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The annual series between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots has become eerily similar to what went on between the Bills and Miami Dolphins in the 1970s, when Don Shula’s rock-solid franchise dominated Buffalo completely, posting a perfect 20-0 record against the Bills for the decade. Watching the Bills try to compete with New England since Tom Brady and Bill Bellichick have been together has been painful. The Bills haven’t won in Foxborough since 2000, and have never won in Gillette Stadium. On Sunday, when the Bills piled up almost 120 yards in penalties in the first half alone, I had flashbacks to the “roughing the official” penalty called on Pat Toomay of the Bills in a game against Miami in the old Orange Bowl in the ’70s. There were phantom holding calls on the offensive line and questionable interference calls against the Bills’ secondary. The color analyst for CBS coverage of the game, Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Fouts, was pretty critical of some of the calls. The call that caused me to flash back, however, was a pass interference penalty against a Bills’ defender for grabbing Rob Gronkowski, when on the play Brady actually threw the ball to a different receiver, on the other side of the field. I wasn’t even aware that interference could be called unless a player directly interfered with a receiver trying to catch a pass. The replay clearly showed a foul being committed by the Bill defender on Gronkowski, but, as Fouts pointed out, the call should have been a defensive holding call, which would have been a five yard violation.

In reality, the Bills were their own worst enemy, even though some calls were questionable, as they played without much discipline in the early going and fell behind 17-3. All the penalties, combined with other mistakes, like 2 dropped interceptions on the opening Patriot drive and 3 turnovers, did the Bills in. As usual, the Pats made plays that winning teams make, and the Bills did what losing teams do – they played hard to the end, fought valiantly and did just enough to find a way to lose, again. They should be commended for doing enough, especially on offense, to give themselves a chance to pull the game out in the end. It’s unfortunate, but predictable, that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw the ball directly into safety Devin McCourty’s hands to seal the 37-31 win for the Pats. The Bills just haven’t reached the point where they know how to close out those types of games, and really, Fitzpatrick has yet to show he’s the type of QB that can lead a late comeback. Until the Bills change their current image, they’ll continue to have to fight through not only their opponents but bad officiating calls too. That’s just the way it is for losing teams in the NFL.

As far as the defense goes, the final score should probably warrant another scathing analysis of the unit, which has been pathetic all year. However, I’ll give them a pass this week. For one thing, Brady and the Patriots barbecue opposing defenses on a regular basis each week. It just seems like they’re always torturing the Bills because they play them twice a year every year. Although the Pats scored 7 times in the game, the fact that it was 4 TDs and 3 field goals is at least a little progress. Also, getting 120+ yards help from the officials, and 3 turnovers from the offense, well, that made it pretty easy for Brady & Co. All in all, I actually thought the effort on defense was something the team can build on for the rest of the season. If they can keep up the same level of play, against teams other than New England, they should win some games.

The Buffalo Bills’ mid-season report card this year is certainly not going to be as positive as it was at the halfway point of 2011, when the team was 5-3 and in a 3-way tie for the lead in the AFC East, and the future appeared to be bright. Unfortunately, the Bills won only one more game the entire year, and finished 6-10. Going into the 2012 season, the question was – would the Bills return to the promise of the first half of the 2011 season, or continue down the losing path of the second half. Here’s an in depth look at the club as it has now reached the halfway point of the 2012 season:

Front Office / Coaching

Buddy Nix has been in charge of the Bills’ football department for a long enough period of time to get a good assessment of how he’s done. Does the team have the right coaching staff in place? The jury is still out on Chan Gailey. He has shown that he is a pretty good offensive play caller, but does he have a good enough grasp on the rest of the team? He fired George Edwards as defensive coordinator and put Dave Wannstedt in charge, a move that hasn’t worked out well to this point. Wannstedt’s defense is so bad that it has matched NFL records for futility that date back to the 1950s, and a unit that spent big bucks on defensive players currently ranks as one of the worst in franchise history. Of course, that makes Nix’s signings of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to beef up the pass rush look bad. Also, if Shawne Merriman doesn’t do something in the second half of the season to help the defense, Nix’s fixation with him is going to look really silly.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the team’s roster at the half-way point:

Quarterback

Here’s the thing that needed to happen if the Bills were going to be a playoff contender in 2012 – quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had to cut down on turnovers, which plagued him in the second half of the 2011 season and were a big reason the team collapsed. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out that way. He still has a knack for throwing interceptions and fumbling at crucial times in close games, although Gailey’s play calling has something to do with that. The positive thing about Fitzpatrick is that he also has shown a knack for getting the Bills’ offense in the end zone. The current Bills certainly don’t match the group Jim Kelly led in the Super Bowl era, but when you compare what Fitzpatrick has done with guys like Rob Johnson, J.P. Losman and Trent Edwards, he still, to me, can be a player who can lead an effective offense. He has to stop the maddening turnover trend, and his coach has to help him by putting more emphasis in the game plans on the strength of the team – its’ running game. Neither of the backups, Tyler Thigpen or Tarvaris Jackson, qualifies as an adequate replacement for Fitzpatrick, and it’s a positive for Buddy Nix that he has already publicly stated that the Bills will draft a QB in 2013.

Running Back

As far as I’m concerned, C.J. Spiller has surpassed Fred Jackson as the most dangerous offensive weapon on the Bills’ roster, and it’s imperative that the coaching staff starts to feature him in the second half of the season. In fact, I believe it would have been a good move for Nix to trade Jackson at the trade deadline, which recently passed, especially if Gailey keeps insisting on giving his running backs so few carries in future games. It makes no sense to have 2 quality starting running backs on your roster if you’re not going to use either of them effectively. Tashard Choice has shown he is a solid backup in the opportunities he got early in the year when both Spiller and Jackson were battling injuries. Both fullbacks on the roster, Corey McIntyre and Dorin Dickerson, have gotten few opportunities but have made the most of them when called upon.

Receivers

One of the positive things about Fitzpatrick’s game since he became the Bills’ starting QB has been his knack for spreading the ball around among his receiving corps. Yet, through the first half of the season you can’t help but get the sense that none of the current receiving corps is reaching their potential. Stevie Johnson is still Fitzpatrick’s go-to guy, but hasn’t had a breakout game yet this year. Donald Jones is starting to look like a dependable player now that he’s healthy, and Fitzpatrick appears to trust him. The loss of David Nelson to a season-ending injury hurt the passing game, especially Fitzpatrick’s ability to convert on third down. Rookie T.J. Graham has shown flashes of brilliance but again, the team really hasn’t used him to his full potential. Tight end Scott Chandler has had his moments but you still get the impression he could contribute more. Marcus Easley, who’s become a forgotten man since the Bills drafted him, finally gets his chance to show something in the last 8 games, now that he’s been elevated from the practice squad. Brad Smith gets used mainly in wildcat running formations, after making significant contributions as a receiver last year. Why is it that on a team that stubbornly abandons its’ running game, and passes too much, that the receiving corps seems under-utilized also?

Offensive Line

This unit is still the strength of the team. They do a good job of both run and pass blocking and even though injuries have forced some changes to the makeup of the line as the season has gone on, it’s the one unit where there’s been consistency. Center Eric Wood and guard Andy Levitre have been mainstays, while Chris Hairston has been a lifesaver, first at left tackle filling in for rookie Cordy Glenn, and now on the right side replacing Erik Pears, who is out for the year. Kraig Urbik, the other starting guard, missed some time with injuries but is back now, just in time as his replacement, Chad Rinehart, is also hurt and out for the season. Glenn, when he’s been healthy, has looked solid at the all-important left tackle spot. The season-ending injuries will test the depth along the line in the second half of the year. That depth includes Sam Young, a little-used backup, and 2 brand new additions to the roster – David Snow and Thomas Welch. It’s an understatement to say that this unit can’t afford more injury trouble.

