So what kind of grade do the Buffalo Bills deserve at the midway point of the 2014 season? There have been some some exciting highs and disappointing lows, but the club has managed to keep its’ collective head above water with a 5-3 won/loss record heading into their bye week. Here is my analysis of how the Bills have fared, position by position, through eight games and what they’ll need to do to stay on course to earn a playoff spot in the season’s second half:
Front Office / Coaching
GM Doug Whaley made the bold move of trading away next year’s top draft pick to move up this year and pick Sammy Watkins, and that move looks like it will pay big dividends going forward. Whaley also did a good job of improving the overall depth of the roster through the rest of the draft and free agent signings. Head coach Doug Marrone hasn’t completely won me over yet as the man who can pull the franchise out of the doldrums and lead the team to a winning season. His quick hiring of Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator after Mike Pettine left to coach in Cleveland was a great move. The Bills’ defense through the first half of 2014 has been even better than last year’s unit. He stayed with special teams coach Danny Crossman and those units have been far better than last year’s, although a lot of the improvement can be attributed to Whaley’s stocking of the roster with better special teams players. Marrone gets high marks for making a quick decision to bench EJ Manuel at quarterback in favor of veteran Kyle Orton, a decision that was also bold and has proven so far to be correct. The negative on Marrone is his inability, to this point, to get the players to stop committing foolish and/or unnecessary penalties and mistakes, many of which have been a result of the immaturity of the players. In my mind, he has to lead this team to a winning record, not necessarily a playoff spot but a record above .500, with enough significant improvement to give fans hope for the future, to save his job. If the team falters to another 6-10 season with a second half collapse, then he gets piled onto the scrap heap of failed coaches along with Chan Gailey, Dick Jauron, Mike Mularkey, etc.
Quarterback
This position obviously has gone through a complete transition from the start of the season. Manuel was benched in favor of Orton, and the move has paid off with the veteran presence of Orton steadying the unit. The offense has been far from a dominant unit, but Orton has shown terrific leadership in guiding the team to 3 wins in 4 starts since he took over. Orton has made his share of mistakes, mostly turnovers and holding the ball a little too long at times resulting in sacks, but for a guy who joined the team after training camp was over and has had very little time to adapt to his teammates, he’s done a great job, with the hope being that he gets even better in the second half of the year. Although he was benched, Manuel’s future should still be bright. He has a good attitude and now gets a chance to step back and learn the position at a much easier pace. He was placed in a very tough spot, with the impending ownership change putting him in a position that if he failed, it could possibly cost a lot of people in the organization their jobs. It was a little too much to ask of a player who didn’t even get a complete rookie year in 2013 to progress, due to injuries.
Running Back
Just as the quarterback position has gone through a complete transition, the running back spots will have a totally different look for much of the second half of the year, although not by choice. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller went down with significant injuries in week seven against the Vikings, and now Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown will have to carry the load. Dixon was a free agent signee who figured to help mostly on special teams and short yardage situations, but now he’ll get a lot of playing time, at least until Jackson gets back. Brown was inactive for every game until week eight, but now will get a major amount of carries also. He was acquired by Whaley in a draft day trade, a deal that looked questionable when Brown was not dressing each week, but looks like a smart move now. Fullback Frank Summers has been a steady performer as a lead blocker, and with the injuries has even gotten a few touches in the running game that he normally wouldn’t have. Former Dallas Cowboy Phillip Tanner has been added to the roster for depth, but likely won’t stick around after Jackson and Spiller return.
Receivers
Since Orton took over as the starting quarterback, Watkins has emerged as a major playmaker on the receiving corps. He is exactly as advertised when he came out of college – a dynamic player with the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Besides Watkins, Robert Woods has been the other major downfield threat in the passing game. Chris Hogan started the year playing only on special teams, but now seems to have moved past Mike Williams on the depth chart as the third receiving option. Williams has hardly seen the ball since Orton has taken over, and was even de-activated for a game. The Bills need to figure out a way to utilize his talents more in the second half. Another non-contributor has been Marquise Goodwin, who is a top deep threat but can’t stay healthy. The same can be said for Marcus Easley, although he’s rarely ever used as a receiver, but is an important special teams gunner. One player who has to be thrilled that Orton is now under center is tight end Scott Chandler, who has become a favorite target of the veteran QB. The Bills have used some double tight end formations at times, and Orton has found both Chris Gragg and Lee Smith for red zone touchdowns. I’m not a big fan of Smith, who for the most part during his time here has seen very few snaps but always managed to get called for dumb penalties. In the last couple of games before the bye, he was at least trumping his mistakes by making some positive contributions, and it would be a big help if he continues that trend in the season’s stretch run.
