rayonsports.com

I wrote a blog back in July handicapping the pennant races in major league baseball and so far, looking back at that post, I haven’t been too far off the mark, with one exception. I made the mistake of buying into the hype instead of trusting my gut instincts, and picked the New York Mets to win the NL East. It looks like the Mets are repeating recent history and slowly falling out of the race, hovering around the .500 mark while the Braves and Phillies battle for the division lead. I had originally picked the Phils to win the wild card and the Braves to drop out of the race, so even though they are a couple games behind at this point, I feel the defending NL champs will overtake Atlanta and win the division again. The Braves suffered a big blow when starting pitcher Kris Medlen went down with an elbow injury (he was 6-2, and the team 13-1 in his starts). Also, all-star Martin Prado is on the disabled list, and Chipper Jones and rookie sensation Jason Heyward have battled knee problems. They’ll get no sympathy from the Phillies, as they have had injury troubles all year and still stayed in the race. Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard have all had stints on the DL this season. Waiver-wire trade acquisition Mike Sweeney, who has helped fill the gap in Howard’s absence, could be a factor in helping keep the Fightin’ Phils afloat as the season wears down. The race will probably be decided when the 2 teams meet for a total of six times in late September and early October. I’ll say that Philadelphia’s playoff-hardened experience of the last 2 years will overcome the emotional lift the Braves should get from playing out the last of retiring manager Bobby Cox’s career, and the Phillies will win the NL East crown.