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The playoff hopes of the Buffalo Bills for this season were all but ended by the 28-24 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday, and that’s a major disappointment to their fans, who had high hopes after the team started 5-2. After 4 straight losses and devastating injuries to a number of key players on a roster that didn’t have a whole lot of talent to begin with, the Bills now have to use the final 5 games to figure out which players are going to be part of the team going forward into next season. With Fred Jackson out for the year, they’ll find out whether C.J. Spiller can carry the load at running back, or if he is just a novelty, Reggie Bush type of player. They have to decide whether Stevie Johnson is worth investing big dollars in. He is a good enough player, but his selfish antics and penchant for dropping balls in the most critical situations are things that don’t appear to be getting better. He is the Bills’ version of DeSean Jackson, a talented receiver for the Eagles who is a major distraction for that team. GM Buddy Nix should step in at this point and suspend Johnson for next week’s game, since his selfish touchdown display and drops at the end of the game practically single-handedly cost the Bills the game on Sunday. He should then be told to spend the time he spends dreaming up ridiculous celebrations on catching extra passes after practice to improve his game, and that he has the final 4 games to prove that he deserves to be signed to a new contract for next season. After 3 straight awful games, the Bills’ offense at least returned to respectability, against a good Jet defense. There were plenty of positives to build on the rest of the season – the play of 2 players whose development has solidified them as major factors going forward, David Nelson and tight end Scott Chandler. The beleaguered offensive line played a decent game, other than having some penalty problems. Guys like Kraig Urbik, Chad Rinehart, Erik Pears and stellar rookie Chris Hairston will be getting valuable experience the rest of the way. Johnson, for the second time this year, had pretty good success against Derrelle Revis, the guy who supposedly blankets all the great receivers. On talent alone, he is worth keeping for the future, but he needs to be given a wake-up call attitude-wise, which is why I think a suspension would be a good idea.

On defense, the Bills have been bad all year, even when they were winning. They played well in routs against the Chiefs and Redskins, but in all other games have not been able to stop anybody consistently. Their third down defense has been really bad, and they have not been able to make stops at crucial times in close games. The Bengals, Giants and Jets all drove downfield at will when the game was on the line and picked up wins. That being said, there were signs of improvement from the defense in Sunday’s game. Although they buckled and gave up touchdowns at the end of both halves, with both TDs looking like they were the result of blown coverages, overall the new players in the secondary, Aaron Williams, DaNorris Searcy and Justin Rogers, all made plays on the ball and had decent coverage on receivers at times. The linebackers looked a little more active than usual, and even disrupted some passes. They’ve clearly moved on from Leodis McKelvin, who likely won’t be back next year. Again, the experience players like Williams, Rogers and Searcy get the rest of the year will help them going into next season. The biggest negative with the defense is the lack of a pass rush. The play of the youngsters in the secondary is even more impressive considering the lack of pressure on the opposing QB. Somehow, the coaching staff has to accelerate the development of players like Marcell Dareus, Alex Carrington and Torell Troup (who wasn’t even active Sunday) on the defensive line, and figure out how to manufacture some pressure from their stable of young linebackers.

After picking 8 winners out of 14 games played last weekend, my season prediction record stands at 101 correct and 59 wrong. Here are the week 12 picks, starting with 3 very interesting Thanksgiving Day games:

Green Bay at Detroit – the Lions usually treat this game like it’s their Super Bowl, and have righted themselves after a brief slump. I believe they will shock the football world and upset the Packers.

Miami at Dallas –  the Dolphins are riding high with 3 straight wins, and should stay competitive, but the Cowboys are the better team and won’t blow an opportunity to stay on top of the NFC East. Dallas wins at home.

San Francisco at Baltimore – the battle of the Harbaugh brothers should be a real slugfest. John’s Ravens have one of the NFL’s toughest defenses, but Jim’s 49ers have quietly played some stingy D all year also in compiling a 9-1 record. The Ravens have been terribly inconsistent all year, but I think their experience edge over the young Niners will carry them to the win.

Buffalo at New York Jets – the playoff hopes of the loser of this game will be effectively over. The Jets have not been the world-beaters they proclaimed themselves, but they have the Bills’ number lately, and Buffalo is in the midst of an epic collapse that they appear to not know how to get out of. The Jets win easily.