Defensive Line

The defensive line was expected to be one of the strengths of the team in 2012, but they just haven’t played up to their potential. Big ticket free agents Mario Williams and Mark Anderson have been disappointing and also battled injuries. Kyle Williams’ play, overall, hasn’t been bad but when a defense is setting historical negative records, no player is really playing well. Marcell Dareus, who was distracted by personal issues early in the year, had a decent game last week in Houston, but that was his first positive showing all year. He has not played to the level of a player drafted as high as he was.  Among the backups, Kyle Moore and Alex Carrington have had some good moments in limited opportunities, as has Chris Kelsay, although Kelsay, who’s gotten more playing time with Anderson out, has been average at best. You just expect more than mediocrity from veteran leaders on the team. Spencer Johnson, a reliable playmaking backup in past years, hasn’t done much this year. The most disappointing aspect of the play of the front four in Wannstedt’s new 4-3 defense is the absence of any kind of pass rush. Then again, it’s pretty disappointing that the team ranks 32nd, dead last in the entire league, against the run. You know things are bad when Nix brings back Shawne Merriman, a move that reeks of desperation to stop the bleeding.

Linebacker

The linebacking play, like every phase of the defense, has been subpar all year also. Veteran Nick Barnett has been somewhat of a bright spot, but that’s about it. Kelvin Sheppard, the second year starter at middle backer, hasn’t progressed much. Arthur Moats won a starting spot at outside linebacker entering the season, but has already been relegated to the bench in favor of rookie Nigel Bradham. Bradham hasn’t been terrible, but mostly looks like a rookie that has a lot to learn. Veteran Kirk Morrison has been invisible, and Chris White has seen action mostly on special teams, where he hasn’t distinguished himself much. Hybrid linebacker/safety Bryan Scott draws a lot of tough assignments, like trying to cover Rob Gronkowski twice a year, and to his credit has made some plays.

Defensive Backs

My opinion has always been that the young players in the Bills’ secondary would look a lot better when supported by a good pass rush, but even though Wannstedt has failed to manufacture much of that from his front four, I can’t say that I stand by my statement now. Jairus Byrd is a solid player and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore has done more good than bad, but the rest of the secondary has been a disaster. Veteran safety George Wilson, supposedly a team leader, has done absolutely nothing in the first eight games. At the corner spot opposite Gilmore, Aaron Williams has had a target on his back all year from Bills’ opponents, and has looked totally lost. Now he’s hurt and will miss significant playing time, which likely will set him back further. Williams, Leodis McKelvin and Justin Rogers have all looked lost and shown no awareness at all in pass coverage this season. Backup safeties Da’Norris Searcy and Delano Howell haven’t seen enough action to lump them in with all the other failed players on the defensive unit. You have to believe the coaching staff is not pleased with the play of the secondary so far, and I think the additions to the roster for the second half of the season of rookie Ron Brooks (activated from injured reserve) and Crezdon Butler, both cornerbacks, speak volumes. It’ll be interesting to watch how much both of those players get a chance to contribute, and if they’ll be capable of upgrading the defense.

Special Teams

The usually reliable special teams have had their ups and downs this season also, although overall they’ve done their jobs. You never hear long snapper Garrison Sanborn’s name mentioned at all, which means he’s doing a good job. Whether the decision to cut ties with veteran punter Brian Moorman in favor of young Shawn Powell was a good move or not will be decided in the second half of this season, although the early results aren’t good. Now Powell has to learn to handle bad weather punting. Rian Lindell has been his usual reliable self, although the Bills have attempted less field goals than any other NFL team this year. The “kickoff specialist” experiment with rookie John Potter ended this week when he was released. The kick coverage teams have been outstanding, and on returns, McKelvin has been among the league’s best returning both punts and kickoffs. Brad Smith has also contributed on returns.

