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Entering the 2013 regular season, the Buffalo Bills were almost a mystery. With a new front office, new coaching staff and a roster loaded with new players, it was hard to get a handle on what to expect when the team opened the season at home against division rival New England on Sunday. The result of the game, a 23-21 Patriot win,  was typical of Bills-Patriots recent matchups – a competitive contest that goes down to the wire, and in the end New England makes the plays they need to win, and the Bills don’t. As far as the play of the home team, there were pluses and minuses, and, considering the “new” Bills were thrown into the fire against one of the league’s best teams, the result, though disappointing, is also somewhat encouraging, if coach Doug Marrone can build off the effort. Here are some of the minuses:

* Mistakes, penalties and turnovers. The Bills stayed in the game down to the wire despite the fact that they handed Tom Brady field position for 2 easy TDs with fumbles, and killed drives with costly penalties. The penalty situation was a constant throughout the preseason, but the thinking then was that the flags were against players who wouldn’t make the final roster anyway. After 13 penalties in the opener, it’s now clearly a pattern that the coaches haven’t been able to clean up.

* the disappointing performance by C.J. Spiller, who fumbled on the team’s first drive and was ineffective all day.

* the underwhelming play of their big-money free agent, Mario Williams. Williams didn’t do much, and the Pats seemed to be targeting his side with the run when they needed crucial yards on the ground.

* the inability of the defense to get stops on third down, especially when the game was on the line. Granted, Brady and the Pats have been one of the best, if not THE best, team in the NFL recently in converting on third down, but the Bills’ defense has been horrible in what seems like forever in getting off the field on third downs, through numerous coaching staffs and players.

Here are the positives to take from the game:

* the exceptional play of rookie QB E.J. Manuel. He was composed in the pocket and showed good decision-making skills, a quick release and a nice touch on his passes. Despite being held back by a conservative game plan designed to help him “manage the game”, Manuel was effective even though the Bills rarely threw on first down and seemed to wind up putting him in third-and-long situations all day due to an ineffective running game. He showed enough in this game for the coaches to hopefully unleash him a little more in next week’s game against Carolina.

* the play of the secondary. They faltered at the end of the game by allowing Brady to complete passes for first downs on the winning drive, but played well most of the day considering 2 of their best players, Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd, were missing. Byrd’s replacement, Da’Norris Searcy, was a revelation, with a sack and a fumble recovery return for a touchdown. The Bills are a young team looking for some of their new players to step up and make plays, and Searcy certainly answered the call.

* the play of Fred Jackson. Jackson was playing at an MVP level in 2011 before getting hurt, then had a down season in 2012 that included some ineffective games and numerous costly fumbles. He looks ready to be a positive contributor and a much-needed veteran leader on offense this season.

* rookie receiver Robert Woods. A high draft pick, he was penciled in to the starting lineup early in training camp, and saw very limited action in preseason. Woods made a couple of nice catches (one negated by one of those costly penalties) and looks like the real deal.

Overall, despite the loss, the Bills, considering the quality of their opponent, gave a decent showing, and if they clean up the penalties and turnovers and stop beating themselves, have a chance for a winning season.

2013 will be another season of massive change for the Buffalo Bills’ organization, for better or worse. After successive 6-10 finishes and no signs of progress, changes needed to be made again. Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey were good guys and certainly not the worst football people the organization has had over the last dozen or so years, but they just failed to get any positive results. The question Bills’ fans have to be asking after all these years is – will they ever get it right?

