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Week two was another relatively successful week for Rayonsports in picking winners of the NFL’s scheduled games. I picked 11 winners out of the 16 games played, bringing the 2 week total to 23 correct and 9 wrong. Here are the week 3 picks:

New York Giants at Carolina – the Giants could easily be 0-2 to start the season, but to their credit rallied to win last week. I expect this game to be a high-scoring shootout, with Cam Newton outdueling Eli Manning and leading the Panthers to a win.

Buffalo at Cleveland – the Browns, who have been anemic on offense for a couple of years, came alive and produced some points last week in a loss to the Bengals. Despite the fact they haven’t shown much of an ability to win on the road the last 2 years, I expect the Bills’ defense will be able to confuse rookie QB Brandon Weeden enough to pull out a Buffalo victory.

St. Louis at Chicago – as expected, coach Jeff Fisher has the Rams playing competitive football, but the Bears are tough at home and will win this game with a dominant performance from their defense.

Tampa Bay at Dallas – the Buccaneers’ defense was exposed by Eli Manning last week, and the Cowboys have the weapons to do the same. Dallas should win this game, since they can be a powerhouse team when playing at home.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis – this isn’t exactly a battle of NFL titans, but rookie QB Andrew Luck has been as good as advertised and I expect him to lead the Colts to a win at home.

New York Jets at Miami – the Dolphins were dominant against the Raiders last week, and the home field advantage is big for them. However, the Jets’ defense is too good for rookie QB Ryan Tannehill to handle, and I see them being the difference in what should be a hard-fought game. New York wins on the road.

San Francisco at Minnesota – the 49ers have looked like the NFL’s best team so far this season, the main reason being the play of their tough defense. They are physical and tackle well, which is a rarity in the league today. They’ll continue their impressive start by beating the Vikings.

Kansas City at New Orleans – despite looking really bad through the season’s first 2 weeks, I’ll pick the Chiefs to rebound and pull off an upset over the Saints, who are struggling also.

Detroit at Tennessee – this looks like it will be a close game, dominated by defense, but the Lions’ passing game will be the difference and they’ll get a road win here.

Cincinnati at Washington – I really believe the Bengals, overall, are the better team in this matchup but I expect Robert Griffin III and the Redskins to rebound from a tough loss last week and win at home.

Philadelphia at Arizona – the Cardinals’ upset win over New England last week was a real eye-opener, and they should be flying high at home. I’ll pick them to hand Philly their first loss of the season.

Atlanta at San Diego – a matchup of unbeaten teams led by good quarterbacks, which looks like a shootout waiting to happen. I’ll go with the Chargers.

Houston at Denver – this is another matchup where I feel the visiting team, the Texans, are better overall but also feel that the Broncos’ home field gives them a decided edge. Denver wins at home, with Peyton Manning taking extra care to protect the football.

Pittsburgh at Oakland – the Steelers are still one of the class teams of the NFL, while the Raiders’ house-cleaning following last season appears to have backfired, as they are a club that has regressed. Pittsburgh wins easily.

New England at Baltimore – I expect the Pats to rebound after last week’s shocking loss, but the Ravens are looking to avenge their AFC title game loss to New England, a game they had a couple of chances to win but couldn’t seal the deal. Baltimore will win.

Green Bay at Seattle – the Seahawks can be a tough out at home, but I expect the Packers to be efficient on both offense and defense and outlast the home team, pulling away in the fourth quarter to grab a road win.

The Buffalo Bills’ home opener on Sunday was a complete reversal of the blowout loss they suffered to the Jets last week. Buffalo dominated play and had a 35-3 lead over visiting Kansas City before surrendering a couple of “garbage” time touchdowns to the Chiefs to earn a 35-17 win. Last Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions, while this week, while still missing on a few throws early in the game, he had zero turnovers and threw a pair of impressive touchdown passes, the first an accurate over the middle toss to TE Scott Chandler, the second a quick slant to Stevie Johnson that the Bills’ top wide receiver turned into a 49 yard touchdown. Fitz’s numbers weren’t impressive, but he hit enough throws to keep drives alive and relied on his running game. That running game was keyed by a second straight monster game from C.J. Spiller, who rushed for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. Spiller became the first back to average over 10 yards per carry for his team’s first two games of the season since Jim Brown did it for Cleveland to open the 1963 season. That’s an eye-opening stat, and Spiller is also a threat as a receiver.