After picking 12 winners out of the 14 NFL games played in week 9, my record for the season now shows 69 correct and 34 wrong, which calculates to a .710 winning percentage. A lot of NFL head coaches would like to have a winning percentage like that. Here are my week 10 picks:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – the Colts, behind rookie QB Andrew Luck, are becoming a great story line in the NFL this year, as they continue to win for ailing head coach Chuck Pagano. Indy should win this game, since the Jags don’t have much of a home field advantage.

Buffalo at New England – this might as well be New England versus Orchard Park High School – it might make for a closer result. The Patriots win big at home.

Oakland at Baltimore – I have this sneaking hunch that the Raiders could pull an upset here, but don’t have the guts to pick it. The Ravens win a close one.

Denver at Carolina – it’s too tough to pick against Peyton Manning now – he’s obviously back and healthy. The Broncos win due to the play of their defense this week rather than relying on Manning’s arm.

New York Giants at Cincinnati – the Bengals just aren’t showing that they are capable of repeating their playoff run of 2011. I’ll go with the Giants to rebound from a tough loss to the Steelers last week and win on the road.

Tennessee at Miami – both of these teams are coming off of disappointing losses, and the Titans should be especially motivated after being embarrassed by the Bears last week. I like Miami’s defense to carry the day and help the Dolphins get a win.

Detroit at Minnesota – I think it’s safe to say that the loser of this game will likely drop out of playoff contention in the NFC North, so it’ll be a hard-fought divisonal rivalry game. The Lions are a little better team and will squeeze out a road win.

Atlanta at New Orleans – the Saints have some holes on defense, but they’re marching again on offense. Atlanta’s undefeated run ends here as New Orleans pulls the upset at home.

San Diego at Tampa Bay – I’m impressed with what the Buccaneers are doing this year, even though they almost blew a big lead at Oakland last week. However, I have to go with the Chargers at home.

New York Jets at Seattle – if the Jets are going to keep their playoff hopes alive, they have to rise to the occasion and win here. I don’t think they’re capable. I’m picking the Seahawks to win at home.

Dallas at Philadelphia – with Tony Romo and Michael Vick squaring off in this one, it should be a turnover fest. It’s always hard to figure how these divisional games will unfold, but I’ll take Dallas since they’ve been a bit more consistent overall this season.

St. Louis at San Francisco – this figures to be a solid 49er victory, although I expect Jeff Fisher to have his Rams ready to play after getting throttled by New England in London last week.

Houston at Chicago – this could be an honest-to-goodness Super Bowl preview. Both of these teams are solid, offensively and defensively. For this game, the Bears have the home field advantage, plus a significant edge on special teams. Chicago wins.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh – not much of a matchup in this one. The Chiefs will wilt early and that translates into an easy Steeler victory.