Here is my Bills’ season preview for 2013:

The Buffalo Bills’ 2013 draft was significantly different than past drafts under GM Buddy Nix, which tells me that new head coach Doug Marrone had a major say in what type of player his squad would feature. The Bills seemed to put a high priority on speed and toughness, and didn’t shy away from players who carried off-field baggage. The Bills also may have found a gem among the undrafted free agents they signed after the draft, landing Da’Rick Rogers, a wide receiver from Tennessee Tech. Rogers finished his career at Tech after being kicked off the team at Tennessee for failing multiple drug tests. Rogers was considered a better player than 2 other Volunteer receivers who were drafted high – Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter. Also, right after the draft, the Bills dealt LB Kelvin Sheppard, who was considered a major building block of the defense by the prior regime, to Indianapolis for LB Jerry Hughes, a former number one pick of the Colts who was an underachiever there. Hughes is considered a better fit for new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine’s scheme. Here is a look at the Bills’ draft picks:

QB EJ Manuel 

1. EJ Manuel (QB – Florida State) – the Bills traded down from the eighth pick to 16th before choosing Manuel, but most experts still feel the pick was a “reach”, and that Manuel could’ve been had much later. Still, he supposedly has a “higher ceiling” than any of the other QBs in this draft, once he gains experience. Manuel is a big, physical player with great athletic ability, and whether he works out or not will likely mean the difference between whether the team continues on the road to mediocrity or finally becomes a playoff contender.

WR Robert Woods 

2A. Robert Woods (WR – Southern Cal) – all of the draft experts agree this was a great pick for the Bills, as Woods is considered the most “NFL ready” of any receiver available in the draft. He should be ready to step into the starting lineup from day one and be a terrific complimentary receiver to Stevie Johnson.

2B. Kiko Alonso (LB – Oregon) – Alonso was a bonus pick, acquired from the Rams for trading out of the eighth spot. He’s supposed to be a quick, physical player who will add much-needed toughness to the Bills’ defense. He has a DUI and burglary arrest on his record, so he’s an obvious risk. However, strictly as a player, he seems to be a rangy linebacker who is a good tackler but can also be good in coverage. According to some scouts, he was the guy “making all the plays that Dion Jordan was supposed to be making”. (Jordan was picked third overall by Miami). He has a great chance to be an opening day starter in the Bills’ new 3-4 defense.

WR Marquise Goodwin

3. Marquise Goodwin (WR – Texas) – an Olympic hurdler, Goodwin is a speedster but wasn’t even a starter for the Longhorns. Obviously, by releasing players like David Nelson and Donald Jones and then drafting players like Woods and Goodwin, Marrone is looking for more dynamic playmakers at the wideout spots. Goodwin is described as “highly athletic and surprisingly tough”.

S Duke Williams

4. Duke Williams (S – Nevada) – draft experts universally gave the Bills high marks for this pick. Williams, like Alonso, is considered a tough player who should challenge Da’Norris Searcy for George Wilson’s starting safety job. Some words used to describe Williams in draft scouting reports – grit, nastiness, thumper, enforcer.

S Jonathan Meeks

 5. Jonathan Meeks (S – Clemson) – the Bills doubled up on safeties in the later rounds, which led to immediate speculation that they won’t re-sign Jairus Byrd beyond his one-year “franchise tag” contract. I hope that’s not true. The Bills can’t afford to let young playmakers walk away. Meeks has good size and probably better coverage ability than Williams, and can play both strong and free safety.

6. Dustin Hopkins (K – Florida State) – Hopkins is described as “a special kicker” who has a great NFL upside. With incumbent K Rian Lindell in his mid-30s, he has a chance to make the roster, and has one advantage – his former holder at Florida State is current Bills’ punter Shawn Powell.

TE Chris Gragg

7. Chris Gragg (TE – Arkansas) – another pick acquired from the Rams for moving down in round one. Gragg, for a seventh round pick, gets surprisingly high marks from the scouts. Some say he “can’t block a lick”, but that he could be a good downfield receiver in the right situation.