The Bills’ defense, barbecued on opening day by the Jets, turned in a stellar performance, sacking Chief QB Matt Cassel 5 times, forcing 2 fumbles and intercepting Cassel on the game’s final play. Kyle Williams had 2 of the sacks, while Alex Carrington, who once was a top D-line prospect but has not shown much, came to life with a sack and forced fumble.

The special teams turned the tables this week also. After giving up a long punt return for a touchdown against the Jets, this week the Bills got one of their own, an 88 yard thing of beauty from Leodis McKelvin. McKelvin was supposed to have won the job as the third corner on defense, mostly covering the opponents’ slot receiver, but he struggled against the Jets, not so much with his coverage ability but with his inability to make any plays on the ball. Justin Rogers got a lot of action as the “slot” corner in this game, but McKelvin, to his credit, is becoming a special teams playmaker, not only on kick returns but as a gunner on kick coverage also.

Overall, it was a solid team win for the Bills, and a much needed one after the Jet game mirrored the way most of the second half of last season went. It at least temporarily righted the ship, and should be a boost of confidence for both the players and coaching staff. Now it’s on to a matchup on the road with Cleveland, which has started 0-2 and won’t be an easy out. The Bills need to now prove they can keep their composure, stay competitive in, and win a game away from the friendly confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Opening weekend for the NFL was a pretty successful one for Rayonsports in picking winners, as I managed to get 12 correct out of the 16 games played. Here are my picks for the second week:

Chicago at Green Bay – the longest-running rivalry in league history continues at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay was upset by the 49ers last week. I can’t see the Packers losing again, especially at home, so I’ll pick them to knock off the Bears in this important NFC North matchup.

Kansas City at Buffalo – these 2 teams are coming off surprising blowout losses in week one. They’ll both be battling hard to avoid going 0-2, so the game will be close. I’ll pick the Bills to win at home, as their defense, humiliated last week, rebounds and keys a low-scoring victory.

New Orleans at Carolina – another matchup of teams that lost surprisingly last week, this one a battle of division rivals. Cam Newton is due to have big game, and I don’t think the Saints’ defense is strong enough to stop him from having one. The Panthers win in a high-scoring offensive game.

Cleveland at Cincinnati – the Browns’ defense kept Michael Vick in check last week, but they won’t do the same to Andy Dalton and the Bengal attack. Cincinnati wins their home opener.

Minnesota at Indianapolis – the expectation is, after cutting ties with Peyton Manning and mostly dismantling the rest of their roster also, that the Colts would be the worst team in the NFL this year. That might be the case, but I’ll pick them to get a win at home in this one.

Houston at Jacksonville –  the Texans, after making the playoffs for the first time ever in 2011, look focused to do even bigger things this year. They should win this game over a weaker division rival.

Oakland at Miami – there shouldn’t be much offense generated in this game, and the Raiders have a few more veterans on their club who should get it done, on both sides of the ball, enough to win on the road here.

Arizona at New England – Tom Brady’s practice sessions this week will be harder than this game. The Patriots put it away early and cruise to their 2nd win.

Tampa Bay at New York Giants – kudos to the Bucs for an impressive opening day win over Carolina, but they’ll be facing a buzzsaw this week against the Super Bowl champion Giants. New York rights the ship and gets their first win.

Baltimore at Philadelphia – the Eagles managed to pull off a last minute win at Cleveland last week, but the Ravens aren’t the Browns. Well, actually they are the original Browns franchise that recently deceased Art Modell moved to Baltimore, but they are looking like the class of the AFC North this year, and will outclass Vick and the Eagles and win this one.

Dallas at Seattle – that was a big win on opening night for Tony Romo and the Cowboys, and the temptation is to pick them to win this game, but the Seahawks have a way of playing big when it’s least expected, and I’ll go with them to win at home.

