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So far in this young NFL season, long-suffering Buffalo Bills’ fans have been treated to some of the most exciting games since the club’s 4 Super Bowl runs in the 1990s, especially at home in Ralph Wilson Stadium. Sunday’s game against the self-proclaimed “Dream Team”, the Philadelphia Eagles, was no exception. The Bills used the same formula in this game as they have all year so far, running a balanced offense centered around Fred Jackson. Jackson ran for over 100 yards again and also contributed greatly in the passing game, turning screen passes into long gains. Ryan Fitzpatrick guided a solid passing game, throwing for less than 200 yards but making those yards count by distributing the ball among all his receivers. Unlike some of their other wins this year, the Bills this time rarely took shots downfield against the Eagles’ strong cornerbacks and didn’t utilize tight end Scott Chandler much, but kept drives alive with timely Fitzpatrick passes to Jackson, David Nelson, Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones and Namaan Roosevelt, who stepped in and contributed after Jones was hurt. Brad Smith also chipped in with a 5 yard TD run out of the wildcat formation.

Defensively, the Bills also followed the same pattern as their 3 other wins this year, giving up chunks of yardage and points, but also coming up with turnovers and making stops when they needed to. Nick Barnett had 2 interceptions and returned one for a touchdown. A weekly “Pick Six” by the Bills’ defense has become a habit for these guys also. Overall, the Bills came up with 5 turnovers, 4 of them interceptions. Incidentally, the team led the NFL in picks coming into this game, so they’ll surely hold onto that distinction. George Wilson, who played a monster game along with fellow safety Jairus Byrd, had an interception, as did nickel cornerback Reggie Corner. Alex Carrington tipped Michael Vick’s pass to set up Corner’s pick, Arthur Moats pressured Vick on Wilson’s interception, redirecting the pass, and rookie LB Kelvin Sheppard’s hit on Vick set up Barnett’s touchdown pickoff. Once again, it was a total team victory, as the Bills did what they needed to do to overcome Vick’s dynamic “high risk, high reward” style of play. At 4-1, the Bills are now firmly established as a team to reckon with in the AFC East race this year. The circumstances of this game, winning against a totally desperate team that needed the game badly, makes the win possibly more impressive than beating the Patriots to end a 15 game losing streak against them. Next week, they get a similar test – this time on the road, against another NFC East team, the New York Giants,  who’ll be angry after losing at home to lowly Seattle.

Week four was the first week of the NFL’s young season to feature some upsets, and my week’s record of 9 correct and 7 wrong, after 3 good weeks of predictions, reflected that. My record after four weeks now stands at 44 right and 20 wrong. Here are my week 5 picks:

Philadelphia at Buffalo – Philly’s “Dream Team” is reeling with a 1-3 record. Although Buffalo’s offense is built perfectly to attack the major weaknesses in the Eagle defense, the Eagles need this game badly to stay afloat in their division and unfortunately for Bills’ fans, they will be the team that “circles the wagons” this week, riding a big game by Michael Vick against the Bills’ still-progressing defense  to a hard fought win.

New Orleans at Carolina – Cam Newton has been tearing up defenses so far in his rookie season and the Saints’ defense hasn’t been very good, so this could be a spot for an upset, but I think Drew Brees will rise to the occasion and do whatever it takes to outscore Newton and the Panthers, giving New Orleans a big division win.

Oakland at Houston – the Raiders’ early-season schedule is a real gauntlet, and they face another big test on the road at Houston. The Texans are beginning to look like they mean business this year. Their win over the Steelers last week was impressive and they’ll keep up the positive momentum with a win here.

Kansas City at Indianapolis – this is a matchup of 2 teams having extremely disappointing seasons, mostly due to major injuries. Both teams put together good efforts last week, but coming off a short week after playing on Monday night, the Colts should struggle. The Chiefs get a big road win to keep their slim division race hopes alive.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville – this figures to be a low scoring game, since both teams have strong defenses and both start rookie quarterbacks. I’ll go with the Bengals to win on the road.

Arizona at Minnesota – it’s just a matter of time before the Vikings go to rookie Christian Ponder at QB over Donovan McNabb in what is now a lost season. The Cardinals need this game if they are to contend in the NFC West. I’ll take the Cards on the road.

Seattle at New York Giants – kudos to Tom Coughlin for getting his team focused early in the year, as the Giants have at least been consistent in their efforts, and now are in good shape in the NFC East standings. They are too good to blow this game, and will rout the Seahawks at home.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh – I have serious doubts about whether Pittsburgh’s defense is as strong as it usually is, and the Titans have been surprisingly good in 2011. However, playing at home, I feel the Steelers will figure out a way to squeeze out a win they need badly.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco – I am now officially on the 49ers bandwagon. New coach Jim Harbaugh has recognized the opportunity his club has in a very weak division and so far, with a surprising 3-1 record, they are seizing that opportunity. San Fran wins a close game at home.

San Diego at Denver – the Broncos were embarrassed by Green Bay last week and will be motivated at home in a division game, but the Chargers are the better team and will pull out the win.

New York Jets at New England – last season, the Pats crushed the Jets 45-3 late in the year, then Rex Ryan’s crew turned the tables in the playoffs and upset the Pats. New York’s defense has so far not lived up to expectations this season, and Tom Brady will light them up and lead New England to a big win.

Green Bay at Atlanta – rematch of last year’s playoff game, won by the Packers in a rout. Atlanta will be ready this time, but the Pack is still a better team and will win a close contest.

Chicago at Detroit – Lions’ first Monday night appearance in years, and it’s a big test on the road against the defending division champs. The home field advantage should be huge for Detroit, in fact, too big for Bear QB Jay Cutler to handle. The Lions win their fifth straight to stay even with Green Bay in the NFC North.

When Marv Levy’s Bills were dominating the AFC in the early 1990s, amazingly, his teams would take criticism from the local media if they won games, but the wins weren’t convincing enough. He used to routinely say “It’s hard to win every week in the NFL, it takes everything you’ve got, it’s physically and emotionally draining.”  The 2011 version of the Bills learned that lesson on Sunday in Cincinnati, letting a 17-3 halftime lead evaporate before losing on a game-ending field goal by Mike Nugent as time expired. There was a lot of talk about the Bills possibly taking this game for granted, especially after rolling over the Bengals last year, but I don’t think the loss had anything to do with overconfidence. In fact, looking closely at both teams, the Bengals’ win isn’t really that surprising. The Bills had gone 3-0 on the strength of their offense being able to put points on the board almost at will, but without a doubt the Bengals’ defense was going to be the strongest the Bills faced and it was going to be difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. to keep up the pace of the first 3 weeks. It was going to take improvement by the defense to win this game, and that improvement should have been expected considering the Bengals were starting a rookie QB, Andy Dalton, had a running back facing suspension, Cedric Benson, and a rookie receiver as their main weapon, A.J. Green. The Bills’ defense did supply points in the first half on a heads-up interception by Bryan Scott, who grabbed the ball off the shoetops of a Bengal receiver and ran it in for the score. However, when they needed to make stops in the second half to slow down Cinci’s momentum, they couldn’t get the job done. They couldn’t stop Benson, who racked up 100 yards in a game he shouldn’t have even been playing in (he appealed his suspension and got a 1-week reprieve), and they allowed the rookie Dalton to look like a seasoned veteran as he led impressive drives when it counted most. For the second time this season, Leodis McKelvin was skewered by a rookie receiver as Green had a 100+ yard day, mostly making big plays over McKelvin. It’s a shame that Aaron Williams was hurt last week, since he most likely would have progressed to the point where he pushed McKelvin to the bench. Unfortunately his progress will be stymied. Maybe rookie 7th round pick Justin Rogers should be given a shot to start in McKelvin’s spot – he certainly can’t do any worse. Another player the Bills have to  make a decision on is LB Shawne Merriman, who has been invisible. He was credited with a sack against the Bengals when he chased Dalton out of bounds for a loss while he was scrambling, but otherwise has been a non-factor. Both Danny Batten and Arthur Moats have made plays in limited chances, and it may be time to give both of these guys more playing time. Not only has Merriman done nothing to help the pass rush, which is supposed to be his strength, but Benson got most of his yards rushing to Merriman’s and Dwan Edwards’ side of the line. One thing is for sure – the Bills will be facing their second loss this week against Michael Vick and an angry Eagle team if they stand pat on defense.