Part 4 of the Buffalo Bills’ 2012 season review looks at the holes the team has, and some ways they can fill them. Last season, in pointing out the team’s needs and possibilities of filling those needs through free agency, I never even mentioned the possibility of bringing in Mario Williams or Mark Anderson, since the team’s history showed they had no interest, or no realistic shot, at signing those types of big-name players. So this year, all possibilities have to be considered. The biggest task the front office has in the off-season is to re-sign the 2 most important unrestricted free agents – Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd. When a team has as dismal a record for as long a period of time as the Bills do, they have to at least make every effort to keep what little talent they already have on hand around. I believe they will, if only to give new coach Doug Marrone the best possible chance to succeed. Here is a look at the positions of greatest need, in my opinion, that the Bills have, and what options they have to fill those needs:

Quarterback

GM Buddy Nix has made it clear that the team will draft a “quarterback of the future” this off-season. The Bills need an upgrade at the position, but in my opinion shouldn’t look to free agency or trades to do it. They need to draft a young signal-caller, not add somebody else’s headache to the roster. There is already speculation that the team is targeting Marrone’s QB at Syracuse, Ryan Nassib, who is projected as a second round pick but is moving into the first round on some draft boards. If Nassib lasts until round 2, the Bills should jump on him, but a better strategy may be to choose Arkansas’ Tyler Wilson with their top pick (number 8 in round 1). Some “mock” drafts have the Bills taking him, and ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper recently compared his style to that of former Bill Jim Kelly. That’s all the endorsement I  would need to pick the kid. The Bills should stay away from Matt Barkley of USC, whose stock fell due to a disappointing 2012 season but who is still seen by many as a first rounder. I don’t feel a laid-back Southern California surfer dude is a good fit for Buffalo.

Running Back

With C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson on the roster, the Bills, on paper, don’t need another running back, but if they decide to part ways with Jackson to open up a bigger opportunity for Spiller, they may want to find another back, preferably one who fills a different role than Spiller, like a big, bruising short yardage back. Spencer Ware from LSU and Rex Burkhead of Nebraska are examples of that type of back, and would be available in later rounds in the draft.

Receivers

There aren’t many projected “can’t miss” prospects, like Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green, in this year’s receiver class, but there are plenty of good ones available. Two underclassmen from Tennessee who declared for the draft early are Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter, who are both big, tall receivers who can go up and get the ball even when covered. One or both could be available in the second round of the draft, should the Bills choose to pick a QB in the first round. If the Bills go the free agent route, two intriguing prospects are Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh, who would fill the need for a deep threat to play opposite Stevie Johnson, and New England’s Wes Welker, a slot receiver who isn’t a downfield threat but who is extremely productive and great at moving the chains. The Bills may have a need for a tight end if Scott Chandler starts the season still rehabbing from a knee injury. A good veteran free agent prospect to consider if that’s the case would be Dustin Keller of the Jets, who has ties with the defensive coaches from New York that Marrone has already brought in. There are at least 5 “gold standard” tight ends available in the draft, but I can’t see the Bills using their high pick on that position.

Linebacker

Pencil in Bryan Thomas of the Jets as a possible free agent signing by the Bills, with his connection to new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. Another interesting player is Houston’s Connor Barwin, a former teammate of Mario Williams. The Bears’ Brian Urlacher is a free agent, and apparently not a big fan of the team’s firing of Lovie Smith as coach. Could the Bills make another big free agent splash and sign him? The Bills could use their top draft pick on a LB, since it’s a position of great need. Some mock drafts had them taking Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o, but his imaginary girlfriend problems could send him plummeting down the draft boards. Jarvis Jones of Georgia and Sam Montgomery from LSU are two top-notch “rush” linebackers the team could consider.

