guy like Moats playing behind mediocrities like Reggie Torbor and Andra Davis.

Marcel Dareus – finally, after years of picking busts like John McCargo and Aaron Maybin, the team looks like it has found a quality defensive player who will be a difference-maker. He had a sack in each game and has looked like he’s ready to start from day one.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – his play in the Denver game isn’t going to give too many Bills’ fans a lot of hope that the offense will improve this year. He didn’t get much help from his offensive line, but didn’t look sharp at all. He showed no signs of the player he became last season after becoming the starter, but hopefully the timing will improve as the preseason goes on.

Leodis McKelvin – the Broncos had a ton of long, sustained drives and consistently kept them alive by throwing at McKelvin on third down. For a high first round draft pick, he is the furthest thing from a “shutdown corner” that you can get. Reggie Corner and rookie Aaron Williams have both outplayed him in my opinion, and to me he should be sent packing along with McCargo and Maybin as another draft bust. It will be interesting to see how the coaches evaluate him.

Alex Carrington – he looks much improved and I see him lining up with Dareus and Kyle Williams as third starter on the three-man line when the season starts.

Marcus Easley – like Batten, he was out all year with injuries and this is basically his rookie season. He hasn’t shown much yet, but with both Donald Jones and Namaan Roosevelt slated to miss the last 2 exhibitions due to injuries, he will get a great opportunity to impress the coaches and earn some playing time.