rayonsports.com

I picked 3 winners out of 4 in last weekend’s divisional round playoff games, with the only incorrect pick being the Giants’ big upset in Green Bay. Here are my choices for the upcoming conference title games:

New York Giants at San Francisco – it’s hard to pick against the Giants, as they are on a roll eerily similar to the one they rode to the title in 2007. The Giants have something going for them that any team needs to have to win in the modern day NFL, the ability to pressure the opposing quarterback with just their front four. They have something that the New Orleans Saints, who had record-breaking QB Drew Brees, didn’t have, that is a defense just as physical as the 49ers defense. They also have a QB with postseason experience in Eli Manning, who has the chance to double the Super Bowl ring total of older brother Peyton this year. The home field advantage will allow San Francisco to stay in the game, but I see the Giants winning in the end, with Eli supplying the fourth quarter heroics to get it done.

Baltimore at New England – if this game boils down to a Tom Brady vs. Joe Flacco shootout, then the Patriots should win easily. However, the playing field between the 2 QBs is leveled by the competence of the defenses each has to face. Brady has the tough task of trying to score against a physical Ravens’ team that should make it a long day for them. Led by veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, Baltimore, like last year’s New York Jets, has the defense to slow down the Pat attack, and the running game, led by Ray Rice, to control the ball and keep Brady off the field. Flacco wasn’t impressive last week in his team’s win over Houston, but he faces a much weaker D this week. New England becomes the final top team that relies on offense to falter, following New Orleans and Green Bay, and loses to the Ravens at home.

I  managed to pick 3 of the 4 wild card games correctly last weekend. Of course, no one saw Denver’s upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers coming. Here are my divisional round picks:

New Orleans at San Francisco – the Saints’ offense has looked mostly unstoppable recently, while the 49ers win with a patient offense and good defense. If defense really wins championships, then the Niners should win this game. I’ll pick them to pull the upset.

Denver at New England – the Patriots have been beaten at home in their opening playoff game the last 2 years, and it says here they’ll be on a mission to correct that against the Broncos. The Patriots win handily.

Houston at Baltimore – this should be a defensive struggle, and I just can’t see the Texans’ third-string QB having any success against the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore wins a low scoring game.

New York Giants at Green Bay – the Giants have been peaking at the right time, and the Packers, during their bye week, had the tragedy of the son of their offensive coordinator drowning. I still believe Green Bay will find enough focus to win at home, although it will be a rough and tumble game and won’t be easy.

This fourth and final installment of the 2011 Buffalo Bills’ season review is really a look forward, exploring paths the team could possibly take to improve their roster next season. I wasn’t planning on discussing coaching staff additions in this review, but recently 2 Buffalo offensive assistants – QB coach George Cortez and WR coach Stan Hixon – left the team, Cortez taking a head coaching job in the CFL and Hixon moving to the revamped Penn State staff. In Indianapolis, GM Bill Polian and his son Chris were relieved of their duties, leaving coach Jim Caldwell and his staff in limbo until a new GM decides their fate. That means the Colts’ former QB coach and current WR coach, Frank Reich, is also in limbo. It isn’t often that a team can excite its’ fan base through an assistant coach hiring, but that would be the case if the team hired Reich. He was basically a coach on the sidelines when he played here, and I remember a story involving Reich and Peyton Manning, where the pair spent the off-season breaking down all of Peyton’s interceptions from the previous season, which were uncharacteristically high that year, in an effort to cut down on them the next year. That sounds like just the sort of medicine Ryan Fitzpatrick could use. As for the WR coach opening, I wonder what James Lofton is up to these days? He has held that position for both the Chargers and Raiders, and at the very least might be able to teach Stevie Johnson a thing or two about being a professional.

As for improving the roster, here’s hoping the Bills are aggressive in pursuing not only just any free agents, but the right type of free agents, players who fit with the current roster. Also, it would be a great help if the Bills have a draft similar to 2011, which appears to have been a good one. With that in mind, the following are my thoughts on how the Bills can improve in the off-season.