Offensive Line
This unit has not been a strength of the team so far, but it is a work in progress and figures to get better in the second half. After Chris Williams was put on injured reserve with back problems early on, the line had two rookie starters in guard Cyril Richardson and tackle Seantrel Henderson, and both have had their ups and downs. That’s typical for rookies, especially on the O-line, but this unit has had the added handicap of having to adjust to a different quarterback (who plays a completely different style) and now all new running backs. Veterans Eric Wood at center and Cordy Glenn at left tackle have been mostly solid but have even had their own rough moments, which is probably due to all the unfamiliarity among the players on the unit. Guard Erik Pears supposedly grades out as one of the worst offensive linemen in the NFL, but he remains a starter, while Richardson was replaced by veteran Kraig Urbik in week eight. Second round draft pick Cyrus Kouandjio has been the only mostly disappointing player from the 2014 draft class, as he has struggled, but his upside, combined with the fact that offensive linemen generally need time to develop, makes it hard at this point to consider him a bust. Kouandjio’s struggles have been offset by the play of Henderson, a talented but supposedly troubled rookie who has grabbed his opportunity by the throat and cemented himself in the starting lineup. It’s somewhat puzzling that despite the problems on the line, veteran Chris Hairston has had very few chances to show what he can do.
Defensive Line
The defense overall is the strength of this team, and the defensive line is without a doubt the strongest part of that defense. The starting four of Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes all are Pro Bowl-caliber players. All four have taken their turns being disruptive players, and Dareus in particular is having a dominant year, leading the team in sacks, which is unusual for an interior lineman. What makes this unit really a problem for opposing teams, however, is the play of the four guys who back up the Pro Bowlers – Corbin Bryant, Stefan Charles, Jarius Wynn and Manny Lawson. They are all playmakers, and there is very little drop-off in performance when Schwartz rotates them in and out of the lineup.
Linebacker
This unit wasn’t particularly strong coming into the season, and when Kiko Alonso went down with a freak season-ending injury prior to training camp, all appeared lost. The remaining players have held their own, however, and taken full advantage of the dominating play by the D-line in front of them. Veteran Brandon Spikes was signed as a free agent to help shore up the team’s play against the run, a weakness of last year’s defense. As the starting middle linebacker, he has done just that. Although his statistics aren’t eye-popping, Spikes adds a tough, physical attitude to the unit that it lacked in the past. Nigel Bradham never showed much promise in his first couple of years here, but this season his play has improved dramatically for the most part, to the point where he’s earned a starting spot on the outside despite a one game drug suspension to start the year. Another free agent veteran signee, Keith Rivers, has been mostly steady at one of the outside spots, but the gem of the ‘backers through the first eight games is rookie Preston Brown, who was forced into action when Alonso went down. Brown has made his share of rookie mistakes, but he has made steady improvement as the season has progressed, filling in when needed. With his combination of speed and toughness, Brown has managed to both lead the team in tackles and make some plays in the back end defending passes. Two other veterans, Ty Powell and Larry Dean, are on the roster to add depth and help on special teams. The unit is rounded out by another rookie, Randell Johnson, who has also mostly contributed on special teams. He shows flashes of the same type of speed and power combination as Preston Brown, and could be a diamond in the rough in the future if he continues to improve. It’s clear that Whaley has a “type” of player he looks for when drafting linebackers.
Defensive Backs
The Bills lead the entire NFL in interceptions through the first half of the 2014 season, so their secondary players must be doing an adequate job. The starting cornerbacks have done mostly good work. Stephon Gilmore is supposed to be the team’s “shutdown” corner, and after a slow start his play is improving, and should get even better in the second half. On the other side, Leodis McKelvin has played better than Gilmore, showing great ball skills that he didn’t necessarily have in past seasons as he leads the league in picks with four. Whaley signed Buffalo native Corey Graham to add depth to the secondary, and the veteran has delivered, seeing action at both corner and safety and coming up with significant plays in that playing time. Nickell Robey has picked up where he left off last season as the club’s top nickel corner, while the other reserve corners – Ron Brooks and Ross Cockrell – have made most of their contributions on special teams. Starting safeties Aaron Williams and Da’Norris Searcy have had peaks and valleys, but mostly have been solid. Williams, especially, had the daunting task of replacing the departed Jairus Byrd, a Pro Bowler, and has more than held his own with his play and leadership. With a pair of young safeties going on injured reserve early in the year, Duke Williams has been getting more playing time on the back end than he expected, and has done a decent job, especially with his physical play against the run. Both Aaron Williams and Searcy have battled nagging injuries, so Duke Williams and Graham have had to fill in.
Special Teams
The special teams units have played head-and-shoulders better than last year’s units. They count a kickoff return touchdown (from Spiller), a blocked punt by Dixon and a game-winning 58 yard field goal from Dan Carpenter among their accomplishments this year. Adding Dixon and Graham to the roster immediately upgraded all the coverage units. The kicking game has been solid also. Carpenter has been money in the bank on field goals, punter Colton Schmidt may be the most underrated player on the team, as he leads the NFL in punts placed inside the opponents’ 20 yard line, and long snapper Garrison Sanborn has been invisible, meaning all his snaps so far have been accurate. The decision to keep a “long distance” kickoff specialist, Jordan Gay, has worked out alright so far. The “bomb squads” will face numerous challenges in the second half of the year, among them finding out how their young kickers, Schmidt and Gay, handle the Buffalo winter winds. Also, their top two kickoff returners, Spiller and Goodwin, have been injured and McKelvin has had to handle both jobs along with his cornerback duties. A third kickoff return option, Marcus Easley (also a top coverage gunner) has been hurt too. The Bills may want to try to find another option to handle those returns so McKelvin doesn’t get overworked.