Minnesota at Atlanta – this should be a one-sided win for the Falcons on their home field, especially if Adrian Peterson is still hobbled from an injury suffered last week.

Carolina at Indianapolis – Cam Newton’s play has leveled off since early in the year, and I believe the Colts need to put it together and win a game to placate their disappointed fan base. The Colts win their first game of the year in a high-scoring game.

Houston at Jacksonville – Matt Leinart, a high draft pick bust in Arizona, gets an opportunity to revive his career as he takes over at QB for the Texans in place of the injured Matt Schaub. The Texans will win this game because of the play of their defense, which will stymie the Jaguars as Leinart finds his way.

Cleveland at Cincinnati – the Bengals have been sent back to Earth after consecutive losses to the Steelers and Ravens, but they still have a shot at the playoffs and are a much better team than the Browns, and will win on their home field.

Arizona at St. Louis – two teams playing out the string, and a very tough game to handicap since both are inconsistent. I’ll go with the Rams at home.

Tampa Bay at Tennessee – this has been a disappointing season for the Bucs, who especially haven’t done well on the road. The Titans keep their playoff hopes alive with a big win.

Washington at Seattle – the Seahawks are coming off a win, while the Redskins lost an overtime heartbreaker to Dallas. While the ‘Skins are still playing hard, they don’t have the horses to win this game. Seattle wins handily.

Chicago at Oakland – this is a game with serious playoff implications for both teams. The Bears’ defense will be the difference as they control the Raider offense and nail down a hard-fought low scoring game.

New England at Philadelphia – the Patriots, as they always do, are peaking at the right time. They’ll win this game to put the final nail in the coffin of the Eagles’ playoff hopes.

Denver at San Diego – the Tebow magic ends here. The Chargers are too good of a team to continue playing the sloppy football they’ve played this year, and they’ll put together a solid effort and win.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City – the Steeler defense against Chief QB Tyler Palko is a complete mismatch.  Pittsburgh wins handily.

New York Giants at New Orleans – if the Giants can win at New England, they can win here. The Saints are considered a Super Bowl contender, but their defense can’t stand up to the physical Giants’ running game. I’ll pick New York to win and stay tied for their division lead.

The Buffalo Bills’ game against Miami on Sunday, a resounding 35-8 Dolphin win, followed pretty much the same script as last week’s blowout loss in Dallas, as the team looked horrible again and was outcoached and outplayed in every phase of the game. For three straight weeks now, the team has looked not ready to play, and instead of finding answers it has gotten progressively worse in each loss. When a team isn’t physically or mentally ready to play, the result is their opponent winds up steamrolling them, and worse, these types of games become dangerous as the unprepared players getting physically whipped all day long start getting carted off with injuries. That’s exactly what happened to the Bills for the second week in a row. In the last 2 weeks it was Eric Wood, George Wilson and even kicker Rian Lindell, who hurt his shoulder making a tackle on a kick return because the rest of his kick coverage teammates were asleep. This week, Terrence McGee, Donald Jones, David Nelson and Fred Jackson all got hurt, with McGee and Jones probably now lost for the season. The Bills have been a great story early in the year, but the losses of Wood on the offensive line and Kyle Williams on the defensive front have effectively removed the aggressiveness from both units.