The positions on the team that need to be addressed, in no particular order, are as follows: on offense – wide receiver, tackle, and some competition at back-up quarterback. On defense, there is a definite need for some pass rushers, either at defensive end or outside linebacker, or both, and a cornerback. Here are the options at those positions that may be available for the Bills to pursue:

Wide Receiver

The Bills have the 10th pick in the first round of the college draft, and if Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon somehow falls to that spot, the Bills MUST take him, despite their need to improve the defense. He is as much of a can’t-miss pro prospect as projected # 1 pick Andrew Luck. Blackmon is a stud who racks up big yardage after the catch, a major plus in today’s NFL, where secondary players all suffer from the “Deion Sanders Syndrome”, meaning they all play with Prime Time’s attitude that it isn’t their job to tackle, and game film is loaded with these players purposely taking bad angles and avoiding contact at all costs. He had an outstanding Bowl game, and is climbing the draft boards to the point where he will probably be long gone by the time the Bills pick. If the Bills go defense with their top pick, a big receiver who could be available to them in round 2 is Nick Toon from Wisconsin. He is projected as a second round talent, and has good bloodlines. His father is former New York Jet wideout Al Toon. In free agency, the player who stands out as a guy who would be a perfect fit in Buffalo is New Orleans WR Marques Colston. He has been a prime target for Drew Brees with the Saints, and that team will be shelling out big bucks for Brees, who is also a free agent, as is another of his prime targets, Robert Meachem. There could be a scenario where the Saints can’t afford to sign all 3 of them, and the right offer could entice Colston. He is a former 7th round draft pick who battled and clawed his way to Pro Bowl status. In other words, he is the perfect Buffalo Bill.

Offensive Tackle

The top offensive tackle in the draft is USC’s Matt Khalil, and he’ll be long gone by the time Buffalo picks. Two tackles who could be available at # 10 and would be good value picks are Riley Reiff of Iowa  and Jonathan Martin of Stanford, who blocked for Luck. As for free agents, there aren’t any tackles on the market worth whatever price would have to be paid. If the Bills decided to go this route, the best option might be to hang on to their own and re-sign Demetrius Bell.

Quarterback

If Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III fell to the Bills at the tenth spot in the draft, there would be fans clamoring to take him, but if it were my choice, I’d trade the pick at that point to the highest bidder and stock up on extra picks to strengthen other positions. What the Bills need is a young QB to learn behind Fitzpatrick and eventually challenge Tyler Thigpen for the #2 spot. That means looking for a good, young one in the middle rounds of the draft would be a good option, since there are none on the free agent market who would be an upgrade over Thigpen. Green Bay’s backup, Matt Flynn, will be a hot commodity on the market but he’ll be looking to sign with a team where he’ll be the starter. The Bills will have an extra fourth round draft pick, from the Lee Evans trade, so that might be a good spot for them to go after a QB. A couple of potential picks there would be Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden, who was Blackmon’s QB, and San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley. Both have good size at 6’4/215 lbs. and would be ideal development projects behind Fitzpatrick.

Defensive End/Outside Linebacker

The Bills really need to find some pass rushers, and there will be some good ones available. On the free agent market, the Colts’ Robert Mathis would be a great addition. He has played in the shadow of Dwight Freeney on the Colts’ line but is a great player in his own right, and would immediately improve the Bills’ defense. It’s likely Mathis will move on, since the Colts will be cash-strapped having to sign Peyton Manning, plus pony up top draft pick money for Andrew Luck. The Bills don’t have a history of making big splashes in free agency, so if they somehow signed Colston or Mathis, it would be big news. One player who could be a sleeper is Dallas outside linebacker Anthony Spencer. He’s been a bit of a disappointment so far and may not be able to command big money, but has a lot of potential if he’s in the right system. Most of the other LBs on the market are inside backers, which the Bills don’t really need. The best 2 outside rush backers in the draft are Courtney Upshaw of national champion Alabama, and USC’s Nick Perry. They both could be available when the Bills pick tenth, and both would be good picks there. Upshaw was a teammate of Marcell Dareus in college so he would seem to fit, but in my opinion Perry is the better player. The top defensve end in the draft appears to be junior Quinton Coples of North Carolina, who is entering the draft early. A lot of draft experts have the Bills picking Coples with that 10th pick, and the Bills have been partial to UNC players, with Da’Norris Searcy and Johnny White drafted from there in 2011.

