The Buffalo Bills did very little in the preseason to instill confidence in their fan base that they’ll be able to make any improvements this year. They lost all 4 games and none of the games was very inspiring. However, history shows you can’t put any stock in exhibition game results when it comes to predicting regular season success. It’s also important to mention that the 4 teams who play in the AFC East division managed one win total for the entire preseason, by New England. The Bills, Jets and Dolphins were all winless. With that in mind, here is my season preview of the 2012 Buffalo Bills:
Front Office / Coaching
The Bills will be relying heavily on this year’s draft picks to make major contributions as they look to try and carry their early-season success from 2011 into an entire year, so the “grade” for the 2012 draft class will be evident as the season plays out. Five picks will have opportunities to contribute in big ways, including 2 starters – CB Stephon Gilmore and LT Cordy Glenn, the team’s top 2 picks. Third round choice WR T.J. Graham was impressive in preseason and looks like he’ll be a contributor as both a slot receiver and a deep threat. LB Nigel Bradham could push for playing time behind Arthur Moats, and K John Potter was kept on the roster specifically as a kickoff specialist. C.J. Spiller and Moats look like the only players from Buddy Nix’s 2010 draft who are going to be legitimate NFL players. There are 7 players from the 2011 class on the roster, including 4 starters.
The heat should be on coach Chan Gailey to produce a winner this season, his third as head coach of the team. Dave Wannstedt, as assistant head coach and defensive coordinator, is a major upgrade over George Edwards, and new QB coach David Lee will be counted on to help smooth out the rough spots in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s game. The coaching staff has to figure out how to keep the team from collapsing when faced with adversity, which is what seemed to happen most of the second half of 2011.
Offense
The offensive unit is immediately improved from the end of last season due to the return from injury of 2 key members – RB Fred Jackson and C Eric Wood. Both were performing at a Pro Bowl level before they were lost for the season. Last season also saw the emergence of Spiller as a top notch NFL back, after Jackson was hurt, and also of TE Scott Chandler. Stevie Johnson, of course, has cemented himself as one of the top receivers in the league. He became the first wideout in team history to surpass 1,000 yards receiving in successive years in 2011. Donald Jones, who was counted on to contribute in 2011 but battled injuries all year, is back and looked solid if not spectacular in preseason, while the rookie Graham is an unknown, but didn’t look out of place in the offense in the exhibition games. The offensive line had a decent year in 2011 despite going through a lot of shuffling due to injuries, and if they can stay healthy and develop together they should improve even more.
Defense
This unit looked soft and disorganized for most of 2011, hence the switch to Wannstedt as coordinator. On paper, things almost positively have to improve, with Kyle Williams back from the IR (another player who was performing at a Pro Bowl level before getting hurt), and the additions of free agents Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to the defensive line. Three 2011 draftees will be starters on the defensive unit also and will be counted on to take their games to the next level in their second years – DT Marcel Dareus, LB Kelvin Sheppard and CB Aaron Williams. Again, “on paper” the Bills appear to be deep on defense and have the potential to be not only an improved unit but a great and dominating one. Of course, the games aren’t played on paper, and the defense has to develop more of a killer instinct and find ways to stop giving up big plays at the worst times during games.
Special Teams
Bruce DeHaven built quite a legacy as a special teams coach under Marv Levy in the Bills’ Super Bowl era, and by the end of last season had the team back at or near the top of almost all special teams statistical categories. The club is solid and seasoned at all the important special teams positions, from long snapper Garrison Sanborn to punter Brian Moorman to kicker Rian Lindell, and may have uncovered this generation’s version of a special teams demon in Leodis McKelvin, a supposed first round draft bust who has reinvented himself as a top punt returner, “gunner” on kick coverage and even a slot coverage cornerback on defense. The team showed a great commitment to the importance of special teams by keeping rookie kickoff specialist John Potter on the roster also.