On offense, the Bills seemed to have a good plan on the opening drive, using screen passes to break big gains and slow down Miami’s aggressive pass rush. It might have been a good day for them, except that for the second week in a row, the defense couldn’t stop anything. In ending last week’s post reviewing the Bills’ loss to the Cowboys, I stated that if the Bills’ couldn’t find some answers to improve their defense, they would wind up making Matt Moore look like the second coming of Dan Marino. Moore wears jersey # 8, but he may as well have worn 13 on Sunday. The Fish scored touchdowns on their first 4 possessions. When that happens, the other team’s offense, in this case the Bills, is inevitably going to look bad trying to keep up. Granted, the offense didn’t help matters by turning the ball over and putting the D in bad spots, but on a supposed playoff team, shouldn’t the defense be expected to make a stand at some point when things are going bad? The Bills’ defense isn’t terrible, in fact they swarm to the ball, hustle and try hard on first and second downs throughout every game. Then on third down, they become clueless, passive and robotic and will continually give up first downs. It’s gotten to the point where Bills’ fans have that feeling on third down that they’ve had in the team’s worst losing seasons. If it’s third and one, they’ll surrender the yard. If it’s third and 3, they’ll give up 5, if it’s third and 12, they’ll allow a receiver to run a 15 yard pattern unchallenged and give up the first down. On the flip side, for this particular game, the Bills’ offense had ZERO third down conversions. ZERO. Not against the 1970s Steel Curtain defense, against the 2-7 Dolphins. This is a team that clearly has lost all of whatever momentum they had early in the year. They are 10 games into the season, and have now regressed on offense, defense and special teams. A missed blocking assignment on a punt that causes a blocked kick? In week 10? That’s just unacceptable. Going into next week’s game against the Jets, the coaching staff has to realize that at this point there are no more rookies or “young” players. They need to find some playmakers somewhere on the roster in a hurry, especially among the defensive players.

 Week ten was by far the worst so far for me in picking games, as I got only 6 correct and 10 wrong. The overall record for the year now stands at a still respectable 93-53, and here are my choices for week eleven:

New York Jets at Denver – this week’s featured Thursday night game. The Jets have to follow up a crushing division loss to New England with a short week, cross country road trip to a tough location to play in. I can’t imagine Denver beating the Jets, however, using an offense in which Tim Tebow completes only 2 passes, as the Broncos did last week. The Jets will struggle, but they’ll win a low-scoring defensive battle.

Buffalo at Miami – these 2 teams are going in opposite directions, as the Fish have won 2 in a row while Buffalo has lost 2 in a row and not played well in either. Miami’s wins, however, have been against teams the Bills have beaten easily also. The Bills will regroup and win a game they have to win to keep their season from completely collapsing.

Cincinnati at Baltimore – the Ravens may be the most disappointing team in the league right now. They’ve beaten the Steelers twice, then lost to Seattle last week. I think they’ll use the rage from the Seattle upset to take down the young Bengals at home in a defensive struggle.

Jacksonville at Cleveland – a game that should turn out to be another typical field goal fest, which every Browns’ game seems to turn out to be. I’ll go with the Jaguars, who have a better defense and running game.

Carolina at Detroit – the Lions need to win this game to turn their momentum back around, but they could get caught looking ahead to the big Thanksgiving matchup with Green Bay. Detroit’s defense will contain Cam Newton enough to pull out a win that winds up a closer game than it should be.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay – the Pack is a juggernaut at this point, especially at home. They’ll beat the Bucs handily.

Oakland at Minnesota – Carson Palmer is starting to find his way with the Raider offense, and they need to keep winning to stay in the NFC West race. A close win for Oakland on the road.

Dallas at Washington – the Cowboys are rolling, while the Redskins are the worst offensive team in the NFL at this point. Dallas will win, but because it’s a division rivalry game, it will be fairly close.

Arizona at San Francisco – the Niners pretty much already have the NFC West title wrapped up, but they don’t appear to be the type of team to rest on their laurels. San Francisco wins at home.

Seattle at St.Louis – Seattle is an enigma, beating teams they have no business beating and looking horrible in their losses. The Rams are dangerous at home, and I’ll pick them to win here.

Tennessee at Atlanta – the Titans have had their moments this year, but this won’t be one of them. The Falcons will be highly motivated after a tough division loss to the Saints last week, and will win easily.

San Diego at Chicago – the Bears are peaking at the right time, while the Chargers are the AFC’s biggest underachievers. Chicago’s defense keys an easy win at home.

Philadelphia at New York Giants – the Eagles are the NFC’s version of San Diego, underachieving and certainly far from a “Dream Team”. Mike Vick has broken ribs and even if he plays, his effectiveness has to be limited. I’ll pick the Giants to win at home.

Kansas City at New England – the Patriots just don’t lose to teams they should beat. They’ll methodically dismantle the Chiefs and win easily.