Cornerback

The best corner available in the draft is clearly Morris Claiborne of LSU, and if he falls to the tenth spot, again, he would be a great choice by the Bills. He could be plugged in opposite Aaron Williams as a starting CB and the team would be set for a decade with a pair of great cover corners who also play a good physical game against the run, something almost no NFL team possesses today. On the free agent market, there just aren’t any standout players who would be worth the money the team would have to pay to get them. Secondary play in the NFL today is so poor that any players whose contracts run out without their team trying to lock them up are most likely guys who aren’t going to upgrade your roster anyway.

This segment of the Buffalo Bills’ season review for 2011 deals with the defensive side of the ball. The team itself made a major statement regarding the defense when they fired coordinator George Edwards following the final game and replaced him with Dave Wannstedt. Whether the move was fair or not, the numbers warranted it. Statistically, the defense was worse in almost every category in 2011 than they were the previous year, and the players looked dazed and confused playing the scheme they were using. You have to believe Wannstedt will be able to develop some of the younger players, and here is a position-by-position look at the players he’ll have to work with on the current roster:

Defensive Linemen

Marcell Dareus – he had a decent rookie season, getting better as the year went on. He was forced to play a couple of different positions due to injuries, and was a productive player for the most part, even leading the team in sacks. He will definitely be an anchor of the team’s D-line for years to come.

Kyle Williams – he is a Pro Bowl caliber player and the defense really took a hit when he went down. The defense automatically gets better when he’s back next year, and his return combined with a more experienced Dareus will solidify the interior line.

Torell Troup – he was a second round draft pick and hasn’t played like one so far. Supposedly the coaches liked what they saw from him in training camp, but a nagging back injury hindered his play and he eventually wound up on injured reserve. Next season will be his third with the team and should be a make-or-break year.

Dwan Edwards – a starting defensive end, he’s a servicable player but not much of a difference-maker. This should be a spot that the team looks to upgrade if the opportunity presents itself in either free agency or the draft.

Alex Carrington – the NFL is a copy-cat league, and a current trend is taking players who are natural defensive linemen and moving them to linebacker. The Bills did this with at least 3 players, including Carrington, and I feel it’s hindered his development. He’s shown some pass rush ability in his 2 years on the team, but he hasn’t really progressed. When injuries put him in the starting lineup, back at defensive end, toward the end of the season, I thought he was starting to settle in and play decent football.

Spencer Johnson – another player who has always been an effective piece of the D-line rotation who was moved to LB. He made a big play in the Denver game, but in my mind he is not a linebacker, and the hope here is that Wannstedt returns to a base 4-3 alignment and the natural DEs return to that position.

Chris Kelsay – I’ve never been a big fan of his, and watching him try to cover backs out of the backfield after he was moved to LB was painful. He played the best games I’ve seen him play in his entire career here the last 2 games, and it’ll be interesting to see  if he can thrive in whatever scheme Wannstedt decides to use, hopefully a simplified one. Kelsay is officially listed at LB on the roster, but I’m including him with the defensive linemen, where he belongs.

Kellen Heard – he’s a big body space eater who has worked his way into the interior line rotation, and should make the 2012 roster. Heard is only 26 and should get even better with more experience.

Lionel Dotson – it appears Buddy Nix, in 2011, tried to do for the D-line what he did in 2010 for the O-line – that is, find some gems on the waiver wire to help strengthen the unit. Dotson finished the season on the active roster and saw some playing time but didn’t distinguish himself much.