Here’s a position-by-position look at the Bills’ roster going into the 2012 season:
Quarterback
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the unquestioned leader of the offense, but for the second year in a row the same question remains about his game – can he cut down on the costly turnovers and run an efficient, error-free attack for this team? He had accuracy issues in preseason, especially on deep throws. Tyler Thigpen made the final roster almost by default after the Vince Young experiment failed, and probably won’t stay around long if newcomer Tarvaris Jackson can show any promise at all. Brad Smith is supposed to be the third QB, but he is mostly just a “wildcat” novelty.
Running Back
RB Fred Jackson
Fred Jackson’s return to health can’t be overstated as a positive for the Bills to have a successful 2012 season. He was playing at a league MVP level when he was lost for the year. The one positive that came out of the loss of Jackson was the emergence of C.J. Spiller as a top runner in his absence. It will be paramount for Gailey and the offensive braintrust to find ways to exploit the talents of both Jackson and Spiller. Tashard Choice made the team as a third back and should be an important role player as the long season unfolds. Fullback Corey McIntyre is an unsung leader on the team, and valuable as a lead blocker, special teamer and occasional receiver out of the backfield. That last sentence, concerning McIntyre, is a reprint, word-for-word, about the tough FB from last year’s season preview. It’s still the truth, and speaks of his consistent contribution to the Bills. A new addition to the 2012 Bills is “H-back” Dorin Dickerson, who can play tight end or fullback and even line up as a wideout. He’s a tough blocker, too, and his versatility has to help the team.
Receivers
WR David Nelson
The Bills’ offense routinely sets up in 4 and 5 wide receiver sets, often with an empty backfield, yet amazingly kept only 5 wide receivers on the opening day roster, 6 if you count third QB Brad Smith. If nothing else, the top 3 of Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones and David Nelson have at least developed a good rapport with Fitzpatrick. The fourth receiver, the rookie Graham, seemed to run good routes and make few mistakes in the preseason while playing mostly with the backup QBs. Smith is the fifth WR, but starts the year hobbled, so look for Jackson, Spiller and Dickerson to see action lined up wide early on. Ruvell Martin, cut and then re-signed, is on the roster mostly for special teams. Chandler is now entrenched as the starting tight end and seems poised for a big year, as he too has developed a good rapport with Fitz over time. Lee Smith is the backup TE and is a good blocker.
Offensive Line
OG Andy Levitre
The offensive line, if everyone stays healthy, should be one of the strengths of the Bills this season. The unit did a good job of both pass and run blocking in 2011 despite having to go with patchwork units a lot of the time. When center Eric Wood was lost for the season due to injury, the line lost of lot of its’ continuity, as Andy Levitre was forced to move to center, which left 2 positions in flux. This year, the unit will begin the season with some stability, with Wood returning to anchor the line, Levitre, who is clearly one of the unsung heroes on the roster, returning to his familiar guard spot, and rookie Cordy Glenn starting at the all-important left tackle spot. The other 2 starting spots are manned by gems mined from the waiver wire by Nix – guard Kraig Urbik and right tackle Erik Pears. It’s rare that any team’s offensive line makes it through a full season without injuries, but the Bills have added some depth to deal with that problem. Chris Hairston, who was supposed to challenge Glenn for the left tackle spot but wound up spending the preseason filling in for Pears while he dealt with injuries, is a solid replacement for either tackle spot, and may even start the season starting in place of Pears. Colin Brown did a good job at center after Wood went down last year, and can also play guard. Chad Rinehart, another waiver wire acquisition, backs up the guards and big Sam Young joins Hairston as much needed depth at the tackle spots.
Defensive Line
DE Mark Anderson
When the Bills cut veteran Dwan Edwards, it was a clear sign that the front office had made huge upgrades with this unit since the end of the 2011 season. Of course, the biggest upgrade is the return of tackle Kyle Williams to the starting lineup. Add in the expected maturing of last year’s top draft pick, Dareus, at the other tackle spot, and the additions of free agent pass-rushing ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, and the Bills have the potential to field the top defensive line in the division. There is adequate depth here also, with veterans Chris Kelsay and Spencer Johnson, along with 2 players who’ve shown flashes as playmakers but need to work on their consistency – Alex Carrington and Kyle Moore.