One thing that has been aggravating about the surprising start to the 2011 season for the Buffalo Bills is that every time they’ve lost in the first half of the year, the national media “experts” have smugly dismissed them as a “fraud” and although they have gotten a lot of positive attention, mostly there has been a feeling that they would level off and eventually return to their losing ways. After Sunday’s 44-7 dismantling of the Bills by the Dallas Cowboys, those smug experts may turn out to be right. In my recent mid-season assessment of the Bills, I mentioned that the team’s new franchise QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, needed to eliminate turnovers if the Bills were going to continue to stay in the playoff hunt. He threw 3 in the rout against Dallas, and Fred Jackson added a fumble in what was easily the most dismal offensive performance this year by the Bills. Jackson did manage to gain over 100 yards on the ground again, but his yardage came mostly in garbage time when the game was already decided, which on Sunday was probably some time midway through the second quarter. As bad as the Bills’ offense played on Sunday, I still think they are a good enough unit to contend for a playoff spot this year. The problem is the team’s porous defense, which started to show some progress recently, especially in the shutout win over the Redskins in Toronto. But they were awful in Dallas, getting streamrolled by the Cowboy attack that showed them absolutely no respect. The Bills’ D made Tony Romo, an erratic mess in most games this year, look like the second coming of Joe Montana, as he led his team on touchdown drives on their first 4 possessions. Once again, the team got zero pressure on the quarterback, in this case a quarterback who has melted all year long when rattled even a little. Romo was laughing and having a great time on the sideline as early as the start of the second quarter, never appearing to have any trepidation of being involved in a tough game. I really believe the defense’s inability to stop or even slow down the Cowboys’ attack is the main reason the team got hammered. In fact, Jackson’s rushing yardage is a sign of what the team could’ve accomplished had the defense done anything to keep the game manageable. There were 2 plays in the game that told the story of how one-sided it was. First, there was Dez Bryant’s touchdown catch over Leodis McKelvin on the ‘Boys opening drive. It was a great play, and McKelvin had pretty good coverage, but it foretold how much of a “men against boys” contest this was going to be. The other play was a simple throw and catch for a first down by Romo to his tight end, Jason Witten, on a third down on one of the many Dallas scoring drives. On the play, three Bills defenders stood in a line just behind the defensive line, apparently covering their “zones”, while Witten just ran a couple yards past them, turned around and caught the ball for the first down. The 3 Bills’ defenders, all looking bewildered, then turned around and converged on Witten to make the tackle. I’m not any kind of football defensive scheme expert, but I have to believe in any scheme that one of those players needs to be responsible for actually covering the opponents’ biggest third down receiving weapon. My point is that the Bills’ defensive coaches are either doing a terrible job of putting the players in positions to succeed, or they need to put players on the field who actually understand the scheme and don’t turn the game into an easy practice session for the opposing offense. Despite the rout, technically the Bills are still very much in both the division title and playoff races. At 5-4, they are in much better position than more bally-hooed teams like the Eagles or the Chargers, but unless they somehow come up with some answers on defense, they’re in deep trouble. Their next opponent, the Miami Dolphins, have gotten up off the mat and won 2 games in a row. They are starting to believe in their injury replacement QB, Matt Moore. Unless the Bills fix something by next week, it’ll look like a Dan Marino highlight reel.

After picking 8 winners out of 14 games last week, my record for the season stands at 87 correct and 43 wrong. Here are my week ten choices:

Oakland at San Diego – this is the first of the NFL’s Thursday night games, and I’ll go with the Chargers at home, with Oakland still trying to adjust to new QB Carson Palmer.

Buffalo at Dallas – the Cowboys are certainly tougher at home than on the road, but I believe Buffalo will regroup after a poor performance against the Jets and win a close game here, with their defense coming up with timely turnovers.

New Orleans at Atlanta – huge NFC South battle that may decide the division title. The Falcons have righted the ship after a slow start, and their defense is head and shoulders over the Saints’, who may have the worst tackling defense in the NFL.

Tennessee at Carolina – I expect Chris Johnson to have a decent game running the ball for the Titans, but I also feel Cam Newton will pull out a big Panther win using his arm and legs.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – normally I would go with the Steelers to rebound after a tough loss at home to the Ravens by dominating rookie QB Andy Dalton and shutting down the Bengals, but on a hunch I’ll pick Cinci to continue its’ shocking success by winning at home, with their defense outplaying the vaunted Steeler D.

