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The 2012 Buffalo Bills’ season can only be described as disappointing. I didn’t bother reviewing the last couple of games, as the review would have been just beating a dead horse. To their credit, they at least rose to the occasion and gave their loyal home fans a good show in the finale, beating an equally inept Jets team. In part one of this season review, I’ll look at management and coaching. After posting 6-10 records the last 2 years, one of these things has to be true – either Buddy Nix and the scouting staff he has assembled have been drafting terribly, or the coaching staff he brought in has done nothing to help in developing those drafted players.

The Monday after the season ended, owner Ralph Wilson, through his new surrogate Russ Brandon, made what they figure is the right choice of those 2 options when they relieved head coach Chan Gailey of his duties, along with Gailey’s entire staff, while keeping Nix on board as the general manager. It appears that somewhere along the line Nix will turn over those duties to Doug Whaley, his hand-picked successor, so Nix’s input into future decisions may be minimized. Nix has been mostly responsible for assembling the team’s talent through the college draft, while Whaley’s responsibilities have been in the pro scouting area. That means Nix should be accountable for passing on players like Rob Gronkowski (plus about 5 other players currently starting in New England), Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb and Golden Tate while picking players like Torell Troup, Aaron Williams and T.J. Graham. If pro scouting is Whaley’s area, then he gets the credit for bringing in gems like Scott Chandler, Kraig Urbik, Erik Pears and Kyle Moore. That tells me that the transition from Nix to Whaley can’t come soon enough. That being said, if Nix gets the blame for passing on some good players, he also gets the credit for bringing in C.J. Spiller, Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore, Chris Hairston and Alex Carrington, who have at least made some contributions.

As for the coaches, it’s a moot point to comment on them, since the entire staff has been replaced. Let’s face it, after 3 straight losing seasons and no progress at all to show for it, cleaning house was the right move. Chan Gailey was a nice enough guy, and his tenure had some positive points –  the team played hard for him, he got all he could out of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and he laid down the law when it was necessary (remember the benching of Stevie Johnson in the 2011 finale?). However, he turned out to be another in a long line of coaches who are outstanding coordinators but don’t have the skills to be an effective head coach. His post-game comments that “the team wasn’t ready to play and I’m responsible for that” got old, and it became obvious he just didn’t have the answers. His decision to promote Dave Wannstedt to defensive coordinator was a disaster, as the defense looked totally clueless most of the year. Wannstedt stubbornly refused to change his passive approach, rarely blitzing or doing anything creative to help his unit. The passive approach was especially maddening when you consider that the Bills faced a lot of young QBs this year. The new head coach, Doug Marrone, will now have to figure out whether some of the highly-drafted defensive players who’ve had little impact – Marcell Dareus, Gilmore, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Nigel Bradham – are just average players or have more to offer that just was never brought out by Gailey or Wannstedt.

Picking 9 winners and 7 losers last weekend added up to another week of mediocrity for Rayonsports.com in picking NFL games. The season record now stands at 114 correct picks and 65 incorrect. Here are my choices for week 15:

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – although the Eagles are out of playoff contention and rumors are flying that coach Andy Reid is finished, they will play Cincy tough. The Bengals need the game badly, however, and I’ll pick them to win.

Seattle vs. Buffalo (at Toronto)  – the Bills’ defense has been stopping the run well lately, and will be highly motivated to shut down former teammate Marshawn Lynch. Still, the Seahawks are peaking at just the right time, and rookie QB Russell Wilson will do just enough to give Seattle a close victory.

New York Giants at Atlanta – December is the time of year when the Giants come alive, and I expect them to pull out a hard-fought win over the Falcons on the road.

Denver at Baltimore – these clubs could meet in the playoffs, and at this point the Broncos are playing more consistent football. I’ll give them the nod and pick them to win over the Ravens here.

Green Bay at Chicago – pretty much the Bears’ last stand as far as playoff contention is concerned, and I don’t feel that they have enough left to overcome a solid Packer team. Green Bay wins.

Washington at Cleveland – the Redskins have been on an amazing run to stay in the NFC playoff hunt, but will hit a bump in the road here as the surging Browns pull the upset.

