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The fourth and final section of the Buffalo Bills’ 2013 season review takes a look at the needs the team’s management has to try to fill for 2014, and some ideas on how they can fill those needs, through the draft, trades and free agency. Last year, I mentioned that their biggest priority needed to be re-signing their own potential free agents – Andy Levitre and Jairus Byrd. They didn’t manage to get either one signed, losing Levitre and putting the franchise tag on Byrd. Now they still have to try to keep Byrd in the fold, while their most important player to retain from this year’s free agents is probably kicker Dan Carpenter, who had a great year. Here is a look at the positions of greatest need that the Bills have, and what options they have to fill those needs:

Offensive Line

The Bills were extremely lucky not to have any major injuries on the line in 2013, but they can’t expect to be that lucky next season, so they definitely need to address the depth issue here. If they should happen to decide to dive into the free agent market for O-line help, one of the most interesting prospects is center Alex Mack of Cleveland. He has comparable abilities to Buffalo’s Eric Wood, and if they were to sign Mack, one of the two would be facing a position change to guard. Maybe neither of them would be thrilled to do that, but it would certainly upgrade the Bills’ line. If the team decides to draft a lineman with their first round pick (ninth overall), a top prospect is Texas A&M guard Jake Matthews, son of Hall of Fame offensive lineman Bruce Matthews. He played alongside Luke Joeckel, a first round choice last year, and supposedly when  5 NFL scouts were asked last year who was the better player, 2 of the 5 picked Matthews. If they choose to wait until the second round to address the line, a couple of good players who should be available are  Cyril Richardson, a guard from Baylor (although some scouts feel he is overrated)  and Gabe Jackson, a guard from Mississippi State who some regard as the best offensive lineman in the SEC.

Tight End

Coach Doug Marrone hasn’t said as much, but signs point to the club looking to upgrade this position. If the Bills decide to use the ninth pick on a tight end, the best available is Eric Ebron from North Carolina, a stud who is projected to be the first at his position to be drafted in 2014. His upside is his tremendous athletic ability – he made some unbelievable catches in his college career. His downside is he isn’t always consistent and has shown a penchant for dropping balls. A better option may be to wait a couple rounds and pick Texas Tech’s Jace Amaro. The best free agent TE available is New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham, a Pro Bowler. It’s hard to imagine the Saints not getting him re-signed, but they do have salary cap issues. It’s also hard to imagine him signing with the Bills, but then again no one ever expected Mario Williams to sign here either.

Receivers

With possibly 5 of the top 8 teams picking in the draft looking for quarterbacks, the Bills could have an outstanding wide receiver prospect drop into their lap at pick number nine. Sammy Watkins of Clemson is the best athlete of the receivers, and could develop into the top playmaker of this year’s available crop of receivers.  Mike Evans, who caught passes from Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M, is a big (6’5) receiver who would fit the team’s need for a red zone playmaker. Robert Woods’ old teammate at USC, Marquise Lee, could also be available, as well as another big receiver who just declared for the draft, 6’5 Kelvin Benjamin from national champion Florida State. There aren’t really any veteran free agent receivers available who would be an improvement over the players already on the Buffalo roster.

Linebacker

  If there is one veteran free agent linebacker out there who would be a good fit for the Bills’ defense, it’s  Darryl Smith of the Baltimore Ravens, an inside backer who signed on with the Ravens last year from Jacksonville, for one year only, and wound up doing an admirable job replacing Ray Lewis after he retired. Among draft prospects, UCLA’s Anthony Barr is a great prospect with NFL bloodlines (his father and 2 uncles played in the league). To me, an intriguing prospect who should be available at number nine is local product Khalil Mack from the University of Buffalo. He is much more than just a local favorite, as he has been rated a top ten prospect in the draft by some scouts. He is tall and rangy and great in pass coverage, pass rushing as an outside backer and a strong run defender. His skill set is a lot like current Buffalo rookie Kiko Alonso, and pairing those two against opposing offenses that in today’s game feature mobile quarterbacks, slot receivers and tight ends that run like wide receivers would vastly improve the team on that side of the ball. The defenses that ultimately challenge the modern-day offenses will have to feature quick, rangy players at linebacker who can cover and also aren’t afraid to stick their noses into the action against the run. Alonso is that type of player, and Mack should develop into the same type of player.