The best thing you can say about the Buffalo Bills’ performance on Sunday, against a far superior opponent in the Houston Texans, is that they didn’t get completely embarrassed, as they were earlier in the year against San Francisco and New England. The Texans won 21-9, but honestly, even though it was only a 12 point spread, you never really got the feeling that the Bills were capable of winning the game once their defense gave up the third touchdown of the day. The Bills’ offense played a decent game against a tough defense, and for really the first time this season weren’t able to score touchdowns. Against a Wade Phillips coordinated defense, that’s to be expected. The units he coaches have always been good at denying opponents touchdowns. (Remember during the Super Bowl era, when the Bills beat Denver and Wade’s defense, 10-7 in the AFC title game, with the touchdown coming on a Carlton Bailey interception?) This was a game in which the Bills’ defense needed to play out of their heads and keep the game close, and for the most part, they did. But at the end of the day, the Texans’ playmakers, RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson, both topped 100 yards, and QB Matt Schaub was efficient if not spectacular, and routinely did what he needed to do when the game was on the line. There were 2 plays during the game that were maddening and typical of what Dave Wannstedt’s defense has done all year. One was a third-and- two situation on one of the Texans’ TD drives. On the play, Bills’ rookie corner Stephon Gilmore lined up 10 yards off of Johnson, then backpedaled at the snap of the ball. The result, predictably, was an easy toss from Schaub to Johnson for the first down and more. I understand the concept of respecting Johnson’s ability, but why does a team battling to get a win completely concede the first down and make it easy for the opponent to keep a drive alive? The second was the Texans’ final score. On the play, a third down and goal, the Bills only rushed the front four, and, again predictably, Schaub had all day to wait for a receiver to break open, and threw a touchdown pass to seal it. This has been a problem for the defense all year, and is a major reason why you never get the feeling that any of the players will step up and make a play when it counts. A definition of good coaching is to put your players in positions to make plays. Most coaches, including  Wannstedt, are capable of doing this, but great coaches put their players in position to make plays when the game is on the line, on the 2 or 3 plays in each game that make the difference. They will put their players, on those plays, in a position to be aggressive, to dictate what the opposing team can do, somehow, some way. Wannstedt’s defense hasn’t done this all year and shows no sign that it will any time soon.

Next week’s game in New England should be ugly to watch. The Patriots have routinely gouged Buffalo’s defense, for at least a decade now, for 6 or 7 touchdowns per outing with Tom Brady probably breaking more of a sweat during the week’s practice sessions than he does against the Bills in the game. With Wannstedt too stubborn to change his passive approach, there’s no reason to believe it’ll be any different this time.

After a mediocre week of picking 7 winners and 7 losers, my season record now stands at 57 games correct and 32 wrong. Here are the week 9 picks:

Kansas City at San Diego – the Chargers have gained a reputation as massive underachievers over the years, but Kansas City has major problems, including a quarterback controversy. San Diego wins at home.

Buffalo at Houston – Texans’ star RB Arien Foster has to be salivating at the thought of facing the Bills’ porous run defense, ranked at the very bottom of the entire NFL. Houston should win this game handily.

Denver at Cincinnati – the Bengals are becoming desperate and should be a tough out at home, but Peyton Manning is starting to settle in with his new teammates in Denver, and the Broncos are beginning to look like an AFC power. Denver wins a close one.

Baltimore at Cleveland – the Ravens are still trying to plug injury holes on defense. Unfortunately, the Browns don’t have the firepower to take advantage. Although Cleveland rookie RB Trent Richardson should have a good game, the Ravens will win a low-scoring affair.

Arizona at Green Bay – after opening the season with 4 straight wins, the Cardinals have lost 4 in a row. The Packers will send them to their fifth on Sunday.

Miami at Indianapolis – both of these clubs are off to surprising starts, but Miami looks like they’re ready to contend for a playoff spot. The Dolphins pull out a hard fought win on the road.

Detroit at Jacksonville – the undermanned Jaguars are fighting hard under coach Mike Mularkey, but Detroit needs this game badly to try to stay alive in the NFC North. The Lions will win.

Chicago at Tennessee – I don’t see Titan RB Chris Johnson having much success against a tough Bear defense. After surviving a scare against Carolina last week, Chicago will be ready and will win here on the road.

Carolina at Washington – last year’s rookie phenom QB, Cam Newton, faces this year’s, Robert Griffin III. Opposing defenses are beginning to figure out how to stop Newton, while I expect RGIII to rebound from a poor showing against the Steelers. The Redskins get a win.

Tampa Bay at Oakland – a battle between 2 clubs with rookie head coaches that are fighting for respect. The Buccaneers have been a little more consistent, and I expect them to win this game.

Minnesota at Seattle – the Vikings are the type of opponent, despite their success so far this year, that is ripe to be overwhelmed by the Seahawks and their home crowd. Seattle wins at home.

Pittsburgh at New York Giants – although I feel the Giants are the better team, I also feel that this is the type of game they may sleepwalk through since they have a comfortable lead in their division. The Steelers win on the road.