Indianapolis at Houston – the Texans were exposed on Monday night by New England and could be reeling going into this important AFC South matchup, but I see them regrouping and beating the Colts at home as Wade Phillips’ defense slows down young Andrew Luck.

Jacksonville at Miami – this is the Jaguars’ third straight game against an AFC East foe, and will result in their third straight loss as Miami wins big.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – these two NFC South teams have faltered lately, and neither has much chance of qualifying for the playoffs. To me, the Saints are just a better football team and will win this game at home.

Minnesota at St. Louis – at the start of the season, whoever figured this would be a game with playoff implications for both of these teams? I’ll go with the Rams to win at home.

Detroit at Arizona – both of these teams have been big disappointments this season, but the Lions are still competitive, while the Cardinals are a total train wreck. Detroit wins on the road.

Carolina at San Diego – if the Chargers can knock off Pittsburgh on the road, they can surely beat the Panthers at home. Then again, they ARE the Chargers. This will be a high-scoring game, and I’ll pick San Diego to win.

Pittsburgh at Dallas – the Cowboys have impressed me enough with their staying power in the playoff race that I’ll go with them to defeat the Steelers at home in a game both teams need badly.

Kansas City at Oakland – it’s really a shame how far these two former AFL rivals have fallen. The game means nothing, and picking a winner is tough, but I’ll go with the Raiders to win at home even though I have a feeling they’ve packed it in for the year.

San Francisco at New England – this is truly a possible Super Bowl preview, and a classic battle between the Niners’ defense and Patriots’ potent offense. The fact is that New England has vastly improved on defense also, enough so that they’ll knock off Jim Harbaugh’s squad at home.

New York Jets at Tennessee – it’s the Monday night spotlight so these 2 underachieving clubs will be trying to put out their best effort. The Jets just haven’t been able to mount much of an attack this year, so I’ll pick the Titans to win.

Buffalo Bills’ coach Chan Gailey hit the nail on the head earlier this season when he said the problem with his team was that they couldn’t “finish”. It’s great that the coach had a handle on what his team needed to do to get over the hump, but unfortunately, it’s also his job to figure out HOW to get them over that hump. He and his staff have failed miserably in trying to accomplish that, and Sunday’s crushing 15-12 loss to the St. Louis Rams turned out to be another case of same stuff, different day for long-suffering Bills’ fans. So far this year, the Bills have blown the lead in a shootout game, losing to an inferior Tennessee Titan team 35-34 by allowing a late winning TD drive, and lost another shootout game at New England in which they continuously fought back and put themselves in a position to win at the end, only to have Ryan Fitzpatrick throw a maddening red zone interception to kill the comeback. On Sunday, they found a new way to lose, as their improving defense played a terrific game, playing a hard-fought low-scoring game against the Rams in which they led up until the last few minutes, only to have that defense revert to early-season form and allow an 87 yard touchdown drive to give the Rams the win. Critics will say that once again, Gailey under-utilized C.J. Spiller, as the dynamic back only got 7 carries for 37 yards. That certainly isn’t enough, but at the same time the Ram defense did bottle up the run for the most part, and the Bills did have success throwing. The bottom line is that whatever scheme or attack or defensive alignment that the team uses, they have to find players who execute when it counts – who make plays when the game is on the line and who have a “refuse to lose” attitude. I believe that the current roster already has some of those type of players, but they are being hamstrung by the coaching staff. For instance, the Bills’ defense did a great job of keeping the pressure on Ram QB Sam Bradford for most of the game, then went into a soft zone on the last drive, figuring, I suppose, that Bradford wouldn’t be capable of completing the long drive, especially since his team needed a touchdown to win. It’s actually a sound philosophy that a lot of teams would play the same way. It’s even more sound when the team reaches the red zone – rushing three and flooding the end zone with coverage people to ensure that the opponent doesn’t score. So why have the Bills allowed easy touchdown completions on two separate occasions in that scenario this year? Because this team does not know how to win, and the current coaching staff has shown no sign of being capable of leading them to the point where they will learn how to win.

