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Heading into week four of the NFL season, I should probably be planning a trip to Las Vegas. After correctly picking 13 of 16 winners last week, my season record now stands at 35 correct, 13 wrong. Here are my week four picks:

Buffalo at Cincinnati – the Bills gave their fans a sneak peek at how they were going to play this season in last year’s game against the Bengals, when they wiped out a big deficit and won. This year’s Bengals are a much different team – no Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens or Chad Ochocinco, but they do have a pretty strong defense. Still, I think Buffalo pulls out a close win.

Carolina at Chicago – big test for Panther rookie QB Cam Newton on the road against the Bears, and I don’t think he’ll pass it. The Bears get a much-needed win at home.

Tennessee at Cleveland – both of these teams appear to be clubs that will be inconsistent all year. Although I think the Titans get better quarterback play, I’ll go with the Browns at home.

Detroit at Dallas – the Cowboys have played some gutsy football this year and pulled out close wins, but Detroit is believing in itself and has a solid roster. The Lions stay unbeaten with a win at Jerry’s Palace.

Pittsburgh at Houston – the Steelers have looked a little vulnerable this year, and Houston will knock them off at home in a shootout.

New Orleans at Jacksonville – the Saints score at will but need to shore up their defense. However, Jacksonville doesn’t have the offensive punch to take advantage of the Saints’ defensive shortcomings, and New Orleans wins here.

Minnesota at Kansas City – both of these teams are winless and reeling, but the Chiefs have been plagued by injuries and may be losing faith in their coach. The Vikings get their first win.

San Francisco at Philadelphia – the 49ers don’t have the horses to compete with Philly, and the Eagles need the win badly, and will get it in a lop-sided contest.

Washington at St. Louis – the Redskins are playing hard and getting respect but I still feel like they are a house of cards waiting to crumble. Coach Mike Shanahan is doing it with smoke and mirrors, and the Rams crack the mirror this week and get their first win at home.

New York Giants at Arizona – the Giants were impressive in beating the Eagles last week, avenging a crushing loss from 2010. But they’re a Jeckyl and Hyde club and this is just the type of game they’ll slip up in. The Cardinals get a win at home.

Atlanta at Seattle – another 2010 playoff team off to a slow start, the Falcons need to string together some wins to stay close in the NFC South. They’ll get one here against a club going nowhere this year.

Denver at Green Bay – no contest in this game, especially at Lambeau Field. Green Bay wins in a rout.

New England at Oakland – this should be an interesting contest. Oakland is the real deal, and proved it with a big win over the Jets last week. However, there’s no way Tom Brady and the Pats lose again. They’ll outscore the Raiders and win a close one.

Miami at San Diego – in my division predictions for the year I had the Dolphins finishing in the AFC East basement and they are well on their way. The Chargers send them to the 4th loss of the year here.

New York Jets at Baltimore –  the Jets, one of the AFC’s strongest teams, start off with a brutal schedule. I think they’ll regroup and beat Rex Ryan’s old team. Then they get to play New England next week.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay – it’s amazing how mediocre the Colts are without Peyton Manning. Tampa Bay plays well in the Monday Night spotlight and gets the win at home.

Ding Dong…the wicked witch is dead! Just like in 1980 when Chuck Knox’s Bills ended a decade of frustration, and 20 straight losses, to Miami with a win over the Dolphins, the Bills on Sunday put an end to a long losing streak against another division rival with a stunning 34-31 win over New England, after 15 consecutive losses to the Pats. The game started out looking a lot like most of the others in that 15 game streak, as Tom Brady effortlessly passed his club to a 21-0 lead. But for the second week in a row, the Bills “circled the wagons” . Their offense awakened, and the defense managed to do the unthinkable, picking Brady off 4 times to key the big comeback win. Leodis McKelvin, playing with a target on his back after being torched by Oakland last week, had an interception, as did Bryan Scott, George Wilson and Drayton Florence, who returned his for a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Bills never managed to sack Brady or even get close to him, and he spent most of the day hitting either Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski for big gains. Then the Bills used a different strategy, they got their hands in the air and began deflecting Brady’s passes. Marcell Dareus tipped the pass that Florence intercepted and returned for the score.

Offensively, the Bills used a similar formula in this game to what they did against Oakland the previous week. Fred Jackson was a main threat, this time more on screen passes than runs from scrimmage. Ryan Fitzpatrick guided a potent passing game, and spread the ball around to all of his weapons – budding star Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Donald Jones and tight end Scott Chandler, who may also be a budding star. The Bills’ offensive line in the past few years has taken lots of criticism, but this year’s version has done a great job so far. So the win, obviously, was huge not only for the Bills’ fans but also for the team. Amazingly (or maybe not so amazing after seeing the Raiders last week), the Jets were beaten soundly in Oakland, leaving Buffalo in sole possession of the AFC East lead at 3-0. It’s a long season and there are no guarantees that the Bills can keep up this pace, but for the fans, it sure beats the 0-8 start of 2010.

