Week 10 was the worst week yet for predictions, as I wound up below the .500 mark with 6 right and 8 wrong. Here are some comments made on the games picked last week:
Lions vs Bills – “I’m going to resist the temptation to pick Buffalo”. I did resist, and of course the Bills won.
Texans vs Jaguars – “Jags’ coach Del Rio always has his team motivated and playing well in important division games”. – I picked Houston and Del Rio’s motivated Jags won.
Cowboys vs Giants – “Cowboys should get somewhat of a bounce from the coaching change” – they did, and won, but I picked the Giants.
Patriots vs Steelers – “Normally the Pats are the type of team that rebounds strongly from a thrashing like they took last week” – yes, indeed they are, and they beat the Steelers. Unfortunately I picked Pittsburgh.
The moral of the story is sometimes you’re better off going with your initial gut reaction. For the season, my record now stands at 81 right and 62 wrong. Here are the week eleven choices:
Chicago at Miami – this week’s Thursday night game. The Dolphins lost 2 quarterbacks last week, and have a short week to get ready with third-stringer Tyler Thigpen. Although I think Thigpen will play well, I also think the Bears are beginning to get on a roll. Chicago wins a close, low scoring game.
Buffalo at Cincinnati – the Bills finally won last week, and amazingly the Bengals have only 2 wins this year. Cincinnati is a huge disappointment overall, but I think they’ll squeeze out a win at home.
Baltimore at Carolina – on paper this is a mismatch, and I believe the Ravens will win, but it may not be as one-sided of a game as the team’s records would indicate.
Detroit at Dallas – the Cowboys’ win over the Giants tells me one thing – that the Cowboy players, and interim coach Jason Garrett, should all be ashamed of the effort they gave Wade Phillips all year. Neither of these teams will have their starting QB, and even though I’d love to see the Lions win, I have to go with Dallas at home.
Cleveland at Jacksonville – both of these teams have overachieved all year. I’ll go with the Jaguars at home as they try to stay relevant in a tough division race.
Arizona at Kansas City – the Chiefs were brought back down to earth in Denver last week, but they’ll rebound at home and stay alive in what is now a tight AFC West race.
Green Bay at Minnesota – at his weekly press conferences, Brett Favre sounds like he really doesn’t want to be playing any longer, but I would expect his enthusiasm level to be high for this game – another chance at sticking it to his old team. Green Bay has been decimated by injuries, and although they are a better team I believe the Vikings will win this game.
Houston at New York Jets – the Texans look more and more like they will be also-rans again this season. The Jets have pulled out a couple of close wins on the road the last 2 weeks, and I believe they will ride that momentum to a big win here.
Oakland at Pittsburgh – the Raiders upset the Steelers last season and are a better team this year, but Pittsburgh will be sky high after losing at home to the Patriots last Sunday night. The Steeler defense will rebound and shut down Oakland and win this game pretty handily.
Washington at Tennessee – any thoughts that the Redskins were still viable contenders got squashed by Mike Vick and the Eagles on Monday night. Tennessee has quarterback issues but they can run the ball and should win this game at home, with Randy Moss having a bigger impact in the passing game this week also.
Seattle at New Orleans – the Saints are over their early season Super Bowl hangover now, and will put this game away early against a Seattle team that doesn’t travel well.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco – despite a disappointing start, I believe the 49ers still have a shot at the playoffs in the weak NFC West division. More importantly, the Niners still believe it too. Tampa will give them a fight but I think San Francisco is beginning to put it together and will win this game.
Atlanta at St. Louis – the Rams are a little too young for this situation. Atlanta needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the surging Saints in their division race and can’t afford to get tripped up here. I’ll pick the Falcons on the road in a close game.
Indianapolis at New England – Peyton Manning has been getting it done this year with smoke, mirrors and practice squad players, but the Pats will win here. Foxborough has always been Manning’s personal House of Horrors, even when he’s had his full complement of players on offense.
New York Giants at Philadelphia – the cream has risen to the top in the NFC East, and it’s turned out to be these 2 teams. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, especially the matchup of Vick vs. the Giants’ defense. I’ll go with the Eagles at home, riding the momentum of their big Monday night win over Washington.
Denver at San Diego – Phillip Rivers has had an amazing season passing the ball for the Chargers, and it looks like they are starting their annual late-season push to the playoffs. They’ll continue that push with a win at home over the unpredictable Broncos.
Oregon Ducks Statistics
December 20, 2010 at 4:21 pm
NFL teams like the Bears or the Steelers are unpredictable when it comes to a game. A lot of the time I feel that what is a determinant in a game are the historical data of both NFL teams. I comprise a lot of number crunching for these games because I sense that history usually give us what will happen in the future. Sometimes its difficult to know the winning team in the NFL. This is the main reason why I like using past trends. Just something to think about when trying to pick a winner.