rayonsports.com

Sunday’s season finale for the Buffalo Bills in New England proved one thing – the team is perfectly capable of competing with the Patriots for one quarter of an NFL game. Beyond that, the difference in quality between the two organizations is wider than the Grand Canyon. It’s almost a good thing that the Bills blew a 21 point lead and not only lost, but were hammered 49-21 in the game, because now when the team’s staff does its’ post-season evaluation, it won’t be clouded by any false promise that the team finished strong with 2 consecutive wins and are somehow on the right track.

This season in the NFL, a lot of teams came back from big deficits to win games, including the Bills early in the year against the Raiders and these same Patriots.  But for a team to blow a 21 point lead and wind up losing by 4 touchdowns, well, that team needs to pull out all of the weapons in its’ losing team arsenal to accomplish that, which is what Buffalo did on Sunday. Poor tackling, blown coverages, no pressure on the opposing QB, interceptions galore (including one returned for a score, of course), another ridiculous, selfish celebration by Stevie Johnson and loads of mistakes in every phase of the game did in the Bills. A side note on Johnson’s antics: Personally, I thought the “Happy New Year” message on his undershirt was funny and in no way “taunting” of the opponent, but he knew it was going to draw a flag and did it anyway. Kudos to Chan Gailey for punishing him by benching him for the rest of the game. It was the right move and tells me that he won’t allow anybody to put himself over the team’s interest.

The Bills have lots of things to fix if they’re going to turn things around in 2012, but the biggest thing is somehow finding a way to get this team to stop doing all the little things so terribly, most of all losing their composure during games. They need to find some veteran players who have experience playing in winning organizations, either through free agency or trades, and infuse them into their roster along with the promising young players. I plan on posting a season-ending “report card” on the team later this week detailing the problems in 2011 and possible fixes for 2012. Rather than write any more depressing comments on the loss to New England, I’ll wait until then to critique the team.

The NFL’s 2011 regular season winds up this week, with all 16 games being played on Sunday. I’m assuming the schedule was set up this way – no Thursday, Saturday or Monday games – so as not to give any unfair advantage (or disadvantage) to teams that qualify for the playoffs. Last week I picked 10 winners out of the 16 games, leaving the season record at a very well rounded 150 correct and 90 wrong. Here are my picks for the final round of regular season games:

Buffalo at New England – supposedly Tom Brady may have an injured non-throwing shoulder, which could limit his playing time. He’ll probably play, but you have to question how much his heart will be in it. To me, the Patriots without Brady are just like the Colts without Peyton Manning, very average. I’ll take the Bills to close the season with a win.

Detroit at Green Bay – the Packers have the NFC’s top playoff seed wrapped up, and the Lions will be playing to not get anyone hurt also. This shapes up like a preseason game, which makes it hard to pick. I’ll go with the home field and pick Green Bay to win.

Tennessee at Houston – the Texans clinched the first playoff berth in their history a few weeks ago, then basically shut it down. The Titans need to win to stay alive, so I’ll pick them to win on the road.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – if the Colts win, they could blow their shot at drafting Andrew Luck, but the Jaguars have incentive to not win also, as they would be allowing a division rival to get the best player in the draft. This game should be a real mess. On paper the Colts are the better team, and I’ll pick them to show some pride and win.

New York Jets at Miami – the Jets need to win, then must get a ton of help to make the playoffs. I don’t think they’re good enough this season to even accomplish the first “must”. Miami pulls the upset at home.

Chicago at Minnesota – both teams have had disappointing seasons, but the Bears still have slim hopes so I’ll pick them to win this game.

Carolina at New Orleans – the Saints could get the second seed and a first round bye if they win and the 49ers lose to the Rams, but that won’t happen. New Orleans has a post-Drew Brees record letdown, and the Panthers get the win.

Washington at Philadelphia – both of these teams have played great football since they’ve been out of the playoff race, a tribute to veteran coaches Mike Shanahan and Andy Reid. I’ll go with the Eagles, who are by far more talented.