Washington at St. Louis – the RGIII road show continues, and the Redskins beat the Rams. Griffin has the luxury of starting his career with a team that has a competent defense in Washington, and they’ll surprise a lot of people in the NFC East race this year.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh – after dispatching their patsies – the Bills – on opening day, the Jets come back to earth this week against the homestanding Steelers. Pittsburgh gets the win.

Tennessee at San Diego – the Titans will put up much more of a fight than they did in week one in New England, but I see the Chargers winning again, giving them a rare fast start early in the season.

Detroit at San Francisco – it was a statement on how bad defense is being played in the NFL these days when the 49ers were being praised for “shutting down” Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay on opening day, as they gave up 32 points to the Pack in pulling off the upset. I do think the Niners will win this game, since the Lions are lacking a good enough running game.

Denver at Atlanta – it looks like the Falcons are determined to put their disappointing 2011 season behind them, judging by their big win in Kansas City to open this season. However, it also appears that Peyton Manning is pretty determined to put 2011 behind him also. I’ll go with the Broncos to make it 2 wins in a row.

The standard line all teams use about the beginning of every new NFL season is – don’t pay attention to anything that happens in the preseason, because it never translates into the regular games. However, the Buffalo Bills’ opening game of the 2012 season against the New York Jets looked as bad as any of the 4 eggs they laid in the exhibitions, maybe worse when you consider that Sunday’s clunker was achieved with the starters playing the entire game. Here are some observations from the game, both negative and positive, about the Bills, starting with the negatives:

* Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t looked sharp at all this year, actually since the first 7 games of last season. The problem is the excuse that he had injured ribs doesn’t hold water anymore. I think it’s very telling that the television analyst for the game, former NFL QB Rich Gannon, continually criticized Fitz’s decision-making in the game. Gannon’s NFL career was similar to Fitzpatrick’s – he was considered a career backup until getting his chance to start with the Raiders, and his strength was his heady play, his weakness that he lacked the strong arm of other QBs. So Gannon knows what he’s talking about. It’s alarming that a QB who is a Harvard grad and whose game is predicated on reading defenses and making smart decisions has looked so clueless.

* Speaking of clueless, what was the Bills’ defensive secondary doing all game long? New D-coordinator Dave Wannstedt has installed a new, simplified 4-3 scheme that the players are supposed to thrive in. Jet receivers were running uncovered all day and the defensive backs looked totally befuddled, especially on third down, as the Jets converted 71% of their third down opportunities, and most of those conversions looked way too easy. Of course, there was no pass rush at all to help them out, as Mario Williams and Mark Anderson were invisible throughout the game, but that’s still no excuse for all the blown coverages that were going on all day. The expectation was that Wannstedt would have some wrinkles ready to try to get Jet QB Mark Sanchez off his game and disrupt the team’s passing game, but the defensive game plan looked just like the “vanilla” plan the Bills used in preseason. Also, on paper, the defense has some top-notch players, but when is this unit going to develop some backbone and start stopping somebody? The Jets didn’t punt until early in the 4th quarter, when the game was pretty much decided.

* The Bills had the top kick coverage teams in the NFL last year, so how do the special teams open the season? By allowing a long punt return for a touchdown. The fact that the game was a blowout and that all 3 phases – offense, defense and special teams – looked flat is an indictment of the entire coaching staff. The players looked unprepared, and typical of games like this when one team is physically manhandling the other,  Buffalo lost 2 key players to injury – star RB Fred Jackson and slot receiver David Nelson.

Here are the positives:

* If Jackson’s knee injury turns out to be serious, the Bills’ running game should at least still be competent as long as C.J. Spiller stays healthy. He was one player who looked motivated and played hard on Sunday, recording the best rushing day of his career.

* It’s a shame that the Bills’ pass defense was so lost and disorganized on Sunday. The team did a decent job stopping the run, which really is the strength of the Jets’ offense.

* There is some potential for success by the offense if Fitzpatrick can get his head out of the clouds. The line seems to be blocking well for both the run and pass, and guys like Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, Scott Chandler, Spiller and Nelson have the potential to make plays. They just need their quarterback to get them the ball accurately and on time more often.