Dallas at Atlanta – it’s taken almost half the season and a 7-0 record to finally convince me that the Falcons mean business this year. Atlanta throttles an up-and-down Cowboy team.

Philadelphia at New Orleans – the 2012 Disappointment Bowl. Both of these teams should be playoff contenders but are struggling badly. At this point, the Saints are a better bet to perform at a high level, even though their defense is horrible. New Orleans wins.

After a couple of so-so weeks predicting NFL games, week 7 turned out to be a good one, as I nearly pulled off perfection, picking 12 correct winners out of 13. The lone incorrect pick was the Buffalo Bills’ loss to Tennessee, which really should have been a win, but the Bills managed, once again, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. For the season, I have 50 correct picks and 25 wrong. Here are my predictions for week 8:

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – the Vikings are truly one of the season’s surprise teams, while Tampa  has played well but had some hard luck. I’m going to pick the Buccaneers to pull an upset here on the road.

Carolina at Chicago – the Panthers are reeling, while the Bears, one of the few NFL teams actually playing defense,  have played well on both sides of the ball this year with the addition of Brandon Marshall to their offense. The Bears will win at home.

San Diego at Cleveland – it’s tough to side with the unpredictable Chargers, but they have enough firepower to take down a struggling Browns’ club. San Diego wins a close one.

Seattle at Detroit – both of these teams have playoff aspirations, but have had ups and downs. I feel that the Lions need the win more, and will eek out a close win at home.

Jacksonville at Green Bay – the Packers have ironed out their early-season problems, and will win this game going away, putting away the Jaguars early at home.

Miami at New York Jets – rookie Dolphin QB Ryan Tannehill has played well, but will face a real test against a strong Jet defense. New York wins at home behind a punishing ground game.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – Michael Vick faces his former team. The Falcons have been a much more consistent club than Philly this year, but I’m going to pick the Eagles at home, again, because they need the win more.

Washington at Pittsburgh – the Steelers are still a team to be reckoned with in the AFC North, but they’re not the power they’ve been the last few decades. I’m picking Robert Griffin III and the ‘Skins to engineer an upset here.

New England at St. Louis – the Patriots haven’t beaten an NFC West team yet this year, suffering upset losses to the Cardinals and Seahawks. Their passing game, however, will be too much for the young Rams to handle. New England wins on the road to stay atop the AFC East standings.

Indianapolis at Tennessee – the Colts used to own the AFC South, but not this year. With Chris Johnson rounding into form and Matt Hasselbeck providing a steady hand at QB, I’ll pick the Titans to win.

Oakland at Kansas City – another edition of a great old AFL rivalry. Brady Quinn gets the start at QB for the Chiefs, and his teammates will rally around him and get a much-needed victory.

New York Giants at Dallas – without a doubt the Giants are the better team, but this appears to be the week that the more desperate team outplays the favorite. The Cowboys win at home.

New Orleans at Denver – at quarterback, it’s Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning. Unfortunately for Brees, the Saints’ defense has to play also. The Broncos win big at home.

San Francisco at Arizona – a month ago, this looked like it would be a great matchup, but the Cardinals are fading fast. San Francisco will win this one easily.