Part 3 of the Bills’ 2012 season review will take a look at the current roster of defensive players. The one thought I have as far as the job Dave Wannstedt did as coordinator is that he did little to put the players in position to make plays. His “scheme” was supposed to be simplistic or “vanilla”, yet the players looked lost and out of position in a lot of games in 2012. There was a lot of post-game talk, after some embarrassing losses, about missed assignments, and “gap control” and “run fits”. It just looked to me like the players were put in positions that appeared to make them robotic, and not instinctive. I really believe the players on the defensive side are mostly gamers who play hard, but they really underachieved as a unit in 2012. It will be a tough job for the new coaching staff to sort out what they have on defense and try to forge a respectable unit in 2013. Here is a position-by-position analysis of the Bills’ defense:

Defensive Linemen

This was going to be a strength of the team in 2012, but it didn’t work out that way. High-priced free agent Mario Williams started out slowly, supposedly due to a wrist injury, then came on later in the year after having surgery on the wrist. The Bills’ new coordinator, Mike Pettine, comes over from the New York Jets, where a 3-4 defense was mostly featured. I can’t see the Bills using the 3-4 as their base defense, since the linebacking corps is a major weakness. That’s actually a good thing, since it means players like Mario Williams (and others) won’t have to try to play linebacker where they’re not a good fit. The expectation should be that both Williams’, Mario and tackle Kyle Williams, will thrive under the new coaches. Marcell Dareus has been decent, but his play hasn’t matched the spot where he was drafted (a #3 overall pick). New coach Doug Marrone has to get him playing at a higher level. Kyle Moore, who was the fourth starter along the D-line for most of 2012, showed some promise but is an unrestricted free agent, so it’ll be interesting to see how hard the club tries to re-sign him. Chris Kelsay’s days may be numbered with the Bills. He’s a 10 year veteran who’s never been much more than an average player. Two other defensive ends who are free agents – Spencer Johnson and Shawne Merriman – are players who wouldn’t be missed much if the team allows them to leave. Merriman, GM Buddy Nix’s pet project,  has never panned out, while Johnson has been a decent player over the years who fit nicely into the D-line rotation. However, his play slipped in 2012. Another big free agent signing, DE Mark Anderson, battled injuries all year and didn’t do anything to justify his contract, but the team invested a lot in him so he should be given every opportunity in 2013 to make the roster and contribute. Alex Carrington and Torell Troup are 2 of Nix’s draftees who’ve never really fully developed, but in 2012 Carrington made a major case that he’s ready to take on a major role with the defense. He made major contributions blocking kicks on special teams, and in his limited chances in the D-line rotation was an active player who made plays in both stopping the run and pressuring the opposing quarterback.

Linebackers

The Bills’ linebacking corps entered the 2012 season relying on some young players to take major leaps forward in their development to help solidify what was supposed to be a strong defense. Like a lot of other parts of the team, that never really worked out. Arthur Moats won a starting outside backer job coming out of training camp, but a few weeks into the season lost the job to rookie Nigel Bradham. Kelvin Sheppard was annointed the starting middle linebacker, but he was a non-factor in most games. Veteran Nick Barnett was probably the most consistent performer on this unit, but his play didn’t really match what he did in previous seasons. The backups include Chris White, mainly a special teamer who didn’t necessarily distinguish himself in that role, and Bryan Scott, who is a hybrid LB/safety. Scott is a 10 year veteran and the new coaching staff would be wise, in my opinion, to get him re-signed, since he has been a consistent playmaker on defense in his entire tenure here. An interesting late-season addition to the LB corps was Greg Lloyd, son of the former Pittsburgh Steeler great. If bloodlines mean anything, he should be given a thorough look-see in training camp in 2013.