San Francisco at St. Louis – Jim Harbaugh has done an amazing job turning the Niners around this year, and they can clinch a playoff bye with a win over arguably the NFL’s worst team. It says here they’ll get it done, then be a legitimate playoff threat.

Seattle at Arizona – both of these teams made late runs to give their fans hope for next year, but the Seahawks have a chance to salvage a winning record so I’ll take them to win on the road.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – the Buccaneers have been running for the bus for weeks, probably getting their coach, Raheem Morris, fired after this game. The Falcons win in a blowout.

Baltimore at Cincinnati –  the Ravens will know the result of the Patriots/Bills game by the time this game is played at 4 PM, so their effort in trying to win is subject to change. The Bengals almost surely need to win to get in, and I’ll go with them at home to pull it off.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – with or without the banged-up  Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers will methodically wear down the Browns  and win.

Kansas City at Denver – although the Tebow Train has been derailed the last 2 weeks, and the Chiefs are resurgent under interim coach Romeo Crennell, I still think the Broncos, at home, will muster up a good enough effort and win this game to sneak into the playoffs.

San Diego at Oakland – Charger coach Norv Turner is on the verge of being fired, and his team’s effort will reflect that. Oakland wins at home to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Dallas at New York Giants – this is a winner-take-all game for the NFC East title, a perfect end to the season as it’s the Sunday night prime time game. Both teams have been dominant at times this year, and both have been awful also. Because they’re playing at home and have players with more big game experience, I’ll pick the Giants to win.

The Buffalo Bills, after suffering through a seven game losing streak in which they hadn’t won a game since late October, turned the calendar back to September with an effort that looked like one of their early season games, beating the Denver Broncos 40-14 on Saturday in their home finale for 2011. Played on Christmas Eve, the win was a great Christmas present for the home fans, as all 3 phases – offense, defense and special teams – made contributions. The offense didn’t play a spectacular game, but played well enough to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t light it up, but did 2 things that he has to continue to do in 2012 if he is to lead the team to a winning season – he didn’t turn the ball over, and he used his legs to pick up a couple first downs and keep drives alive. That’s an important part of his game that’s been missing during the losing streak. C.J. Spiller had his best day as a pro running the ball, gaining over 100 yards and showing that he’ll be an important weapon in both the running and passing game next year.

The defense returned to their form of the early part of 2011, picking Tim Tebow off 4 times with Jairus Byrd and Spencer Johnson returning theirs for touchdowns to put the game away. They also did a good job of shutting down the Bronco running game and for the most part did a pretty good job of getting off the field on third downs. Byrd and Johnson, besides having the pick-sixes, were among the team leaders in tackles for the day, as was rookie cornerback Aaron Williams, who gets better with each game of experience he gets. Williams and fellow rookie Justin Rogers had the other 2 of the 4 picks the defense got. The star of the day for the D, however, was Chris Kelsay. Lined up for most of the game against a rookie tackle, Kelsay played the game of his career, leading the team with 9 tackles and recording 2 sacks on Tebow, one of the toughest QBs to bring down in the league.

 As for special teams, Rogers was again good on kickoff returns, while Leodis McKelvin had a career day returning punts, including an 80 yard TD return. Kicker Dave Rayner had a rough day, missing a chip shot field goal for the second straight week. He did, however, kick 4 field goals in 6 attempts to give the Bills a big enough lead to allow the pass rush to tee off on Tebow in the fourth quarter and create the game-deciding turnovers.

The Bills get one last chance to go into the off-season with a good feeling with a game at New England this week. It’s a tall task and there certainly will be no expectations, but if the players keep a “nothing to lose” attitude and just play hard, who knows what they can do?

I barely broke the .500 mark last week in my game predictions, picking 9 winners and 7 losers. That takes the total season tally to 140 correct and 84 wrong. Here are the picks for week 16:

Houston at Indianapolis – as I expected, the Texans, after clinching the first playoff berth in their history, relaxed and were upset by Carolina. This week Houston will get back on track and defeat the Colts, who finally won a game last week.