So now, the Bills’ coaches have to sort through the rubble from this opening day disaster and figure out how to right the ship before next week’s home opener against Kansas City. They’ll likely have to play without Jackson and Nelson, so the offense will be handicapped even more. It probably should have been expected that the Bills would struggle against the Jets, since Rex Ryan’s team has owned the Bills for a few years now. They’ve been able to beat Buffalo by dominating in the trenches on both sides of the ball. It’s unlikely the Chiefs will be able to accomplish that, but Buffalo won’t win this week either without picking up their game in all three phases.

The National Football League’s 2012 regular season begins this week, and this year really snuck up on me since the opening game is being played on Wednesday night. There are always surprises that take place on the opening weekend, and it’s generally the hardest week to pick winners. I haven’t posted on this blog in awhile, but I do have a few “drafts” of posts started, and now that the NFL season is here, I’m sure I’ll find the time to post more frequently. There will be a Buffalo Bills season preview coming later in the week. For now, here are my selections for this week’s games:

Dallas at New York Giants – seriously, the Giants of the past few seasons have got to be the most inconsistent multiple Super Bowl winners of all time. Then again, Dallas may be even more inconsistent. I’ll take the G-men to post a big opening night win.

Buffalo at New York Jets – the Bills started out strong last year before fading badly, but the Jets have had their number for a couple of years now. I’m not sold on Mark Sanchez as a quality NFL quarterback, but I also don’t think the Bills’ new revamped defense is a cohesive enough unit yet to stop the Jets. New York opens at home with a win.

Indianapolis at Chicago – the Colts are officially rebuilding and the Bears are going to be a sleeper team in 2012. The Andrew Luck era begins with a loss as Chicago’s defense dominates at home.

Philadelphia at Cleveland – the Eagles were a major disappointment in 2011 and I believe they’ll be on a mission to prove last season was a fluke. Philly wins a close contest over a developing Browns’ squad.

St. Louis at Detroit – the Lions’ defense should smother the Ram offense at home, and I believe they’ll win this game, but because new coach Jeff Fisher will have his players prepared, the game will be a lot closer than expected.

Miami at Houston – the Dolphins drew a tough opponent to open the season against. Wade Phillips’ Texan defense will keep Miami rookie QB Ryan Tannehill in check, and Houston will win big.

Atlanta at Kansas City – the Chiefs, a playoff team in 2010, started the season miserably last year as injuries and bad losses derailed them and cost coach Todd Haley his job. Romeo Crennel righted the ship enough to earn a shot at coaching the team for at least a full season, and K.C. will be competitive all year in the AFC West. However, the Falcons will pull out a close win on the road here.

Jacksonville at Minnesota – neither of these teams is going to contend in 2012, but one of them will excite their fan base with an opening day win. I believe that team will be the Vikings at home, with QB Christian Ponder playing a decent game.

Washington at New Orleans – even with all the Bountygate distractions and suspensions, the Saints, on paper, are a much better team than the Redskins. But I’ll take Washington to pull off an opening day upset.

New England at Tennessee – look for Titans’ RB Chris Johnson to have a big game on the ground, and for the Patriots to cruise to an opening day win behind Tom Brady.

Seattle at Arizona – both of these teams have aspirations of stealing the the NFC West division crown away from the 49ers. The Seahawks actually have a shot at meeting those aspirations, and will open the 2012 season with a big division road win here.

San Francisco at Green Bay –  the 49ers probably play better defense than the Packers, but there’s no way Alex Smith outduels Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field on opening day. Green Bay wins handily.

Carolina at Tampa Bay – I expect both of these teams to be competitive in a tough NFC South this year. In this game, I also expect Cam Newton to light it up and lead the Panthers to a big win.

Pittsburgh at Denver – Tim Tebow led the Broncos to a huge playoff upset over the Steelers last year, then was unceremoniously dumped in favor of Peyton Manning. So there’s a lot of pressure on Manning to at least match what Tebow did. I think he’s up to it, and the Broncos will win a close game at home.

Cincinnati at Baltimore – the first game of an opening weekend Monday Night doubleheader. Both of these teams are competent and coming off playoff years, but the Ravens are at home and have much more experience in the big game spotlight, so I’ll pick them to win.

