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 It’s been over a decade of futility for the Buffalo Bills, as instability in the front office and coaching  led to poor drafting, bad personnel decisions and just bad coaching on both sides of the ball. Last season, another regime change took place, as Buddy Nix was hired as general manager and Chan Gailey as head coach. Neither was a particularly popular choice, and how well the team does in 2011 will say a lot about the job this new management team is doing so far. It didn’t go well to start the season in 2010, as the Bills started 0-8, changed quarterbacks and traded their starting running back. To his credit, Gailey righted the ship, and the Bills played .500 ball, going 4-4 for the second half of the season. The hope is that the team will build on that improvement and finally start winning, but every new season is a different adventure in the NFL and nothing is guaranteed. Here is my season preview of the 2011 Buffalo Bills:

Front Office / Coaching

Buddy Nix has certainly been an active GM since taking over. Although fans have howled that the team has not pursued high-profile free agents, Nix has made moves that have remade the roster through both free agency and drafting. I’m not a fan of the trade of Lee Evans for a draft pick. I don’t see how that makes the Bills a better team in any way, shape or form. The move was supposedly made to clear playing time for all the great young receivers on the roster, but in my mind, when the time comes somewhere down the line, in a tough road game in November when the team needs a play to pull out a win in the fourth quarter, they will miss Evans. If this stable of young receivers suddenly all vanish at crunch time, then Nix should be held accountable.

The results of his first draft last year are mixed. There certainly weren’t any instant contributors among the draft picks. Many questioned the choice of C.J. Spiller early in the first round when the club already had 2 potential starting running backs, and Spiller still hasn’t shown anything other than occassional flashes. The new rule moving the kickoff to the 35 yard line, resulting in more touchbacks, will diminish his contributions even more. There were some players picked who showed potential, like Alex Carrington, Torrel Troup and certainly Arthur Moats, but they need to make big strides this year for the 2010 draft to be considered successful. Danny Batten, Marcus Easley and Ed Wang all return from injuries and all looked good in preseason games this year, so the draft could still turn out to be productive.  

As for coaching, Chan Gailey may not be the sexiest coach in the NFL but he appears to at least know what he is doing, unlike some of his predecessors of the last decade. His staff has now been together for a full season, and the addition of Dave Wannstedt as assistant head coach is a big plus. The defense is the unit that has to show the most improvement for the team to progress in 2011, and Wannstedt’s wealth of experience has to help.

Offense

This unit has one thing going into 2011 it didn’t have at the start of last season – stability. Ryan Fitzpatrick is firmly established as the starting quarterback, and Fred Jackson is undoubtedly the starting, every down running back. Additionally, Stevie Johnson has emerged as a real deep threat and Fitz’s favorite target, hopefully offsetting the loss of Evans. There isn’t necessarily stability along the offensive line, but with Eric Wood moving to his natural center position and Andy Levitre and Demetrius Bell a year more experienced, there’s a chance some stability can develop there. Adding versatile Brad Smith to the mix is a big plus. His biggest contribution will hopefully be adding some creativity which will help the team convert some third downs and keep drives alive, whether as a “wildcat” QB, slot receiver or even a rushing threat.

Defense

This unit was the main reason the team finished 4-12 last year. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t cover anybody, couldn’t pressure opposing QBs and couldn’t get off the field on third down. Since the unit was that bad, I don’t see the departures of players like Donte Whitner, Keith Ellison, Marcus Stroud and Paul Posluszny as great losses. This team needs to find some active defensive playmakers to replace guys who basically were bodies taking up space. The drafting of Marcell Dareus, signings of Shawne Merriman (if he stays healthy) and Nick Barnett, and the promotion of George Wilson to Whitner’s spot are all moves in that direction.

Special Teams

The Bills are solid in the kicking game with Ryan Lindell and punter Brian Moorman, and long snapper Garrison Sanborn was error-free for the most part. The new kickoff rule will diminish Spiller’s effectiveness, and actually Brad Smith may handle the kickoff return duties also. The punt return game should be good also with Roscoe Parrish returning from injury.

Here’s a position-by-position look at the Bills’ roster going into the 2011 season:

Quarterback

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

This is Ryan Fitzpatrick’s offense going into the season, and the jury is still out on him as far as how effective a starting NFL signal-caller he can become. He looked pretty good after winning the job last year and put up numbers not seen for this franchise since Jim Kelly was here, but there is still certainly plenty of room for improvement. He needs to cut down on costly turnovers, and the best thing to help him do that would be an improved offensive line. Tyler Thigpen, the new backup, didn’t look very good in preseason but is still an improvement over Brian Brohm from last year. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a chance Brad Smith is given to actually play under center as the #3 QB.