Part 3 of the Bills’ 2013 season review will take a look at the current roster of defensive players. I thought it would be interesting to look back on part of a statement I made in regards to the job Dave Wannstedt did as coordinator of the Bills’ defense in 2012:

” It just looked to me like the players were put in positions that appeared to make them robotic, and not instinctive. I really believe the players on the defensive side are mostly gamers who play hard, but they really underachieved as a unit in 2012. It will be a tough job for the new coaching staff to sort out what they have on defense and try to forge a respectable unit in 2013.”

Well, they weren’t the Steel Curtain, but new coordinator Mike Pettine’s defensive unit certainly was markedly improved, and much more aggressive, than what Wannstedt put on the field. There’s still a lot of room for improvement, but in only one season the unit appears poised to become a strength of the team, rather than a liability. Here is a position-by-position analysis of the Bills’ defense:

Defensive Linemen

The new more aggressive defensive scheme rejuvenated the players on this unit. Mario Williams and Kyle Williams had career years, while Marcell Dareus came into his own and became the player the team thought they were getting when they drafted him high a couple years ago.  The Bills had three D-linemen with double-digit sack totals, if you include Jerry Hughes, who is listed on the roster as a lineman but plays more of an outside linebacker role. Dareus also added 7.5 sacks, a tremendous total for an interior lineman. The loss of Alex Carrington to injury early in the year was a blow, but his replacement, Alan Branch, filled in well enough to get a contract extension from the team. Two free agents picked off the waiver wire the last couple years, Corbin Bryant and Stefan Charles, looked good in reserve roles, especially Charles, who made plays in limited playing time after joining the club late in the year. The team signed a future prospect near the end of the season named Ikponmwosa Igbinosun. Good luck to the game broadcast announcers if he makes the team.

Linebackers

The gem at this position in 2013 was rookie second round draft pick Kiko Alonso, who played at a Pro Bowl level for most of the year and will undoubtedly be one of the major building blocks for the future. Free agent signee Manny Lawson played pretty well at one outside linebacker spot and Arthur Moats and Nigel Bradham shared time on the other. Neither had much of an impact, although Moats is a contributor on special teams. Another mid-season addition to the roster, Ty Powell, is the only other LB on the roster at this point, so this should be an area the team targets in the draft and/or free agency to try to upgrade. With the studs the Bills line up with on their defensive line, the linebackers should be the guys roaming the field making plays, and out of the current group only Alonso seemed to be doing it. Adding some playmakers here would also hopefully help cut down on the defense’s penchant for giving up huge chunks of yardage in the running game.

Defensive Backs

If they can get star safety Jairus Byrd re-signed, the Bills will have a deep, solid group in the secondary. Pairing Byrd with Aaron Williams at the starting safety spots would give the team one of the top safety tandems in the NFL. Williams, who struggled in his first couple of years at cornerback, was a revelation after being moved to safety, and only got better as the season wore on, becoming a real leader on the defense. Jim Leonhard and Da’Norris Searcy provided depth at the position and both made plays in their limited opportunities also. Two promising rookies, Duke Williams and Jonathan Meeks, are waiting in the wings for their shots also, although they mostly played on special teams this year. At cornerback, Stephon Gilmore struggled early on after coming back from a wrist injury, but his play improved by leaps and bounds late in the year. Leodis McKelvin was the most consistent performer overall, and with undrafted rookie Nickell Robey forcing his way into major playing time with some huge plays, the team looks solid at the corners and in their nickel packages. Ron Brooks played well on special teams and showed some ability as a corner also, so there’s a good amount of depth there as well. It would help if the team’s defensive backfield position coaches worked with these guys on their ball skills, as they still seem to find themselves in the perfect position in coverage, only to look lost and get beaten when the ball arrives.   Granted, in today’s pass-happy NFL, it’s a league-wide problem, but the team that can build a dominating defense that stops the run and snuffs out opposing passing games will get the edge on the rest of the league. Although at this point they’re certainly not a dominating or even a “physical” defense, the Bills are right on the cusp of being able to do that, as long as they work to get better and not settle for the status quo.

