Week four was the first week of the NFL’s young season to feature some upsets, and my week’s record of 9 correct and 7 wrong, after 3 good weeks of predictions, reflected that. My record after four weeks now stands at 44 right and 20 wrong. Here are my week 5 picks:
Philadelphia at Buffalo – Philly’s “Dream Team” is reeling with a 1-3 record. Although Buffalo’s offense is built perfectly to attack the major weaknesses in the Eagle defense, the Eagles need this game badly to stay afloat in their division and unfortunately for Bills’ fans, they will be the team that “circles the wagons” this week, riding a big game by Michael Vick against the Bills’ still-progressing defense to a hard fought win.
New Orleans at Carolina – Cam Newton has been tearing up defenses so far in his rookie season and the Saints’ defense hasn’t been very good, so this could be a spot for an upset, but I think Drew Brees will rise to the occasion and do whatever it takes to outscore Newton and the Panthers, giving New Orleans a big division win.
Oakland at Houston – the Raiders’ early-season schedule is a real gauntlet, and they face another big test on the road at Houston. The Texans are beginning to look like they mean business this year. Their win over the Steelers last week was impressive and they’ll keep up the positive momentum with a win here.
Kansas City at Indianapolis – this is a matchup of 2 teams having extremely disappointing seasons, mostly due to major injuries. Both teams put together good efforts last week, but coming off a short week after playing on Monday night, the Colts should struggle. The Chiefs get a big road win to keep their slim division race hopes alive.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville – this figures to be a low scoring game, since both teams have strong defenses and both start rookie quarterbacks. I’ll go with the Bengals to win on the road.
Arizona at Minnesota – it’s just a matter of time before the Vikings go to rookie Christian Ponder at QB over Donovan McNabb in what is now a lost season. The Cardinals need this game if they are to contend in the NFC West. I’ll take the Cards on the road.
Seattle at New York Giants – kudos to Tom Coughlin for getting his team focused early in the year, as the Giants have at least been consistent in their efforts, and now are in good shape in the NFC East standings. They are too good to blow this game, and will rout the Seahawks at home.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh – I have serious doubts about whether Pittsburgh’s defense is as strong as it usually is, and the Titans have been surprisingly good in 2011. However, playing at home, I feel the Steelers will figure out a way to squeeze out a win they need badly.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco – I am now officially on the 49ers bandwagon. New coach Jim Harbaugh has recognized the opportunity his club has in a very weak division and so far, with a surprising 3-1 record, they are seizing that opportunity. San Fran wins a close game at home.
San Diego at Denver – the Broncos were embarrassed by Green Bay last week and will be motivated at home in a division game, but the Chargers are the better team and will pull out the win.
New York Jets at New England – last season, the Pats crushed the Jets 45-3 late in the year, then Rex Ryan’s crew turned the tables in the playoffs and upset the Pats. New York’s defense has so far not lived up to expectations this season, and Tom Brady will light them up and lead New England to a big win.
Green Bay at Atlanta – rematch of last year’s playoff game, won by the Packers in a rout. Atlanta will be ready this time, but the Pack is still a better team and will win a close contest.
Chicago at Detroit – Lions’ first Monday night appearance in years, and it’s a big test on the road against the defending division champs. The home field advantage should be huge for Detroit, in fact, too big for Bear QB Jay Cutler to handle. The Lions win their fifth straight to stay even with Green Bay in the NFC North.