Running Back

RB C.J. Spiller

Fred Jackson is without a doubt the workhorse running back on this team, but for the offense to really be successful, they have to find ways to get C.J. Spiller in space to make plays also. The NFL season is a long grind and both backs have to be productive along the way. Jackson will be a key in how successful Fitzpatrick is as QB, just as Thurman Thomas was for Kelly. He needs to give the Bills a consistent running game to keep defenses honest, and is certainly capable of doing that. Rookie Johnny White made the roster mostly as a special teams player, but with injuries he needs to be ready to step in if needed. Fullback Corey McIntyre is an unsung leader on the team, and valuable as a lead blocker, special teamer and occasional receiver out of the backfield.

Receivers

WR Stevie Johnson

 

I’ve already stated that I feel the team will miss Evans’ veteran leadership at some point, but there’s also no doubting that Stevie Johnson rose to become  the Bills’  #1 wideout last year. He certainly has more chemistry with Fitzpatrick than Evans had. With Evans gone, Johnson will get much more attention from opposing defenses, so it’s important that the other wide receivers, most notably new starter Donald Jones, continue to develop. Jones showed signs last year that he can be a factor in the offense, but in my mind the most important wideout on the roster after Johnson is slot receiver David Nelson. As an undrafted free agent last year, he showed tremendous poise and ability and was a key third down receiver. Roscoe Parrish is also a dangerous weapon in the slot. Marcus Easley, drafted in 2010 but sidelined the entire year with an injury, gets his chance to make it in the NFL also. I have a hunch that Easley will eventually surpass Jones as a receiver on the club, once he gets more experience. Of the tight ends on the roster, veteran David Martin is the best known. Although not the starter, the former Packer is a good veteran presence to have on the squad. Scott Chandler, a late-season waiver pickup last year, is the starter, apparently earning the job with his blocking ability. The third tight end is newcomer Lee Smith, signed after being cut by New England. His being cut may not be an accurate measure of his talent, since the Pats are loaded at tight end.

Offensive Line

OT Demetrius Bell

The Bills will go nowhere this year if their defense doesn’t improve,  but the unit most under fire after that is clearly the offensive line. The line starts out 2011 with one advantage over last season – they have Ryan Fitzpatrick, with his quicker decision-making and better mobility – lined up behind them instead of statue Trent Edwards. The move of Eric Wood to center is a positive step, since it’s his natural position and he has so much greater strength and size than last year’s starter, Geoff Hangartner. Wood may be the only recent first round draft choice, other than Dareus, to not be a bust when all is said and done. Andy Levitre is solid at left guard and Demetrius Bell should continue to improve at the important left tackle spot. Bell may have come to training camp a little too secure in his position, but Gailey’s move of putting Levitre there at times sent a clear enough message, and Bell’s play since then seems to show he got that message. The right side of the line looks like a work in progress, with a couple of waiver wire pickups – Kraig Urbik and Eric Pears – manning the guard and tackle spots respectively. Rookie Chris Hairston should eventually be the long term answer at right tackle, but he needs to gain experience first. In the meantime, coach Gailey seems satisfied with the play of Pears. Chad Rinehart, who gave Levitre a battle for his spot in camp, and Colin Brown, a guy definitely flying under the radar, supply depth along the line. The fact that the club claimed lineman Sam Young off waivers from Dallas after initially completing the 53-man roster tells you they aren’t completely happy with the guys they have in place.

Defensive Line

DE Marcell Dareus

 

The Bills plan to play a “hybrid” 3-4 defensive scheme this year, which means there’ll be a lot of 4-3 mixed in. The club is carrying 6 defensive linemen, and the team looks like it will have a solid rotation there this year. Rookie Marcell Dareus is being counted on heavily to help shore up last season’s dreadful run defense, and even with zero NFL regular season experience he is a vast improvement over Marcus Stroud, who he replaces. Nose tackle Kyle Williams is a Pro Bowler, and the other end, Dwan Edwards, is a solid if unspectacular veteran player. Torrell Troup, who backs up Williams, looks like a player and big Kellen Heard looked good in preseason. Spencer Johnson, who backs up Edwards, is a solid player who makes plays in the chances he gets to play and in my opinion may be better than Edwards.