Part 2 of the Buffalo Bills’ 2013 season review focuses on the players on the offensive unit. Statistically, the offense may have been more productive in previous years with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. There was little doubt, however, following the 2012 season, that Buffalo needed to make a change at the sport’s most important position. The club finally pinpointed their “quarterback of the future” in the 2013 draft, and EJ Manuel showed some signs that he was the right choice. In order for the offense to become a productive unit in 2014, one thing has to be a major point of emphasis for coach Doug Marrone and his staff – stability at the QB position. They have to find a way to keep Manuel on the field so he can continue in his development in the offense. Here’s my assessment of the offensive roster:

Quarterbacks

Three different injuries caused Manuel to miss valuable time on the field this season, and that’s a shame because it means he will still be learning things in 2014 that should already be ingrained. When he did play, Manuel was mostly unspectacular, but the good things about his play were that, other than a couple of games, he avoided making big mistakes, and showed good athletic ability with his feet, adding a dimension to the position the Bills have never had before. The main goal of the coaching staff should be to develop consistency in Manuel’s game. If he maintains the ability to consistently avoid turnovers while eventually gaining the confidence to make big plays in the passing game, the Bills will be rewarded with a guy they can turn the franchise around with. As for backups, Thad Lewis made great strides here after being acquired right before the season from Detroit. He worked his way into the starting job when Manuel was hurt and won the support and confidence of his teammates. He did enough to be given a full shot at keeping the backup job next year, but the club shouldn’t hesitate to try to upgrade the spot if possible. Jeff Tuel looks like a decent development project to keep on the roster. Injury-prone veteran Kevin Kolb has most likely seen his final days with the team.

Running Backs

The running game was the strength of the Bills’ attack this year, but could also focus on maintaining consistency. This was supposed to be the year the major load was transferred from Fred Jackson to C.J. Spiller, but Spiller was hampered by injury a lot and Jackson had the better year. Both players complement each other well, and it’s a shame that two backs as talented as they are have had to labor on a losing team for so long. The team cut ties with an old Chan Gailey favorite, Tashard Choice, during the season, so young Ronnie Wingo, if he’s brought back, will have a shot at winning a role in training camp next year. The Bills completely turned over the fullback position in 2013, with undrafted free agent Frank Summers doing a good job as a blocker, as well as a runner and receiver in the few chances he had in those roles. Evan Rodriguez was signed in-season and got some major playing time. He appears to be a decent blocker also, and hopefully will help improve the team’s dismal kick coverage teams.

Receivers

Like the quarterback position, the receiving unit underwent a major makeover in 2013 also. At wide receiver, the one mainstay was Stevie Johnson, a talented but inconsistent player whose 2013 season ended on a low note, as he missed the final 2 games because of the death of his mother. Johnson has been a flamboyant presence in his time with the team, but overall has been a solid citizen and well-respected teammate, so hopefully he returns in 2014. His unconventional knack for getting open can make him an asset to Buffalo’s passing game. He just needs to work on two things – improving his hands so he cuts down on his drops, and developing some chemistry with Manuel. T.J. Graham was invisible in the offense save for a few flashes once in awhile this year, so he needs to majorly step up his game in 2014 to stay on the roster. The team’s two prize draft choices at the position – Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin – are definitely keepers. Although their production was predictably spotty as rookies, they played with confidence and made plays when their number was called. Goodwin’s track star speed makes him an especially exciting prospect, although he showed all year, with athletic ability and toughness, that he’s a football player, not just a track runner. Woods, on the other hand, appears to be a great route runner who’ll develop into a reliable “possession” receiver in the Bob Chandler/Frank Lewis mold. Marcus Easley and Kevin Hogan, two backup receivers, have mostly made their mark on special teams. The Bills could use a big wideout who can win “jump ball” battles with defenders in the red zone, and signed a couple of future players to the roster who are interesting prospects – 6’4 Cordell Roberson and 6’5 Brandon Kaufman, who was a late cut at the end of training camp in 2013. The Bills enter the off-season with four tight ends on their roster, and their late-season signing of veteran Tony Moeaki could be a sign that they’re looking to upgrade from starter Scott Chandler, a decent player who had his share of ups and downs this year. Veteran Lee Smith is used almost exclusively as a blocker, and has been penalty-prone in his few opportunities. Rookie Chris Gragg earned some playing time late in the year, and has potential but like a lot of young players on the roster, needs to work harder at stepping up his game if he wants to make a bigger contribution next season.

