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Things were looking bad last week as the results from the 1 PM games came in and I had barely a plus-side rating with 5 games picked right and 4 wrong. But I wound up going 6-1 for the 4 PM, Sunday night and Monday night games and rebounded to go  11-5 for the week, bringing the two week tally to a respectable 21 right and 10 wrong. Here are the week 3 predictions:

Buffalo at New England – the unknown factor here is how much impact the QB change to Ryan Fitzpatrick will have on the impotent Bills’ offense. Probably not much, as the Patriots should be angry and focused after losing to the Jets. Add in the fact that they’ve won 13 in a row over the Bills and this game should be the easiest on the schedule to pick. Naturally, I’m going to pick the Bills to pull off a huge upset, basically on a hunch.

Tennessee at New York Giants – Chris Johnson should rebound from a poor performance last week to give the Titans a strong running game, but I like the Giants, also trying to rebound from an abysmal game, at home, in a low scoring game.

Cincinnati at Carolina – I’m still not sold on the Bengals, especially on the road, but it will take time for Jimmy Clausen to settle in and get comfortable in his new role as the Panthers’ starting QB, so I see a hard-fought Cincinnati win in this one.

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay – the Steelers are getting it done with defense and smoke and mirrors on offense so far, and I don’t see that changing this week, even though Tampa QB Josh Freeman has been impressive in the early going. Facing the Steeler defense will be a whole new experience for him, and not a pleasant one.

Cleveland at Baltimore – division rivalry game between the old Browns and the new Browns, and this should be a Baltimore victory as the Ravens focus to get back on track after losing in Cinci last week. If they are going to be serious Super Bowl contenders they can’t afford division losses 2 weeks in a row.

San Francisco at Kansas City – the 49ers are the better team in this matchup and should be confident after playing the defending champion Saints tough on Monday night, but I worry about their consistency. This is the perfect spot, a road game with a short preparation week, for a Niner letdown, but they are 0-2 and can’t afford too many more losses and should pull this game out.

Dallas at Houston – two teams going in opposite directions so far this season. This is going to be an epic struggle, as the Cowboys need this game badly but the Texans will be treating it like it’s a Super Bowl. Houston wins a shootout and Wade Phillips spends the week afterward answering questions about his job security.

Detroit at Minnesota – the Vikings have to win this game  to keep from falling completely out of the NFC North race, so they will find a way to pull it out, although the Lions will keep it close.

Atlanta at New Orleans – the Falcons will be highly motivated to show that they can challenge New Orleans for supremacy in the NFC South, but the Saints have too much firepower on offense and started to get it together on Monday night, and will win this game.

Washington at St. Louis – the Redskins win a close game on the road as their defense schools Sam Bradford, and Donovan McNabb makes just enough plays to put this in the win column.

Philadelphia at Jacksonville – there’s no way Michael Vick stumbles now that he has the chance to keep the starting QB job. The Jaguars will show some pride after getting blasted in San Diego last week and keep it close, but Philly wins it with a big fourth quarter.

Indianapolis at Denver –  Peyton Manning plays a methodical, move – the – chains style of game and the Colts win easily to stay close to the Texans in their division race.

Oakland at Arizona – the Raiders pull a mild surprise by winning a low scoring, hard fought game on the road. Darren McFadden continues to establish himself as a back to be taken seriously in the league, and Bruce Gradkowski plays his usual style, getting just enough done to get a win.

San Diego at Seattle – the Seahawks look like they are going to be inconsistent and unpredictable this year. They will play well in this game because they’re at home, but the Chargers will win.

New York Jets at Miami – Miami’s defense is impressive and will throttle Mark Sanchez and the Jet running game, while the Dolphin running game gets it done and keeps the team unbeaten and the surprise frontrunner in the AFC East.

Green Bay at Chicago – the NFL’s oldest rivalry, and the Bears opened some eyes by winning in Dallas last week, giving them lots of momentum going into this game. The Packers eventually need to figure out how they are going to replace Ryan Grant’s contributions in the running game. A lot of experts picked the Packers to reach the Super Bowl this year, and that talk will become louder as Aaron Rodgers leads them to a big win in this one, bringing the Bears back down to earth.