San Diego at Oakland –  an old AFL rivalry matchup to wrap up the first regular season weekend. Oakland is improving, but the Chargers are a better team at this point and will win a hard fought contest here, with Philip Rivers outdueling Carson Palmer.

In trying to think of a way to describe the 2012 Buffalo Bills’ draft class, the best phrase I could come up with is “under the radar”. After making a big splash in free agency by signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to beef up their pass rush, the Bills went through the 3 days of the NFL draft pretty quietly, with each pick drawing little fanfare. General Manager Buddy Nix seems to have supplied help to most positions of need for the Bills, with the exception of a backup quarterback. The team did address that, however, immediately after the draft by signing Aaron Corp out of Richmond as an undrafted free agent. Corp was slated to be the starting QB for the USC Trojans before a major injury sidelined him, and after recovering the job had been sewn up by current star Matt Barkley (expected to be a high NFL pick next year), so he transferred to Richmond and carved out a pretty good college career. Interestingly, the team also signed one of the top collegiate punters, Shaun Powell of Florida State, to challenge Brian Moorman. Powell is 6’4″ and 248 lbs., huge for a punter, and has a very strong leg.  Here is an analysis of the Bills’ 2012 draft class:

1. Stephon Gilmore (CB – South Carolina) – he was considered to be the second best corner in the draft behind LSU’s Morris Claiborne. One difference between the two – Claiborne reportedly scored low on the NFL Combine’s Wunderlic IQ test, while Gilmore was an honor student. Still, intelligence doesn’t always translate into being a good football player. Gilmore does have great athletic ability, and the Bills’ plan is to eventually pair him with 2011 second round pick Aaron Williams as starters on the outside, two big, physical, athletic corners to battle all the big receivers in the AFC East.

2. Cordy Glenn (OT – Georgia) – he was considered a first round pick, and is a huge specimen with long arms. The Bills were thrilled to get him in the 2nd round, seeing him as a future left tackle, even though he only played there for one season with the Bulldogs. Most draft “experts” love the kid but see him as a guard or right tackle at best. Although the Bills’ front office’s opinion of Glenn seems to differ from others, the best description I saw over the weekend of him was that he’s “bustproof” due to his ability to play anywhere on the line at a high level if he doesn’t work out at LT.

Cordy Glenn

3. T.J. Graham (WR – North Carolina State) – the Bills traded up to get him even though he wasn’t rated very highly on most “experts” draft boards. He is fast ( he ran college track) but small and there is a consensus among scouts that he needs to get stronger to avoid getting pushed around by bigger, stronger NFL defensive backs. He also supposedly needs to work on his route running, but has improved his hands as his college career progressed. The Bills’ brass must see something in him that other teams just don’t.

T.J. Graham

4a. Ron Brooks – (CB – LSU) – Brooks’ college coach, Les Miles, was a guest analyst on NFL Network’s draft coverage and offered this assessment of him: “He played a lot in every game. I think they’re getting a great pick there and a guy that’ll be in the NFL a long time.” Brooks wasn’t a starter, but played his college career behind 2 top 10 draft picks (Patrick Peterson and Claiborne) and according to some scouts probably would’ve been a star at another school.

4b. Nigel Bradham (LB – Florida State) – he was a team captain for the Seminoles, so he must have some leadership ability. Apparently he struggles with the mental side of the game, so the fact the Bills are simplifying their defense under Dave Wannstedt should help him. He should at least compete for a roster spot with special teams play.

5a.  Zebrie Sanders (OT – Florida State) – an interesting prospect who has a chance to stick with the club as a depth lineman, although he needs work. He might be a practice squad candidate, although some experts feel he could be the steal of the draft. Sanders was considered a much higher draft pick before a poor showing at the Senior Bowl and a subpar Combine dropped his stock considerably.

5b. Tank Carder (LB – TCU) – he’s known for being a physical player who hits hard, something the Bills’ defense can use. He will need to make the team as a special teamer and hope to develop his overall defensive game. His back story is interesting – he was a BMX bicycle racer as a teenager and survived a traffic accident where his injuries were so severe that doctors feared he wouldn’t walk again.