Defensive Backs

Other than ball-hawking safety Jairus Byrd, this unit was a major disappointment in 2012. Rookie cornerback Stephon Gilmore looks like he can develop into a star, but honestly, if the old coaching staff had been retained I would’ve doubted if he’d develop at all. Let’s hope new coordinator Pettine can coax a little Darrelle Revis out of him. In rating the rest of the secondary players on the roster, there is mostly disappointment. The other safety, veteran George Wilson, was mostly invisible in 2012, other than a couple of dropped interceptions that cost the team wins. Wilson is a solid citizen and good teammate, but unfortunately has become a poster child for what ails the Bills – a player who tries hard but at the end of the day seems to do just enough to help his team lose. His backup, Da’Norris Searcy, had his moments in 2012 but still seems to need seasoning. Like a lot of young players on the roster, he would show progress, then regress. I really believe that comes down to coaching – getting the players, the young ones in particular, to play consistently. It will be interesting to see what the team does with Terrence McGee, a solid veteran cornerback who just can’t stay healthy. For most of 2012, the starting corner opposite Gilmore was Aaron Williams, another disappointing high draft pick. Williams was toasted constantly by opposing teams early in the year before getting hurt. When he returned to the lineup his play got a little better, probably out of sheer embarrassment, but he still has a lot to prove. The other players who made up the revolving door at corner opposite Gilmore – Ron Brooks, Crezdon Butler, Justin Rogers and free agent-to-be Leodis McKelvin, are a mix of youngsters with varying degrees of potential, none of whom stepped forward and made a claim on the job. McKelvin may or may not be re-signed – how much effort they put into bringing him back may be a clue as to how much the new coaching staff values special teams play.

In part 2 of the Buffalo Bills’ season review, we’ll look at the players, by position, on the offense. In past season reviews of the team, it was a little easier to figure on where the players would fit, or what role they might play, the following year, since the coaching staff remained the same. The new coaching staff of Doug Marrone will be a fresh set of eyes looking at the roster, so some players who played significant roles under Chan Gailey may not be good fits for whatever Marrone’s plans are. In evaluating the roster, my comments are what I feel the new staff should see when they check out the film on the 2012 roster. For the most part, not many of the current players’ jobs are safe, as a new coaching staff usually likes to stock the roster with their own people. There are surely talented players on the team, then again, as a group they have failed to turn the corner and become a consistent winner. Here’s my assessment of the offensive roster:

Quarterbacks

The quarterback who leads the Bills in the Marrone era probably isn’t on the roster yet. It became apparent in 2012 that Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t the answer, even though Gailey probably squeezed all he could get out of him. The problem with Fitzpatrick is that he was never able to correct the penchant he had for turning the ball over. He had his moments where he looked as though the team could win with him. He threw 71 touchdown passes in his 3 years as a starter, compared to the 37 totaled by Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman the 3 seasons prior to him becoming the starter. However, he also threw 54 picks in that time. I wouldn’t have a problem with Fitzpatrick remaining the starter next year until the coaches groom his replacement. I still think he can be a competent starter if the team’s defense improves and if Marrone features a running game in his offense. Backup Tyler Thigpen is most likely through, since he was on the roster mainly due to his allegiance to Gailey. He never showed much anyway, and the third-stringer, Tarvaris Jackson, never had a chance to play at all, and is a free agent, so his return is unlikely also. If the Bills decide to cut ties with Fitzpatrick, there’s a chance they could re-sign Jackson to help groom the new QB. His experience level and career stats are close to Fitzpatrick’s.

Running Backs

Marrone’s top priority has to be to find a way to get emerging star C.J. Spiller more touches, even if it means parting ways with, or reducing the workload of, Fred Jackson. Spiller and Jackson are good complementary backs, as their styles aren’t quite the same. I’ve always thought Jackson’s style resembled that of Thurman Thomas, while Spiller has a touch of O.J. Simpson in him. In 2012, Spiller became the team’s top offensive weapon, while Jackson didn’t exactly shine, battling nagging injuries and fumbling problems. Since Jackson has a contract that pays him like a top back, the Bills may have to let him go and try to find a suitable replacement in the draft. Backup Tashard Choice is another Gailey favorite, but he did the job when called on and should get a fair chance to make the roster. Both fullbacks on the roster, Corey McIntyre and Dorin Dickerson, are free agents, so their return is questionable, although McIntyre has been a valuable special teamer.