St. Louis at Cleveland – the Rams, who once played in Cleveland a long time ago, will tough out a win on the road in a battle of teams that are both a long way from being serious contenders.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis – this will be the week when the Colts finally show some pride and come together as a team to get their first win, even though the Jaguars are a tough out.

Denver at Kansas City – maybe there really is something to this Tim Tebow phenomenon. The Chiefs are smarting from taking a hammering from Miami last week in their own home stadium, and the home fans will leave disappointed again this week as Tebow leads another Bronco victory.

Washington at Miami – the Dolphins are starting to believe in replacement QB Matt Moore, while the Redskins are in shambles, mostly on offense. Miami builds on the momentum from their big win in Kansas City last week by beating the ‘Skins at home.

Arizona at Philadelphia – the Eagles, after being upset at home on Monday night by the Bears, need to win every game they can to stay alive in the playoff race, and won’t slip up here. They’ll beat the inconsistent Cards easily.

Houston at Tampa Bay – this should turn out to be a defensive battle, and even though the Bucs are tough at home and highly motivated after losing to the Saints last week, I’ll go with the Texans to win behind Wade Phillips’ defense. Wade is in his comfort zone coordinating a defense, and excels at it, which is exactly what he’s doing this year with Houston.

Baltimore at Seattle – the Ravens were sleepwalking for 2 weeks but woke up in time to beat the rival Steelers for the second time this season last week. Now they need to beat the teams they should beat, and will do just that by pounding the Seahawks.

Detroit at Chicago – this rough, tough NFC North battle will be won by the Bears, who are starting to win me over with a never-say-die attitude they get from their coach, Lovie Smith. Chicago’s defense will be the difference.

New York Giants at San Francisco – this is a really big test for the young Niners, who are on a roll. I’ll pick the Giants to win based on their advantage in experience and the fact that they need to keep winning to keep the lead in their division, while San Fran is already dominating the weak NFC West and can afford the loss.

New England at New York Jets – the difference here is defense. The Jets are solid on that side of the ball, while the Pats rank dead last in the NFL.  New York wins at home.

Minnesota at Green Bay – I picked against the mighty Packers last week and I still believe they’ll get ambushed somewhere along the line this season, but it won’t be here, at home at Lambeau on the Monday night stage against a weaker division foe. Green Bay wins easily.

The Buffalo Bills’ mid-season report card this year, with the team at 5-3 and in a 3-way tie for the lead in the AFC East, has a lot more bright spots than last season’s, when the team was winless. Here’s an in depth look at the club as it reaches the halfway point of the 2011 season:

Front Office / Coaching

GM Buddy Nix has to be given credit, first of all, for hiring a man who has turned out to be a competent head coach in Chan Gailey. That’s no small thing after a decade of Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey on the job training and the bland Dick Jauron years. Nix has also done a decent job of adding talent to the roster, including some great waiver wire finds, like tight end Scott Chandler and offensive linemen Kraig Urbik, Erik Pears and Chad Rinehart. The free agent signings for this year have been contributors – Brad Smith and Nick Barnett have both made plays to help the team win, while Tyler Thigpen, although he hasn’t seen any game action yet, is a comfort to have as a veteran backup quarterback, something the Bills lacked last season. The jury is still out on Nix’s 2 college drafts, but there has been some development among the younger players. Gailey’s coaching staff has been excellent at putting the players in the right positions to make plays on both sides of the ball. The offense has been productive and entertaining, while the defense, obviously still a work in progress, has come up with turnovers at crucial moments in the team’s victories.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the team’s roster at the half-way point:

Quarterback

In my 2010 mid-season report card for the Bills, one of the things I criticized was the mistake Gailey made in going with Trent Edwards over Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to start the season. He did rectify that mistake after only 2 games, and has been rewarded with excellent play at the position by Fitzpatrick. “The Amish Rifle” has displayed a knack for making quick decisions and getting rid of the ball on time to avoid sacks, and also for using all the weapons at his disposal to keep drives alive and score touchdowns, something rarely seen here over the last decade. During the second half of the season, Fitzpatrick does need to make sure he keeps turnovers to a minimum if the Bills are going to stay in the playoff race. As stated earlier, Thigpen is a good addition to the roster, if only for his veteran experience and knowledge of Gailey’s offense from their days together in Kansas City. He’s a good insurance policy to have in case anything should happen to Fitzpatrick. Brad Smith is the third QB, and has been used exclusively in short yardage wildcat formations, where he’s been effective.