So now it’s on to three meaningless games to play out the season. It’s imperative that the coaches give some of the young players an opportunity to show what they can do. Among other things, that means giving Marcus Easley a chance to make some plays at receiver and on special teams, and moving Da’Norris Searcy into the starting lineup at safety to build on the flashes of good play he’s shown this year. The fans certainly don’t need to see any more of Ruvell Martin, and they already have ample evidence that George Wilson, a former wide receiver, can’t catch the ball.

I seem to have hit a wall of mediocrity in my weekly NFL predictions, as I only got half of them right last week, picking 8 winners out of the 16 games played. My winning percentage for the season has taken a hit in the last couple of weeks, with the season tally now at 105 correct picks and 58 incorrect. Here are the week 14 choices:

Denver at Oakland – these 2 old AFL rivals are going in opposite directions this season. Both made drastic offseason changes, the Broncos acquiring Peyton Manning and the Raiders cleaning out their front office and coaching staff and heading in a new direction. The Broncos have hit a home run, while the “change of direction” in Oakland looks like it will mire this once proud franchise in more years of mediocrity. The Broncos win this one.

St. Louis at Buffalo – both of these teams have been fighting hard to gain some respect around the league, and both have been making small strides to achieve that lately. The Rams should be flying high after upsetting the 49ers in overtime last week, but I’ll pick the Bills to pull out a close one at home.

Atlanta at Carolina – the Falcons are sitting pretty in the NFC playoff race after all but burying division rival New Orleans last week, and this could be a perfect spot for them to let down. I expect that they will, but still have enough talent to take down the Panthers in the end.

Dallas at Cincinnati – the loser of this NFC-AFC battle will be close to kissing their playoff hopes goodbye. Because of the stakes involved, I expect a close, low-scoring defensive game, with the home-field Bengals coming out on top.

Kansas City at Cleveland – kudos to the Chiefs for fighting through the murder/suicide tragedy they endured last week and winning. This week, they go into Cleveland to take on the team that fired their coach, Romeo Crennel. That should keep the Chiefs motivated, but I have a feeling they’ll wind up emotionally drained and the Browns will win.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – the Colts have put themselves in an excellent position to secure a playoff spot this year, amazing when considering they won only one game last year and saw a lot of their players, most notably Manning, leave the team. They won’t blow this opportunity to further their cause, especially at home. The Colts win.

New York Jets at Jacksonville – with a full-blown 3-player quarterback controversy on his hands, Rex Ryan can’t possibly keep the fragile Jets together. The Jaguars win.

Chicago at Minnesota – this is another matchup in which the loser can kiss the playoffs goodbye. I believe the Bears are the better team and will fight through a loud road environment and win.

San Diego at Pittsburgh – the Chargers don’t have what it takes mentally to compete in a game the Steelers need to keep alive in the playoff race. This should be one more nail in Norv Turner’s coaching coffin as the Steelers win easily.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Andy Reid is getting as much as possible out of his injury-depleted roster, but it won’t be enough to win at Tampa. The Bucs win.

Baltimore at Washington – the Ravens took a hit by losing to the Steelers last week, and will take another this week as the young Redskins, who suddenly believe they have a shot at crashing the post-season party, will knock them off at home.

Miami at San Francisco –  the Niners right the ship, and rebound from an upset loss to the Rams last week by beating up on a Dolphin team that has slowly slid out of playoff contention.

New Orleans at New York Giants – the Saints made a game attempt to revive their season, but they’ve fallen back the last couple of weeks, and in this matchup, the Giants, who’ve watched their division lead slowly erode, will put on their serious game faces and win in front of the home crowd.

Arizona at Seattle – coach Pete Carroll’s Seahawks are starting to put some distance between themselves and some other NFC wildcard contenders. They’ll beat the punchless Cardinals at home easily.

Detroit at Green Bay – the Lions’ defense has been flawed lately, and I don’t expect them to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packer attack. Green Bay wins at Lambeau.

Houston at New England – this is a possible AFC playoff preview. On paper and record-wise, the Texans are the better team, but the Pats have more experience on the Monday night stage and will ride a typical surgical Tom Brady performance to a big win.