Cleveland at Baltimore – the Ravens got roasted in San Diego on Sunday night, then caught a break when the Steelers were beaten in San Francisco on Monday night. They’ll take control here and beat the Browns at home to stay atop the AFC North.

Denver at Buffalo – I can’t see Buffalo’s robotic defense having any idea how to handle the unconventional Tim Tebow offense of Denver. Add to that the fact that the Broncos’ physical defense will probably manhandle the Bills’ offense, and you get a Denver victory that will keep their division title hopes alive.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – Tampa’s coach, Raheem Morris, was being heralded as a bright young coach last year, but now is clearly on a head coaching death watch. The Panthers, who beat the Texans last week and are playing well, win at home.

Arizona at Cincinnati –  both of these teams have slim playoff hopes, but I have to lean toward the Bengals’ defense, and the fact that they’re playing at home, to pick them over the Cardinals.

Oakland at Kansas City – one of pro football’s best rivalries, these 2 teams still can win the AFC West. In fact, all 4 teams in the division are still alive. After stunning Green Bay, I have to believe the Chiefs, under interim coach Romeo Crennell, will be riding high and will win again over the up-and-down Raiders.

Miami at New England – the Dolphins, another team playing under an interim coach, will keep this game competitive, but at this time of year the Patriots don’t fool around. New England wins.

New York Giants at New York Jets – in an amazing turn of events, these 2 teams, who share the same stadium, will be playing in a game in which the loser may be out of the playoffs. It’s technically a Jet home game, but I’ll take the Giants to win since they really need it more to try and stay within reach of the Cowboys in the NFC East.

St.Louis at Pittsburgh – the Steelers and their hobbled QB, Ben Roethlisberger, looked pretty bad on Monday night in losing to San Francisco, and they’ll be loaded for bear in this game. So who comes to town to take the brunt of this? Yikes, it’s the lowly Rams. This is clearly a one-sided Pittsburgh win.

Jacksonville at Tennessee – the Titans’ playoff hopes took a hit last week when they were upset by the lowly Colts, so they’ll take no prisoners here against the Jaguars, whose offensive attack is basically Maurice Jones-Drew against the world. Tennessee wins at home.

Minnesota at Washington – kudos to the Redskins for stepping up and throttling the Giants last week despite being out of the playoffs. They should keep up their positive momentum by beating the Vikings at home.

San Diego at Detroit – the Chargers are in the middle of their annual December roll, and are playing their best football of the season. They have the veteran players to go on the road and win a huge game for both teams’ playoff hopes, and will get it done.

Philadelphia at Dallas – this season has been a disaster for the Eagles, but beleaguered coach Andy Reid, who is a real pro, has them playing great football now even though they’re not going to make the playoffs. With Michael Vick back at the helm, Philly will roll into Jerry’s house and beat the Cowboys.

San Francisco at Seattle – the NFC West was a weak division last season, but at this point this season both of these teams are playing well, and this is a pretty good matchup. The 49ers have the division title wrapped up, so I’ll go with the Seahawks at home to play desperate and pull out a win.

Chicago at Green Bay – the Bears are circling the drain, and having to go to the Frozen Tundra and face a Packer team smarting from being upset by the Chiefs is not what they needed. Green Bay wins in a rout.

Atlanta at New Orleans – this should be a great matchup, and I’ll give the advantage to the home team and pick the Saints to win a very close game.

After the Miami Dolphins blew out the Buffalo Bills, 35-8, earlier in the season, some of the Miami players accused the Bills of “laying down”. The Bills got their chance to respond to those accusations this Sunday, but that response was to lay another egg, as they played an uninspired game marred by turnovers, penalties and blown assignments on defense. The mistake-filled effort led to the Bills’ seventh consecutive defeat in what has turned out to be an extremely disappointing season. The final score was a respectable 30-23, as the Bills made a late charge to make it look closer than it really was. Buffalo’s defense didn’t play a bad game, but gave up 3 touchdowns on big plays that appeared to include major breakdowns. The first was a Matt Moore to Anthony Fasano pass on a play that found the Dolphins’ big tight end wide open as Bills’ safeties George Wilson and Bryan Scott looked at each other bewildered. The second was a Moore to Brandon Marshall bomb that burned veteran Drayton Florence, who in recent weeks looks like he is playing his way out of the team’s 2012 plans. The final one was a 76 yard run by Reggie Bush, who had 200+ yards on the ground for the game. Still, the defense wasn’t the major culprit this time. Buffalo’s offense was terrible, ruining drives with costly penalties all day long and turning the ball over with 3 Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions. The special teams made their weekly negative contribution also, giving up long punt returns all day long and getting a missed chip shot field goal attempt by Dave Rayner.

