The Pittsburgh Steelers represented the American Conference in last season’s Super Bowl, and will surely be contenders again this year, but the rest of the conference looks strong also. Here are my 2011 predictions for the division races in the AFC:
AFC East
This looks like a 2-team race between New England and the New York Jets. In the playoffs last year the Jets finally figured out how to contain Tom Brady, and that will give them an edge this year. They have the top defense in the conference and will nose out the Pats to win the AFC East. Buffalo has been mired in mediocrity for a decade, mostly due to horrendous drafting, but they will escape the basement this year and finish third, beating out Miami. The Dolphins lost pretty much their entire running game, which has been their strength in recent years, and Reggie Bush is not going to be an every down runner. Plus coach Tony Sparano is on the hot seat. The Bills defense will be improved this year, enough to at least overtake the Fish. In fact, the top rookie in the division will be Bills’ defensive lineman Marcel Dareus.
AFC North
This should boil down to the annual battle between the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens for the division title. I believe this year the Ravens will overtake Pittsburgh and win the division. The team added a couple of key weapons to their offense in RB Ricky Williams and WR Lee Evans, and already have one of the NFL’s toughest defenses. The Cleveland Browns have been slowly rebuilding under Mike Holmgren, and should finish third in the division, behind young stars Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis. The situation in Cincinnati is a mess, with Carson Palmer “retired”, Cedric Benson facing assault charges and both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens having moved on. Despite having the division’s worst team, the Bengals do have the AFC North’s top rookie – WR A.J. Green.
AFC South
This division has been owned by the Indianapolis Colts, and every year the Houston Texans are picked to overtake them, then fail to do it. The Colts are starting the year with injury questions about Peyton Manning, who had neck surgery, and this is the year they will finally surrender the division crown. However, it won’t be the Texans who overtake them. I’ll pick the Colts second, and the Texans third, with Jacksonville surprising everybody and winning the division. The Jaguars are always competitive under coach Jack Del Rio, and I see them outlasting the 2 favorites and sneaking into first place at season’s end. The Tennessee Titans are starting over under new coach Mike Munchak, and by season’s end they will have the division’s biggest impact rookie – QB Jake Locker, but will finish last.
AFC West
Although they always have the best team in this division on paper, the San Diego Chargers never seem to be able to close the deal. This year they will, and I’m picking them to win the AFC West. Phillip Rivers is one of the top QBs in the NFL and has all his weapons back to start the year. The Oakland Raiders will climb past Kansas City and finish second under new coach Hue Jackson, mostly on the strength of their defense. It’ll be interesting to see if Terrelle Pryor eventually wins the starting QB job from Jason Campbell. The Kansas City Chiefs won the division last year but I see them finishing third this year and missing the playoffs. Denver has the division’s top rookie in LB Von Miller but will bring up the rear in the AFC West standings.