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In posting a Buffalo Bills 2010 season preview, I looked at the prospects at each position. Here is part of the assessment of the quarterbacks:

“For better or worse, Trent Edwards will again direct the Bills’ offense this season. He had looked shell-shocked since suffering a concussion 2 years ago and was running for his life last year behind a patchwork offensive line. So far in preseason he looks a lot more comfortable, and that could be due to the fact that the O-line has done a good job of protecting him for the most part. Edwards also looks like he has bulked up since last season. Hopefully that will help his durability. Edwards still hasn’t shown that he can handle playing in bad weather, a top qualification of any Bills’ QB. It was interesting that after Fewell took over the Bills last season, he started having them practice outside for the first time. Could that be a reason Edwards hasn’t proven he can handle playing in the elements?  He still has a lot to prove, but he did win the starting job outright in camp. Look for steady progress from Edwards and in the end, a successful if not spectacular season from him, especially if his offensive line stays healthy and jells together. Ryan Fitzpatrick did a good job holding down the fort in some dismal conditions as last season wound down, and his presence on the roster as the backup is a positive. He is settling nicely into the role as the guy who helps out the younger QBs from the sideline, but is always ready when called upon to play.”

Yes, it’s true Fitzpatrick is a true professional who is always prepared when called upon to play. The Bills’ coaching staff, after 2 dismal offensive performances to start the regular season, has decided that time is now. Edwards did win the job outright in training camp but unfortunately, once the real bullets started flying, he immediately regressed into the tentative, unproductive signal caller he was when he lost the job last season. Bulking up may have helped him withstand hard hits, but it didn’t do anything to improve his pocket awareness. So the Bills announced on Monday that Fitzpatrick would start this week’s game at New England. This is a change that had to be made, and I applaud coach Chan Gailey for doing it now while the season is still salvagable. Players who underperform at any other position are subject to being replaced in the lineup, but coaches are always wary of ruining their quarterback’s fragile psyche by sending them to the bench. Kudos to Gailey for putting the good of the team ahead of worrying about Edwards being disappointed. Fitzpatrick isn’t exactly the second coming of Bart Starr, but the fact is last season, when the Bills had a 6-10 record, the team was 5-4 when Fitzpatrick started. The Bills’ players are not going to publically trash Edwards, but because of  Trent’s past record and the “deja vu” feeling that the first 2 games had of last year, you know this move is going to go over well in the locker room. The Bills’ offensive line has struggled somewhat in the first 2 weeks, so Fitzpatrick’s mobility will be an asset also. An offensive line can make a quarterback look great when they protect him well, but it’s also true that a quarterback can make an offensive line look better if that quarterback doesn’t panic at the first sign of trouble, makes good decisions, finds a way to extend plays, and has some semblance of pocket awareness. I have a feeling that fans will be surprised at how much the Bills’ O-line “improves” this week with Fitzpatrick behind center.

The game plan for trying to upset a heavily-favored obviously superior team on the road in the NFL is usually to “weather the storm” in the early going, keep the game close and then hope to steal the game with a couple of big plays, possibly off of turnovers when the highly-favored team starts to press. The Buffalo Bills’ defense accomplished that in Green Bay by holding the Packers to field goals while their offense struggled. Even when the Pack scored to widen their lead to 13-0, the Bills were still in the game. Meanwhile, the offense gained 14 yards on the last play of the first quarter to bring their yardage total for the quarter to exactly zero. To their credit, the Bills put together an impressive touchdown drive, heavily featuring the running game and all 3 of their backs, to cut the score to 13-7 at halftime. Buffalo now had some momentum and were due to receive the second half kickoff, so they were set up perfectly to make a game of it. That’s when the bottom fell out. Trent Edwards threw 2 second half interceptions that started the Pack on its’ way to what turned out to be a one-sided win. Edwards wasn’t at fault for either pick however. The first one clanked off the hands of Stevie Johnson directly to a Green Bay defender, and the second was more of a strip than an interception, as the Packer defender took the ball directly from the Bills’ receiver. The Bills’ quarterback, although not at fault directly for the 2 picks, did nothing otherwise to give his team any semblance of a passing game. The offensive line didn’t do much to protect him, but Edwards, now in his 4th season, still seems to have little pocket awareness and almost zero mobility. After showing signs of progress in preseason, Edwards, in the first 2 regular season games, looks exactly like the QB who played his way to the bench last year. The Bills had no answer for Clay Matthews, who not only had 3 sacks but intimidated Johnson into short-arming the ball that wound up being the first interception, and was all over the field all day. The Bills’ defense is still a work in progress and it was disappointing that they wilted in the second half and gave up three touchdown drives, but they have played well enough to win in both games this season if they’d gotten even average play from the offense. The Bills aren’t good enough to overcome mistakes against anybody, let alone a Super Bowl contender like the Packers. Now they face another road game, in New England, against a highly-motivated Patriots team coming off a loss to the Jets. It shapes up to be an extremely ugly game.