Rather than dwell on the many negatives the Bills provided again in this game, it may be better to just list the few bright spots from the game. They include, on offense, the play of C.J. Spiller, who had the best game of his young career, and the play of both Stevie Johnson and David Nelson. They both are consistent in what they provide to the attack each week, and on a team that sorely lacks depth, it’s critical that the Bills sign Johnson to a long-term contract if they want to show their fan base that they’re serious about building a winning organization. On defense, the play of 3 rookies – Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard and Marcel Dareus – was encouraging. Williams led the team with 6 tackles and had a forced fumble, while Dareus got a sack, which has been an extreme rarity with this defense this season. Another plus was the kickoff return effort by another rookie, Justin Rogers. He averaged 33 yards per return on 4 returns, with his best being a 54 yarder.

Last week’s selections produced 11 correct picks out of the 16 games, pushing the season record to 131 correct picks and 77 incorrect. Here are my week 15 choices:

Jacksonville at Atlanta – this is an obvious mismatch pitting a down-and-out team that has already fired their coach against a team fighting for a playoff spot, played in the hungry team’s home stadium. This should be a lop-sided Falcon win.

Dallas at Tampa Bay – the Buccaneers have been a major disappointment this year, but you would hope they could muster up a good performance at home and play spoiler against a Cowboy team that has struggled to finish games. They haven’t shown the ability to muster up much of anything, so I say Dallas wins a game they absolutely need to win.

Miami at Buffalo – the Fish come to town having just fired their head coach, which means they’ll either be more motivated, or more disorganized. They beat the Bills soundly in Miami, but I believe Buffalo is not the type of team to mail in the rest of the season. They’ll rise up at home and break their 6 game losing streak by beating Miami.

Seattle at Chicago – this should be a low scoring game, and Seattle is on a roll, while the Bears have lost all their offensive weapons. The Seahawks win.

Carolina at Houston – the Texans wrapped up the first division title in their history last week, and I see this as a trap game for them. They’ll take the Panthers lightly and Cam Newton will lead a surprise upset win for Carolina.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – next season, and the expected return of Peyton Manning, can’t come soon enough for the Colts. They’ll stay winless as the Titans win to stay in the playoff race.

Green Bay at Kansas City – you have to wonder how the Packers can stay motivated for games like this, other than trying to stay unbeaten. It won’t be a total blowout, but the Pack wins again.

New Orleans at Minnesota – the Saints can only lose this game if they beat themselves, and they won’t. Drew Brees carves up a weak Viking defense and leads a New Orleans win.

Washington at New York Giants – the Redskins played New England tough last week, and division games are always struggles, but I have to believe the Giants, now in the driver’s seat in the NFC East race, will pull out a win here.

Cincinnati at St. Louis – the Bengals still have playoff hopes, even though they’ve lost ground playing a brutal schedule recently. They will ride a great effort by their defense to a hard-fought road win over the Rams.

Detroit at Oakland – the loser of this game takes a big hit to their playoff hopes. I’ll say that the proud Raiders rebound from being embarrassed in Green Bay last week and beat the Lions at home.

Cleveland at Arizona – the Browns have no chance of winning in the tough environment in Arizona. The Cardinals continue the roll they’re on with a big win.

New England at Denver – the Broncos are at home and have a much better defense than the Patriots, but this game boils down to Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow. The magic ends here as there’s no way New England allows themselves to become the latest Tebow victim. The Pats rise to the occasion on defense and win.