Sunday afternoon’s NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans was certainly an entertaining one, but in the end proved to be just another heartbreak for the Bills’ fan base, as they handed the Titans the ball and basically gifted them the winning touchdown, as Tennessee won, 35-34. For the second week in a row, the Bills’ coaching staff decided to gamble and pass the ball instead of trying to run out the clock at the end of the game, even though their running game is one of the club’s major positives so far this season. And for the second week in a row, the gamble resulted in a turnover. The Bills dodged a bullet in Arizona last week, but not this Sunday. When a coach decides to “go for it” and put the ball in the air in a game-deciding situation, it’s usually a sign that he has a dominating defense that he trusts if something should go wrong. Bills’ coach Chan Gailey apparently still doesn’t get it – that is, the fact that this current Bills’ defense, despite the big contracts and a number of high draft picks, is the worst in team history, and among the worst in the NFL in the 2012 season. They don’t put any pressure on opposing QBs, rarely blitz, can’t stop the run, can’t cover and/or are constantly blowing coverages and worst of all, can’t execute the most basic fundamental of defensive football – tackling. It would be one thing if Gailey decided to throw in those critical situations because his team had no running game, but this current Bills’ team has a pair of game-breaking backs in Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. That’s what makes it so maddening. Jackson averaged almost 8 yards a carry on Sunday, yet only had 9 carries. Spiller had almost 6 yards per attempt, but only carried 12 times.

Gailey seems to have total faith in Fitzpatrick, even though he turns the ball over more than any starting NFL quarterback, and trusts his defense, even though they’ve been pathetic. Yet he reigns in the most effective part of the team, the running game. The Bills now go into their bye week with the taste of an ugly loss in their mouths that they have to endure for 2 weeks. They’ll do the usual bye week evaluation and try to fix what’s gone wrong in the first 7 games. There’s been no evidence that the coaching staff has any idea how to stop Fitzpatrick’s turnover problems or plug up the porous defense over the seven games, if anything, it’s gotten worse, especially the defensive woes. Is there a Bills’ fan out there who actually believes that an extra week will do anything to provide any answers? Brace yourselves, Bills’ fans, for a couple of crushing, monumental, embarrassing, unwatchable road losses, against Houston and New England, coming out of the bye week.

I wound up week six with a mediocre record, picking 8 winners out of 14 games, pushing the overall mark for the season to 38 correct and 24 wrong. Here are my week 7 choices:

Seattle at San Francisco – this week’s Thursday night game is a big divisional clash, between 2 teams that have built stingy defenses over the last couple years. Coming off a stinging loss at home to the Giants, I have to go with the 49ers to rebound and win at home.

Tennessee at Buffalo – the Bills win in Arizona was ugly and probably lucky, but it’s just the sort of desperation win that can lift a team to bigger and better things. The Bills’ defense takes another small step forward, shuts down Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans’ offense and pulls out a home win.

Arizona at Minnesota – battle between 2 surprise teams of the 2012 season. Arizona has QB issues, Minnesota does not. Add RB Adrian Peterson to the mix, and the Vikings will win here to keep their “contender” instead of “pretender” status for another week.

Dallas at Carolina – both Tony Romo and Cam Newton can be inconsistent at quarterback, and my hunch is to take the Panthers at home. However, I’m going to go with Dallas grinding out a hard-fought road win.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – Tampa normally gives the Saints a hard time, but New Orleans is starting to put it together, and I’ll pick them to keep their season’s hopes alive by winning a big NFC South game on the road.

Green Bay at St. Louis – the Rams are much improved, but are facing a buzzsaw this week against a motivated Packer team that righted its’ ship. Green Bay wins.

Washington at New York Giants – these NFC East matchups are never easy to pick. The Giants should be an easy pick here, but their Jeckyl and Hyde performances make that tough to do. Still, I’ll pick the Giants to win, but not without a tough fight.

Baltimore at Houston – the Ravens are reeling after losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb to season-ending injuries. Their defense will need some time to adjust to life without 2 of their playmakers, so I’ll pick the Texans, motivated after suffering their first loss, to win at home.

Cleveland at Indianapolis – two rookie first round draft pick QBs do battle in this one. Andrew Luck has been impressive, and Brandon Weeden is coming on for the Browns. I’ll give Luck the advantage at home, and pick the Colts to win.

New York Jets at New England – the Patriots suffered a bitter defeat in Seattle, and their track record shows they’ll play well in the next game following a tough loss. Meanwhile, the Jets were impressive in beating the Colts last week, but their track record shows they’ll get full of themselves after a big win. New England wins at home.