For the Buffalo Bills, Sunday’s contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars shaped up to be a feast-or-famine situation. It was a contest at home against a perceived inferior opponent, so a win was to be expected. A loss, especially with former Bills’ coach Mike Mularkey at the helm of the Jaguars, would have been disastrous as far as the team’s fan base was concerned. That loss was really a possibility, since the Jags have been steadily improving and were capable of winning for 2 reasons – new Jags’ QB Chad Henne was showing some positive results, and the Bills have shown that they can compete with most teams, but also were capable of losing to anybody.

The Bills, for one of the few times this season, met expectations and put together a solid all-around effort to beat Jacksonville, 34-18. The game was even more one-sided than the final score indicates, as a muffed punt by Justin Rogers gifted a late TD to the Jaguars. Rogers’ muff could be given a pass since he was returning punts in place of the injured Leodis McKelvin, but it was still a major mistake, and the third week in a row that special teams coach Bruce DeHaven’s units have coughed up 7 points. For the first time this season, and possibly only due to the weather conditions, Bills’ coach Chan Gailey featured the running game, which is the strength of the team. Fred Jackson rushed for 109 yards on 25 carries, and C.J. Spiller added 77 on 14 carries, including an electrifying 44 yard touchdown run. For most of this season, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the focal point of Gailey’s offense, running a spread offense and mostly relying on Fitz’s arm. Fitzpatrick hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in that role, but on Sunday, playing a supportive role in which he completed only 9 passes, he still made a major contribution, throwing a pair of TD passes and running a QB sneak for another score. It was the type of attack most Bills’ followers envisioned for this season, and I suppose it’s better late than never. Still, the Bills stand at 5-7 for the year, and you have to wonder how many more wins the team could’ve had if they’d used a ball-control rushing attack approach earlier.

The Bills’ defense continued their ongoing improvement, holding the Jags to 50 yards rushing, 236 total yards and a 10% conversion rate on third down. They recorded 4 sacks, got an interception and forced 2 fumbles (although the Jaguars recovered one of them). The one word that comes to mind to describe the team’s defense now that didn’t fit early in the season is – “active”. There’s even a positive to be found in the one flaw the defense showed on Sunday, that being the numerous interference, illegal contact and defensive holding penalties. That positive is that at least now the Bills’ DBs are in close coverage on receivers on most plays, and not standing around in zones while receivers run wide open around them, which was the case earlier in the year. The Bills meet NFC West opponents at home the next 2 weeks, facing the St. Louis Rams next Sunday and traveling to their second “home” in Toronto to take on Seattle the following week. With Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Indianapolis all winning on Sunday, the slim hopes the team had for the playoffs are all but gone, but a .500 season is still within reach.

Week 12 was pretty much a disaster, as I picked only 7 winners out of the 16 games played. The overall record for the season is now 97 correct picks and 50 incorrect. Here are the week 13 choices:

New Orleans at Atlanta – the Saints completely revived their season in recent weeks and have climbed back into the playoff hunt, but took a major blow in losing to the 49ers last week. They need this win much more than the Falcons do, so I’ll take them to win on the road and complete a season sweep of their NFC South rivals.

Jacksonville at Buffalo – the Bills’ playoff hopes were all but extinguished last week, and now they are in a 2-week no-win situation with games against the Jaguars and Rams. If they lose, it’ll be disastrous, if they win, well, they are games they are expected to win. Although they are inconsistent and capable of losing to anybody, they have enough left in the tank to defeat their former coach, Mike Mularkey, in this game.

Seattle at Chicago – two teams fighting for NFC playoff positions. The Bears usually have a great home field advantage, while Seattle struggles on the road. With Jay Cutler back, I’ll pick the Bears.

Indianapolis at Detroit – Indy is one of the season’s big surprises, but the Lions are overdue for a win, and they’ll get one here after losing a heartbreaker on Thanksgiving.

Minnesota at Green Bay – the Vikings are going through a real gauntlet in their schedule, and after a fast start have been slowly coming back down to earth. The Packers will continue that grounding with a big win at home.

Carolina at Kansas City – there won’t be many fans at this game, and it figures to be a flat contest between 2 teams going nowhere. Carolina wins its’ second straight.

New England at Miami – the Dolphins always play New England tough, but the Pats have been on a roll in all 3 phases of the game recently. They’ll stay on that roll with a win on the road.

Arizona at New York Jets – the Jets may be the NFL’s most disappointing team this year, but they’re not so bad that they can’t beat a weak Cardinal team at home. New York wins.

San Francisco at St. Louis – since this a division matchup, it’ll probably stay close, but I expect the 49ers to pull it out in the end.

Houston at Tennessee – the Texans are the class of the AFC South this year, and they’ll continue their terrific 2012 season with another division win.

Tampa Bay at Denver – the Bucs will put up a good fight, but Denver is a legitimate title contender this year with Peyton Manning at the helm. The Broncos win a close one.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – the Steelers just can’t compete with Baltimore without Ben Roethlisberger, and I expect the Ravens to win easily and continue their stranglehold on the AFC North division.

Cleveland at Oakland – the Raiders are in disarray, and I expect a game Browns’ team to battle hard and win a close one on the road.

Cincinnati at San Diego – the Chargers are just too good to continue playing as bad as they have. I’ll pick them to regroup at home and upset the Bengals, putting a crimp in Cincy’s playoff hopes.

Philadelphia at Dallas – another battle of disappointing teams, but the Cowboys are still playing hard while the situation in Philly has come totally unraveled. Dallas wins.

New York Giants at Washington – it’s the time of year when the Giants start to get serious. Although they’ll face a tough test, New York squeezes out a division win.

Entering Sunday’s matchup between the Bills and Indianapolis Colts, there was still a sliver of hope that Buffalo, with the toughest portion of their schedule behind them, could build off the momentum of their prime time win over Miami last week and vault themselves back into the playoff race with a win. The Bills, however, were their usual selves, doing just enough in all 3 phases of the game to lose, 20-13. The Bills haven’t been terrible this season, and aren’t the most disappointing team in the league. Just ask the fans in Kansas City, or Jacksonville. They certainly haven’t been as disappointing as Detroit or San Diego, teams that have quality players throughout their roster and possess what everybody says a team needs to be a winner – “franchise” quarterbacks. However, the Bills may be a longer distance away from being a winning team than any of those others. As in a lot of their losses this year, there were positives – C.J. Spiller rushed for over 100 yards, Stevie Johnson had his first 100 yard receiving game of the year, Mario Williams had another good game – recording 3 sacks, Marcell Dareus was a factor, and Stephon Gilmore, right up until the pass interference call that ended any chance Buffalo had to win, played well. Incidentally, there was a play in a later game, between the 49ers and Saints, that could have passed for an instant replay of the foul on Gilmore, where the defensive back used the same exact technique, and there was no penalty. Of course, as I said in my review of a recent game against New England, the Bills won’t get the benefit of any official’s calls until they change the perception that they are an irrelevant, losing team.

Spiller, as he has been all year, was a sparkplug throughout the game, and tried his hardest to breathe life into his team. However, also as usual, he didn’t get the ball enough. He had only 14 carries, as coach Chan Gailey, once again, ran the offense as if the team needed to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s arm rather than their lethal running game. The Bills passed 33 times and attempted to throw another 3 times on plays in which Fitzpatrick scrambled. Spiller and Fred Jackson had 20 carries between them, meaning that the Bills preferred the pass to the run almost 2-to-1. The Bills trailed the whole game, but it’s not as if the score was ever so far out of hand that it warranted abandoning the run. As it’s been all season, it was just a matter of the type of attack Gailey prefers. Don’t the best head coaches tailor their offense to feature their best players and put the team in the best position to win games?

The best description I can come up with to describe Fitzpatrick’s performance is – sluggish. He looked like a guy who ate too much turkey on Thanksgiving and was still feeling the effects of the tryptophan. He had a couple of decent throws – the 63 yard completion to Johnson comes to mind – but also missed on too many passes to open receivers. His accuracy has been an issue all year, and unfortunately, the “experts” who’ve been saying all along that he’s not the future QB of this team, but just a career backup, look to be correct at this point. Bruce DeHaven’s special teams unit gave up another kick return touchdown, another difference-maker in the game, and just another example of how this team finds ways to do just enough to lose. Another sign of that is, despite playing a decent game, the defense was just bad enough on third down (they rank dead last in the NFL in that category) to assure a win for the Colts.

The Bills lost again, and that’s something fans are surely used to after 12 consecutive years of missing the playoffs, but what really made the day depressing was the news of the passing of Ernie Warlick, a tight end and key member of the team’s 1964 and ’65 AFL championship clubs. He was a class act and in the 1965 AFL title game against heavily-favored San Diego, with the Bills missing key receivers due to injury, he was a main target of QB Jack Kemp and played a huge part in the Bills winning that title. It was an example of a role player rising to the occasion to do whatever it took to win, something that’s sadly lacking on the current version of the team.

I had an extremely successful week picking NFL games in week 11, nailing 13 winners out of the 14 games played, to push the overall season record to 90 games correct and 41 wrong. This week’s games feature 3 contests on Thanksgiving, including the traditional games played in Detroit and Dallas, and an interesting AFC East matchup. Here are my week 12 choices:

Houston at Detroit – this game should be an easy pick, with the high-flying Texans meeting the disappointing Lions. However, the Lions are a better team than their record indicates, and this traditional game is their Super Bowl, so I’ll take Detroit to pull the upset.

Washington at Dallas – this game, between 2 bitter NFC East rivals, should be close, and I’ll go with the Cowboys at home. They snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Browns in overtime last week, and I feel they’ll be at their best in this one.

New England at New York Jets – the Jets need this game more, and always play the Pats tough, plus New England will be without Rob Gronkowski, who got hurt late in last week’s game while Bill Bellichick typically ran up the score against the Colts. All that being said, I’ll pick the Patriots to win a close one.

Buffalo at Indianapolis – is Buffalo’s defense finally finding itself? This will be a big test for them, as rookie Andrew Luck tries to rebound from a shellacking by New England. Luck will play well, but the Bills will finally put a full effort together and get a much-needed win.

Minnesota at Chicago – the Bears can’t afford to lose ground in the competitive NFC North, and their defense will make sure they don’t. Chicago wins at home.

Oakland at Cincinnati – Carson Palmer’s return to Cinci won’t be memorable for him. The Bengals are starting to get a sniff of the playoffs, and they’ll win big at home.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – the Steelers are reeling, and their defense is playing hard but doesn’t seem to have the horses this season. Cleveland pulls the upset at home.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – the Jaguars played a great game behind Chad Henne last week in losing an overtime heartbreaker to Houston, but I think the Titans will win here with a solid all-around effort.

Denver at Kansas City – the hard-luck Chiefs are in a bad downward spiral that isn’t going to end soon. The Broncos continue their surge to the playoffs with a big win.

Seattle at Miami – I see this as a low-scoring defensive battle, with the Seahawks winning the turnover battle and squeaking out the win.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – I’m tempted to pick the Bucs here, but Atlanta is just too solid of a club this year. The Falcons win a close game on the road.

Baltimore at San Diego – the Norv Turner firing line watch begins, as the Ravens solidify their hold on the AFC North with a one-sided win.

St. Louis at Arizona – neither team has playoff hopes, but both are well coached. The Cardinals are just a bit better defensively, so I’ll pick them to break their long losing streak and get a win.

San Francisco at New Orleans – if defense beats offense, then the 49ers should win this game, but I’m picking the Saints to stay on a roll and win a hard fought battle.

Green Bay at New York Giants – a prime time Sunday night game between legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Aaron Rodgers outduels Eli Manning and the Packers win.

Carolina at Philadelphia – like Romeo Crennel in Kansas City and San Diego’s Turner, Andy Reid is coaching for his job in Philly. Although I expect Cam Newton to play well in this Monday night clash, his Panthers will fall to the Eagles.

The formula for winning games for the Buffalo Bills proved itself again in their prime time AFC East battle with Miami on Thursday night. That formula is – when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t turn the ball over, they win. Fitzpatrick has certainly had better games statistically this season, but against the Dolphins he protected the ball, and did just enough to keep the Bills from handing another game over to their opponent. The offensive effort looked a lot like the Bills’ game against Houston a couple weeks ago, with drives stalling and the team settling for Rian Lindell field goals. C.J. Spiller ran and caught the ball for 130 combined yards and sparked the Bills’ offense all night with Fred Jackson out. Fitzpatrick only threw for 160 yards, but kept drives alive with timely passes to Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler, and helped the defense out by not giving the ball away.

The difference this time was that the Bills’ defense played possibly its’ best game of the season, holding the Fish to 184 total yards of offense, including only 60 on the ground, and recording 3 sacks against rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. The sacks came from Mario Williams, who has come on since his wrist surgery, Shawne Merriman and Kyle Moore, who is making a case to stay in the lineup when Mark Anderson and Chris Kelsay return from injuries. The biggest accomplishment for the defense was that there weren’t any breakdowns resulting in big plays in either the passing or running game. The secondary covered receivers well for the most part, and got 2 big interceptions, from Jairus Byrd and Bryan Scott, to seal the win. It was a game the Bills won because they finally “finished”, as coach Chan Gailey has said.

The special teams had a Jeckyl and Hyde night, providing the team’s only touchdown on Leodis McKelvin’s 79 yard punt return, but allowing Miami’s Marcus Thigpen to return a kickoff for a score. Rookie punter Shawn Powell, however, tilted the scale to the positive side for the bomb squads by placing a punt out of bounds at the one yard line at a critical point of the game. The Bills face another rookie signal caller in their next game, in 10 days, when their improving defense tests the Colts’ Andrew Luck. Unlike Tannehill, Luck isn’t playing like a rookie, so the unit will have to be ready for another tough contest, this time in front of a hostile crowd in Indianapolis.

For week 10 in picking NFL games, I wound up with 8 winners and 6 losers. I counted the tie game between the Rams and 49ers as a loss, figuring that since the game didn’t have a winner, I didn’t pick a winner. I now have picked 77 winners, against 40 losers, for the year. Here are my week 11 choices:

Miami at Buffalo – the Dolphins, like every other AFC East team, have dominated the Bills recently, and will be anxious to redeem themselves after getting thrashed by Tennessee on Sunday. Still, I’ll pick the Bills to take some positive vibes from their close loss to New England and win a division game at home.

Arizona at Atlanta – the Cardinals have been fading for awhile, and they now have to face a Falcon team hurting from its’ first loss of the year. Atlanta wins easily.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – the Buccaneers are a solid team this year, and I’ll pick them to control Cam Newton enough to win a big division game.

Cleveland at Dallas – the Browns have been battling hard all year, but this should be a relatively easy Cowboy win at home, as Dallas climbs back into the playoff race.

Green Bay at Detroit – this has been a disappointing year for the Lions and their disappointment will continue as the Packers win this game.

Jacksonville at Houston – strange things can happen in division games, but the Texans’ defense so far outclasses the weak Jaguar offensive attack that Houston should win this game handily.

Cincinnati at Kansas City – the Chief defense should keep this game close, but the Bengals will scratch out a win on the road, with the Andy Dalton to A.J. Green passing combination playing a key role.

New York Jets at St. Louis – the Jets are reeling, and their Sanchez/Tebow QB controversy isn’t going away any time soon. The young Rams are good enough to beat them, and will at home in a game that may not even be close.

Philadelphia at Washington – neither of these teams has distinguished itself lately, but the Redskins seem to be at least moving forward. Washington wins at home.

New Orleans at Oakland – the Saints, despite their standing of having the overall worst defense in the NFL, are getting a sniff of thinking they have a chance to sneak into the playoff race after a terrible start. They’ll handle a Raider team that has looked disorganized.

San Diego at Denver – the Chargers have the talent to dominate the AFC West, but instead they continue to shoot themselves in the foot and lose games they should win. The Broncos win at home.

Indianapolis at New England – this should be an interesting matchup as Colt rookie QB Andrew Luck faces a Patriot pass defense that has some holes. My guess is that Bill Bellichick will have some surprises prepared for Luck, and New England will win.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – it looks like Ben Roethlisberger won’t play in this game, so I’ll take the Ravens to win a close one.

Chicago at San Francisco – both of these team’s QBs, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith, have concussion issues, but whether either ot both play won’t mean much to the outcome. I’ll take the 49ers at home.