New York Jets at Philadelphia – Michael Vick is back in the lineup and that makes the Eagles a different team. Although they’re out of the playoffs, the Eagles, under Andy Reid, will be prepared to play hard, especially at home in front of their critical fans. I’ll take Philly to win and throw a wrench into the Jets’ playoff hopes.

Baltimore at San Diego – the Ravens have had some major hiccups against bad teams this year, but still control their own fate in the AFC North race. Baltimore wins here to knock the Chargers out of playoff contention.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco – the defenses will control this game. Because they have much more experience under the Monday Night spotlight, I’ll take the Steelers to outlast the young 49ers.

Well, if the slogan for the Buffalo Bills during their 5-2 start to the season was “UNBILLIEVABLE” then the new slogan for the second half of the year is “IN SHAMBILLS”. That’s where they are at this point in all 3 phases of the game. It’s like beating a dead horse, but once again the offense couldn’t get anything done, the defense allowed long scoring drives and the special teams made a negative play to help contribute to a loss, which this week was a demoralizing 37-10 blowout delivered by the San Diego Chargers. Just like in the Miami game a few weeks ago, the Bills ran into a lowly team that found its’ groove just in time to crush them. After a season full of poor play and turnovers, suddenly Phillip Rivers was nearly perfect, carving up the Buffalo defense all day. One play during the game summed up my biggest beef with the team’s defense all year long, and the TV analyst, Solomon Wilcots, described the replay perfectly afterwards. On the play, the Chargers ran a 2-man route, sending only 2 receivers out on patterns and leaving everybody else in to block. The Bills blitzed on the play, but still had 5 players back in coverage. The Bills’ blitz, of course, got zero pressure on Rivers, but amazingly, in the secondary, the replay showed that Rivers had his choice of either receiver, as both were wide open. So 5 players in coverage and not one of them is actually covering either receiver. The result of the play, predictably, was a big gain for a first down. But the scheme being played was maddening. I believe the problem is over-coaching. The players are caught in a robotic scheme that drains their natural athletic ability and turns them into chess pieces that react late to everything, rather than allowing them to trust their instincts and go make plays. The reason coaches play this way is because they don’t trust the players, who, if left to their own instincts, will wind up falling for play-action fakes and making themselves and the coaches look foolish, resulting in big plays. So the Bills’ defense doesn’t give up a lot of huge plays, but instead wind up losing games by giving up long, time-consuming touchdown drives. I’ve repeated this point often – at some point during games, a defense has to contest something, show SOME aggressiveness.

The Bills, as a whole, have shown a lack of fortitude also. When the defense did come up with a big play – Bryan Scott’s fumble recovery TD that basically was a Christmas gift from Rivers – then hold the Chargers to a 3-and-out and give fans hope that they’re still in the game, the special teams allow a fake punt to work for a first down. Again, predictably, the defense doesn’t stiffen, it gives up another long touchdown drive. Ryan Fitzpatrick immediately follows up with a terrible pick-six interception, and the game is over. It’s really unfortunate that the Bills couldn’t have played the whole season with all of the players they started the year so promisingly with. Having depth on the 53-man roster is becoming a key to any NFL team’s success these days, and the Bills now know how badly they are lacking in that department. The final 3 games, starting this week with a home rematch against the Dolphins, is a three game head start on next year’s exhibition season. Players will be getting their chances to make an impression on the coaches for jobs for next year, and some will be playing their way off the roster.

Rayonsports.com now has a season record of 120 correct predictions and 72 wrong after picking 10 winners out of the 16 games last week. Here are the week 14 picks:

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – these are 2 old division rivals, and over the years the Browns have pulled some upsets in the series, but it won’t happen here. The Steelers are on a roll and will win easily at home.

Indianapolis at Baltimore – there are a few games that appear to be mismatches on this week’s schedule, including this one. The Ravens’ defense is too much for the punchless Colts, and Baltimore can’t afford to slip up with the Steelers on their heels. The Ravens will win.

Atlanta at Carolina – the Falcons find themselves battling to at least stay alive for a wild card spot, and need this game badly. They’ll throttle rookie Cam Newton and sneak out a close win on the road.

