Week five was another forgettable one as I slipped below the .500 mark again, picking 6 right and 8 wrong. That puts the season record at 42 on the plus side, and 33 wrong. Here are the picks for week six:
Miami at Green Bay – Miami gets the Packers at a perfect time, as QB Aaron Rodgers is recovering from a concussion, and star tight end Jermichael Finley is lost for the season. Green Bay already lost its’ top running back, so their offense is in trouble. Also, LB Clay Matthews is hurt so the defense will be hurting. Miami should win this game using a large dose of their running game, featuring Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams.
San Diego at St. Louis – picking the Chargers to win scares me, but this is the type of game they have to find a way to win to stay in contention in the AFC West, and I believe they will. The Rams got plastered by Detroit last week so they’ll be motivated and should play better, especially at home, but the Chargers will pull out the victory.
Baltimore at New England – rematch of last year’s playoff game that saw the Ravens shock the Pats by running the ball down their throats, forcing turnovers and winning easily. This is New England’s first game without Randy Moss, and even though they re-acquired Deion Branch to replace him the passing game will need time to mesh. Baltimore is too good of a team and their defense will be the difference. The Ravens win on the road, in a game that’ll be much closer than the playoff game last year.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh – this game has blowout written all over it. Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup for the Steelers after serving his suspension, and the Browns start rookie Colt McCoy as both Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are hurt. Pittsburgh’s defense dominates the game and the Steelers win big.
Kansas City at Houston – this game may sort out which of these teams is an actual contender, and which is the pretender. The Texans are usually better at home, but Kansas City’s defensive effort in a tough loss last week at Indianapolis was impressive. I’ll pick the Chiefs to continue their progress by upsetting Houston on the road.
Detroit at New York Giants – in picking last week’s games I commented that the Lions were a better team than their winless record showed, and they came up with a huge home win over the Rams. The Giants’ defense, however, is looking great and should bottle up the young Lions at home. Lions’ standout receiver Calvin Johnson is banged up and the Lions need all their weapons to compete. New York should win this game handily.
Atlanta at Philadelphia – it’s uncertain whether Michael Vick will be ready to play against his old team, but regardless who is under center for the Eagles this week, I’ll take Atlanta to win on the road. The Falcons consider themselves to be serious contenders and with division rival New Orleans struggling, they smell blood.
Seattle at Chicago – hopefully Jay Cutler is back at QB for the Bears, but even if it’s Todd Collins, the Bears’ defense should throttle the inconsistent Seahawks. With the game being played at Soldier Field, I like the Bears in a rout as Seattle historically doesn’t travel well.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – this is a chance for the young Buccaneers to make a statement in their division, and announce their arrival as a contending team. I don’t think they’re quite there yet, and the Saints have got to play with some urgency this week after that shocking loss to Arizona last week. The Saints win a close game with their passing game taking over in the fourth quarter.
New York Jets at Denver – The Jets are on a roll and really have looked liked one of the top teams in the league so far. This is a tough test for them on the road, but I feel their defense will confuse Kyle Orton enough to force a turnover or two which will be the difference in the game. The Jets win a close game with a big 4th quarter.
Oakland at San Francisco – the 49ers were everybody’s preseason pick to win the NFC West, and they are 0-5. Are they ever going to win a game? The answer is yes – this week at home against the Raiders. Any team that faces the Raiders winds up in a dogfight, but the Niners are desperate enough to win that fight.
Dallas at Minnesota – this game is between 2 teams that were favored to contend for the Super Bowl this year, and both are struggling. The season may be over for the team that loses, and their head coach goes immediately to the hot seat. The Vikings blew out the Cowboys at home in last year’s playoffs, and the ‘Boys show no signs of coming out of their funk, in which they’ve played inconsistent, undisciplined football. The Vikings win this game, with Brett Favre having his best day of the year so far, taking advantage of Dallas’ mistake-prone secondary.
Indianapolis at Washington – Mike Shanahan has the ‘Skins playing over their heads, and Peyton Manning hasn’t been his usual surgical, pinpoint self so far this year. However, he usually rises to the occasion in prime time games so I see the Colts winning on the road.
Tennessee at Jacksonville – the Titans have been disappointing so far this year, and the Jaguars a surprising success. This is a division game so it should be close, but the Titans’ defense will be the difference as they harrass David Garrard all day. On offense, the Titans will ride a huge day by Chris Johnson to a well-earned victory.