Running Back

Without a doubt, Fred Jackson has been the Bills’ MVP in the first half of 2011. He has been a reliable and durable fixture on the offense, and has excelled in both the running and passing games, as well as picking up blitzes. He has been such an important part of the team’s attack that they have struggled with finding ways to get C.J. Spiller involved in the offense. Spiller has been mostly effective in limited playing time in the backfield, and was even used as a wide receiver when injuries hit that position. Johnny White got a little playing time in the one-sided win over Kansas City on opening day, but his contributions will mostly come on special teams.

Receivers

The Bills were hit hard by injuries at the receiver spot in the first eight games, losing Roscoe Parrish and Marcus Easley for the season and Donald Jones for an extended period. Naaman Roosevelt, one of the team’s final cuts, was re-signed when the injuries hit, and has made the most of the second chance. Stevie Johnson is the jewel of this group, a real rising star in the league, while David Nelson has become a go-to player, especially on third down and in the red zone. Tight end Scott Chandler has already set a club record for touchdowns by a tight end for a season, and has been a revelation so far this year. Mike Caussin and Lee Smith are Chandler’s backups, and haven’t seen much action. Ruvell Martin, a backup wide receiver, is basically a special teamer.

Offensive Line

It’s debatable whether the Bills’ offensive line has made tremendous strides and become a positive where it used to be considered a weakness, or whether Fitzpatrick’s play is making them look good. It needs to be stated that the line has also done a great job of run-blocking for Jackson. There are 3 draft choices on the line who are or are going to be key players going forward for the franchise. Center Eric Wood is getting mentioned as a Pro Bowl candidate, and guard Andy Levitre, now filling in at left tackle because of injuries, deserves to be also. The third player is rookie tackle Chris Hairston, who was outstanding filling in at left tackle when starter Demetrius Bell was hurt, before being injured himself. Bell will be a free agent after this season, and since he barely retained his starting job this year, there’s a chance the Bills won’t resign him. Look for Hairston, once he’s healthy, to take over that spot later this year. On the right side of the line, two waiver pickups – Urbik and Pears, have held their own, while backups Rinehart, Colin Brown and Sam Young have been solid in limited opportunities. As a whole, the group has not had a lot of penalty problems, or given up many sacks, and has become a strength of the team.

Defensive Line

The news that Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams is lost for the season is going to be a huge blow for this unit. It probably means that top draft pick Marcell Dareus will remain at the spot, where he looked very comfortable in having a dominant game against Washington recently. Dwan Edwards has been solid at one end spot, and the question going into the second half of the season will be who will take over the other end position. The top candidates are Chris Kelsay, now a linebacker but probably more effective on the line,  Alex Carrington, who still appears to be learning, and Spencer Johnson, an effective playmaker in limited playing time who is the best option in my mind. Backup nose tackles Kellen Heard and Torell Troup should also get extensive playing time now that Williams is out.

Linebacker 

In my pre-season preview of the Bills, I predicted that the club’s linebacking corps would probably look a lot different by season’s end than it did at the start of the year. So far, rookie Kelvin Sheppard has supplanted Andra Davis at one inside LB spot, while Shawne Merriman’s season has ended due to injury, opening up playing time for both Danny Batten and Arthur Moats. Nick Barnett has been a solid addition at the other inside spot, while Kelsay has held down the other outside spot, although he may have to be more involved in the D-line rotation now. Backups Kirk Morrison and Chris White have been active in the few chances they’ve gotten. Antonio Coleman, another late cut, was brought back after Merriman went down.