Houston at Cincinnati – both of these teams are fighting for playoff position, and both have played good defense this year. I’ll give the Bengals the advantage and pick them to win at home with the Texans playing with their third string QB.

Minnesota at Detroit – the Lions have faltered after a great start but also have played a tough schedule. They’ll win this division battle at home to keep their wild card hopes alive.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville – this hasn’t been a banner year for pro football in Florida, and both of these teams came apart at the seams. The Buccaneers have been extremely disappointing, but they still have a much more talented team than the Jaguars and should find a way to win this game.

Philadelphia at Miami – it’s all over for the self-proclaimed Dream Team in Philadelphia, and they’ll be beaten soundly by a Dolphin team that has righted itself and played great football over the last month.

Kansas City at New York Jets – the Chiefs have virtually no weapons left on offense due to injuries, but they’ve been keeping games close and battling. Still, the Jets need the win and will get it at home.

New Orleans at Tennessee – I can see the Titans’ Chris Johnson running wild against a poor-tackling Saint defense, but it won’t be enough to keep up with the Drew Brees passing show, and the Saints will win.

New England at Washington – the Patriots will put one of their non-flashy methodical beatdowns on an undermanned Redskin team, as they are peaking at the right time, like they always do.

Buffalo at San Diego – both teams have been mired in long losing streaks, but the Chargers broke out of their funk on Monday night and seem to have rediscovered their offense. That spells a blowout win for them over the struggling Bills.

San Francisco at Arizona – the 49ers have taken complete control over what was the NFL’s weakest division last year, and should win here in what will be a close game.

Chicago at Denver – the Bears were starting to come on, then lost QB Jay Cutler, and last week their top weapon, Matt Forte, also got hurt. The Broncos haven’t been an offensive powerhouse behind Tim Tebow, but they keep winning. They’ll keep their surge going with a big win at home.

Oakland at Green Bay – the Raiders, when they’re motivated, can be a tough out, and they still have playoff aspirations, but this is just too tough of a spot for them. The Packers thrill their home fans with another lopsided victory.

New York Giants at Dallas – these 2 NFC East rivals are fighting for the division lead and play twice in the last 4 weeks of the season. Round one goes to the Cowboys, who should get the win in Jerry’s Palace.

St. Louis at Seattle – could there be more of a dog matchup to show on Monday Night Football than this? The Seahawks have played more consistent football so far this year and should win at home.

The Tennessee Titans put the final nail in the Buffalo Bills’ coffin on Sunday, earning an impressive 23-17 win on the road to keep their own playoff hopes alive. Running back Chris Johnson, who had a big game last week, continued to resurrect his season, rushing for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was a methodical win for the Titans, as they took advantage of 2 Buffalo turnovers while not turning it over themselves, and let their running game, led by Johnson, do the heavy lifting on offense. The Bills’ offense didn’t play terribly, but hurt themselves all day with mistakes, dropped passes, penalties and, of course, the turnovers. As coach Chan Gailey said afterwards, they didn’t execute the fundamentals well enough to win the game. The same thing could be said for the defense. Once again, they didn’t pressure the quarterback, didn’t stop the run, didn’t cover receivers and didn’t tackle well at all.

The Bills have now lost 5 games in a row and the excitement they created early in the season seems like a distant memory. They’ve not only lost the 5 games, they’ve lost the battle of attrition as one key player after another has been lost to injury. Although they are not technically eliminated from the post-season yet, they are at the point where they need to start looking for players who will help them continue to advance as an NFL team next year. Here are some things the Bills need to do the last 4 games:

* Continue to develop C.J. Spiller into a major offensive weapon. Had his second touchdown not been called back on a questionable holding penalty, Sunday’s contest would have been a breakout game for him.

* Work with Ryan Fitzpatrick to improve his accuracy and his ball security skills. The Bills made a major investment in him, now he has to earn those big paychecks by investing the time in improving every part of his game.