Offensive Line

The offensive line had an inconsistent season, but amazingly stayed healthy all year as a unit. In fact, after Colin Brown was cut and replaced at guard by Doug Legursky, they started together as a unit for every game. The Bills had one of the NFL’s top rushing attacks and protected the passer fairly well, so their solid starting five of center Eric Wood, Legursky and fellow guard Kraig Urbik and tackles Cordy Glenn and Erik Pears can be considered a strength of the team. Wood and Glenn would probably be getting Pro Bowl consideration if they played for a contending team. Mirroring the rest of the team, however, the line’s performances were inconsistent, as they were fairly solid at home but struggled on the road – at times leaving their quarterback running for his life, and at others getting called for ill-timed penalties that killed drives. The club brought in various prospects, including Antoine McClain, Mark Asper, J.J. ‘Unga and Jamaal Johnson-Webb, in an attempt to add some depth here, since any injury problems next year would severely weaken the unit. Look for the Bills to draft some linemen also, maybe even using a high pick or two.

The first segment of my annual Buffalo Bills’ postseason review deals with the front office and coaching staff. The team underwent a total transition in these areas following the 2012 season, which ended in a second consecutive 6-10 record under Chan Gailey. Owner Ralph Wilson Jr. turned over operations of the franchise to Russ Brandon, who in turn hired Doug Marrone away from Syracuse to be the team’s new head coach. After overseeing the college draft, GM Buddy Nix stepped aside and his understudy, Doug Whaley, was promoted into the position. Whoever was responsible for the 2013 draft deserves, at least initially, kudos for coming up with some very promising players. Most of their picks made contributions as the season went on, and although overall the play of the rookies was inconsistent, the expectation should be that they’ll progress as they gain experience and be productive members of the club moving into the future. Five free agents who were signed by the team – kicker Dan Carpenter, Manny Lawson, Alan Branch, Doug Legursky and Stefan Charles – played significant roles in 2013, as did a pair of players acquired in trades – QB Thad Lewis and LB Jerry Hughes. Getting Hughes in exchange for Kelvin Sheppard was a steal. Overall, the front office succeeded in upgrading the roster, even though the team’s final record was exactly the same as Gailey’s last 2 years.

That brings us to the coaching staff. Marrone deserves credit for assembling a competent staff, most notably his hiring of Mike Pettine as defensive coordinator. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett drew a lot of criticism from fans for his play-calling, but I didn’t have a problem with it, other than the fact that the team maybe ran too many off-tackle runs on early downs. That was probably a product of the team not having much stability at the quarterback position. Hackett had to tailor game plans for three different signal-callers during the season, none of which had much game experience. One weak spot on this team was its’ special teams. Having excellent bomb squads has always been a hallmark of the Buffalo franchise, and this year’s units were dismal. Poor kickoff and punt coverage played major roles in a couple of losses. Danny Crossman, the special teams coach, had a pretty mediocre resume when he was hired, and his units lived up (or down) to that resume. With six NFL coaches and their staffs having been fired since the season ended, it would be a good idea if Marrone looked to find a better option to coach the special teams in 2014. As for Marrone himself, the general consensus is that even though the Bills struggled to another 6-10 finish, that the season had a different “feel”. That’s partly true, but in my opinion, that “feeling” began to fade as the year went on. The Bills eventually regressed to their usual losing ways. Some of the rookies who started out impressively seemed to hit that rookie wall, and their play wasn’t the same. The coaches preached about the need to develop consistency. Well, they were certainly consistent when it came to committing silly penalties at the worst times, and giving up big plays at crunch time when games were on the line, especially on the road. Consider that on the season’s final Sunday, the Bills jumped offsides on a field goal attempt to hand their opponent a touchdown instead, and committed personal fouls on the same play to rack up 30 yards in penalty yardage, on one play. The fact that they had to suspend Marcell Dareus for 2 consecutive games for habitual tardiness is troubling also. Through 17 weeks, a head coach should have had enough time to get a handle on his team. Marrone has already stated that the team needs to focus on structure and discipline, and he has always seemed determined to fix the problems the team has, always talked about “working harder” to get better.  If he is going to separate himself from his predecessors, who also talked about working harder to fix things, he will have to follow his mantra that he had posted on a sign in the team’s practice facility: “Don’t confuse effort with results.”