Before making predictions on the NFL’s games scheduled for week 2, I have to take a minute to blow my own horn on my picks for the opening week. It is said that the hardest week for predicting the outcome of NFL games is the first week, since all the teams play vanilla offenses and defenses in the preseason, trying not to “show” anything to their opponents to game-plan for on opening day. The final tally for my opening week picks was 10 right and 5 wrong (I didn’t make a pick for the Thursday night Saints/Vikings opener). I correctly picked upsets by Houston over the Colts and Kansas City over San Diego, and in the “wrong” column, I picked Detroit to beat Chicago, and the Bears’ win in that game was a subject of great debate when the Lions got robbed of what would have been the winning touchdown, and did say that the Steelers/Falcons game would be a low scoring one, even though I thought the Falcons would win. Of course, having this moderate success picking on opening day probably only means I’ll go 0-16 this week. Here are my week two picks:

Buffalo at Green Bay – I picked with my heart instead of my head last week, so this week I have to go with the Packers in their home opener at storied Lambeau Field. The Packers are double digit favorites and if I were picking this game with the point spread included I’d play Buffalo. With RB Ryan Grant out for the season, the Packs’ offensive line not quite ready for prime time and the Bills’ pass defense being a strength of the team, I think this game may stay close. But Buffalo’s offense is pathetic and will struggle to do anything in an extremely hostile environment.

Miami at Minnesota – After losing in New Orleans on opening night, it figures that the Vikings, in their home opener, will be stoked to right the ship and get the win. However, I just don’t think Brett Favre is ready to play yet, and I’m still not sold on the Vikings as a legitimate contender. Miami wins a close game with their running game surprisingly dominating the Vikes’ strong run defense.

Kansas City at Cleveland –  the Browns jumped out to a 14-0 lead in Tampa last week before losing, and now QB Jake Delhomme may be injured. The Chiefs were impressive at home in upsetting San Diego on Monday night, making a lot of big plays in inclement weather. Regardless of who plays quarterback, I’m picking the Browns to win at home, with the Chiefs withering in the fourth quarter after having to play a late Monday night game and having a short week to recover.

Chicago at Dallas – the Cowboys aren’t all they are being hyped up to be, but they will dominate the Bears at home and win this game easily.

Arizona at Atlanta – Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has been disappointing, but is still better than anybody Arizona puts on the field at the position. I like the Falcons to win at home, after a tough overtime loss in Pittsburgh last week.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – Tampa Bay is a team on the rise, but I don’t think they’re mature enough yet to win a big division game on the road. The Panthers have a strong running game and their defense will stifle young Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman and come up with a win in their home opener.

Philadelphia at Detroit – the Lions should have won on opening day, and their home crowd should generate some excitement, but without Matt Stafford, out with an injury, the offense will struggle. The Eagles also lost their starting QB on opening day when Green Bay’s Clay Matthews ground Kevin Kolb into the turf, but Mike Vick is a weapon who will do damage to a young Lions’ defense with his arm and his legs, and Philly will win.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – the Bengals were embarrassed in New England last week, and the Ravens outmuscled a brash Jets team on Monday night. I’m not a big fan of the Bengals and don’t think they are a serious contender, but I think they’ll win this game at home against a Baltimore team coming off a short week of preparation, that had to play a hard-fought physical game against the Jets.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee – the proud Steelers are bound and determined to keep their season alive while Ben Roethlisberger serves his suspension, but the Titans are just as determined to make sure they start strong this year after opening 0-6 last season. The Titans will win at home again after an impressive thrashing of Oakland last week.

Seattle at Denver – without a doubt, the most stunning development in week one was Seattle’s upset of the 49ers. Apparently Pete Carroll learned something during his college stint at USC, after coaching some  mediocre NFL teams in his younger years. It will be much tougher on the road, but I think the Seahawks will make it 2 in a row with a close win in the altitude in Denver.

St. Louis at Oakland – the Rams’ new quarterback, Sam Bradford, looks like the real deal, but Oakland is a better team than they showed in their opener at Tennessee, and will win their home opener with a dominant defensive performance.

Houston at Washington – both teams are riding high going into this game, coming off huge wins over supposedly superior division rivals. The Texans are a better team on both sides of the ball and I see them winning this game on the road, maybe behind some big plays in the passing game as the Redskins gear up to stop Arian Foster in the run game.

New England at New York Jets – going off their respective performances in week one, the Pats should be an easy pick for this game. But the Jets are much better than they showed on Monday night, and things tend to even out in divisional games between teams that know each other well. Throw in Tom Brady’s “I hate the Jets” comments as extra motivation and I see the Jets rebounding and pulling out their first win in their new stadium.

Jacksonville at San Diego – the Chargers are notoriously slow starters, and having 2 of their key starters holding out is hurting them, but they have enough talent to knock off Jacksonville. Expect an aroused San Diego defense to come up with some key turnovers against the Jaguars’ QB, David Garrard, to put the offense in position to pull out a win.

New York Giants at Indianapolis – in the battle of the Manning brothers, I expect older brother Peyton to be extremely focused after an opening day thrashing at Houston and engineer a big Colts win. The Colts’ defense looks soft at this point and with safety Bob Sanders, their most physical player on defense, out hurt, the Giants should control the clock somewhat with their run game, but it won’t be enough to win.

New Orleans at San Francisco – one of my comments regarding the 49ers in picking them to win last week was to question how well they would handle their new higher expectations. The answer so far is a resounding “not very well”. Nobody saw their drubbing by Seattle coming, and unfortunately they will find themselves in an 0-2 hole after this week. The Saints won their opener but the offense struggled so I expect Drew Brees to make it a point to get that unit back on track this week and win this game with relative ease.