* Find out what they have on the roster as far as wide receiver talent. Can Brad Smith develop into a starting receiver? Can Naaman Roosevelt become a more reliable option? Is Stevie Johnson worth investing big money in? Are Derek Hagan, Kamar Aiken or practice squad player Tim Toone diamonds in the rough or bodies taking up space?

* See what their new young defensive players – Marcell Dareus, Kelvin Sheppard, Aaron Williams, DaNorris Searcy, Justin Rogers, Joshua Nesbitt, Arthur Moats, Danny Batten, Kellen Heard and Alex Carrington – do with the valuable remaining game experience. Do any of them step up and make a statement that they might be ready to be an impact player in 2012?

* Find out if the 2 young veteran defensive linemen added to the roster, Kyle Moore and Lionel Dotson, have any pass rush skills.

Week 12 wasn’t a great week for me picking games, but I still managed to stay on the positive side of the ledger with 9 correct and 7 wrong. The record for the season stands at 110 right and 66 wrong. Here are the choices for week 13:

Philadelphia at Seattle – neither of these teams is going to the playoffs, but the Eagles may be playing to save coach Andy Reid’s job. Although the Seahawks are tough at home, Philly has more talent and will pull out a win.

Tennessee at Buffalo – the Titans are 2 games out of their division lead but with Houston down to their 3rd string QB, they are legitimate contenders. Chris Johnson finally looks like he’s on track, and I see Tennessee battling to a hard-fought win over the fading Bills.

New York Jets at Washington – the Jets won the game they had to win last week, and are much better talent-wise than the Redskins. It won’t be easy, but the Jets will win.

Kansas City at Chicago – both of these teams are playing with backup QBs, so any further success they have will be because of their defense. The Bears have the edge there, plus the home field which is huge for them. The Bears win.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – the Bengals have a tough defense and rookie QB Andy Dalton has played well, but this is the time of year the Steelers get serious. Pittsburgh wins to stay even with the Ravens in the AFC North.

Atlanta at Houston – the Texans have to try to stay afloat with their third string QB, but Atlanta’s defense is too much of a challenge. The Falcons win on the road.

Denver at Minnesota – Tim Tebow doesn’t really do anything amazing, but he also doesn’t turn the ball over, and allows the running game, which he is a big part of, to keep drives alive to help his defense stay rested. That formula will work again to beat the Vikings.

Carolina at Tampa Bay – Tampa has been disappointing, but this is a home game against a division rival so they’ll find a way to tough out a win.

Indianapolis at New England – when Peyton Manning was playing, these teams played some classic games. Without him, it’ll be over by halftime. The Patriots win in a rout.

Oakland at Miami – both teams have respectable defenses and I expect it to be a low scoring game, but Carson Palmer is getting comfortable in his new surroundings and will make enough plays to give the Raiders the win.

Baltimore at Cleveland – the Ravens are supposed to be one of the AFC’s top contenders and lead the AFC North, but this is the type of game they’ve been blowing all year. I just can’t see an upset here, though, since the season is reaching the point where the top teams have to win to secure the best possible playoff seeding. The Ravens win.

Green Bay at New York Giants – the Packers are solid, and don’t appear to be losing any focus despite basically have their division locked up. The Giants are once again doing their Jeckyl/Hyde act. Green Bay stays unbeaten with a win that pushes the Giants almost out of playoff contention.

Dallas at Arizona – the Cowboys have worked themselves into position to take control of the NFC East race and can’t afford to stumble here. It’ll be close but Dallas wins.

St. Louis at San Francisco – this is a bad matchup between the Rams’ pathetic offense and the tough Niner defense. Looking to get back on track after losing on Thanksgiving night, San Francisco wins easily.

Detroit at New Orleans – the Lions will be missing their top defensive player Ndamukong Suh, against the team they need him for the most. Because it’s at home in their dome, the Saints win easily.

San Diego at Jacksonville – this game is a Monday night clunker. The Jaguars just fired their coach, and the Chargers probably will also very soon. San Diego has underachieved badly but has too much talent to lose here. The Chargers, who started the year 4-1 and are now 4-7, snap their long losing streak with a win.