Linebackers

LB Shawne Merriman

 

Trying to figure out who the Bills’ starting linebackers were going to be this year was difficult, but a look at their depth chart clears things up somewhat. The starter at strong side backer is Chris Kelsay, who I’ve never been a big fan of. His backup is Alex Carrington, who was a defensive end last year but moved to this spot. I can easily see Carrington, if he develops at the pace he’s shown so far, replacing Kelsay in the lineup at some point this year. Kelsay is a poster child for the type of player I mentioned earlier that the team needs to replace – guys who basically line up and take up space. Whoever plays this spot, obviously, will be the player who is playing with his hand on the ground when the team goes 4-3. Veteran Andra Davis starts at the “middle” linebacker spot, newcomer Nick Barnett is the “weak side” starter while Shawne Merriman, the wild card in the success of  not only the defense but maybe the team this year, plays what the team calls the “jack” linebacker. Hopefully that means his responsibility will be to pursue the ball and “jack up” quarterbacks and running backs all season. There is lot of depth at linebacker on the roster, which is important considering Merriman’s track record of getting hurt. Arthur Moats, Kirk Morrison and rookies Chris White and Kelvin Sheppard are backups at inside linebacker, and seriously Moats and Morrison are both better than Davis now. Backing up the outside backers are Danny Batten and surprise rookie Robert Eddins. I feel that before the season is very old that the 4 starters at linebacker will probably change, and the changes will be for the better.

Defensive Backs

S George Wilson

 

Trying to evaluate the players in the Bills’ secondary last year was difficult considering they had to cover for a weak front 7 by trying to cover receivers for long periods due to little to no pressure on opposing QBs, and by making tackles in the run game downfield all day since the linebackers weren’t doing it. I feel that if the improved front seven do their jobs this year, the Bills have a chance to have an outstanding secondary. Terrence McGee is a playmaker when healthy, and at the other corner, Leodis McKelvin, while nowhere near the player he should be considering how high he was drafted, has enough athletic ability to make plays if there’s pressure on the quarterback. Drayton Florence will be on the field a lot against multiple receiver formations, and is a solid pro. Rookies Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers are the other backups, and it’s probably just a matter of time before Williams pushes McKelvin to the bench. It was a surprise to see Reggie Corner get cut since he seemed to be an able backup. Don’t be shocked if he surfaces with the New York Giants, who were devastated with injuries at cornerback in the preseason and whose defense is coordinated by former Bills’ interim coach Perry Fewell. The player who needs to return to form this year is safety Jairus Byrd, a huge playmaker in his rookie year who tailed off last season. In fact, Byrd may be the player most impacted if the front seven improves, allowing him the freedom to ball-hawk. At the other safety spot, replacing Whitner, again, not a terrible player but a massive underachiever, with George Wilson is a positive move. Wilson is a team leader and in less playing time as Whitner’s backup was a hungrier, more active difference-maker as a player. Veteran Bryan Scott is a solid, versatile backup at safety who can play multiple positions and contribute on special teams. The other backup, rookie Da’Norris Searcy, is a project with size and potential.

Overview

As I stated in a post sometime during the last season, the Bills, who had no identity for a decade, began to develop one as the year progressed. I called them “The Little Engine That Could” as they gradually improved into at least a competitive football team. That nickname fit them well as their key players and team leaders – Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson on offense, Kyle Williams, George Wilson, Arthur Moats on defense – were all players who worked their way to prominence the hard way. They were lower round draft picks, undrafted college free agents, rejects from other teams, all pulling together to try to turn around a losing program. They were all non-entities as individuals, but started to make a difference and started to win when they played together as a team. Hopefully they enter this season with the same attitude, although Jackson’s flareup over whether or not he was the starting RB in the preseason wasn’t helpful. He has to realize that it takes an entire roster over a long, grueling season to win, and the team has to be top priority over individual stats. I was encouraged by the attitude Stevie Johnson came into the season with. After his breakout 2010 season, he could’ve easily started campaigning for a new contract and threatened a holdout and just generally developed a big head, but instead announced he needed to get better and was coming in to do exactly that – improve and help the team win. There are little to no expectations for this team to do anything in 2011, especially in the division they’re in. If they can avoid major injury problems, stay on track and stay focused on the task at hand, which is to continue to build on the modest success they had in the second half of the 2010 season, they may be able to shock some people and even be a factor in the AFC East race.

For any Bills fans who need to get psyched a little more for the start of the season, click on the link below:

Buffalo Bills – Shout Song