Defensive Backs

You have to break this group up into cornerbacks and safeties to evaluate them. The corners, Drayton Florence, Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee, have taken turns getting toasted and making plays so far, while safeties Jairus Byrd and especially George Wilson, have been outstanding. As for the backups, Bryan Scott has been an invaluable player for a few years now, while Reggie Corner, another late cut who was brought back, is a solid nickel or dime cover corner. A pair of rookies look like they will be solid contributors in the future – cornerback Aaron Williams, who unfortunately is hurt, shows potential while Da’Norris Searcy has been great on special teams, and single-handedly saved the win over the Raiders with his last-play interception. Another rookie, Justin Rogers, will get his chances in the second half.

Special Teams

Bruce DeHaven’s units have done a good job for the most part this year. Both the kckoff and punt coverage units have been effective, while the return teams haven’t done much for a couple reasons. Kickoff returns have been significantly curtailed by the new kickoff rules, which also limit Spiller’s ability to contribute, as well as Brad Smith’s. The loss of Parrish to injury has obviously hurt the punt return game. Long snapper Garrison Sanborn’s game is good, the measuring stick being no big mistakes on snaps in the kicking game. Punter Brian Moorman’s game seems to be back on track after some early troubles, and Rian Lindell has been solid on field goals. Lindell’s shoulder injury will sideline him for 4-6 weeks, so new kicker Dave Rayner will have big shoes to fill.

The result of Sunday’s matchup between the Bills and Jets, a 27-11 New York win, certainly wasn’t totally unexpected, as the Jets have dominated the series since Rex Ryan became their coach. There was some hope on Buffalo’s side going into the game, as the Bills have gotten some big monkeys off their collective backs in getting off to a 5-2 start, the biggest being finally beating New England. But it wasn’t to be as the Jets, rested coming off their bye week, proved to be the more desperate team. Their defense was pretty dominant, holding Buffalo’s offense in check for the first time this season. Their offense did just enough to get the win, rushing for 126 yards and keeping drives alive by converting third downs all day long. The game featured some horrendous officiating by Ed Hochuli’s crew, as the Jets got away with numerous pass interference violations, both offensively and defensively, while the Bills were flagged for questionable interference calls. Two of those calls led directly to 14 Jet points, and while the officiating didn’t really change the outcome of the game, it certainly made the score much more lopsided than it should have been.

In their 3 losses so far this year, the Bills have followed the same formula – they’ve turned the ball over, failed to get any heat on the opposing quarterback and struggled to get off the field on third down on defense. In this game, the Bills’ defense holding the Jets to the 126 rush yards would normally be a positive, since it’s less than half of the 279 yard average per game they’ve given up to the Jets in recent meetings. However, it was still a game where, despite not breaking off any huge runs, the Jets seemed to get yards at will when they needed them on the ground to sustain drives. Contrast that with the Bills’ offense’s inability to convert 3rd and 4th downs needing less than a yard, and you have what would have been a relatively easy Jet victory even without the help from the zebras.

Still, the Bills shouldn’t be discouraged. Thanks to some late-game heroics by Eli Manning and the Giants at New England, they are now locked in a three-way tie atop the AFC East with identical 5-3 records. The Pats and Jets lock horns next Sunday night, so if the Bills can tough out a road win at Jerry Jones’ Palace in Dallas next week, they’ll still be right in the thick of the playoff race.

After picking 9 winners out of the 13 NFL games played last weekend, my season prediction record stands at 79 correct and 37 wrong. With the season reaching the halfway point, teams are starting to establish their 2011 identities, which should make it easier to pick winners, but that never seems to be the case. Here are my week 9 choices:

New York Jets at Buffalo – this would be a huge statement win for the Bills, but recent history shows that the Jets show up at the Ralph, play well and usually win easily, then the Bills return the favor and upset the Jets in New York. I’ll pick the Jets to win a close, low-scoring defensive game.

Seattle at Dallas – a game between 2 teams that are practically impossible to predict. I have to believe that the Cowboys will be focused and motivated after getting thrashed by the Eagles last week, and will win at  home .

Cleveland at Houston – the Browns cannot match the offensive firepower that the Texans have. This game looks like a mismatch on paper but the Browns’ defense should keep it reasonably close. However, the Texans will win.