Heading into week 3 of the NFL season, the “personalities” of various teams are starting to take shape, which should make it easier to start predicting winners. What happens is, however, teams make lineup changes or scheme adjustments to try to plug holes and cover weaknesses, some of which work and some of which don’t. I’ve had pretty good success so far in the opening 2 weeks, with 12 winners picked out of last week’s 16 games. That brings my season record to 22-10, and here are my choices for week three:

New England at Buffalo – the Bills have played great football so far this year, at least offensively. Their defense is still a work in progress, however, and the Pats have owned them, with 15 straight wins in the series. Buffalo will score points, as New England’s secondary has holes, but Tom Brady will make enough plays to pull out a win for his team. The Pats have been winning these types of games for a decade, the Bills are still learning how to do it.

Jacksonville at Carolina – Blaine Gabbert takes over as the Jags’ QB this week, making this an intriguing matchup of rookie first round draft choice signal callers. Gabbert will need time to adjust to his new role, while Cam Newton, who has been lighting it up for 2 weeks, is hungry to get his team a win rather than put up numbers, so I expect a Panther win at home.

San Francisco at Cincinnati – both of these teams are pretenders, although both have been playing hard this year. I’m not a fan of Niner QB Alex Smith, and I expect the Bengal defense to make his life miserable. Cinci wins at home.

Miami at Cleveland – big win for the Browns over the Peyton-less Colts last week, while the Dolphins remain winless. I think the Browns pull out a close win at home, although I think this game could go either way. I have a feeling Miami coach Tony Sparano is starting to lose control of his team, and his “I have no answers” statement after last week’s loss won’t help him.

Detroit at Minnesota – the Vikings lost a heartbreaker to Tampa last week, and will be highly motivated to right the ship at home, but the Lions are starting to look like they’re for real and more importantly, are beginning to believe they can win. Detroit stays unbeaten with a big division road win.

Houston at New Orleans – the Texans are defying the critics and showing that they might be ready to dethrone the Colts in their division, and this game will be a huge test for the team’s rebuilt secondary, coordinated by Wade Phillips. The Saints’ firepower, coupled with their dome home field advantage, will give New Orleans the win.

New York Giants at Philadelphia – division games are difficult to predict, and the Giants lately have dominated play against Philly, only to blow games by giving up big plays at the worst time. I’ll pick the motivated Giants to win here, regardless of who winds up quarterbacking the Eagles.

Denver at Tennessee – nobody saw the Titans’ upset win over Baltimore coming last week, and I have to take back my comment that Tennessee is in for a long losing season. It’s amazing how Matt Hasselbeck has taken control of his new team this quickly, and if RB Chris Johnson ever gets going these guys will be dangerous. I’ll go with the Titans at home.

New York Jets at Oakland – this game should be a good one, and the Jets will need their defense to be at its’ best to get a win in the “Black Hole”. They will rise to the occasion and stay unbeaten with a big early season win here.

Kansas City at San Diego – it’s pitiful how the Chiefs have had such a negative turnaround from 2010, and now besides looking unprepared and listless, season-ending injuries are mounting for them. San Diego, smarting from a loss at New England, wins easily at home.

Baltimore at St. Louis – tough schedule for the young Rams to start off 2011, and now they have to face an angry Ravens team raring to get rid of the stink of being upset by the Titans. Baltimore is the better team and will win this game.

Green Bay at Chicago – replay of last year’s NFC Championship game, which Green Bay won to get to the Super Bowl. The Packers’ defense has been surprisingly vulnerable so far this year, but they’re still unbeaten and will stay that way with another big win at Soldier Field.

Arizona at Seattle – I don’t trust either of these teams to pick a winner, but I’ll go with the home team and pick the Seahawks to get their first win of 2011.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – the Bucs’ big comeback win over the Vikings may have saved their season, and I believe they will carry that momentum into this game and upset the Falcons in a big NFC South matchup.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis – this would have been a classic matchup, but with Peyton Manning hurt the Steelers will have little trouble winning as their defense will dominate the game.

Washington at Dallas – one of the NFL’s most fierce traditional rivalries, dating back to some classic matchups between coaches Tom Landry and George Allen. The ‘Skins are 2-0 and Dallas QB Tony Romo will probably be playing wearing a flak jacket to protect a rib / punctured lung injury, which makes Washington a popular pick to win this game on Monday night. However, I’m going with the Cowboys to grab a hard-fought win on the road.