Linebackers
LB Nick Barnett
The Bills’ linebacking corps, in 2011, never made a whole lot of sense to me. Players like Kelsay, Spencer Johnson and Carrington were listed as linebackers, and a career LB like Shawne Merriman was considered a pass rushing defensive end. This year, with new coordinator Wannstedt switching the base formation to a 4-3, things appear to be back to normal, with defensive linemen playing on the defensive line and linebackers playing linebacker. The team’s linebacking corps isn’t considered a strength, but if the Bills figure they can cut loose a player like Merriman, they must feel good about the players they have at the positions. Outside backer Nick Barnett is the best and most experienced of the group. He’s a playmaker, and has a valuable attribute not found on the roster – he played on a Super Bowl winning team in Green Bay. Kelvin Sheppard will be the starter at middle linebacker, and must show some development from his rookie year if the Bills’ defense is to improve. It appears that Arthur Moats has won the other starting outside LB job, and I’m hoping he can expand his penchant for making plays in the few opportunities he’s gotten into becoming a star now that he gets his ultimate chance. Kirk Morrison provides veteran depth behind Moats, while youngsters Chris White and rookie Nigel Bradham should help out as backups as they gain experience. Veteran safety Bryan Scott is listed on the roster as an outside backer, but make no mistake, his role will be in pass coverage against teams that run 4 and 5 receiver sets.
Defensive Backs
CB Leodis McKelvin
It will be interesting to see how the Bills’ secondary will do this year playing behind what should be an improved pass rush. One development that would help the team’s cause is if veteran Terrence McGee can stay healthy and hold down one cornerback spot. If not, it’ll be up to rookie Stephon Gilmore and second year man Aaron Williams to minimize big plays since opponents are sure to test both. Leodis McKelvin has nailed down the third corner position and will be mostly responsible for covering opponent’s slot receivers, while Bryan Scott tries to contain the tight ends. How successful they are, especially on third downs, will tell a lot about whether the defense improves in 2012. Buffalo is solid at the safety spots with George Wilson and Jairus Byrd, who is poised to have a big year. Backing up the safeties are Da’Norris Searcy and Delano Howell, a rookie who is the only undrafted free agent to make the Bills’ roster this year. Justin Rogers, who missed most of the preseason with injuries, is another backup corner who likely will make most of his contributions returning kickoffs.
Overview
Some pundits are picking the Bills to finish second in the AFC East and make the playoffs, while others are writing them off as also-rans who will struggle to finish with a .500 record. The team certainly excited their fan base by starting out the 2011 season with a 5-2 record, then completely folded, although they had major injuries to important players, to finish 6-10. There are 2 major factors that will decide how much success the team will have in 2012. The first is whether Fitzpatrick returns to the early-season form he showed last year that earned him a new contract, or continues to pile up turnovers which plagued him in the second half of the year. If Fitzpatrick fails, the Bills will almost certainly begin the process of trying to find a different option for 2013, a new “franchise” quarterback. The second factor is whether the team, and more specifically the defense, can overcome their habit of losing all composure when they face adversity. The season finale in New England last year, when the Bills blew a 21-0 lead and were blown out 49-21, was a classic example of this. Other than Barnett and Wannstedt, and assistant GM Doug Whaley, the Bills have no one in the organization who has experienced winning, let alone winning Super Bowls. If the team is to become a playoff team, they will have to do it from within – young players will have to mature and figure out how to win, while veterans will have to get over the hump and convince the young guys, and themselves, that they can win. It’s a problem that a team like the Patriots doesn’t have. A sign to watch for as the season unfolds is if the Bills can pull out a couple of “signature” wins, which most likely happen in road games, that can help catapault them to a winning year.
It’s become a tradition for this post to include, for any Bills fans who need to get psyched a little more for the start of the season, the link below: