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One thing that has been aggravating about the surprising start to the 2011 season for the Buffalo Bills is that every time they’ve lost in the first half of the year, the national media “experts” have smugly dismissed them as a “fraud” and although they have gotten a lot of positive attention, mostly there has been a feeling that they would level off and eventually return to their losing ways. After Sunday’s 44-7 dismantling of the Bills by the Dallas Cowboys, those smug experts may turn out to be right. In my recent mid-season assessment of the Bills, I mentioned that the team’s new franchise QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, needed to eliminate turnovers if the Bills were going to continue to stay in the playoff hunt. He threw 3 in the rout against Dallas, and Fred Jackson added a fumble in what was easily the most dismal offensive performance this year by the Bills. Jackson did manage to gain over 100 yards on the ground again, but his yardage came mostly in garbage time when the game was already decided, which on Sunday was probably some time midway through the second quarter. As bad as the Bills’ offense played on Sunday, I still think they are a good enough unit to contend for a playoff spot this year. The problem is the team’s porous defense, which started to show some progress recently, especially in the shutout win over the Redskins in Toronto. But they were awful in Dallas, getting streamrolled by the Cowboy attack that showed them absolutely no respect. The Bills’ D made Tony Romo, an erratic mess in most games this year, look like the second coming of Joe Montana, as he led his team on touchdown drives on their first 4 possessions. Once again, the team got zero pressure on the quarterback, in this case a quarterback who has melted all year long when rattled even a little. Romo was laughing and having a great time on the sideline as early as the start of the second quarter, never appearing to have any trepidation of being involved in a tough game. I really believe the defense’s inability to stop or even slow down the Cowboys’ attack is the main reason the team got hammered. In fact, Jackson’s rushing yardage is a sign of what the team could’ve accomplished had the defense done anything to keep the game manageable. There were 2 plays in the game that told the story of how one-sided it was. First, there was Dez Bryant’s touchdown catch over Leodis McKelvin on the ‘Boys opening drive. It was a great play, and McKelvin had pretty good coverage, but it foretold how much of a “men against boys” contest this was going to be. The other play was a simple throw and catch for a first down by Romo to his tight end, Jason Witten, on a third down on one of the many Dallas scoring drives. On the play, three Bills defenders stood in a line just behind the defensive line, apparently covering their “zones”, while Witten just ran a couple yards past them, turned around and caught the ball for the first down. The 3 Bills’ defenders, all looking bewildered, then turned around and converged on Witten to make the tackle. I’m not any kind of football defensive scheme expert, but I have to believe in any scheme that one of those players needs to be responsible for actually covering the opponents’ biggest third down receiving weapon. My point is that the Bills’ defensive coaches are either doing a terrible job of putting the players in positions to succeed, or they need to put players on the field who actually understand the scheme and don’t turn the game into an easy practice session for the opposing offense. Despite the rout, technically the Bills are still very much in both the division title and playoff races. At 5-4, they are in much better position than more bally-hooed teams like the Eagles or the Chargers, but unless they somehow come up with some answers on defense, they’re in deep trouble. Their next opponent, the Miami Dolphins, have gotten up off the mat and won 2 games in a row. They are starting to believe in their injury replacement QB, Matt Moore. Unless the Bills fix something by next week, it’ll look like a Dan Marino highlight reel.

After picking 8 winners out of 14 games last week, my record for the season stands at 87 correct and 43 wrong. Here are my week ten choices:

Oakland at San Diego – this is the first of the NFL’s Thursday night games, and I’ll go with the Chargers at home, with Oakland still trying to adjust to new QB Carson Palmer.

Buffalo at Dallas – the Cowboys are certainly tougher at home than on the road, but I believe Buffalo will regroup after a poor performance against the Jets and win a close game here, with their defense coming up with timely turnovers.

New Orleans at Atlanta – huge NFC South battle that may decide the division title. The Falcons have righted the ship after a slow start, and their defense is head and shoulders over the Saints’, who may have the worst tackling defense in the NFL.

Tennessee at Carolina – I expect Chris Johnson to have a decent game running the ball for the Titans, but I also feel Cam Newton will pull out a big Panther win using his arm and legs.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – normally I would go with the Steelers to rebound after a tough loss at home to the Ravens by dominating rookie QB Andy Dalton and shutting down the Bengals, but on a hunch I’ll pick Cinci to continue its’ shocking success by winning at home, with their defense outplaying the vaunted Steeler D.

St. Louis at Cleveland – the Rams, who once played in Cleveland a long time ago, will tough out a win on the road in a battle of teams that are both a long way from being serious contenders.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis – this will be the week when the Colts finally show some pride and come together as a team to get their first win, even though the Jaguars are a tough out.

Denver at Kansas City – maybe there really is something to this Tim Tebow phenomenon. The Chiefs are smarting from taking a hammering from Miami last week in their own home stadium, and the home fans will leave disappointed again this week as Tebow leads another Bronco victory.

Washington at Miami – the Dolphins are starting to believe in replacement QB Matt Moore, while the Redskins are in shambles, mostly on offense. Miami builds on the momentum from their big win in Kansas City last week by beating the ‘Skins at home.

Arizona at Philadelphia – the Eagles, after being upset at home on Monday night by the Bears, need to win every game they can to stay alive in the playoff race, and won’t slip up here. They’ll beat the inconsistent Cards easily.

Houston at Tampa Bay – this should turn out to be a defensive battle, and even though the Bucs are tough at home and highly motivated after losing to the Saints last week, I’ll go with the Texans to win behind Wade Phillips’ defense. Wade is in his comfort zone coordinating a defense, and excels at it, which is exactly what he’s doing this year with Houston.

Baltimore at Seattle – the Ravens were sleepwalking for 2 weeks but woke up in time to beat the rival Steelers for the second time this season last week. Now they need to beat the teams they should beat, and will do just that by pounding the Seahawks.

Detroit at Chicago – this rough, tough NFC North battle will be won by the Bears, who are starting to win me over with a never-say-die attitude they get from their coach, Lovie Smith. Chicago’s defense will be the difference.

New York Giants at San Francisco – this is a really big test for the young Niners, who are on a roll. I’ll pick the Giants to win based on their advantage in experience and the fact that they need to keep winning to keep the lead in their division, while San Fran is already dominating the weak NFC West and can afford the loss.

New England at New York Jets – the difference here is defense. The Jets are solid on that side of the ball, while the Pats rank dead last in the NFL.  New York wins at home.

Minnesota at Green Bay – I picked against the mighty Packers last week and I still believe they’ll get ambushed somewhere along the line this season, but it won’t be here, at home at Lambeau on the Monday night stage against a weaker division foe. Green Bay wins easily.

The Buffalo Bills’ mid-season report card this year, with the team at 5-3 and in a 3-way tie for the lead in the AFC East, has a lot more bright spots than last season’s, when the team was winless. Here’s an in depth look at the club as it reaches the halfway point of the 2011 season:

Front Office / Coaching

GM Buddy Nix has to be given credit, first of all, for hiring a man who has turned out to be a competent head coach in Chan Gailey. That’s no small thing after a decade of Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey on the job training and the bland Dick Jauron years. Nix has also done a decent job of adding talent to the roster, including some great waiver wire finds, like tight end Scott Chandler and offensive linemen Kraig Urbik, Erik Pears and Chad Rinehart. The free agent signings for this year have been contributors – Brad Smith and Nick Barnett have both made plays to help the team win, while Tyler Thigpen, although he hasn’t seen any game action yet, is a comfort to have as a veteran backup quarterback, something the Bills lacked last season. The jury is still out on Nix’s 2 college drafts, but there has been some development among the younger players. Gailey’s coaching staff has been excellent at putting the players in the right positions to make plays on both sides of the ball. The offense has been productive and entertaining, while the defense, obviously still a work in progress, has come up with turnovers at crucial moments in the team’s victories.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the team’s roster at the half-way point:

Quarterback

In my 2010 mid-season report card for the Bills, one of the things I criticized was the mistake Gailey made in going with Trent Edwards over Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to start the season. He did rectify that mistake after only 2 games, and has been rewarded with excellent play at the position by Fitzpatrick. “The Amish Rifle” has displayed a knack for making quick decisions and getting rid of the ball on time to avoid sacks, and also for using all the weapons at his disposal to keep drives alive and score touchdowns, something rarely seen here over the last decade. During the second half of the season, Fitzpatrick does need to make sure he keeps turnovers to a minimum if the Bills are going to stay in the playoff race. As stated earlier, Thigpen is a good addition to the roster, if only for his veteran experience and knowledge of Gailey’s offense from their days together in Kansas City. He’s a good insurance policy to have in case anything should happen to Fitzpatrick. Brad Smith is the third QB, and has been used exclusively in short yardage wildcat formations, where he’s been effective.

Running Back

Without a doubt, Fred Jackson has been the Bills’ MVP in the first half of 2011. He has been a reliable and durable fixture on the offense, and has excelled in both the running and passing games, as well as picking up blitzes. He has been such an important part of the team’s attack that they have struggled with finding ways to get C.J. Spiller involved in the offense. Spiller has been mostly effective in limited playing time in the backfield, and was even used as a wide receiver when injuries hit that position. Johnny White got a little playing time in the one-sided win over Kansas City on opening day, but his contributions will mostly come on special teams.

