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The Buffalo Bills enter the 2016 season under heavy scrutiny from their fan base after finishing a disappointing 8-8 in Rex Ryan’s first season as head coach. Ryan had boasted, basically guaranteed, that his team would make the playoffs last year, and he didn’t deliver on the promise. With contributions from co-writer Josh Pohlman, here is my Bills’ season preview for 2016:

Front Office / Coaching

Doug Whaley has managed to draft some serviceable players in his time as GM of the Bills, but the club suffered some off-season losses this year as Karlos Williams first showed up out of shape, then was suspended by the league for substance abuse, eventually being cut. Also, the team’s two top draft picks, Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland, were lost to injury leaving a gaping hole in the defense as both were being counted on to fill starting roles. Rex Ryan needs to go into this season with a lot less bombast and a lot more coaching acumen, in order to avoid another lost year. He added a pair of big names to his staff – his twin brother Rob to help revive what was a disappointing defense, and former All Pro safety Ed Reed, who will work with the defensive backs. Two things need to happen for the Bills to fulfill their playoff dream. First, the offense, with Tyrod Taylor now firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback and Greg Roman going into year two as the coordinator, must take a giant leap forward. Secondly, and more importantly, the team has to develop some semblance of discipline and avoid taking silly penalties.

The Buffalo Bills entered the final day of the NFL draft with some holes left to fill on their roster, with four picks left to use to accomplish that. They entered the draft with a pair of fourth round choices but used one of those in a package they sent to the Chicago Bears in order to move up in round two to get Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland. The other fourth rounder, a compensatory pick which was the final one of the round, was used to fill one of their remaining needs. GM Doug Whaley picked an interesting backup quarterback prospect, Cardale Jones from Ohio State. His college career was up and down – in his freshman season, after injuries decimated the Buckeyes’ QB roster, he came in and led the team to the national championship. Then he came back the following year and was wildly inconsistent, eventually losing his starting job. A massive physical specimen at 6’5 and 253 lbs., his powerful arm earned him the nickname “12 Gauge” and there aren’t any scouts who question his arm strength. His negatives mostly center around an inability to read defenses, which won’t sit well with Bills’ fans. Still, being a long term developmental project, his upside is exciting if he works hard to improve his game and turns out to be coachable. His size may intrigue offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who used EJ Manuel as a runner in some third down short yardage packages last season.

Cardale Jones (QB, Ohio State)

The Bills pulled a minor surprise in the fifth round when they added to what is already a strong running back group by picking Arkansas runner Jonathan Williams. Williams is a shifty back who dropped in the draft because he missed the 2015 season due to a foot injury. He had a brilliant 2014 season as a member of a Razorback “committee” approach to the running game, a role he’ll probably have to play if he sticks on the Bills’ roster. He did have some issues with fumbling, another trait that will draw the ire of Buffalo fans.

Jonathan Williams (RB, Arkansas)

With the first of their two sixth round picks, the Bills took a flyer on a position that also needs some additional help when they drafted a speedy wide receiver, Kolby Listenbee of Texas Christian. He is considered a one-dimensional prospect, but that dimension is his ability to stretch the defense by making big plays down the field using his speed. He was overshadowed in college by his more heralded teammate, Washington first round pick Josh Doctson, but is a player with enough ability to make the Bills roster and contribute in the passing game, despite being a low round pick. His negatives include being a thin, wiry receiver who needs to bulk up and his inability to block downfield on screen passes or in the running game, a skill valued highly in the NFL.

Kolby Listenbee (WR, T.C.U.)

The second of the two sixth round picks by the Bills, and their final choice since they had previously traded away their seventh rounder, turned out to be Southern Cal cornerback Kevon Seymour, another player whose 2015 season was dogged by injury but who has the potential to make the squad. He has great speed and excels on special teams, and his best shot at sticking with the Bills will probably be as a member of the bomb squads. One of the Bills “gunners” on kick coverage, Ron Brooks, left in free agency so there’s an opening there for Seymour. Bills’ GM Whaley has said he likes to add a corner in each draft, and was true to his word with this pick.

Kevon Seymour (CB, Southern Cal)

Like the rest of the NFL, the Bills scrambled to add undrafted free agents once the seven rounds were completed, and their list includes some interesting prospects. Glenn Gronkowski, fullback from Kansas State and a brother of the star New England tight end, signed with his hometown team, as did former University at Buffalo quarterback Joe Licata. They added a linebacker with an appropriate name, Eric Striker from Oklahoma. There will be competition for special teams jobs in training camp also, as Buffalo added a long snapper, Reid Ferguson of LSU, and a placekicker to compete with Dan Carpenter in Georgia’s Marshall Morgan. There were a number of offensive linemen and receivers added, but what sticks out like a sore thumb on the list is the lack of any safeties, a perceived position of need that they also failed to address in the draft.

The Buffalo Bills made a move on Friday night to improve their position in the second round of the NFL draft, trading 4th round choices this year and next to swap second round picks with the Chicago Bears. The trade moved them up from # 49 to # 41, and they proceeded to pick another likely starter for their defensive unit, inside linebacker Reggie Ragland from national champion Alabama. Ragland was widely perceived to be a first round talent, but like a few of his Crimson Tide teammates, he slid into the draft’s second day.  In Ragland’s case, a report surfaced that he had a medical issue with an enlarged aorta, which scared some teams off. He will bring a physical presence to the Bills’ defense, and should help the team stop the run as a sideline to sideline ‘backer who thrives on contact with opposing ballcarriers. Ragland finds himself in a similar position as first round pick Shaq Lawson, with a position waiting for him due to a free agent departure. With veteran Nigel Bradham leaving to rejoin Jim Schwartz in Philadelphia, there’s an inside linebacker spot open for the ‘Bama thumper to slide into in 2016.

 Reggie Ragland (LB, Alabama)

In the third round, Buffalo selected a player that a lot of “mock drafts” had going to them in the second round – Ohio State defensive tackle Adolphus Washington. One of the analysts on the NFL Network’s coverage of the draft was the big lineman’s college coach, Urban Meyer, who described his player as “a defensive tackle body with defensive end skills”, meaning he has a rare combination of power and speed that will allow Bills’ coach Rex Ryan to use him anywhere along the line in his defensive line rotation. With the subtractions of Mario Williams and Stefan Charles from the roster going into 2016, the additions of Washington and top pick Shaq Lawson allow Ryan and his brother Rob to infuse some new blood into that rotation, with added versatility from those players.

Adolphus Washington (DT, Ohio State)

In past years, Rayonsports.com has waited until after the NFL draft is complete to post a summary of the Buffalo Bills’ picks, but this year, we’ll publish on each day of the draft, looking at the team’s choices that day. We begin tonight with the club’s opening round pick, Clemson defensive end/linebacker/edge rusher Shaq Lawson. Bills’ coach Rex Ryan has a definite Clemson connection, as his son Seth plays for the Tigers. With veteran Mario Williams released and on to Miami, Lawson fills an immediate need for the team in its’ front seven. According to most scouting reports, Lawson is comfortable playing in space or with his hand in the ground, which means he will be willing and able to do what Mario was apparently unwilling to do last season. There is a possibility that Lawson has a shoulder injury that may require surgery, but Ryan and general manager Doug Whaley must be comfortable with the fact that Lawson will be available to play when the 2016 season begins. Lawson, in fact, was supposed to not play at all in a bowl game due to an injury while at Clemson, but wound up not only playing but recording two sacks in the game.  That’s the kind of toughness the Bills need to re-instill in their defense next year.

Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson)

The NFL’s annual college draft has become a national event, and predicting the choices of each team in the league, the analysts’ and experts’ “mock drafts”, has become a cottage industry.  Rayonsports.com will join the fun this year for the first time. Even though the possibility of trades exists, our picks will be chosen considering only each team remaining in their current spot. NOTE: Since this original post was made, the top 2 picks were indeed traded. Here is our mock draft for the first round of April’s draft:

1. Tennessee Titans – Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss. The Titans would like to improve their secondary and will reportedly consider trading down, within the top ten picks, to get that player. However, we figure that move could be risky, and that the team will stay put and pick Tunsil to add another piece to their O-line to protect their franchise QB, Marcus Mariota.
2. Cleveland Browns – Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State. The Browns just signed Robert Griffin III so drafting a signal caller might seem like a bad idea, but this franchise needs to finally hit a home run on a franchise QB, and Wentz looks like the real deal.
3. San Diego Chargers – Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State. The Chargers need secondary help in a big way. They were already weak there, and then lost safety Eric Weddle in free agency. Ramsey is a versatile playmaker who can slide in at either safety or cornerback, just the type of player San Diego needs.
4. Dallas Cowboys – Joey Bosa, LB, Ohio State. Many experts see Jerry Jones picking a future QB here, but our opinion is that he’s committed to Tony Romo, and will use the choice to shore up the team’s defense. Bosa is considered a “safe” pick by some analysts, and a possible underachiever in the NFL by others.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Myles Jack, LB, UCLA. The Jags dove in big in free agency for defensive help. They signed Malik Jackson away from Denver to help the D-line, and Tashaun Gipson from the Browns for the secondary, so it makes sense that they’d use this pick to help the linebacking corps. Jack’s stock has risen recently among the experts.
6. Baltimore Ravens – Vernon Hargreaves III, DB, Florida. The Ravens may have other needs, but the feeling here is they will grab Hargreaves if he drops this far to put a future lockdown corner in their secondary.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Jared Goff, QB, California. This pick seems likely with Chip Kelly now coaching the Niners. Also, if the pick is made, look for a draft day trade that ships Colin Kaepernick out of the Bay City.
8. Philadelphia Eagles – Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss. New coach Doug Pederson needs to add some explosive weapons to his offense, and Treadwell is the best of a weak receiver class in this draft, possibly the only one who deserves to be a top ten pick.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Shaq Lawson, LB, Clemson. Although new head coach Dirk Koetter has an offensive background, we see the Bucs drafting Lawson to team with playmaking veteran Lavonte David on their linebacking corps.
10. New York Giants – Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame. The Giants needed defensive help, and addressed that by spending big on defense in free agency. The guess here is that if Stanley, who some scouts feel is better than Tunsil, falls this far they’ll snatch him up in a heartbeat.
11. Chicago Bears – Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State. The Bears let Matt Forte walk in free agency and they have other young backs, but the Buckeye stud is a prize they won’t be able to resist.
12. New Orleans Saints – DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon. The Saints need to strengthen their defensive line, and recently signed free agent Nick Fairley to help do that. They’ll be happy to add Buckner, who’s been projected in some mock drafts to go much higher, if he falls into their lap here.
13. Miami Dolphins – Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State. Miami went into the off-season with a lot of holes to fill, and spent some serious cash in free agency to do just that. The Fish still need to address their offensive line, and Conklin is a safe pick here. He should be a solid pro.
14.  Oakland Raiders – Eli Apple, DB, Ohio State. The Raiders are an up and coming team, so we see defensive-minded head coach Jack Del Rio lobbying to get a good, young cornerback with this pick. Apple may be a little bit of a reach here, but the Raiders will grab him.
15. Los Angeles Rams – Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor. The Rams need a quarterback, and there’s a strong possibility they will trade up or down to get one, since there isn’t one left that warrants being chosen with this high of a pick. Since we’re not projecting trades, our pick will be a dynamic weapon to pair in the future with a QB they grab later in this draft.
16. Detroit Lions – Josh Doctson, WR, TCU. This big, steady receiver has been rising in the mock drafts since he had a great combine, and is a perfect pick to help offset the loss of Calvin Johnson, who recently retired.
17. Atlanta Falcons – Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama. Improving the defense is a priority for coach Dan Quinn, and with Ragland available, there won’t be any hesitation in the Falcons’ draft room to pick him.
18. Indianapolis Colts – Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State. The Colts’ defense is a weakness, and the few good players they have on that side of the ball are aging. Adding a young playmaking ‘backer like Lee will be a good addition.
19. Buffalo Bills – A’Shawn Robinson, DE, Alabama. This pick will have coach Rex Ryan smiling, as he begins to resurrect a disappointing defense in Buffalo. Robinson, projected to go much higher than this, should slide right into the starting position vacated by the departure of Mario Williams.
20. New York Jets – Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State. Salary cap concerns may force the Jets to unload D’Brickashaw Ferguson, and Decker would be ideal to groom to eventually take over the left tackle spot.
21. Washington Redskins – Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson. A wise pick for a team that needs to shore up a porous pass defense. Alexander is a big, physical corner who isn’t much of a ballhawk but is good in shutting down top receivers.
22. Houston Texans – Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama. Houston addressed many of their needs in free agency, but still needs help along the O-line. Kelly could step into the starting lineup immediately, and has the versatility to play multiple positions up front.
23. Minnesota Vikings – William Fuller, WR, Notre Dame. Vikings have a need for a dynamic pass catcher, and Fuller is the best one available at this spot.
24. Cincinnati Bengals – Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss – the Bengals already have a pretty solid defensive front, but adding Nkemdiche will strengthen that unit even more. Cinci has shown in the past that they won’t shy away from a player with off-field baggage, so this pick makes sense.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers – Shilique Calhoun, LB, Michigan State. The well-respected captain of the Spartans’ defense should fit right in with the long, historic line of standout linebackers produced by the Steelers.
26. Seattle Seahawks – Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State. With the best tackles already off the board, the Hawks go with the best interior lineman available in the draft to help strengthen their weakened offensive line.
27. Green Bay Packers – Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama. The sudden retirement of BJ Raji necessitates this choice, but this is certainly no reach for a “need” pick. Reed is rated much higher on most draft boards and will help the Packer defense immensely.
28. Kansas City Chiefs – Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville. Many see him being picked much higher than this, so Andy Reid and the Chiefs will be thrilled to add this big, disruptive force to their interior defensive line.
29. Arizona Cardinals – Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor. A good fit for the Cardinals’ defensive line, Billings is a good choice here as the run on defensive linemen continues at the bottom of the first round.
30. Carolina Panthers – Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson. The Panthers lost only one game in 2015 so there aren’t many weaknesses on this team, but they do have a need to add playmakers on the D-line, and this is a deep draft for that position.
31. Denver Broncos – Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis. For the second time in their history, the Broncos face a season after winning the Super Bowl where they don’t have their starting quarterback returning. Lynch may not be the immediate starter, but the team will need to move quickly to address the position for the future.

So, what exactly do the Buffalo Bills have to do in the off-season to finally end their long playoff drought in 2016? General manager Doug Whaley has already said the team won’t be active in free agency this year, instead focusing on re-signing their own players who are eligible for free agency. Here are my suggestions for the positions they need to upgrade to reach the promised land:

Quarterback

In my opinion, the Bills can go into 2016 without worrying about who their starting QB will be. Tyrod Taylor showed enough this past season to have earned the job. The problem is the gaping void at backup quarterback. EJ Manuel is clearly headed out of town after not developing at all in his three seasons here, and Josh Johnson, an in-season free agent signing, is a journeyman who isn’t the answer either. Zac Dysert is on their practice squad and will get an opportunity, but Whaley needs to upgrade this position for sure. The best free agent option is probably Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill’s backup in Miami. Since Whaley has stated he is unlikely to do any free agent shopping, however, the Bills may look for a backup option in the middle or late rounds of the draft. Possibilities there include Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, Christian Hackenberg of Penn State and a late round prospect, Jake Coker, signal caller for national champion Alabama.

Receiver

Some experts suggest the Bills need to draft a complementary receiver to play opposite Sammy Watkins and draw coverage away from their budding superstar, but as long as he’s healthy, Robert Woods is capable of filling that role. If the team feels the need to add some speed to their receiving corps, they might look to drafting a prospect like Pitt’s Tyler Boyd, who also would be a great addition to their return game and should be available in the second or third round. Whaley may have already addressed this position, having signed a couple of street free agents, Greg Little and Jarrett Boykin, a college teammate of Tyrod Taylor at Virginia Tech.

Offensive Line

Whaley’s top priority to strengthen the Bills’ chances of ending their playoff drought is to try to keep the offensive line intact, specifically the left side of the line. He needs to get guard Richie Incognito and tackle Cordy Glenn re-signed. If the team feels the need to pick up line depth in the later rounds of the draft, a couple of intriguing players are Indiana guard Dan Feeney and tackle Willie Beavers of Western Michigan.

Linebacker

This is a position the Bills need to address with a high pick in the draft. They are sorely lacking in playmaking linebackers, which are essential in Rex Ryan’s defense. Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith are both projected first round picks. Ragland has been the pick many mock drafts have pegged as going to the Bills with their top choice, 19th overall. Smith suffered an injury in his season-ending bowl game and might be a risky pick, but he’s a top player. Second round possibilities include a pair of backers from Georgia, Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins. In free agency, there’s a player available who has excelled in Ryan’s scheme – Calvin Pace. He would have to come at a low price for Buffalo to have the means to sign him however. One thing about today’s game – there is a lot of shading as far as positions when it comes to what constitutes a linebacker or a defensive end these days. Jerry Hughes, for instance, describes his position as a “hybrid”, part end and part outside backer. Mario Williams never seemed comfortable playing that role. The Bills may go after a player high in the draft that would be considered one of these types, an “edge rusher” if you will. Clemson’s Shaq Lawson and Alabama’s Jonathan Allen are possibilities if they go that route.

Safety

With Aaron Williams’ career in jeopardy due to a neck injury and Corey Graham’s declining play, this is also a position of need. If the Bills use their top pick on a safety, Clemson’s Jayron Kearse is the only top player at the position considered first round material who would be left at the 19th slot. In the second round, Ohio State’s Vonn Bell would be a good choice. San Diego safety Eric Weddle has seemingly worn out his welcome with the Chargers, and is a free agent. He is a very capable player who is also most likely out of the Bills’ price range, unless they decide to make some surprise roster cuts to free up more cap space.