Jacksonville at Oakland – this isn’t exactly the marquee matchup on the league schedule this week. Oakland gave the Falcons all they could handle last week, so I’ll take them to beat the Jaguars at home.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – on paper, the Bengals should win this game. The Steelers are struggling on defense this year, which is usually their strength. I still have to go with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steeler running game, however, to find a way to win here.

Detroit at Chicago – big NFC North game on Monday night. It should be a great game, and I’ll take the Bears based on the Soldier Field home crowd advantage.

When Marv Levy coached the Buffalo Bills in their 1990s Super Bowl years, he used to regularly say “it’s hard to win a game in the National Football League, regardless who the opponent is.” After two straight historically bad performances, the Buffalo Bills needed to find a way to not just win, but try to at least compete with a quality opponent. Their game in Arizona on Sunday, a thrilling 19-16 overtime win, was a real roller coaster ride. The team competed hard, made some big plays, had a couple impressive drives and for the first time in 3 weeks, played a competitive game on defense. There were some collossal mistakes also, like Fred Jackson fumbling on the first play of the game, coach Chan Gailey having Brad Smith throw out of the wildcat formation when the team had a chance to put the game away with their running game, and backup tight end Lee Smith taking a bonehead penalty to kill an important late-game drive. All in all, it was an ugly win, but at the same time it was one of those consummate “team” wins, where the club gets contributions from a lot of players on the roster, overcomes adversity in a hostile environment and squeaks out a victory, in this case maybe a season-saving one.

There were some bad moments for the Bills, for sure. Ryan Fitzpatrick was off-target, again, on some throws that could’ve resulted in big plays. There was Jackson’s fumble and Smith’s unnecessary roughness penalty, and some shanked punts by rookie Shawn Powell. On defense, there was the constant failure to contain Kevin Kolb, the Cardinals’ QB, who scrambled for big gains throughout the game. There also were some blown coverages, where the Bills left the NFL’s best receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, completely uncovered, including on a late-game drive that should’ve lost the game, as Cardinal kicker Jay Feely missed a short field goal (after booting a career-best 61 yarder to tie the game). But to their credit, the Bills didn’t come unhinged when faced with adversity, as they have in all their previous losses this year. They got an overall good effort on defense, with an effective pass rush that recorded 5 sacks and even scored points, on a safety when Chris Kelsay sacked Kolb in the end zone. Nick Barnett and Mario Williams each had 2 sacks, Kelvin Sheppard led the team in tackles and the whole defensive unit just looked a lot more active than they had in the second halves of the last 2 games. The most active player was safety Jairus Byrd, who had 2 big interceptions, including one in overtime that set up Rian Lindell’s winning field goal. It appeared that Byrd was finally being used in the role in which he’s most effective, making plays on the ball in the passing game, while also doing a great job in run support. He may be the Bills’ best all-around player on defense right now, with Kyle Williams not far behind.

There were good things on offense also. C.J. Spiller had a great game, scoring the first touchdown and ripping off a 33-yard run on the team’s other TD drive. Spiller is the closest thing this franchise has had to O.J. Simpson, with his combination of speed and elusiveness. That second touchdown drive was a thing of beauty, with the Bills’ top playmakers all making plays – Spiller with his long run, Stevie Johnson with an impressive run and catch, and Fred Jackson finishing the drive with a one yard touchdown run. The banged-up offensive line did a good job also. If Fitzpatrick ever gets his footwork problems resolved and starts throwing accurate passes consistently, this can be a dangerous unit. The Bills now need to build on the momentum of this win, and parlay it into another one against Tennessee at home next week. If they can accomplish that, they’ll head into their bye week with a winning record and playoff hopes still intact, despite losing 2 of the worst efforts in franchise history against New England and San Francisco. It’s still a real possibility, since the results of Sunday’s games left all 4 AFC East teams tied for the division lead with 3-3 records.