Another disappointing Buffalo Bills season came to an end on Sunday, the fourteenth consecutive year that ended with the team missing the NFL playoffs. The New England Patriots, who needed the win to secure a first round playoff bye, won easily 34-20. Here are my main thoughts as far as what to take out of another one-sided loss by Buffalo to their AFC East nemesis:

* The loss gave the Bills a 6-10 record for the season – the exact mark Chan Gailey managed in his last 2 seasons coaching the team. One season isn’t long enough to make an assessment of Doug Marrone, but a couple of things are clear. One hope fans have if a team can’t have a winning season is that they at least show progress and growth as the year goes on. Marrone’s Bills looked pretty much the same in the season-ending defeat as they have all year. They play hard but make mind-boggling mistakes at crucial times in games. Marcell Dareus, not Marrone, jumped offsides on the late-game field goal attempt that handed New England a first down. He also didn’t take consecutive unsportsmanlike conduct penalties to give the Pats a free 30 yards on one of their late drives. But Marrone, as the head coach, is responsible for coaching these mistake-prone players to be disciplined and not give gifts to their opponents. They did it all season in their losses and the problem, going into the off-season, is still not corrected. The “losing culture” mentality that Marrone keeps talking about changing is still firmly intact.

* LeGarrette Blount took his turn as the obscure back that the Bills turned into a superstar. He gained over 300 yards on runs and kickoff returns. It was very discouraging to watch Buffalo players, on both defense and the kickoff coverage team, show little interest in tackling the big New England back all day long.

*The Patriots seemed to spend much of the game toying with the Bills. Buffalo managed to keep the score respectable, but it never appeared to me that they were really ever going to seriously threaten to overtake the Pats.

* The Bills will be sending 3 players from their defense to the Pro Bowl, and 2 others (Dareus and Kiko Alonso) could still be added to the game if injuries and players going on to the Super Bowl open up spots. Yet that unit has major problems stopping the run and was gashed for big plays on Sunday, repeating a pattern that’s been in place all year. Without a doubt, the team is a totally different unit on the road than at home, supposedly a trait of “young” teams. Realistically, other than Alonso and maybe Stephon Gilmore, is the Buffalo defense young?

* One good thing about Buffalo closing out the year with another demoralizing loss – there won’t be any kidding themselves about how far off they are from being able to truly compete with a franchise like New England. When it comes to decisions about which players to try to build a future with and which to discard, there really aren’t many they can do without.

The Buffalo Bills turned their home season finale against the rival Miami Dolphins into an excellent Christmas present for their fans. Combining their best defensive effort of the year with a workmanlike offensive showing, the Bills shut out a Miami club with playoff aspirations, 19-0. With starting quarterback EJ Manuel out with a knee injury, backup Thad Lewis stepped in and engineered a win over the Dolphins for the second time this season. Buffalo’s running game has been a staple of their successful outings this year, and Sunday’s game was no exception. Fred Jackson ran for 111 yards and the game’s only touchdown, while C.J. Spiller added 77, plus another 26 through the air, for a combined 103 yards that matched Miami’s total output for the game. Lewis led some impressive drives, most of which resulted in field goals, but with the way the club’s defense was playing, it was a good decision by coach Doug Marrone to play it conservatively and build up an insurmountable lead with kicker Dan Carpenter’s reliable leg. With Stevie Johnson out, Lewis did a good job of spreading the ball around to his entire receiving corps. Robert Woods had another fine game before being ejected for fighting in the fourth quarter. T.J. Graham, Chris Hogan and tight ends Scott Chandler and Lee Smith all made plays also.

The story of the game, however, was the defense. Coordinator Mike Pettine had a great game plan, and his unit executed it perfectly. They were aggressive all day, harassing QBs Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore from start to finish. With seven sacks, the team broke the franchise record for sacks in a season. They also had two interceptions of Moore during short stints when he replaced Tannehill because of injuries. The Bills were sending blitzers from everywhere, as rookie cornerback Nickell Robey registered a pair of sacks. Kyle Williams also had two, while the other three came from Jerry Hughes, Mario Williams and Da’Norris Searcy. Leodis McKelvin and Jim Leonhard had the picks. Overall, the entire defense had a great day, with contributions coming from the whole unit. Miami managed to gain only the paltry 103 total yards, picking up only six first downs all day. Buffalo’s third down defense, a problem in some of their losses this year, allowed only 2 of 14 conversions, a 14% conversion rate. The Bills close out the season in New England, with a chance to put a crimp in the Patriots’ playoff seeding. A win would be a big deal for the Bills, a team looking to show some progress, to distance themselves from the mediocre Bills’ teams of recent years. It would put their final record at 7-9, a tangible improvement over their back-to-back 6-10 finishes under Chan Gailey.

Sunday’s NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars wasn’t exactly a clash of the titans. It looked pretty much like what it was – a not-so-well played game between two of the league’s struggling teams. The Bills held on to grab a much-needed win, rookie QB EJ Manuel’s first road victory in his short career. Manuel started out the game looking like he did last week in Tampa, when Buffalo as a team laid an enormous egg. He misfired on his first four pass attempts, and threw a screen pass directly into the hands of Jaguar linebacker Geno Hayes. To his credit, Manuel recovered, and threw a pair of touchdown passes and ran for another to lead a 27-20 win. Offensively, the Bills’ game plan followed the script that has worked in all of their good efforts this year – Manuel was unspectacular but managed the game well enough, the running game did nothing spectacular either, but racked up 200 yards, with both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller contributing.  Rookie receiver  Robert Woods played his best game yet, catching 5 passes for 80+ yards and a touchdown. The defense came up with big plays. Aaron Williams was a sparkplug, with an early interception and a great hustle play when he ran down Denard Robinson and forced a fumble as the Jacksonville back was about to cross the goal line, causing a touchback to kill a drive. Five different defenders had sacks, including rookie corner Nickell Robey, who also forced and recovered a fumble. Stephon Gilmore played another decent game, and had a pick for the second straight week, this one squelching a potential game-tying drive in the closing minutes.

There were a lot of mistakes on both sides, turnovers and penalties, and fortunately for Buffalo the Jaguars made more. There were a lot of negative plays by the Bills that were masked by the jubilation of them actually winning a road game. Manuel’s early struggles were disheartening, and the offensive line was victimized by penalties for the second week in a row. Despite causing enough turnovers to pull out the win, the Bills’ defensive effort left a lot to be desired. The Jaguars were missing four offensive starters, yet they allowed another unknown backup, Jordan Todman, to rush for over 100 yards. His career total prior to Sunday was 30. They couldn’t get off the field on third and long situations again, and gave up too many big plays. And once again, they couldn’t seem to stand prosperity, allowing a 20-10 halftime lead to erode into a 20-20 tie before rallying for the win. But, in the end, they DID rally for the win, an important stepping stone for them. Coach Doug Marrone proclaimed afterward, “I’m extremely proud of this team.” And he should be. The bar hasn’t been set very high for this team as the season has progressed, but at least they are competing. The Bills, by virtue of Miami’s upset win over New England on Sunday, now find themselves thrust into the middle of both the AFC East and AFC playoff races, even though they are eliminated. They close out the season at home against the Dolphins and on the road at New England, so they’ll have a big say on the playoff chances of those two teams.