Jarron Gilbert – a third year player who had cups of coffee with the Bears and Jets, he was signed mostly with an eye toward the 2012 training camp. He’s a fringe player and I don’t give him much chance to make the team next year.

Kyle Moore – his pedigree is similar to Gilbert’s – a fringe player who has kicked around for a couple of years. He did have some game experience, with Tampa Bay, before joining the Bills and made a couple of plays in limited playing time when given the chance. He has some pass rush ability which gives him a shot at sticking on the 2012 roster.

Linebackers

Nick Barnett – a great free agent signing by Nix. He’s a veteran and a leader both on the field and in the locker room, and best of all, is a playmaker. Barnett was without a doubt an upgrade over Paul Posluszny.

Kelvin Sheppard – one of a number of rookies who played their way into the starting lineup as the year progressed. He is a tough physical player who should be a fixture at inside linebacker as long as he continues to improve. If  Wannstedt goes to a 4-3, Sheppard should be the middle backer with Barnett moving outside, where I feel he would excel.

Danny Batten – he was an unknown going into 2011, having missed the entire 2010 season due to injury. I would say he was somewhat of a disappointment in 2011, but still too young to completely write off. Like a lot of players on the defense, next year will be make-or-break for him.

Arthur Moats – he is an enigma. In 2010, he was the top rookie the Bills had, providing some pass rush and even gaining some national notoriety when he sacked Brett Favre, effectively sending him into retirement. Rather than develop into a force in 2011, he wound up mostly on the bench early on, yet later in the year when he got back on the field, provided some pressure on opposing QBs. Wannstedt needs to find a role for this kid that takes advantage of his quickness and playmaking ability.

Andra Davis – he is apparently a great guy in the locker room who has helped the younger players develop, but his playing days look  to be behind him. He may make the club again next year if they decide they need to keep some veteran depth, but I don’t see him being much of a contributor.

Kirk Morrison – actually if the Bills decide they need some veteran depth in 2012, Morrison would be a better option. He’s 4 years younger than Davis and still has a little gas in the tank. He was signed after the season had started, and given a full offseason of OTAs and training camp, should get a great shot at making the 2012 roster.

Shawne Merriman – this experiment has been a total failure so far, but he apparently will be back for one more shot at a comeback next year. I don’t put much stock in him making any contribution.

Reggie Torbor – spent most of 2011 on injured reserve, and doesn’t really fit in the team’s 2012 plans. Their linebacking corps has been loaded with old, recycled veterans the last couple of seasons, and they need to cut ties with some of them and find some players.

Chris White – his rookie year was cut short by injury, but before he got hurt showed some promise. At the very least he should be a good special teams contributor.

Robert Eddins – I haven’t included practice squad players in these reviews, but Eddins was a guy who showed flashes of having the ability to play in the NFL during last year’s preseason. The coaches must have thought along the same lines because they kept him around. He looked to me to be a very hungry player who wants to play in the NFL, and could be a diamond in the rough.

Scott McKillop – he was a post-season “future” free agent signing. A former 5th round pick of the 49ers, he is rehabbing from major knee surgery, but was an All American in college at Pitt, playing for Wannstedt. He has a reputation for being a good special teams player.

Defensive Backs

Jairus Byrd – he had a solid season and was one of a few bright spots on the defense in 2011. He possesses a great combination of ball-hawking skills and tackling ability, and my advice to Wannstedt would be to put him in a role similar to what Pro Bowl safeties Ed Reed and Troy Polomalu play – allow him to do some free-lancing to take advantage of his playmaking ability.

George Wilson – if you’re going to allow Byrd to free-lance, your other safety has to be a solid guy who has the ability to direct the other secondary players into the right spots, and Wilson fits that description. He got to where he is today the hard way, like a lot of other Bills’ players, and in 2011 was a definite upgrade over the previous starter, Donte Whitner.

Aaron Williams – by the end of the season he played his way onto the field, and got better with each game. He made rookie mistakes along the way (some of which looked like confusion from playing a too-complicated scheme) but he is a good cover guy who has physical toughness and good tackling ability, a trait missing from a majority of NFL secondary players these days.

