This Sunday’s Super Bowl game between the New England Patriots and New York Giants looks like it has the makings of a great matchup. If the two teams can play a game anything close to their Super Bowl matchup of 2007, when the Giants ruined the Pats’ attempt at the first unbeaten season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins, it’ll be a game well worth watching. Both teams are solid organizations, well-coached by two disciples of Bill Parcells – Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin. Circumstances have changed for both teams going into this game. In the Super Bowl XLII matchup, the Patriots were a heavy favorite, boasting an offensive juggernaut led by Tom Brady, who had a record-breaking season. His main target that year was Randy Moss, who had the best season of his career. The Giants barely got into the playoffs, but got hot late in the regular season, and rode their momentum all the way into the big game. In the game itself, the Giants did something no other opponent did that year – they pressured Brady up the middle, took him out of the comfort zone he’d been in all year, and held the high voltage attack to 14 points in pulling off the biggest championship game upset since the Jets beat the Colts in Super Bowl III.
One of the strengths of the Giants going into this year’s game is their pass rush, which is one of the few in the NFL that’s capable of applying pressure with just the front four. The only player who isn’t on that front line from the 2007 team is Michael Strahan, who retired. In his place, however, is an emerging defensive star in Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants’ secondary is somewhat suspect, but the effectiveness of the defensive line can mask that. The Patriots are not the same high-powered offensive machine they were in 2007, but as long as Brady is directing the attack, they are a threat to win. Two players the Giants didn’t have to deal with in the earlier Super Bowl are tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who are matchup nightmares for any defense. Although Brady is seeking his fourth Super Bowl title, which would elevate his stature to the Joe Montana/Terry Bradshaw level, don’t overlook the skill of Eli Manning on the other side of the field. Manning won the 2007 matchup with Brady, and has matured into an even better passer and leader than he was then.
How much will the 2007 game affect this year’s Super Bowl? Considering that the Giants have only 16 holdovers from their Super Bowl winning roster of that year, and New England only 7, probably not much. My feeling is that the Giants, although they were a roller coaster team most of the season before catching fire late in the year, are a better team than they were then, while the Patriots are not. For that reason, I’m picking the Giants to win on Sunday, in a tough game in which New York’s more physical presence, on both sides of the ball, will be the difference.