Atlanta at Indianapolis – the Falcons are beginning to peak, while the Colts, Peyton Manning or not, are the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year. Atlanta wins easily.

Miami at Kansas City – the Chiefs  continue their amazing rise from the scrap heap by beating the  game but undermanned Dolphins at home .

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – the Saints got ambushed by the Rams last week, and should be ready to avenge a loss to the Bucs earlier this year. The loser of this game may be finished  as far as playoff possibilities, and I think the Saints, although they have a flawed defense, will win behind a rousing home crowd.

San Francisco at Washington – Jim Harbaugh’s Niners are becoming a juggernaut, and will beat the Redskins, who have major injury troubles and not much working on offense.

Denver at Oakland – the Raiders come off a bye week that enabled them to get new QB Carson Palmer familiar with the offense. After getting blasted by the Chiefs the Raider defense will be primed to shut down Tim Tebow and will win this game, although it should be a defensive struggle.

Cincinnati at Tennessee – both of these teams have been pleasant surprises this year. The Titans are especially tough at home, but the Bengals are one of the few teams with a defense that stops people and tackles well, so I’ll pick them to win here.

St. Louis at Arizona – the Rams will be flying high after finally winning this week, while the Cards have been a major disappointment. St. Louis wins their second in a row, this time against a division foe.

New York Giants at New England – it’s been a long time since the Giants shocked the Pats in the Super Bowl to ruin their perfect season, but in my mind, the Giants are a better team now than they were then, while the Patriots are not. The Giants win a huge road game to stay firmly on top of the NFC East.

Green Bay at San Diego – the Chargers really blew a sure victory on Monday night against the Chiefs, and this is the type of game they normally get pumped up for and actually play up to their potential. I’ll pick the Chargers to pull the upset here as the Pack, with a big lead in their division, gets caught taking a west coast vacation .

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – the Ravens crushed the Steelers on opening day and did a lot of trash talking afterwards. Pittsburgh has since righted their ship while the Ravens have been inconsistent. Pittsburgh evens the score with a tough, physical win at home.

Chicago at Philadelphia – the Eagles are finally on a roll now, and it will continue with a rousing Monday night win over the Bears, with Jay Cutler having a tough night.

According to coach Chan Gailey, the Bills’ braintrust spent the bye week breaking down the defense in the team’s first 6 games, and were determined to do whatever was necessary to improve on that side of the ball. Apparently, judging by the Bills’ 23-0 shutout of the undermanned Washington Redskins on Sunday, the tinkering went well. After racking up only 4 sacks and very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks in those previous 6 games, the Bills sacked John Beck 9 times on Sunday, and made his day pretty miserable overall. Granted, the ‘Skins were missing at least 5 starters from their offensive unit, and they looked like a team full of players who weren’t used to playing with each other. But Buffalo was forced to play without starters Shawne Merriman and Kyle Williams. With Williams out and Torrell Troup not fully healthy, the Bills moved rookie Marcell Dareus inside to nose tackle and he responded with a monster game, recording 2 1/2 of the team’s sacks and spending a lot of time in the backfield disrupting Washington plays. Arthur Moats got a bulk of the playing time in Merriman’s spot and was active all day also, getting credit for a half sack but getting lots of pressure off the edge on Beck. The Bills’ starting safeties continued their stellar play, as Jairus Byrd got a sack and a pick, and George Wilson had an interception to go along with a team-high 8 tackles.

The offensive effort was workmanlike, with Ryan Fitzpatrick guiding a steady attack, spreading the ball around and hitting tight end Scott Chandler for a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson, who is now having his name mentioned in league MVP conversations, helped his cause by rushing for 120 yards and catching passes for 74 more. For really the first time all season, the Bills were held to field goal attempts on some of their drives instead of touchdowns, but with the defense playing so well the urgency to pile up points wasn’t really there and the team never seemed in jeopardy of losing control of the game. The win sets up a huge AFC East matchup next week against the New York Jets, who’ll be rested coming out of their bye week. It’ll be a big test for the Bills – but they now have 2 things going for them. One, they’ve passed all the big tests they’ve faced so far this year, and two, they’ll be back at their real home at Ralph Wilson Stadium, feeding off the energy of their real home fans.