Receivers

Stevie Johnson, like Spiller, is a potent offensive weapon that Marrone has to maximize in his plans for 2013. Johnson has put together 3 straight 1,000+ yard receiving seasons and cemented his place as the team’s top pass catcher. What Marrone needs to do is find ways to tone down Stevie’s antics and get his focus on track as far as consistency. He has developed a reputation for making spectacular catches, then mixing in inexplicable drops. The return of David Nelson from injury will improve the receiving corps, but the rest of this group could use an upgrade. T.J. Graham showed some promise, and hopefully a fresh start under the new staff will help him. Ruvell Martin is strictly a special teamer, and backup tight end Lee Smith had his ups and downs, mixing in a few catches with some dumb, costly penalties. Donald Jones and Marcus Easley have had trouble avoiding injuries, and starting tight end Scott Chandler suffered a knee injury late in the year that could keep him sidelined well into the 2013 season, so the receiving corps will likely need some off-season shoring up.

Offensive Line

This unit is one of the team’s strengths, and a top off-season priority has to be re-signing guard Andy Levitre, who is the most consistent, and maybe the toughest, member of the line. The rest of the starters are solid – center Eric Wood, guard Kraig Urbik, and left tackle Cordy Glenn, who has a great upside. Starting right tackle Erik Pears missed a lot of the 2012 season with injuries, and he may be pushed next year by Chris Hairston and Sam Young. As for depth, the Bills have 2012 draft pick Zebrie Sanders returning from injury, along with off-the-street free agents signed late in the year with an eye toward 2013, including David Snow, Thomas Welch, Andrew Jackson, Keith Williams, Chris Scott and Adam Grant. Yeah, I’ve never heard of any of them either, but the Bills have shown a knack for uncovering some gems with their free agent signings so you never know.

The 2012 Buffalo Bills’ season can only be described as disappointing. I didn’t bother reviewing the last couple of games, as the review would have been just beating a dead horse. To their credit, they at least rose to the occasion and gave their loyal home fans a good show in the finale, beating an equally inept Jets team. In part one of this season review, I’ll look at management and coaching. After posting 6-10 records the last 2 years, one of these things has to be true – either Buddy Nix and the scouting staff he has assembled have been drafting terribly, or the coaching staff he brought in has done nothing to help in developing those drafted players.

The Monday after the season ended, owner Ralph Wilson, through his new surrogate Russ Brandon, made what they figure is the right choice of those 2 options when they relieved head coach Chan Gailey of his duties, along with Gailey’s entire staff, while keeping Nix on board as the general manager. It appears that somewhere along the line Nix will turn over those duties to Doug Whaley, his hand-picked successor, so Nix’s input into future decisions may be minimized. Nix has been mostly responsible for assembling the team’s talent through the college draft, while Whaley’s responsibilities have been in the pro scouting area. That means Nix should be accountable for passing on players like Rob Gronkowski (plus about 5 other players currently starting in New England), Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb and Golden Tate while picking players like Torell Troup, Aaron Williams and T.J. Graham. If pro scouting is Whaley’s area, then he gets the credit for bringing in gems like Scott Chandler, Kraig Urbik, Erik Pears and Kyle Moore. That tells me that the transition from Nix to Whaley can’t come soon enough. That being said, if Nix gets the blame for passing on some good players, he also gets the credit for bringing in C.J. Spiller, Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore, Chris Hairston and Alex Carrington, who have at least made some contributions.