Terrence McGee – he’s a solid player when he’s able to stay on the field, decent in coverage and also a solid tackler, but the Bills just can’t count on him to stay healthy for a full season and should make sure they have plenty of cornerback depth going into training camp.

Bryan Scott – he’s getting up in years and the team will likely look to find a replacement soon, but I still like his versatility and I feel he needs to be on the 2012 roster.

Da’Norris Searcy – he is the obvious replacement for Scott’s role on the team, and was impressive when he got on the field in 2011. A big, physical safety, he should be molded into a guy whose role is to cover the big, effective tight ends around the league (see Rob Gronkowski).

Leodis McKelvin – if he had been drafted in the 3rd or 4th round instead of being a high pick, the perception of him would be completely different. He wound up the season so far down the depth chart that he rarely got on the field with the defense, yet still kept a positive attitude and made major contributions on special teams as a gunner and punt returner. I’d like to see if a simplified scheme that emphasizes players using their physical talents helps his game.

Reggie Corner – he was originally cut at the end of the 2011 preseason but brought back after injuries struck the secondary. I would be surprised if he’s even invited back to training camp next season.

Drayton Florence – a savvy veteran who had his ups and downs this year, he will probably be in for a battle to hold onto a starting spot at cornerback in 2012.

Justin Rogers – a late round draft pick, he worked his way into significant playing time near the season’s end, and made some plays. He also did a great job returning kickoffs which will help him win a roster spot in 2012.

Josh Nesbitt – an undrafted free agent who started out on the practice squad, then was promoted to the regular roster due to injuries. If he makes the 2012 roster, it’ll be due to special teams play.

This second phase of the Buffalo Bills’ 2011 season review focuses on the offense. On that side of the ball in 2011, the Bills made progress, starting out the year as one of the highest scoring units in the NFL. However, injuries and inconsistent play plagued them for most of the season and overall it was a disappointing year. Here is a position by position player assessment of the offensive players on the current Bills’ roster:

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick – the Bills have decided he is their QB of the future, awarding him with a new contract during the season. His play fell off badly after the contract was signed, however. In my opinion, he is a good enough option to lead this team where it expects to go next year. When his game is on, Fitzpatrick makes quick decisions and gets rid of the ball quickly, and spreads the ball around well, using all the weapons at his disposal. He needs to drastically cut down on interceptions, as some of the throws he made were maddening. It says here that Fitzpatrick will prove to be an even more capable QB when he has a stronger defense on the other side of the ball, one that can keep him from being pressured to score on every drive to keep up.

Tyler Thigpen – signed as a veteran backup to Fitzpatrick because of his familiarity with coach Chan Gailey’s system, he saw little action as Fitzpatrick was pretty durable. He wasn’t very impressive in the little action he saw, and the Bills should at least consider bringing in training camp competition for the backup QB spot next year.

Running Backs

Fred Jackson – he was the team’s MVP before being injured, the most versatile back the Bills have had since Thurman Thomas. His return to the lineup next season should help the team resume the offensive effectiveness they showed at the start of 2011.

C.J. Spiller – finally got the opportunity to show his talent as an every-down back, though it came at the expense of Jackson getting hurt. Although faster than Jackson, he showed he can run between the tackles as well as outside. It will be a challenge for Chan Gailey to find enough touches next season for both Jackson and Spiller, but if he figures out how to do it the Bills’ offense will be tough to stop.

Tashard Choice – he was cut by 2 different teams before the Bills picked him up. Recruited to and coached by Gailey at Georgia Tech, he saw a lot of playing time at season’s end spelling Spiller. He didn’t really show much, but then again didn’t have much time to learn the offense. It will be a challenge for him to make the final roster in 2012. If Gailey decides to keep him in 2012, he’s the perfect candidate to be cut, then re-signed after clearing waivers.

