Of all the predictions I posted for the division races in major league baseball back in July, the AL Central has turned out to be the most accurate. The Chicago White Sox, at that point, had battled back after a horrendous start to take the lead in the division. I commended the Sox for salvaging their season but correctly predicted that the Minnesota Twins would eventually win the division. At this point the Twins have a 7 game lead over Chicago and a 14 game edge on the Detroit Tigers, who gave away the division title last season by blowing a lead down the stretch, then losing a one-game playoff to the Twins. The Tigers have the best hitter in the American League in Miguel Cabrera and a host of other young stars, but they are about finished in this race now. The Sox could still make it close, but I believe the Twins will hold on and win it, then enter the post-season in a much better position than they did last year, when having to win the extra playoff game depleted their pitching staff going into a series with the powerful Yankees, who promptly swept them. The Twins are the model for low budget franchises. They are pretty much still doing business just like they did in the 1990s when they won a pair of World Series championships. Back then they had a great front office, the best scouts in baseball and a terrific and very underrated manager in Tom Kelly. They were built around one star player, the late Kirby Puckett, but were a gritty, never-say-die type of team. The Twins of today are following the same game plan – good front office, great scouts, and possibly baseball’s most underrated manager in Ron Gardenhire. They are built around hometown hero and MVP Joe Mauer and are a gritty team that always plays hard. The Twins have it down pat. They run their organization like a college sports program, anticipating when players will leave through free agency and having new players to plug in when they do. This year, they resigned Mauer to a big contract, which has to help the mood in the clubhouse, and sprinkled the roster with just the right amount, and the right type, of veteran players, like Carl Pavano, Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson. The Twins would like nothing better than to get another shot at the Yankees in the playoffs, and they just might get that wish granted.
Archive for the ‘Baseball’ Category
MLB – 3-Way Battle In AL East
In an earlier post handicapping the AL East, I named the defending champion New York Yankees as a lock to get into the post-season, and commented on whether the Tampa Bay Rays would be able to hang in with them for the long haul. I also wrote off the Boston Red Sox as having no chance to stay in the race. I still don’t think there is any question that the Yanks will be in post-season play, but they may not win this division. Still, even if they slip up and are overtaken for the division title, in my mind the Yankees are still the favorite to win it all. They have been odds-on favorites to repeat as champs since before the season began, and that was before they added the bats of Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns, and strengthened their bullpen by acquiring Kerry Wood. The Yankees leave no stone unturned when it comes to making sure they are fully equipped to take on all competition, and this season is no exception. So I’m not completely convinced that the Yanks will hold off the Rays, or for that matter even possibly the Red Sox, and win the division, but I am convinced that either way the Bombers will go further in the playoffs than any other AL team. The Red Sox, to their credit, have managed to hang around and stay within a half dozen games or so of the lead. I still feel they will succumb to all the injuries that have plagued them all season and fall short, but there’s no doubt they are a team to be reckoned with and may have a big say in who wins the division even if they don’t. I don’t think there is any doubt that this division, possibly the strongest in baseball now that Buck Showalter has Baltimore playing competitively, will send 2 teams into the playoffs. I’ll stick with my original prediction that those 2 teams will be the New York and Tampa Bay, but not necessarily in that order.
MLB – How The West Will Be Won – NL West
In an earlier post handicapping the National League West division race this season, I had the surprising young San Diego Padres fighting off the competition in what at that time was a 4 team race, and winning the division. I cited the team’s strong pitching, exciting young lineup and manager Bud Black as reasons they would win, and so far they’ve come through. I also said that their strongest competition would come from the Los Angeles Dodgers, but instead, another team with great pitching, the San Francisco Giants, have stayed neck and neck with the Padres. I had the Giants, and also the Colorado Rockies, falling out of the race eventually. At this point the Padres and Giants are even in the standings, and the Dodgers and Rockies are still within shouting distance of first place, so anything is still possible. With veteran Jon Garland and youngsters Mat Latos and Clayton Richard, the Padres have the best pitching staff in baseball that nobody’s ever heard of. Of course having Black, a former pitching coach, as manager is the reason why this staff has been so consistent, and it helps that the Padres have one of the game’s top closers in Heath Bell. Adrian Gonzalez has supplied the power all year, but the acquisition of Ryan Ludwick from St. Louis at the trade deadline added some more pop to San Diego’s lineup. The Padres’ roster has the right sprinkling of seasoned veterans, like David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston, Jr. and now Miguel Tejada, to help guide the youngsters. The Giants, with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez and the rejuvenated Barry Zito, probably have a deeper pitching staff than San Diego, and their lineup has more power, although it is spread out over the entire roster. The two teams open a huge three game series tonight in San Fran that will go a long way toward deciding the race. Between the Dodgers and Rockies, I’d have to pick Colorado as the team most likely of the two to stay in the race, despite picking L.A. to battle the Padres earlier. The Dodgers just have too many problems with the ownership divorce battle and getting next to nothing from Manny Ramirez. Of course, the bottom line is I expect only one team from this division to qualify for the post-season, and I’ll stay with my original pick, the Padres.
MLB – Cards Slip Past Reds – NL Central
Perhaps the most interesting divisional race in major league baseball just completed its’ latest chapter as the St. Louis Cardinals completed a three game sweep of the upstart Cincinnati Reds, re-establishing their place, for now, as the dominant team in the NL Central. The series was highlighted by a huge brawl in the second game that will likely result in suspensions. The brawl got ugly, but it might be the spark that ignites a new rivalry in the division. The Cards, one of baseball’s best and most storied franchises, have long dominated this division and have had a long-standing rivalry with the Chicago Cubs. In recent years the Cubbies have been the strongest challenger to manager Tony LaRussa’s team but the Cubs once again have drifted completely out of the race as manager Lou Piniella’s career winds down toward his retirement at the end of the season. The Reds have hung tough all year, holding onto first place until being knocked off that perch by the Cards. Cincinnati still has the horses to recover, but it had to be deflating to get swept by the team they’ve described as “complainers and whiners”, one of the comments that helped ignite the brawl. The Cardinals may be complainers and whiners but they are also winners, something the Reds still have to establish. Brandon Phillips, the trash-talking all-star second baseman for Cincinnati, was in the middle of the tussle. But he was 2 – for- 14 in the series and was basically a non-factor. Phillips has got to find a way to back up the talk with some consistent play if his club is going to somehow climb back ahead of the Cards. St. Louis has the game’s best hitter in Albert Pujols, a tremendous pitching staff anchored by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, a seasoned manager in LaRussa and most importantly a veteran post-season tested team. The sweep of the Reds should give the Cardinals the boost they need to not only stay on top of the division but start to move away from the pack. I still like Dusty Baker’s Reds to make a run at the post-season, but they may have to start targeting the wild card.
MLB – Contenders and Pretenders – NL East
I wrote a blog back in July handicapping the pennant races in major league baseball and so far, looking back at that post, I haven’t been too far off the mark, with one exception. I made the mistake of buying into the hype instead of trusting my gut instincts, and picked the New York Mets to win the NL East. It looks like the Mets are repeating recent history and slowly falling out of the race, hovering around the .500 mark while the Braves and Phillies battle for the division lead. I had originally picked the Phils to win the wild card and the Braves to drop out of the race, so even though they are a couple games behind at this point, I feel the defending NL champs will overtake Atlanta and win the division again. The Braves suffered a big blow when starting pitcher Kris Medlen went down with an elbow injury (he was 6-2, and the team 13-1 in his starts). Also, all-star Martin Prado is on the disabled list, and Chipper Jones and rookie sensation Jason Heyward have battled knee problems. They’ll get no sympathy from the Phillies, as they have had injury troubles all year and still stayed in the race. Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard have all had stints on the DL this season. Waiver-wire trade acquisition Mike Sweeney, who has helped fill the gap in Howard’s absence, could be a factor in helping keep the Fightin’ Phils afloat as the season wears down. The race will probably be decided when the 2 teams meet for a total of six times in late September and early October. I’ll say that Philadelphia’s playoff-hardened experience of the last 2 years will overcome the emotional lift the Braves should get from playing out the last of retiring manager Bobby Cox’s career, and the Phillies will win the NL East crown.
MLB – Sizing Up The Races
The major league baseball season now heads into the second half as its’ All-Star game, which is the closest thing to a real display of the actual sport as any of the pro all-star games, is now concluded. For the first time in 13 seasons the National League won and whatever team wins the NL pennant will now have home field advantage over it’s AL opponent. Figuring out which teams in both leagues will persevere into the post-season is even harder this year than usual. In the American League, the New York Yankees are a given. In an earlier post I posed the question of whether the Tampa Bay Rays would be able to stay with the Yanks for the long haul, and so far they have. The Chicago White Sox have risen from the dead to take over the lead in the AL Central, and the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers are still contending. The expectation early on was that the Los Angeles Angels would win the AL West, but the Texas Rangers had other plans, and have shown they mean business by acquiring Cliff Lee for their rotation. I’m going to go out on a limb and write off the Boston Red Sox right now. I don’t expect them to remain a post-season threat. I also see the Twins overtaking both Detroit and Chicago to win the Central, and the Rangers to hold on and win the West, especially now that they have Lee. I see the Rays as the AL Wild Card, leaving the Angels, Chisox, Tigers and Red Sox empty-handed. In the National League, all 3 divisions have great races going, with multiple teams involved in 2 of the divisions. I expect St. Louis, with their experience, to out-wrestle the Cincinnati Reds for the NL Central crown. In the East, I’m starting to believe in the New York Mets. I see them winning the division, with the Phillies grabbing the wild card and the Braves falling out of the race eventually. There are 4 teams battling for the NL West title, and I see only one of them surviving into post-season play. My choice to win this tight division are the surprising San Diego Padres. They have strong pitching, a young, exciting lineup and a great manager in Bud Black. I think Joe Torre’s L.A. Dodgers will give them the toughest battle among the remaining division teams still alive, with the Rockies and Giants falling out of the race eventually.
The Man Who Changed The Game
When Oakland A’s owner Charles O. Finley failed to make a life insurance payment on a policy in pitcher Jim “Catfish” Hunter’s contract in 1974, making Hunter a free agent, he had no idea what he was unleashing on major league baseball. The year before, in 1973, the New York Yankees had been purchased by a group led by George Steinbrenner, and little did anyone know at that time what an effect the shipping tycoon from Cleveland would have on sports in America. Steinbrenner, who initially made the statement, “I’m going to be a hands off owner”, didn’t exactly live up to that. He proceeded to aggressively sign any free agent player that he felt could help his team, and relentlessly pursued World Series titles with his checkbook like no other owner would even imagine. The Yanks pretty much tore the heart out of Finley’s 3-time champion Oakland A’s team by signing away Hunter and slugger Reggie Jackson, and the additions of Goose Gossage and Don Gullett, along with some shrewd trades, built the Yanks into 2 time champions in that era. Steinbrenner was a perfectionist. This story was told on ESPN after Steinbrenner’s passing yesterday, by Rob Parker. One night George had invited some friends to his owner’s box for a game, and the friends showed up late because they had been delayed in the stadium parking lot. The next day as Parker, a sportswriter, pulled into the press lot, he saw Steinbrenner in the lot parking cars. He asked George, “What are you doing out here?” Steinbrenner’s reply – “I’m going to show these guys how to run a parking lot!” His stubborn ways made him as hated at times as he is loved now that he has passed away. His hirings and firings of manager Billy Martin were almost like an Abbott and Costello comedy routine. He certainly wasn’t perfect. I mean, how can ANYBODY have a falling out with a jovial guy like Yogi Berra? At the end of the day, however, you can’t deny Steinbrenner’s insatiable desire to not only win but win championships. Any fan that says they wouldn’t want him as the owner of the team they root for would be lying. He never cheated the fans. Stories of his loyalty and quiet charitable contributions have come out over the last 2 days also. He was rushed to the hospital when he suffered his heart attack that had a sign outside advertising the “Steinbrenner Children’s Emergency Unit”. When Steinbrenner was young and trying to break into sports, Lou Saban hired him as an assistant football coach when he became head coach at Northwestern, and took Steinbrenner with him when he moved on to Purdue. Saban’s nomadic coaching career is well known, and when he seemingly ran out of options in the football world after changing jobs almost every year (or at least it seemed that way), Steinbrenner hired him as a vice president with the Yankees in 1981. I’m about the furthest thing from being a New York Yankee fan as there is, but there is no denying the impact Steinbrenner’s term as Yankee owner has had on baseball and the sports world in general. Certainly every major league player who is collecting paychecks on a massive contract should thank him.
MLB – Relief Pitchers
Today’s sports card of the day is of one of the pioneers of relief pitching in baseball, Roy Face of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it got me to thinking how much pitching has become specialized in major league baseball today. In the past starting pitchers were expected to finish what they started, and horses like Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal and Wilbur Wood would be upset if they didn’t complete their starts. I believe Wood once won both ends of a doubleheader, although he didn’t start both games and was a knuckleball pitcher which is less strain on the arm. In today’s game, a starter is considered to have made a “quality start” if he lasts 5 innings, and then the game gets turned over to the specialists, the middle relievers, the “set up man”, and finally, the “closer”. Pitchers are paid enormous amounts of money to come into a game and get 3 outs (sometimes only 1 or 2), then if they come in for an inning 2 nights in a row, they need to be rested. Yes, I did just roll my eyes. Don’t even get me started on pitch counts. For better or worse, the game is what it is now, and the role of closer has evolved into a much-respected position in baseball. New York’s Mariano Rivera has elevated the position to new heights. In the 1960s there were relievers who began the “closer evolution”, like Face, Hoyt Wilhelm and Ron Perranoski of the Dodgers. The first pitcher that I remember who started to glamorize the position was Rollie Fingers (pictured above) of the three-time World Series champion Oakland A’s in the early 1970s. His handlebar mustache paved the way for the mean-looking facial hair look of guys like Rich Gossage, Bruce Sutter and later on Dennis Eckersley. So the days of Koufax, Drysdale, Claude Osteen and Johnny Podres starting games and once in awhile turning the late innings over to Perranoski are over. Now every team has a five man starting rotation with each starter getting at least 4 days rest between starts, and a bullpen loaded with short relievers, long relievers, mop up men, set up men, left-hand specialists and closers to finish the job for them. When I see how many of those starting pitchers wind up on the disabled list, it makes me wonder if progress is always for the best, and gives me a greater appreciation for modern day guys like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia, for whom the complete game is not a lost art.
MLB – All Star Fan Voting (NL)
Just as the American League All Star fan voting is seemingly dominated by fans of the World Series champion New York Yankees, the National League voting is lopsided favoring the NL champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Phils have players at or near the top of the ballot at every position. At first base, the fans have gotten it right so far. Albert Pujols of St. Louis, the best player in the NL, has a sizeable lead over Philly’s Ryan Howard. I’m sure both players will be on the all star squad and Pujols should be the starter. Joey Votto of the Reds deserves some consideration also. At second base Chase Utley of the Phils leads the voting, and is deserving, but he’s injured right now and the second place player, Atlanta’s Martin Prado, is a capable replacement. Jimmy Rollins slightly trails Florida’s Hanley Ramirez at shortstop, and the vote is right in my mind, despite the negative attention Ramirez brought on himself early in the season. Placido Polanco of the Phils leads the 3rd base voting, but my choice would be the player in 2nd place, the Mets’ David Wright. My choice for NL catcher would be a sentimental one, currently in third place on the ballot, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez of Washington. Two of the three players leading in the outfield voting are good choices – Ryan Braun of the Brewers and the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier. The third player is Atlanta rookie Jason Heyward but he has said he won’t play in the game because he’s nursing an injury. For this last starting spot, I’ll go with a dark horse, the Cubs’ Marlon Byrd.
MLB – All Star Fan Voting (AL)
The fan voting for the major league All Star game is coming to a close soon, and as usual, a lot of the voting is a popularity contest rather than players being voted in on merit. It’s not a big deal when this happens because the all-star game managers usually right any wrongs when they pick the backup players. Looking at the American League voting so far, obviously the New York Yankees are dominating. They could wind up with starters at every infield position by the time the voting ends. In my mind, the Yanks’ middle infielders are deserving of their spots. Robinson Cano is having an outstanding season and is clearly the top choice at 2nd base. There was a time when it seemed that every team in the AL had a great shortstop, and every year there was debate as to who deserved to be the all-star starter. Well, Derek Jeter is the last man standing among that group and deserves the starting nod for longevity alone. Throw in the fact that he’s still an outstanding player and the choice is clear. At third base Evan Longoria holds a slight lead over the Yanks’ Alex Rodriguez and I’m hoping it stays that way. Some of Longoria’s votes may be from people who thought they were voting for the star of Desperate Housewives to win an emmy but that’s OK, as long as it keeps ARod out of the lineup that’s fine with me. At first base Mark Texiera is a good hitter and an outstanding fielder but his stats so far this season don’t add up to an All-Star game starting spot. I like Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, and Chicago’s Paul Konerko is always underrated and should be recognized also. Joe Mauer of the Twins is a lock at catcher and that pick is a no-brainer. In the outfield Ichiro Suzuki of Seattle is an automatic choice, but I’m not a fan of either Carl Crawford or Nelson Cruz, who stand 2 and 3 in the voting at this point. My choices would be Torii Hunter of the Angels (especially with the game being played in Anaheim) and Cleveland’s Shin- Soo Choo, for no other reason than I am a die-hard Indians’ fan. I would say the designated hitter choice of the fans so far, ex-Angel Vladimir Guerrero, is a good one also.