As for the coaches, it’s a moot point to comment on them, since the entire staff has been replaced. Let’s face it, after 3 straight losing seasons and no progress at all to show for it, cleaning house was the right move. Chan Gailey was a nice enough guy, and his tenure had some positive points –  the team played hard for him, he got all he could out of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and he laid down the law when it was necessary (remember the benching of Stevie Johnson in the 2011 finale?). However, he turned out to be another in a long line of coaches who are outstanding coordinators but don’t have the skills to be an effective head coach. His post-game comments that “the team wasn’t ready to play and I’m responsible for that” got old, and it became obvious he just didn’t have the answers. His decision to promote Dave Wannstedt to defensive coordinator was a disaster, as the defense looked totally clueless most of the year. Wannstedt stubbornly refused to change his passive approach, rarely blitzing or doing anything creative to help his unit. The passive approach was especially maddening when you consider that the Bills faced a lot of young QBs this year. The new head coach, Doug Marrone, will now have to figure out whether some of the highly-drafted defensive players who’ve had little impact – Marcell Dareus, Gilmore, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Nigel Bradham – are just average players or have more to offer that just was never brought out by Gailey or Wannstedt.

Picking 9 winners and 7 losers last weekend added up to another week of mediocrity for Rayonsports.com in picking NFL games. The season record now stands at 114 correct picks and 65 incorrect. Here are my choices for week 15:

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – although the Eagles are out of playoff contention and rumors are flying that coach Andy Reid is finished, they will play Cincy tough. The Bengals need the game badly, however, and I’ll pick them to win.

Seattle vs. Buffalo (at Toronto)  – the Bills’ defense has been stopping the run well lately, and will be highly motivated to shut down former teammate Marshawn Lynch. Still, the Seahawks are peaking at just the right time, and rookie QB Russell Wilson will do just enough to give Seattle a close victory.

New York Giants at Atlanta – December is the time of year when the Giants come alive, and I expect them to pull out a hard-fought win over the Falcons on the road.

Denver at Baltimore – these clubs could meet in the playoffs, and at this point the Broncos are playing more consistent football. I’ll give them the nod and pick them to win over the Ravens here.

Green Bay at Chicago – pretty much the Bears’ last stand as far as playoff contention is concerned, and I don’t feel that they have enough left to overcome a solid Packer team. Green Bay wins.

Washington at Cleveland – the Redskins have been on an amazing run to stay in the NFC playoff hunt, but will hit a bump in the road here as the surging Browns pull the upset.

Indianapolis at Houston – the Texans were exposed on Monday night by New England and could be reeling going into this important AFC South matchup, but I see them regrouping and beating the Colts at home as Wade Phillips’ defense slows down young Andrew Luck.

Jacksonville at Miami – this is the Jaguars’ third straight game against an AFC East foe, and will result in their third straight loss as Miami wins big.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – these two NFC South teams have faltered lately, and neither has much chance of qualifying for the playoffs. To me, the Saints are just a better football team and will win this game at home.

Minnesota at St. Louis – at the start of the season, whoever figured this would be a game with playoff implications for both of these teams? I’ll go with the Rams to win at home.

Detroit at Arizona – both of these teams have been big disappointments this season, but the Lions are still competitive, while the Cardinals are a total train wreck. Detroit wins on the road.

Carolina at San Diego – if the Chargers can knock off Pittsburgh on the road, they can surely beat the Panthers at home. Then again, they ARE the Chargers. This will be a high-scoring game, and I’ll pick San Diego to win.

Pittsburgh at Dallas – the Cowboys have impressed me enough with their staying power in the playoff race that I’ll go with them to defeat the Steelers at home in a game both teams need badly.

Kansas City at Oakland – it’s really a shame how far these two former AFL rivals have fallen. The game means nothing, and picking a winner is tough, but I’ll go with the Raiders to win at home even though I have a feeling they’ve packed it in for the year.

San Francisco at New England – this is truly a possible Super Bowl preview, and a classic battle between the Niners’ defense and Patriots’ potent offense. The fact is that New England has vastly improved on defense also, enough so that they’ll knock off Jim Harbaugh’s squad at home.

New York Jets at Tennessee – it’s the Monday night spotlight so these 2 underachieving clubs will be trying to put out their best effort. The Jets just haven’t been able to mount much of an attack this year, so I’ll pick the Titans to win.