Johnny White – he made the 2011 roster mostly for special teams contributions, and didn’t get much of a chance to run the ball with Jackson and Spiller sharing the load. Then again, when Jackson went down and opportunities arose for someone to back up Spiller, those touches went to Choice. White will have to show something in next year’s camp to make the roster again.

Corey McIntyre – the only fullback on the roster, he brings a much-needed physical presence to the offense. He rarely touches the ball, but is an effective blocker and a good special teams player. He should be a lock to return in 2012.

Bruce Hall – a tough runner, he has been in a couple of Bills’ training camps so far but never been able to crack the roster. His chances of survival are slim, but then again his path is similar to the one Fred Jackson took to where he is today.

Wide Receivers 

Stevie Johnson – despite all his immature antics, it’s imperative that the Bills get him signed. In the NFL, it’s all about accumulating as many playmakers, on both sides of the ball, as you can if your team is going to be successful. Johnson is a playmaker and has good chemistry with Fitzpatrick. Yes, his celebration act is wearing thin, but Gailey doing what a lot of coaches today don’t have the kahunas to do – benching him for the rest of the New England game – should go a long way towards curing that problem.

David Nelson – a very unselfish player, he plays a vital role in the Bills’ offense as the slot receiver. He’s the perfect possession receiver and an important weapon for the offense to succeed. He’s done a lot since making the team as an undrafted free agent 2 years ago, and will only get better.

Donald Jones – another undrafted free agent, he played well enough to push Lee Evans right off the roster in 2011, and was supposed to be a big part of the offense, but wound up battling injuries all year. He definitely should be back as a contributor and important depth player next season, but it would be wise for the Bills to try to upgrade this spot if possible, either through free agency or the draft.

Roscoe Parrish – his career was revived when Gailey arrived and began involving him in the offense, but injuries have sidetracked him big time. It may be time to cut ties with him next year and start going with younger players, since speed has always been a big part of his game and age and injuries are bound to slow him down.

Brad Smith – it’s really hard to say where on the depth chart he fits. He’s listed as the third QB, but got zero playing time there other than a few wildcat plays. He returns kickoffs but didn’t get much action there either. Injuries pushed him into the starting lineup as a receiver, and the results were mixed. Once he became a starting wideout, his other contributions disappeared. To be effective in 2012, he needs to go back to the versatile role he filled at the start of the season.

Derek Hagan – he played against the Bills while with Oakland early in the year, then signed with them after getting cut. By season’s end, all the WR injuries pushed him into a major role, and he became a frequent target for Fitzpatrick. Despite that, I don’t see him on the 2012 roster.

Naaman Roosevelt – this season was a great opportunity for the home-grown product to make his mark with the Bills. He had a great long catch-and-run play against the Giants, but his role diminished as the season wore on, and he seemed to drop a lot of balls also. He’ll have to pick up his game to make the team again in 2012, remembering that he was actually one of the final cuts this year, and only got a second shot because of all the injuries.

Kamar Aiken – I thought he showed some promise in the preseason, but when he got his opportunity to play late in the year, did basically nothing. He’s an extreme long shot to be back next season.

Ruvell Martin – a fringe player who is on the team for special teams purposes, but isn’t really that effective in that role either. He has almost no chance of coming back in 2012.

Marcus Easley – when I think of him, I think of the start of the career of former Bill Joe DeLamielleure. Joe D. was a first round draft pick who was almost forced to quit before he ever played, as doctors discovered an irregular heartbeat. He was eventually cleared to play and went on to a Hall of Fame career. Next year should be a make-or-break season for Easley physically. Here’s hoping, for the kid’s sake, it turns out similar to DeLamielleure.

David Clowney – he was cut by Carolina prior to the 2011 season and signed by the Bills to compete for a spot next year . Normally these guys are afterthoughts who don’t deserve mention. The Bills, however, have a recent  history of finding diamonds in the rough so who knows?