Tank Carder

6. Mark Asper (G- Oregon) – another big offensive lineman. He was a good run blocker in Oregon’s fast-paced offense, and has versatility – he can player guard, center or tackle – which makes him a candidate to stick due to the ability to fill in at different spots on the line.

7. John Potter (K – Western Michigan) – I can’t remember the last time the Bills drafted a kicker. Potter’s job will be “kickoff specialist”, which means he’ll be expected to boot the ball out of the end zone on kickoffs to help out the defense with field position. Rian Lindell is 35 years old and had injury problems in 2011, so Potter could have a chance to win the regular kicking job in the future.

On average, if 50% of the players drafted make the team and are making some sort of contribution 3 or 4 years later, then that draft is considered a success. At the very least it appears the Bills have added size, strength and speed to the roster and have created some competition for spots in training camp. That can only make the team better in 2012.

Back in January, in Part 4 of a season-ending report card on the Buffalo Bills, I wrote a post naming New Orleans receiver Marques Colston and Colts’ defensive end Robert Mathis as the top “fits” for the team to pursue in free agency as it looked to improve next season. One comment that I added was that if the Bills signed a player of the stature of either of these two, it would be big news since they haven’t historically made any big splashes when it comes to signing free agents. As it turns out, Colston re-signed with the Saints, and the Colts placed a “franchise” tag on Mathis, retaining his rights. I never even mentioned Houston’s Mario Williams as an option, since he was basically the top player available, and the possibility of Buffalo signing, or even bothering to pursue him, was unfathomable. Yet the Bills pulled off the impossible dream for their fan base last week when they inked the big defensive end to a six year contract.

To me, this signing sends more positive vibes about the franchise than just the fact that they’ve now shown they’re willing to spend money to put a winner on the field. It also tells me that the management team recognizes that the biggest obstacle to winning games in 2011 was a porous, inexperienced defense, and is taking steps to fix that. The first step was elevating Dave Wannstedt to coordinate the unit, and the signing of Williams is a huge move. He will be the closest thing the Bills have had to Bruce Smith, and like Smith, was the top overall pick of the NFL draft when he was chosen by the Texans in 2006. The Bills already have a pair of dominating defensive tackles in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams (who helped recruit Mario) and the addition of the biggest free agent player available to that line gives the team a chance to develop a dominating front four. Their pass rush, a major weakness for years, will certainly be better, and I’ll predict here and now something that I’ve felt was always the case – just watch how much better the team’s linebacking and secondary turn out to be when they have a competent D-line in front of them. In earlier posts, I’ve mentioned that with the NFL evolving into a passing league lately, dominated by record-setting quarterbacks orchestrating spread offenses, that the next big trend will be teams attempting to build dominating defenses to control those attacks. It is a huge positive for Buffalo fans to see their team on the leading edge of that trend, rather than following the pack a couple of years later. There will actually be excitement, rather than moans and groans, when the defense takes the field this year.

A couple of other points about the Williams signing – those being Mario’s character and the role Hall of Famer Jim Kelly had in helping to recruit him to sign here. Williams’ press conference was impressive. He is obviously a team guy who should be a good fit with the current roster. Coach Chan Gailey mentioned that he knew they had the right guy when the first thing he said was “I’ll do whatever I need to do to help the team win championships.” Also, this story didn’t get much mention, but Williams’ sister’s husband was killed fighting in the war in Iraq, and he paid off the mortgage on her house after that tragedy occurred. That doesn’t bring back her husband but is a big step to relieving some stress in her life, and is an example of the guy having his priorities in order.

As for Kelly, how great is it to have an ambassador like him for the franchise? Remember, this is a guy who balked at playing here in his younger days, and now describes himself as a “Southtowns guy”. After the Williams’ signing, some Miami fans were lamenting on their team’s web site that it was great for Buffalo to have Kelly helping the franchise, and that the Dolphins should use Dan Marino in a similar role to help woo Peyton Manning to South Beach. Sorry, but I just don’t picture Marino being much of a “team” guy who’d be interested in doing that.