Receivers

The Bills were hit hard by injuries at the receiver spot in the first eight games, losing Roscoe Parrish and Marcus Easley for the season and Donald Jones for an extended period. Naaman Roosevelt, one of the team’s final cuts, was re-signed when the injuries hit, and has made the most of the second chance. Stevie Johnson is the jewel of this group, a real rising star in the league, while David Nelson has become a go-to player, especially on third down and in the red zone. Tight end Scott Chandler has already set a club record for touchdowns by a tight end for a season, and has been a revelation so far this year. Mike Caussin and Lee Smith are Chandler’s backups, and haven’t seen much action. Ruvell Martin, a backup wide receiver, is basically a special teamer.

Offensive Line

It’s debatable whether the Bills’ offensive line has made tremendous strides and become a positive where it used to be considered a weakness, or whether Fitzpatrick’s play is making them look good. It needs to be stated that the line has also done a great job of run-blocking for Jackson. There are 3 draft choices on the line who are or are going to be key players going forward for the franchise. Center Eric Wood is getting mentioned as a Pro Bowl candidate, and guard Andy Levitre, now filling in at left tackle because of injuries, deserves to be also. The third player is rookie tackle Chris Hairston, who was outstanding filling in at left tackle when starter Demetrius Bell was hurt, before being injured himself. Bell will be a free agent after this season, and since he barely retained his starting job this year, there’s a chance the Bills won’t resign him. Look for Hairston, once he’s healthy, to take over that spot later this year. On the right side of the line, two waiver pickups – Urbik and Pears, have held their own, while backups Rinehart, Colin Brown and Sam Young have been solid in limited opportunities. As a whole, the group has not had a lot of penalty problems, or given up many sacks, and has become a strength of the team.

Defensive Line

The news that Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams is lost for the season is going to be a huge blow for this unit. It probably means that top draft pick Marcell Dareus will remain at the spot, where he looked very comfortable in having a dominant game against Washington recently. Dwan Edwards has been solid at one end spot, and the question going into the second half of the season will be who will take over the other end position. The top candidates are Chris Kelsay, now a linebacker but probably more effective on the line,  Alex Carrington, who still appears to be learning, and Spencer Johnson, an effective playmaker in limited playing time who is the best option in my mind. Backup nose tackles Kellen Heard and Torell Troup should also get extensive playing time now that Williams is out.

Linebacker 

In my pre-season preview of the Bills, I predicted that the club’s linebacking corps would probably look a lot different by season’s end than it did at the start of the year. So far, rookie Kelvin Sheppard has supplanted Andra Davis at one inside LB spot, while Shawne Merriman’s season has ended due to injury, opening up playing time for both Danny Batten and Arthur Moats. Nick Barnett has been a solid addition at the other inside spot, while Kelsay has held down the other outside spot, although he may have to be more involved in the D-line rotation now. Backups Kirk Morrison and Chris White have been active in the few chances they’ve gotten. Antonio Coleman, another late cut, was brought back after Merriman went down.

Defensive Backs

You have to break this group up into cornerbacks and safeties to evaluate them. The corners, Drayton Florence, Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee, have taken turns getting toasted and making plays so far, while safeties Jairus Byrd and especially George Wilson, have been outstanding. As for the backups, Bryan Scott has been an invaluable player for a few years now, while Reggie Corner, another late cut who was brought back, is a solid nickel or dime cover corner. A pair of rookies look like they will be solid contributors in the future – cornerback Aaron Williams, who unfortunately is hurt, shows potential while Da’Norris Searcy has been great on special teams, and single-handedly saved the win over the Raiders with his last-play interception. Another rookie, Justin Rogers, will get his chances in the second half.

Special Teams

Bruce DeHaven’s units have done a good job for the most part this year. Both the kckoff and punt coverage units have been effective, while the return teams haven’t done much for a couple reasons. Kickoff returns have been significantly curtailed by the new kickoff rules, which also limit Spiller’s ability to contribute, as well as Brad Smith’s. The loss of Parrish to injury has obviously hurt the punt return game. Long snapper Garrison Sanborn’s game is good, the measuring stick being no big mistakes on snaps in the kicking game. Punter Brian Moorman’s game seems to be back on track after some early troubles, and Rian Lindell has been solid on field goals. Lindell’s shoulder injury will sideline him for 4-6 weeks, so new kicker Dave Rayner will have big shoes to fill.