Tight Ends

Scott Chandler – a waiver pickup during the 2010 season, he took full advantage of his opportunity and played his way into a major role in the offense, setting a team record for touchdown receptions by a tight end despite missing some games due to injury. He should continue to be a top red zone target for Fitzpatrick next season.

Kevin Brock – signed late in the year due to injuries, he actually made a couple of plays, which is a credit to him for both earning playing time and earning the trust of Fitzpatrick.

Fendi Onobun – he was on the practice squad of 3 or 4 teams in 2011, which means either a lot of teams like him or a lot of teams let him go. He was a stop-gap signing for injury reasons and I wouldn’t expect him back.

Lee Smith – like Chandler a year earlier, he was signed off the scrap heap after being cut by the Patriots. He didn’t see a lot of action, then got hurt. He’s supposed to be a top-notch blocker.

Mike Caussin – he has hung around for a couple of years now, so he must have some value to the coaching staff, even though he hasn’t garnered a lot of playing time.

Offensive Line

Eric Wood – one of the Bills’ recent first round draft picks who has actually worked out. He was playing at a Pro Bowl level before getting hurt and although the line still played pretty well after he went down, it will be a much stronger unit next season when he’s back.

Andy Levitre – a starting guard, he was forced to move out to left tackle and even to center because of injuries. His one week at center was a real adventure, but overall he was a stalwart for the team all season and a bright spot going into 2012.

Kraig Urbik – another 2010 scrap heap signing after he was cut by the Steelers, he, like Levitre, was a warrior all year. He also played center after Wood was hurt and did an admirable job. He should be a solid fixture at one of the starting guard spots next season.

Erik Pears – another castoff signed in 2010, he played his way into the starting right tackle spot and earned himself a new contract. He did have some penalty problems late in the season that he’ll need to clean up next year.

Demetrius Bell – he is a free agent going into next season and the Bills may not pursue signing him. Gailey benched him for poor play in the preseason, then put him back in the lineup but I’m not sure the Bills are sold on him as the long-term left tackle answer.

Chris Hairston – he had a typical up-and-down rookie season, but playing the tough left tackle spot, it was mostly up. He gained valuable experience being forced to play and he, not Bell, seems to be the favored option at left tackle.

Colin Brown – he surprisingly made the final roster at the start of the season as a backup tackle. He was forced to play some at guard and didn’t do badly, but really stood out when he had to take over at center the last 2 games when Urbik got hurt. He goes into the 2012 season looking like a valuable depth player along the line.

Chad Rinehart – yet another Buddy Nix scrap heap find who provided depth on the line, mostly at guard. Just like the others already mentioned, he gets better the more game experience he gets.

Michael Jasper – drafted as a nose tackle, he spent the year on the practice squad, then was switched to the offensive line. He’s very athletic for a player his size (6’4, 383 lbs.) and the Bills feel that athletic ability could help him develop into a good tackle. He’s definitely a long-term project, however.

Sam Young – a waiver wire pickup in 2011 from Dallas, he didn’t distinguish himself much in limited playing time but will probably be given an opportunity to make the 2012 squad.

Garrison Sanborn – he’s strictly a long snapper but the fact the Bills’ special teams had no negative plays all year on special teams due to poor snaps says he’s good at the job.

I picked 9 winners out of the final week’s 16 games, so the record for the entire regular season finished at 159 correct and 97 wrong. The playoffs begin this weekend with 4 wild card games – all interesting matchups. Here are my picks:

Cincinnati at Houston – neither of these teams is very experienced in playoff football, and quarterbacks Andy Dalton of the Bengals and T.J. Yates of the Texans are in their first playoff games. I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, and Wade Phillips’ defense will come out on top and lead the Texans to a win at home.

Detroit at New Orleans – I believe the Lions actually have the better defense between these 2 teams, but there’s no way they’ll slow down Drew Brees and the Saints’ passing attack in the Superdome. New Orleans wins big here.