It’s been two weeks since the New York Giants, for the second time in five years, defeated the New England Patriots to win the NFL title. The game was pretty much just as exciting as the Giants’ huge upset in 2007 when New England came into the game undefeated, but the result was not as unexpected this time. Rather than rehash the game itself, here are some thoughts I’ve had resulting from it:

* In winning his second Super Bowl ring and game MVP award, Eli Manning has removed any doubt that he is an elite quarterback in the NFL. He may never be a record-breaking passer like the Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady types that dominate today’s game, but he’s a leader, a gamer, and has now outdueled Brady in both of their head-to-head meetings.

* This is now the second time the Giants have struggled through a good portion of the regular season, gotten hot at the right time and ridden that momentum to a Super Bowl title. Add to that the fact that Green Bay did the same thing last season, and it makes what Bill Parcells has always said look very prophetic. His philosophy is that the key is to continually try to get your team to improve each game, and do whatever it takes to get that team into what he calls “the tournament”. From there, anything is possible, as the Packers and Giants have proven the last two seasons.

* As passing records fell all year long this season, I’ve often wondered if the days of dominating defenses, like the old Steel Curtain and Miami “No Name” defense, are gone forever. But after seeing the Giants play a decent defensive game once again versus the Pats, I have a feeling that defense will be back in vogue next season.

* Speaking of the Giants’ good defensive showing late in the year, here’s hoping that late season improvement results in New York defensive coordinator Perry Fewell getting some serious consideration for a head coaching job in the future. Fewell did a good job in his short opportunity as interim head coach in Buffalo a few seasons back, and deserves another shot.

* Just like in 2007, the Giants again showed that the key to beating today’s elite passers is to get pressure up the middle on them, taking them out of their comfort zone in the pocket. Whereas the QBs are all adept at beating pressure off the edges by using subtle “step up” movement in the pocket to buy time, forcing them to vacate the pocket disrupts the timing of their precision passing games. So even though the hometown Buffalo Bills have a long way to go to improve their defense, they have two key pieces to their puzzle already in place in interior linemen Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus.

This Sunday’s Super Bowl game between the New England Patriots and New York Giants looks like it has the makings of a great matchup. If the two teams can play a game anything close to their Super Bowl matchup of 2007, when the Giants ruined the Pats’ attempt at the first unbeaten season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins, it’ll be a game well worth watching. Both teams are solid organizations, well-coached by two disciples of Bill Parcells – Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin. Circumstances have changed for both teams going into this game. In the Super Bowl XLII matchup, the Patriots were a heavy favorite, boasting an offensive juggernaut led by Tom Brady, who had a record-breaking season. His main target that year was Randy Moss, who had the best season of his career.  The Giants barely got into the playoffs, but got hot late in the regular season, and rode their momentum all the way into the big game. In the game itself, the Giants did something no other opponent did that year – they pressured Brady up the middle, took him out of the comfort zone he’d been in all year, and held the high voltage attack to 14 points in pulling off the biggest championship game upset since the Jets beat the Colts in Super Bowl III.

One of the strengths of the Giants going into this year’s game is their pass rush, which is one of the few in the NFL that’s capable of applying pressure with just the front four. The only player who isn’t on that front line from the 2007 team is Michael Strahan, who retired. In his place, however, is an emerging defensive star in Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants’ secondary is somewhat suspect, but the effectiveness of the defensive line can mask that. The Patriots are not the same high-powered offensive machine they were in 2007, but as long as Brady is directing the attack, they are a threat to win. Two players the Giants didn’t have to deal with in the earlier Super Bowl are tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who are matchup nightmares for any defense. Although Brady is seeking his fourth Super Bowl title, which would elevate his stature to the Joe Montana/Terry Bradshaw level, don’t overlook the skill of Eli Manning on the other side of the field. Manning won the 2007 matchup with Brady, and has matured into an even better passer and leader than he was then.

How much will the 2007 game affect this year’s Super Bowl? Considering that the Giants have only 16 holdovers from their Super Bowl winning roster of that year, and New England only 7, probably not much. My feeling is that the Giants, although they were a roller coaster team most of the season before catching fire late in the year, are a better team than they were then, while the Patriots are not. For that reason, I’m picking the Giants to win on Sunday, in a tough game in which New York’s more physical presence, on both sides of the ball, will be the difference.