Atlanta at New York Giants – great matchup between 2 teams that feature tough running games. The Giants’ season was a roller coaster ride again, just like last year. After watching them finish the year with impressive wins against the Jets and Cowboys to sneak into the postseason, it looks to me like the Giants are peaking at the right time, just like they did in 2007 when they won the Super Bowl. I’ll go with the G-Men to win at home.

Pittsburgh at Denver – defenses have figured out how to stop Tim Tebow, and the Steelers are one of the few teams who still play hard-nosed defense. This will be a one-sided game with Pittsburgh coming out on top.

In reviewing the Buffalo Bills’ 2011 season, I’ve decided to break down the posting into 4 parts – critiquing the front office and coaching staff in Part 1, the offensive players by position in Part 2, the same for the defensive players in Part 3, and suggestions for possible trades, free agent signings and draft choices in Part 4. Here is the first installment, and with my wild card playoff predictions to be posted on Friday, parts 2-4 will be posted next week.

Front Office

General Manager Buddy Nix now has 2 draft classes in the books for this franchise, and the results of his drafts are mixed. The play of C.J. Spiller late in the season was promising, and along with the consistent progress Marcell Dareus showed all year, I’m willing to officially proclaim Nix’s first round choices as hits, rather than misses. Six of the nine players picked by Nix in his intial draft are still with the team, but only Spiller, Alex Carrington and Arthur Moats have made much of a contribution. The other three – Marcus Easley, Torell Troup and Danny Batten – have all had any progress hindered by injuries. The 2011 draft, on the other hand, appears to be a pretty good one, based on production during the season. Dareus, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Da’Norris Searcy, Chris Hairston and Justin Rogers all made significant contributions, while Johnny and Chris White played some on special teams. Michael Jasper was drafted as a nose tackle but after being added to the practice squad was switched to the offensive line. He is obviously a long-term project but the organization must see some value in him. On a side note, Dick Jauron’s last draft in 2009 is widely considered to be terrible since Aaron Maybin was a bust, but the 3 picks following him were Eric Wood, Jairus Byrd and Andy Levitre so that draft produced 3 solid players.

The experiment of signing Shawne Merriman looks like a lost gamble at this point, but Nix deserves credit for taking the chance. Merriman is signed through next season and coach Chan Gailey has said he fully expects him back next year, so there is an outside chance, although very slim, that he could still contribute something. Signing Nick Barnett after Paul Posluszny left was a major upgrade, and Brad Smith looked like a good addition to the offense and kick return game until injuries forced him into the lineup as a receiver, where he had mixed results. Still, Smith’s versatility should be an asset in 2012. Tyler Thigpen was signed as a backup QB but was never really needed. Three of Nix’s scrap heap finds from 2010 – tight end Scott Chandler and OLs Kraig Urbik and Erik Pears – raised their games to new levels this season and look like solid future additions.

Coaching

I still believe Chan Gailey is the right head coach to lead the Bills out of the wilderness, but the seven game losing streak, inconsistent play of the offense, and regression and overall disorganized play by the defense all have to fall under his accountability. He made a quick move after the season by replacing George Edwards with Dave Wannstedt as defensive coordinator, but my question would be – if  Wannstedt has any answers to fix the unit, why didn’t he suggest them to Gailey THIS year. After all, he is supposedly the assistant head coach. That being said, any change to what was being done with this defense this year is a positive. I thought it was very telling that, after the Bills clobbered Denver behind a rousing defensive effort, the unit’s players were universally praising the fact that the scheme was simplified for that game, allowing the players to use their instincts and play rather than overthink. It seemed to me that all season the players looked confused in the scheme. After simplifying things, you saw Chris Kelsay play the best game of his career, Jairus Byrd show the ball-hawking skills he displayed in his rookie year, and rookies like Dareus, Williams, Sheppard and Rogers all looking active. One other feather in Gailey’s cap, in my opinion, was his decision to bench Stevie Johnson after he was flagged for another celebration. I like Gailey’s style – he’s old school, is honest when addressing the media and has the respect of the players, mostly because he is a coach who knows what he’s doing. His disciplining of Johnson will further that respect.